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Biased enrollment of Medicare beneficiaries in HMO plans--implications for Medicare costs.

Policymakers assumed that the enrollment of Medicare beneficiaries in health maintenance organization (HMO) plans would generate significant cost savings for Medicare. The Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) calculates the reimbursement to HMOs per Medicare beneficiary on the basis of individual and community-specific characteristics. Estimates of the individual-specific profitability rate for enrolling an individual in a Medicare HMO risk plan suggest that the probability of enrollment in HMOs increases with a higher profitability score. The probability of not enrolling high-loss cases is found to be high, indicating that the biased selection in HMO plans actually increases the overall cost of running the Medicare program.

Adult↗

Chronic disease, functional health status, and demographics: a multi-dimensional approach to risk adjustment.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to develop unbiased risk-assessment models to be used for paying health plans on the basis of enrollee health status and use propensity. We explored the risk structure of adult employed HMO members using self-reported morbidities, functional status, perceived health status, and demographic characteristics. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Data were collected on a random sample of members of a large, federally qualified, prepaid group practice, hospital-based HMO located in the Pacific Northwest. STUDY DESIGN: Multivariate linear nonparametric techniques were used to estimate risk weights on demographic, morbidity, and health status factors at the individual level. The dependent variable was annual real total health plan expense for covered services for the year following the survey. Repeated random split-sample validation techniques minimized outlier influences and avoided inappropriate distributional assumptions required by parametric techniques. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: A mail questionnaire containing an abbreviated medical history and the RAND-36 Health Survey was administered to a 5 percent sample of adult subscribers and their spouses in 1990 and 1991, with an overall 44 percent response rate. Utilization data were extracted from HMO automated information systems. Annual expenses were computed by weighting all utilization elements by standard unit costs for the HMO. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Prevalence of such major chronic diseases as heart disease, diabetes, depression, and asthma improve prediction of future medical expense; functional health status and morbidities are each better than simple demographic factors alone; functional and perceived health status as well as demographic characteristics and diagnoses together yield the best prediction performance and reduce opportunities for selection bias. We also found evidence of important interaction effects between functional/perceived health status scales and disease classes. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported morbidities and functional health status are useful risk measures for adults. Risk-assessment research should focus on combining clinical information with social survey techniques to capitalize on the strengths of both approaches. Disease-specific functional health status scales should be developed and tested to capture the most information for prediction.

Adult↗

Comorbidity-based payment methodology for Medicaid enrollees with HIV/AIDS.

Managed care organizations (MCOs) may be incurring financial losses from persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) (PWHA). This study developed a statistical model to examine which specific comorbidities are important contributors to the variations in health care costs of PWHA. Individuals were classified into cost groups to simulate biased selection in MCOs. Capitation payments for various cost groups under different methodologies were compared. The statistical model closely matched payments with the actual costs of care. Capitation payments for HIV/AIDS enrollees based on this model will better protect MCOs than the traditional risk-adjustment methods.

Capitation Fee↗

HMO marketing and selection bias: are TEFRA HMOs skimming?

The research evidence indicates that health maintenance organizations (HMOs) participating in the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA) At-Risk Program tend to experience favorable selection. Although favorable selection might result from patient decisions, a common conjecture is that it can be induced by HMOs through their marketing activities. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between HMO marketing strategies and selection bias in TEFRA At-Risk HMOs. A purposive sample of 22 HMOs that were actively marketing their TEFRA programs was selected and data on organizational characteristics, market area characteristics, and HMO marketing decisions were collected. To measure selection bias in these HMOs, the functional health status of approximately 300 enrollees in each HMO was compared to that of 300 non-enrolling beneficiaries in the same area. Three dependent variables, reflecting selection bias at the mean, the low health tail, and the high health tail of the health status distribution were created. Weighted least squares regressions were then used to identify relationships between marketing elements and selection bias. Subject to the statistical limitations of the study, our conclusion is that it is doubtful that HMO marketing decisions are responsible for the prevalence of favorable selection in HMO enrollment. It also appears unlikely that HMOs were differentially targeting healthy and unhealthy segments of the Medicare market.

Advertising↗

Epilepsy and insurance in the UK: an exploratory survey of the experiences of people with epilepsy.

We investigated problems in obtaining insurance as reported by people with epilepsy who were members of a major United Kingdom patient organisation. Information was collected via questionnaires mailed to a random sample of the membership, 347 of whom replied. Overall, 62% of respondents reported experiencing a problem obtaining insurance coverage (increased premiums, restricted coverage, or outright refusal). Thirty-six percent of respondents reported having been refused one or more types of insurance on the grounds of their epilepsy. Although the low response rate to the study represents an important source of bias, extrapolation from our figures suggests a problem prevalence rate of at least 10%. Adoption of an evidence-based and standardised approach to informing assessments of risk is vital if insurance companies are to provide fair and reasonable terms for insurance coverage to their clients with epilepsy.

