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PubMed2003

The effect of cigarette prices on youth smoking.

Prior economic research provides mixed evidence on the impact of cigarette prices on youth smoking. This paper empirically tests the effects of various price measures on youth demand for cigarettes using data collected in a recent nationally representative survey of 17 287 high school students. In addition to commonly used cigarette price measures, the study also examined the effect of price as perceived by the students. This unique information permits the study of the effect of teen-specific price on cigarette demand. The analysis employed a two-part model of cigarette demand based on a model developed by Cragg (1971) in which the propensity to smoke and the intensity of the smoking habit are modeled separately. The results confirm that higher cigarette prices, irrespective of the way they are measured, reduce probability of youth cigarette smoking. There is also some evidence of negative price effect on smoking intensity, but it is sensitive to the price measure used in the model. The largest impact on cigarette demand has the teen-specific, perceived price of cigarettes.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Double discounting of QALYs.

Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) calculated from time tradeoff (TTO) based preferences have a time preference component. To impose a conventional discount rate on these implicitly discounted QALYs introduces some degree of double discounting. The purpose of this study was to determine the magnitude of the double discounting effect and the effectiveness of a suggested method for avoiding double discounting in a TTO-based QALY model. Our analysis used holistic and composite preference scores obtained with the TTO technique in a prior study of four hypothetical treatment paths in type 2 diabetes. Discounted composite preference scores were significantly discrepant from holistic preference scores. Adjusting TTO-based quality weights prior to external discounting reduced the discrepancy only slightly. Since time preference effects may vary with health state context, the double discounting effect needs further investigation.

Attitude to Health↗
PubMed2002

Revealed preference valuation compared to contingent valuation: radon-induced lung cancer prevention.

This paper explores and compares two tools of economic valuation, revealed preference and contingent valuation, with the purpose of ultimately informing the use of two methods of economic evaluation, CEA and CBA. The valuation methods are applied to empirical data for radon-induced lung cancer prevention. However, only the single bound CV and the subjective revealed preference estimates have overlapping confidence intervals, indicating that they do have external validity as assessed by convergent validity. The revealed preference subjective risk valuation was (180 pounds sterling (144 pounds sterling, 247 pounds sterling)) and the single bounded contingent valuation estimate was (269 pounds sterling (201 pounds sterling, 343 pounds sterling)).

Air Pollutants, Radioactive↗
PubMed2003

Estimation of the determinants of household health care expenditures in Nepal with controls for endogenous illness and provider choice.

This paper uses the Nepal Living Standards Survey, a nationally representative sample of households from 1996, to investigate the determinants of household out-of-pocket health expenditures. The analysis uses a multi-equation joint estimation to control for endogeneity of sickness and provider choice. The results of this analysis indicate several interesting findings. First, common unobserved factors were found to be statistically significant determinants of illness, choice of provider, and health expenditures, and may cause bias to parameter estimates if not controlled. Second, the income elasticity is estimated to be 1.10, with income having both a direct effect on health expenditure, and an indirect effect through likelihood of illness and the type of provider that is chosen. Third, housing and sanitary conditions were found to have a substantial effect on illness, and as a result, out-of-pocket health care expenditures. Fourth, despite the fact that urban, ill individuals who seek care are more likely to utilize care in more expensive settings, average health care expenditure among the urban sample was found to be substantially lower than among the rural sample, partly due to a lower likelihood of reporting illnesses and injuries and of using any type of health care provider.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Design techniques for stated preference methods in health economics.

This paper discusses different design techniques for stated preference surveys in health economic applications. In particular, we focus on different design techniques, i.e. how to combine the attribute levels into alternatives and choice sets, for choice experiments. Design is a vital issue in choice experiments since the combination of alternatives in the choice sets will determine the degree of precision obtainable from the estimates and welfare measures. In this paper we compare orthogonal, cyclical and D-optimal designs, where the latter allows expectations about the true parameters to be included when creating the design. Moreover, we discuss how to obtain prior information on the parameters and how to conduct a sequential design procedure during the actual experiment in order to improve the precision in the estimates. The designs are evaluated according to their ability to predict the true marginal willingness to pay under different specifications of the utility function in Monte Carlo simulations. Our results suggest that the designs produce unbiased estimations, but orthogonal designs result in larger mean square error in comparison to D-optimal designs. This result is expected when using correct priors on the parameters in D-optimal designs. However, the simulations show that welfare measures are not very sensitive if the choice sets are generated from a D-optimal design with biased priors.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2003

Measuring the value of time for methadone maintenance clients: willingness to pay, willingness to accept, and the wage rate.

