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PubMed2000

Drought disturbance from climate change: response of United States forests.

Predicted changes in climate have raised concerns about potential impacts on terrestrial forest ecosystem productivity, biogeochemical cycling, and the availability of water resources. This review summarizes characteristics of drought typical to the major forest regions of the United States, future drought projections, and important features of plant and forest community response to drought. Research needs and strategies for coping with future drought are also discussed. Notwithstanding uncertainties surrounding the magnitude and direction of future climate change, and the net impact on soil water availability to forests, a number of conclusions can be made regarding the sensitivity of forests to future drought. The primary response will be a reduction in net primary production and stand water use, which are driven by reductions in stomatal conductance. Mortality of small stature plants (i.e. seedlings and saplings) is a likely consequence of severe drought. In comparison, deep rooting and substantial reserves of carbohydrates and nutrients make mature trees less susceptible to water limitations caused by severe or prolonged drought. However, severe or prolonged drought may render even mature trees more susceptible to insects or disease. Drought-induced reductions in decomposition rates may cause a buildup of organic material on the forest floor, with ramifications for fire regimes and nutrient cycling. Although early model predictions of climate change impacts suggested extensive forest dieback and species migration, more recent analyses suggest that catastrophic dieback will be a local phenomenon, and changes in forest composition will be a relatively gradual process. Better climate predictions at regional scales, with a higher temporal resolution (months to days), coupled with carefully designed, field-based experiments that incorporate multiple driving variables (e.g. temperature and CO2), will advance our ability to predict the response of different forest regions to climate change.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Catastrophic wind damage to North American forests and the potential impact of climate change.

Catastrophic winds from tornadoes and downbursts are a major cause of natural disturbance in forests of eastern North America, accounting for thousands of hectares of disturbed area annually. Wind disturbance shows substantial regional variation, decreasing from the mid-west to the east and from the south-east to New England. In terms of the relative importance among these types of storms, more forest damage results from tornadoes in the south-east and mid-west, while downbursts are the most important type of wind disturbance in the Great Lakes area. Downbursts vary widely in size, but large ones can damage thousands of hectares, while tornadoes are much smaller, seldom affecting more than several hundred hectares. Tornadoes cause the most severe wind disturbances. Site characteristics such as physiography, soil moisture, and soil depth; stand characteristics like density and canopy roughness; and tree characteristics such as size, species, rooting depth, and wood strength, are the factors most recognized as influencing damage patterns. The consequences of wind damage to forests, such as change in environmental conditions, density, size structure, species composition, and successional status, occur on both immediate (hours-to-days) and long-term (months-to-decades) time scales. Most wind disturbances result in the post-disturbance vegetation being comprised of surviving canopy trees, and varying amounts of sprouts, released understory stems, and new seedlings. Stand size structure is usually reduced, and successional status of a forest is often advanced. Diversity can be either increased or decreased, depending on the measure of abundance used to calculate diversity. Because tornadoes and downbursts are in part products of thermodynamic climatic circumstances, they may be affected by anticipated changes in climatic conditions as the 21st century progresses. However, the current understanding of tornado and downburst formation from supercell storms is very incomplete, and climate-change model predictions sufficiently coarse, that predictions of changes in frequency, size, intensity, or timing of these extreme events must be regarded as highly uncertain. Moreover, retrospective approaches that employ tree demography and dendrochronology require prohibitively large sample sizes to resolve details of the relationship between climate fluctuations and characteristics of these storms. To improve predictions of changes in the climatology of these storms, we need improved understanding of the genesis of tornadoes and downbursts within thunderstorms, and greater resolution in global climate models. To improve coping strategies, forest scientists can contribute by giving more attention to how various silvicultural actions influence stand and tree vulnerability. Finally, increased focus on the dynamics of forest recovery and regrowth may suggest management actions that can facilitate desired objectives after one of these unpredictable wind disturbances.

Climate↗
PubMed2006

Climate change and human health: present and future risks.

There is near unanimous scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activity will change Earth's climate. The recent (globally averaged) warming by 0.5 degrees C is partly attributable to such anthropogenic emissions. Climate change will affect human health in many ways-mostly adversely. Here, we summarise the epidemiological evidence of how climate variations and trends affect various health outcomes. We assess the little evidence there is that recent global warming has already affected some health outcomes. We review the published estimates of future health effects of climate change over coming decades. Research so far has mostly focused on thermal stress, extreme weather events, and infectious diseases, with some attention to estimates of future regional food yields and hunger prevalence. An emerging broader approach addresses a wider spectrum of health risks due to the social, demographic, and economic disruptions of climate change. Evidence and anticipation of adverse health effects will strengthen the case for pre-emptive policies, and will also guide priorities for planned adaptive strategies.