Adult↗

Analysis of selection effects in New York City's Medicaid managed care population prior to mandatory enrollment.

It is becoming increasingly apparent that over the next several years the majority of Medicaid patients in many states will become enrolled in managed care plans, some voluntarily, but most as the result of mandatory initiatives. An important issue related to this development is the extent to which this movement to managed care is accompanied by serious selection effects, either across the board during the phase in or among individual plans or plan types with full-scale implementation. This paper examines selection effects in New York City between 1993 and 1997 during the voluntary enrollment period prior to implementation of mandatory enrollment pursuant to a Section 1115 waiver. No substantial selection bias was documented between patients entering managed care and those remaining in the fee-for-service system among the largest rate groups, although some selection effect was found among plans and plan types (with investor-owned plans enrolling patients with lower prior utilization and expenses).

Adolescent↗

Health benefits offer rates: is there a nonresponse bias?

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a nonresponse bias exists in the offer rate for health benefits in firms with fewer than 50 workers and to present a simple adjustment to correct for observed bias. DATA SOURCES: The 2003 Employer Health Benefits Survey (EHBS) conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research and Educational Trust, and a follow-up survey of nonrespondents to the 2003 EHBS. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a follow-up survey to the 2003 EHBS to collect health benefits offering data from firms with fewer than 50 workers. We used McNemar's test to verify that the follow-up survey provided results comparable to the EHBS, and t-tests were used to determine nonresponse bias. We applied a simple weighting adjustment to the EHBS. DATA COLLECTION: The data for both the EHBS and the follow-up survey were collected by the same survey research firm. The EHBS interviews the person most knowledgeable about the firm's health benefits, while the follow-up survey interviews the first person who answers the telephone whether they are the most knowledgeable or not. Principal Findings. Firms with 3-9 workers were more likely to exhibit a bias than were firms with 10-24 workers and 25-49 workers. Although the calculated bias for each size category was not significant, there is sufficient evidence to warrant caution when reporting offer rates. CONCLUSIONS: Survey nonresponse in the EHBS produces an upward bias on estimates for the offer rates of small firms. Although not significant, this upward bias is because of nonresponse by small firms that do not offer health benefits. Our research is limited in that we only control for differences in the size of the firm.

Adult↗

Switching costs, price sensitivity and health plan choice.

We investigate the extent to which sensitivity to health plan premiums differs across individuals according to characteristics related to the cost of switching plans. Our results indicate substantial variation in price sensitivity related to expected health care costs: younger, healthier employees are between two and four times more sensitive to price than employees who are older and who have been recently hospitalized or diagnosed with cancer. We also find evidence of status quo bias: estimated premium elasticities are significantly higher for new hires than for incumbent employees. Simulations combining our results with actuarial data illustrate the cost implications of risk-related differences in price elasticity.

Adult↗

An analysis of selectivity bias in the Medicare AAPCC (adjusted average per capita cost).

Using econometric models of endogenous sample selection, we examine possible payment bias to Medicare Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA) risk health maintenance organizations (HMOs) in the Twin Cities in 1988. We do not find statistically significant evidence of favorable HMO selection. In fact, the sign of the selection term indicates adverse selection into HMOs. This finding is interesting, in view of the fact that three of the five risk HMOs in the study have since converted to non-risk contracts.

Aged↗

Do Medicare HMOs still reduce health services use after controlling for selection bias?

This study models the relationship between Medicare beneficiary decisions to join Medicare HMOs and subsequent health services utilization. The relationship between health plan choice and utilization is thought to be endogenous because of favorable selection into HMOs. Previous studies found significantly lower inpatient utilization among Medicare HMO enrollees than among nonenrollees, but lacked strong controls for selection bias. Thus, a firm conclusion could not be drawn as to whether the observed differences were attributable to the HMO practice setting or to baseline differences in the illness profiles of the two groups studied. The present study uses simultaneous equations methods, including discrete factor estimation, to test the effect of Medicare HMOs on utilization when strong controls for selection bias are imposed. The model was run on a panel of 1993-1996 data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, supplemented with linked data on Medicare HMO characteristics and area supply characteristics. The study found that even when favorable selection is controlled for, Medicare HMOs significantly reduce both the probability of hospitalization and the number of inpatient days used by those who are hospitalized. Medicare HMOs do not, however, appear to reduce the use of physician services.