Three measures of the value of time - willingness to pay (WTP) for a reduction in travel time, willingness to accept (WTA) a monetary compensation to forgo it, and the wage rate - are evaluated and compared. WTP and WTA were estimated from the two-part regressions of time price, using contingent valuation methods with primary survey data. Systematic differences are found in comparisons of WTP and WTA with the wage rate.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Conjoint analysis. The cost variable: an Achilles' heel?

This paper seeks to enlighten the readers on the potential complexities involved in including cost variables in conjoint analysis, with the aim of emphasising that interpretation of implicit WTP values should be tackled with caution. To illustrate the potential pitfalls, a large data set from a recent Danish study is applied. The data consists of 1991 interviews in which participants are required to perform three discrete choice tasks regarding choice of hospitals, and three choice tasks involving health-care systems in general. Model comparisons are performed which test the effect of (1) the cost range applied and (2) the effect of including a dummy variable to represent the utility associated with payment per se. A wider cost range including higher payments is associated with lower parameter weights associated with the payment variable, and thus increased WTP values. Including a dummy variable to explain utility associated with payment per se has significant effects on the model incurring some of the other variables to become insignificant, and others to change sign. Results suggest that inclusion of a two-dimensional structure to explain the relationship between cost and utility may avoid erroneous conclusions and give rise to significant changes in implicit WTP estimates.

Attitude to Health↗
PubMed2003

Construction of the contingent valuation market in health care: a critical assessment.

Contingent valuation (CV) has been criticised for being too hypothetical, with expressed values bearing little relation to actual values. The magnitude of this divergence, however, depends upon how realistic and believable the contingent market is. This paper presents an overview of five key aspects in the construction of the contingent market: (i) scenario development and presentation; (ii) payment vehicle; (iii) expression of risk; (iv) time period of valuation; and (v) survey administration. CV studies in health care since 1985, totalling 111, are critically reviewed with respect to these five aspects. It is concluded that CV studies in health care have performed poorly in the construction, specification and presentation of the contingent market, and that there has been little, if any, improvement in this respect over the last 15 years. Suggestions are made concerning why this may be the case, and how the construction of the contingent market may be improved in future.

Attitude to Health↗
PubMed2003

Estimating the monetary value of health care: lessons from environmental economics.

In the recent past, considerable effort in health economics has been made on applying stated preference methods such as contingent valuation and choice experiments. Despite this increased use, there is still considerable scepticism concerning the value of these approaches. The application of contingent valuation in environmental economics has a long history and has been widely accepted. Whilst choice experiments were introduced to the environmental and health economics literature at a similar time, the wider acceptance of monetary measures of benefit in environmental economics has meant that they have also been more widely applied. The purpose of this paper is to identify some of the key issues and debates that have taken place in the environmental economics literature, summarise the state of the art with respect to these issues, and consider how health economists have addressed these issues. Important areas for future research in health economics are identified.

Attitude to Health↗
PubMed2003

Willingness-to-pay for community-based insurance in Burkina Faso.