Aged↗
PubMed2003

Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (1949-1998).

North Carolina has one of the most complex climates in the United States (U.S.). Analysis of the climate in this state is critical for agricultural and planning purposes. Climate patterns and trends in North Carolina are analyzed for the period 1949-1998. Precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature are analyzed on seasonal and annual time scales using data collected from the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Network. Additionally, changes in patterns of occurrence of the last spring freeze and first fall freeze are investigated. Linear time series slopes are analyzed to investigate the spatial and temporal trends of climate variability in North Carolina. Spatial analysis of climate variability across North Carolina is performed using a geographic information system. While most trends are local in nature, there are general statewide patterns. Precipitation in North Carolina has increased over the past 50 years during the fall and winter seasons, but decreased during the summer. Temperatures during the last 10 years are warmer than average, but are not warmer than those experienced during the 1950s. The warm season has become longer, as measured by the dates of the last spring freeze and first fall freeze. Generally, the last 10 years were the wettest of the study period. These conclusions are consistent with earlier studies that show that the difference between the maximum and minimum temperatures is decreasing, possibly due to increased cloud cover and precipitation. Similarly, these results show that temperature patterns are in phase with the North Atlantic Oscillation and precipitation patterns appear to be correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Climate↗
PubMed1998

Climate change, thermal stress and mortality changes.

One of the potential effects of an anthropogenically induced climate change is a change in mortality related to thermal stress. In this paper, existing literature on the relationship between average temperatures and mortality is evaluated. By means of a simple meta-analysis an aggregated effect of a change in temperature on mortality is estimated for total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. These effect estimates are combined with projections of changes in baseline climate conditions of 20 cities, according to climate change scenarios of three General Circulation Models (GCMs). The results indicate that for most of the cities included, global climate change is likely to lead to a reduction in mortality rates due to decreasing winter mortality. This effect is most pronounced for cardiovascular mortality in elderly people in cities which experience temperate or cold climates at present. The sensitivity of the results to physiological and socio-economical adaptation is examined. However, more research is necessary to extend this work by inclusion of data from a wider range of populations.

Acclimatization↗
PubMed2006

Bird evolution in the Eocene: climate change in Europe and a Danish fossil fauna.

The pattern of the evolutionary radiation of modern birds (Neornithes) has been debated for more than 10 years. However, the early fossil record of birds from the Paleogene, in particular, the Lower Eocene, has only recently begun to be used in a phylogenetic context to address the dynamics of this major vertebrate radiation. The Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-P) extinction event dominates our understanding of early modern bird evolution, but climate change throughout the Eocene is known to have also played a major role. The Paleocene and Lower Eocene was a time of avian diversification as a result of favourable global climatic conditions. Deteriorations in climate beginning in the Middle Eocene appear to be responsible for the demise of previously widespread avian lineages like Lithornithiformes and Gastornithidae. Other groups, such as Galliformes display replacement of some lineages by others, probably related to adaptations to a drier climate. Finally, the combination of slowly deteriorating climatic conditions from the Middle Eocene onwards, appears to have slowed the evolutionary rate in Europe, as avian faunas did not differentiate markedly until the Oligocene. Taking biotic factors in tandem with the known Paleogene fossil record of Neornithes has recently begun to illuminate this evolutionary event. Well-preserved fossil taxa are required in combination with ever-improving phylogenetic hypotheses for the inter-relationships of modern birds founded on morphological characters. One key avifauna of this age, synthesised for the first time herein, is the Lower Eocene Fur Formation of Denmark. The Fur birds represent some of the best preserved (often in three dimensions and with soft tissues) known fossil records for major clades of modern birds. Clear phylogenetic assessment of these fossils will prove critical for future calibration of the neornithine evolutionary timescale. Some early diverging clades were clearly present in the Paleocene as evidenced directly by new fossil material alongside the phylogenetically constrained Lower Eocene taxa. A later Oligocene radiation of clades other than Passeriformes is not supported by available fossil data.

Animals↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Linked hydrologic and climate variations in British Columbia and Yukon.