Aged↗

Undercontribution bias in health care spending account decisions.

Results from this work describe 239 responses to a mailed survey regarding employee benefits decisions at a large eastern university. The primary objective of this work is to test for an undercontribution bias in health care financing decisions. The results establish the existence of an undercontribution bias in both actual employee decisions and hypothetical flexible spending account contribution decisions. We describe this bias within the context of related biases including loss aversion, mental accounting, status quo and omission biases. Surprisingly, we find a significant order effect in this study and posit that preference construction in this context is an active, reference-dependent process. In addition, results from this work demonstrate the endogenous nature of health care flexible spending account expenditures. The results have important implications both for the descriptive framework of and the normative solution to the flexible spending account contribution decision.

Community Participation↗

Understanding biased selection in Medicare HMOs.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the extent of favorable health maintenance organization (HMO) selection for a longitudinal cohort of Medicare beneficiaries, examine whether the extent of favorable selection varies with the degree of Medicare HMO market penetration in a county, and explain conflicting findings in the literature on favorable HMO selection. DATA SOURCES: A panel of 1992-1996 data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS), supplemented with linked data from the Area Resource File and Medicare administrative datasets. STUDY DESIGN: Using random effects probit estimation, we model a beneficiary's HMO enrollment status as a function of self-reported health status and Medicare HMO market penetration. DATA EXTRACTION METHODS: The MCBS data for beneficiaries residing in states served by Medicare HMOs in 1992-1996 were linked by county to the supplementary datasets. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We find that favorable selection persists in the cohort over time on some, but not all, measures. We find no substantial association between favorable HMO selection and HMO market penetration. We find that conflicting findings in the literature on favorable HMO selection may be explained by several methodological choices, including the choice of health status measure and the structure of the sample. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support further risk adjustment of the adjusted average per capita cost (AAPCC) payment formula.

Aged↗

Selection bias in TEFRA at-risk HMOs.

The issue of selection bias was investigated using data from 22 HMOs who are enrolling Medicare beneficiaries under Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA) at-risk contracts. The study differs from previously published analyses of this issue in that it deals with the current Medicare risk program (TEFRA) rather than with earlier Demonstration Programs; as an indicator of selection bias, it utilizes beneficiary functional health status at enrollment; and it examines selection not only at the mean of the health status distribution, but at the two tails (very disabled, very able) as well. For each of the participating HMOs, the functional health status of recent Medicare enrollees was compared with that of a control group of randomly chosen fee-for-service beneficiaries. None of the HMOs experienced adverse selection, whether measured in terms of overall (mean) health status of enrollees or in terms of the proportion of the very disabled population that chose to join. Nine of the 22 HMOs were considered to have experienced favorable selection on the basis of the mean health status of new enrollees. In addition, ten more HMOs were found to have experienced favorable selection in one or both tails of the health status distribution. Although a specific cause for the observed enrollment patterns is not identified, speculation is made on factors that may or may not contribute. Evidence suggests that beneficiary self-selection is probably a more important explanation of these patterns than purposeful actions of HMOs to discourage enrollment by sicker beneficiaries (i.e., "skimming").

Aged↗

Specialty bias in obstetric care for high-risk socioeconomic groups in Maine.

From 1982 to 1984, 46,501 infants were born in Maine hospitals in 46,286 deliveries, of which 6,343 were born to women on state Medicaid (Title 19), and 6,307 were born to women with no health insurance. In comparison with others born in Maine during those years, more infants in these presumed low socioeconomic groups died, were transferred immediately to other hospitals, had low birthweights, or were readmitted to a hospital within 30 days of birth. Of all deliveries, 105 family physicians or general practitioners performed 22 percent, 82 obstetricians performed 69 percent, and 16 osteopathic physicians performed 5 percent; but of Medicaid deliveries, obstetricians delivered only 59 percent, while family physicians-general practitioners and osteopaths did commensurately more. The decreased proportion of Medicaid patients cared for by obstetricians was especially prominent in Maine's urban hospital service areas. Pediatricians, on the other hand, cared for the same proportion of Medicaid children as they did all children in all hospital service areas in the state. The distribution of low socioeconomic, higher obstetric risk patient groups among various medical specialties as demonstrated in these data should be considered by health planners, malpractice insurers, and health insurers including state Medicaid programs.

Catchment Area, Health↗

Disenrollment from Medicare HMOs.