PURPOSE: To study the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a proposed community-based health insurance (CBI) scheme in order to provide information about the relationship between the premium that is required to cover the costs of the scheme and expected insurance enrollment levels. In addition, factors that influence WTP were to be identified. METHODS: Data were collected from a household survey using a two-stage cluster sampling approach, with each household having the same probability of being selected. Interviews were conducted with 2414 individuals and 705 household heads. The take-it-or-leave-it (TIOLI) and the bidding game were used to elicit WTP. RESULTS: The average individual was willing to pay 2384 (elicited by the TIOLI) or 3191 (elicited by the bidding game) CFA (3.17 US dollars or 4.25 US dollars) to join CBI for him/herself. The head of household agreed to pay from 6448 (elicited by the TIOLI) or 9769 (elicited by the bidding game) CFA (8.6 US dollars or 13.03 US dollars) to join the health insurance scheme for his/her household. These results were influenced by household and individual ability-to-pay, household and individual characteristics, such as age, sex and education. The two methods yielded similar patterns of estimated WTP, in that higher WTP was obtained for higher income level, higher previous medical expenditure, higher education, younger people and males. A starting point bias was found in the case of the bidding game. CONCLUSIONS: Both TIOLI and bidding game methods can elicit a value of WTP for CBI. The value elicited by the bidding game is higher than by the TIOLI, but the two approaches yielded similar patterns of estimated WTP. WTP information can be used for setting insurance premium. When setting the premiums, it is important to consider differences between the real market and the theoretical one, and between the WTP and the cost of benefits package. The beneficiaries of CBI should be enrolled at the level of households or villages in order to protect vulnerable groups such as women, elders and the poor.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Threats to the estimation of benefit: are preference elicitation methods accurate?

Stated preference methods are used to estimate the value that people place on health care. The data that emerges from these studies is used to guide health policy. However, relatively little is known about how individuals make decisions in a preference elicitation task. Two methods (willingness to pay and conjoint analysis) are considered within the context of the literature from psychology (and also environmental economics) regarding how people construct preferences, process information, and make decisions. There is substantial evidence that individuals employ heuristics (cognitive shortcuts) in order to simplify tasks they are presented with. The use of heuristics implies that people ignore much of the information they are presented with and make decisions which would not be considered rational in the economic sense. These stated preference methods assume that individuals trade between the different attributes of a good or service when making decisions - an assumption that other theories predict is wrong. The implications of this are discussed.

Attitude to Health↗
PubMed2003

Catastrophe and impoverishment in paying for health care: with applications to Vietnam 1993-1998.

This paper presents and compares two threshold approaches to measuring the fairness of health care payments, one requiring that payments do not exceed a pre-specified proportion of pre-payment income, the other that they do not drive households into poverty. We develop indices for 'catastrophe' that capture the intensity of catastrophe as well as its incidence and also allow the analyst to capture the degree to which catastrophic payments occur disproportionately among poor households. Measures of poverty impact capturing both intensity and incidence are also developed. The arguments and methods are empirically illustrated with data on out-of-pocket payments from Vietnam in 1993 and 1998. This is not an uninteresting application given that 80% of health spending in that country was paid out-of-pocket in 1998. We find that the incidence and intensity of 'catastrophic' payments - both in terms of pre-payment income as well as ability to pay - were reduced between 1993 and 1998, and that both incidence and intensity of 'catastrophe' became less concentrated among the poor. We also find that the incidence and intensity of the poverty impact of out-of-pocket payments diminished over the period in question. Finally, we find that the poverty impact of out-of-pocket payments is primarily due to poor people becoming even poorer rather than the non-poor being made poor, and that it was not expenses associated with inpatient care that increased poverty but rather non-hospital expenditures.

Catastrophic Illness↗
PubMed2003

If the price is right: vagueness and values clarification in contingent valuation.

The use of willingness to pay to value the benefits of health care is increasing. Much of this work assumes that health preferences are well formed or 'complete' and readily revealed if the right question is asked in the right way. We examined this assumption, seeking evidence in a mixed-methods study that explored the meaning and implications of vague responses to a payment-scale based willingness to pay exercise.One-half of the sample said that their vagueness meant that their maximum willingness to pay was actually greater than the amount that they had previously said it was. Thirty percent agreed that they would probably pay pound 10 more than a sum that they had previously said they would most definitely not pay, if they found this to be the cost of the vaccine. Interview data supported the view that the payment scale had failed to elicit the maximum willingness to pay and that some participants used the information on cost to help clarify their values, in contrast to the theory underpinning willingness to pay. The results suggest a need to consider values-clarification in health economic evaluations.