BACKGROUND: Since the program's inception, there has been great interest in determining whether beneficiaries who enter and subsequently leave Medicare health maintenance organizations (HMOs) are more or less costly than those remaining in fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare. OBJECTIVES: To examine whether relatively high-cost beneficiaries disenroll from Medicare HMOs (disenrollment bias) and whether disenrollment bias varies by Medicare HMO market characteristics. In addition, we compare rates of surgical procedures and hospitalizations for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions for disenrollees and continuing FFS beneficiaries. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of 1994 Medicare data. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: Medicare beneficiaries were first sampled from the 124 counties with at least 1000 Medicare HMO enrollees. From this pool, HMO disenrollees and a sample of continuing FFS beneficiaries were drawn. The FFS beneficiaries were assigned dates of "pseudodisenrollment." Expenditures and inpatient service use were compared for 6 months after disenrollment or pseudodisenrollment. RESULTS: The HMO disenrollees were no more likely than the continuing FFS beneficiaries to have positive total expenditures (Part A plus Part B) or Part B expenditures in the first 6 months after disenrollment. However, disenrollees were more likely to have Part A expenditures. Among beneficiaries with spending, disenrollees had higher total and Part B expenditures than continuing FFS beneficiaries. Moreover, the disparity in total and Part B spending between disenrollees and continuing FFS beneficiaries increased with HMO market penetration. Although Part A spending was higher for disenrollees with spending, it was not sensitive to changes in market share. The HMO disenrollees received more surgical procedures and were hospitalized for more of the ambulatory care-sensitive conditions than the FFS beneficiaries. CONCLUSIONS: On several measures, Medicare HMOs experienced favorable disenrollment relative to continuing FFS beneficiaries as recently as 1994, which increased as HMO market share increased.

Aged↗

Mental health care utilization in prepaid and fee-for-service plans among depressed patients in the Medical Outcomes Study.

OBJECTIVE: We compare mental health utilization in prepaid and fee-for-service plans and analyze selection biases. DATA SOURCE: Primary data were collected every six months over a two-year interval for a panel of depressed patients participating in the Medical Outcomes Study, an observational study of adults in competing systems of care in three urban areas (Boston, Chicago, and Los Angeles). STUDY DESIGN: Patients visiting a participating clinician at baseline were screened for depression, followed by a telephone interview, which included the depression section of the NIMH Diagnostic Interview Schedule. Patients with current or past lifetime depressive disorder and those with depressed mood and three other lifetime symptoms were eligible for this analysis. We analyze mental health utilization based on periodic patient self-report. ANALYTIC METHODS: We use two-part models because of the presence of both nonuse and skewness of use. Standard errors are corrected nonparametrically for correlations across observations due to clustered sampling within participating physicians and repeated observations on the same individual. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The average number of mental health visits was 35-40 percent lower in the prepaid system, adjusted and unadjusted for observed differences in patient characteristics, including health status. Utilization differences were concentrated among patients of psychiatrists, with only minor differences among patients of general medical providers. Analyzing the effect of switches that patients make between payment systems over time, we found some evidence of adverse selection into fee-for-service plans based on baseline utilization, but not based on utilization at the end of the study. In particular, after adjusting for observed patient characteristics and health status, patients switching out of prepaid plans had higher baseline use than predicted, whereas patients switching out of fee-for-service had lower use than predicted. Switching itself appears to be related to an immediate decline in utilization and was not followed by an increase or "catch-up" effect. CONCLUSIONS: The absence of the commonly found "catch-up" effect following switching and the significant decrease in utilization during the switching period suggests an interruption in care that does not occur for patients staying within a payment system. This finding emphasizes the need for integrating new patients quickly into a system, an issue that should not be neglected in the current policy discussion.

Boston↗

HIV infection and AIDS in the public health and health care systems: the role of law and litigation.

The AIDS Litigation Project has reviewed nearly 600 reported cases involving individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the federal and state courts in the United States between 1991 and 1997. Cases were identified through a federal and 50-state computer and library search. An important subset of litigation relates to HIV/AIDS in the public health and health care systems, since the law affects health care institutions and professionals, patients, and public health policy in America. This subset of HIV/AIDS litigation includes testing and reporting; privacy, the duty to warn, and the right to know; physician standards of care in prevention and treatment; and discrimination and access to health care. In broad terms, the review demonstrates a reliance on voluntary testing and protection of patient privacy through HIV-specific statutes and the common law. Negligence with potential civil and criminal liability has been alleged in cases of erroneous or missed diagnosis of HIV infection. In the first AIDS case to be considered by the Supreme Court, the Court will decide whether patients with asymptomatic HIV infection are protected under the Americans With Disabilities Act. Considerable progress has been made, both socially and legally, during the first 2 decades of the epidemic, but much still needs to be accomplished to protect privacy, prevent discrimination, and promote tolerance.

AIDS Serodiagnosis↗