Attitude to Health↗
PubMed2003

Willingness to pay and size of health benefit: an integrated model to test for 'sensitivity to scale'.

A key theoretical prediction concerning willingness to pay is that it is positively correlated with benefit size and is assessed by testing the 'sensitivity to scale (scope)'. 'External' (between-sample) sensitivity tests are usually regarded as less powerful than 'internal' (within-subject) tests. However, the latter may suffer from 'anchoring' effects. This paper studies the statistical power of these tests by questioning the distributional assumption of empirical data. We present an integrated model to capture both internal and external variations, while controlling for sample heterogeneity, applied to data from a survey estimating the value of reducing symptom-days. Results indicate that once data is properly transformed, WTP becomes 'scale sensitive' and consistent with diminishing marginal utility theory.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Willingness to pay for a QALY.

A willingness to pay (WTP) per quality-adjusted-life year (QALY) of DKK 88,000 was estimated on the basis of elicited preferences for health states. The WTP per QALY estimate presented here differs considerably from that implied in contingent valuation studies, suggesting that WTP for reducing risk of death is based on other preference structures than is ex post WTP for improvements in quality of life. Results further suggest that different preference structures may exist when respondents are faced with WTP questions in which case elimination of minor health problems are associated with negligible utility.

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗
PubMed2004

Evidence of range bias in contingent valuation payment scales.

The payment scale format has been widely used in willingness-to-pay studies in health care. Concerns have been expressed that the format is, in theory, prone to range bias, although this proposition has not been tested directly. We report the findings of a contingent valuation questionnaire study of colorectal cancer screening, wherein different subjects were provided with payment scales of two different lengths. Whilst the long-scale instrument included scale values up to pound 1000, the short-scale version extended only to pound 100. After controlling for inter-sample differences in, for example, income, education and health behaviour, it emerged that the long-scale instrument produced a mean willingness to pay more than 30% higher than that resulting from the short-scale version. We believe our findings to be strongly supportive of the likelihood of range bias in payment-scale instruments, with important consequences for the estimation of both average valuation and consumer surplus.

Aged↗
PubMed2004

A comparison of stated preference methods for estimating monetary values.

This paper presents a comparison of willingness to pay (WTP) estimates generated from a dichotomous choice (DC) contingent valuation experiment and a choice experiment (CE). The study was conducted with subjects undergoing assisted reproductive techniques in the Grampian area of Scotland. Subjects first completed a DC WTP questionnaire. They were sent a CE questionnaire two months later. Welfare estimates for the DC WTP study and CE were not significantly different. Important research questions are raised concerning the validity of the various approaches to estimating WTP.

Financing, Personal↗
PubMed2004

A utility-theoretic approach to the aggregation of willingness to pay measured in decomposed scenarios: development and empirical test.

For cost-benefit analysis, health technologies with multiple effects should be valued in a single scenario by a holistic willingness-to-pay (WTP) measure. Recent studies instead used decomposed scenarios in which respondents report their WTP for each individual effect. Evidence can be found that the sum of such decomposed WTPs overestimates the holistic WTP, i.e. the holistic WTP is sub-additive. This sum of decomposed WTPs can lead to wrong conclusions on the efficiency of health technologies. This is also relevant in decision making about new technologies that are valued separately in different surveys. To date, no utility-theoretical and empirically validated aggregation function for decomposed WTPs exists. Within an expected utility model, this paper identifies as a reason for sub-additivity--beside risk aversion with respect to wealth--a negative influence of better health on the marginal utility of wealth, i.e. marginal utility of wealth is smaller in better health states. Assuming mutual utility independence of health and wealth, a theoretically founded aggregation function covering these two impacts is derived. In a contingent valuation study, 92 patients with diabetes were asked to state their WTP for reductions of the risk of several diabetic complications in decomposed as well as in holistic scenarios. The patients had preferences with a significant negative influence of health on the marginal utility of wealth. Sub-additivity occurred and theoretically founded aggregation could considerably lower the degree of overestimation. These results suggest that the theoretically founded aggregation function might reduce problems of sub-additivity that can be economically relevant. Further empirical testing of the approach is indicated.

Aged↗