Climatic and hydrologic variations between the decades 1976-1985 and 1986-1995 are examined at 34 climate stations and 275 hydrology stations. The variations in climate are distributed across a broad spatial area. Temperatures were generally warmer in the most recent decade, with many stations showing significant increases during the spring and fall. No significant decreases in temperature were found. Significant increases in temperature were more frequent in the south than in the northern portions of the region. Significant changes in precipitation were also more prevalent in the south. In coastal areas, there were significant decreases in precipitation during the dry season, and significant increases during the wet season. In the BC interior, significant precipitation decreases occurred during the fall, with significant increases during the winter and spring. In the north there were few changes in precipitation. The hydrologic responses to these variations in climate follow six distinctive patterns. The spatial distribution of these patterns suggests that in different ecozones, small variations in climate, particularly temperature, elicit different hydrologic responses.

British Columbia↗
PubMed1988

Long-term climate change and the geochemical cycle of carbon.

We study the interactions between the geochemical cycles of carbon and long-term changes in climate. Climate change is studied with a simple, zonally averaged energy balance climate model that includes the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide explicitly. The geochemical model balances the rate of consumption of carbon dioxide in silicate weathering against its release by volcanic and metamorphic processes. The silicate weathering rate is expressed locally as a function of temperature, carbon dioxide partial pressure, and runoff. The global weathering rate is calculated by integrating these quantities over the land area as a function of latitude. Carbon dioxide feedback stabilizes the climate system against a reduction in solar luminosity and may contribute to the preservation of equable climate on the early Earth, when solar luminosity was low. The system responds to reduced land area by increasing carbon dioxide partial pressure and warming the globe. Our model makes it possible to study the response of the system to changing latitudinal distribution of the continents. A concentration of land area at high latitudes leads to high carbon dioxide partial pressures and high global average temperature because weathering of high-latitude continents is slow. Conversely, concentration of the continents at low latitudes yields a cold globe and ice at low latitudes, a situation that appears to be representative of the late Precambrian glacial episode. This model is stable against ice albedo catastrophe even when the ice line occurs at low latitudes. In this it differs from energy balance models that lack the coupling to the geochemical cycle of carbon.

Atmosphere↗
PubMed2001

Climate variability 50,000 years ago in mid-latitude Chile as reconstructed from tree rings.

High-resolution proxies of past climate are essential for a better understanding of the climate system. Tree rings are routinely used to reconstruct Holocene climate variations at high temporal resolution, but only rarely have they offered insight into climate variability during earlier periods. Fitzroya cupressoides-a South American conifer which attains ages up to 3,600 years-has been shown to record summer temperatures in northern Patagonia during the past few millennia. Here we report a floating 1,229-year chronology developed from subfossil stumps of F. cupressoides in southern Chile that dates back to approximately 50,000 14C years before present. We use this chronology to calculate the spectral characteristics of climate variability in this time, which was probably an interstadial (relatively warm) period. Growth oscillations at periods of 150-250, 87-94, 45.5, 24.1, 17.8, 9.3 and 2.7-5.3 years are identified in the annual subfossil record. A comparison with the power spectra of chronologies derived from living F. cupressoides trees shows strong similarities with the 50,000-year-old chronology, indicating that similar growth forcing factors operated in this glacial interstadial phase as in the current interglacial conditions.

Chile↗
PubMed2002

Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios.

Global climates are changing rapidly, with unexpected consequences. Because elements of biodiversity respond intimately to climate as an important driving force of distributional limitation, distributional shifts and biodiversity losses are expected. Nevertheless, in spite of modelling efforts focused on single species or entire ecosystems, a few preliminary surveys of fauna-wide effects, and evidence of climate change-mediated shifts in several species, the likely effects of climate change on species' distributions remain little known, and fauna-wide or community-level effects are almost completely unexplored. Here, using a genetic algorithm and museum specimen occurrence data, we develop ecological niche models for 1,870 species occurring in Mexico and project them onto two climate surfaces modelled for 2055. Although extinctions and drastic range reductions are predicted to be relatively few, species turnover in some local communities is predicted to be high (>40% of species), suggesting that severe ecological perturbations may result.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2005

Climate modelling: Northern Hemisphere circulation.

Air pressure at sea level during winter has decreased over the Arctic and increased in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics in recent decades, a change that has been associated with 50% of the Eurasian winter warming observed over the past 30 years, with 60% of the rainfall increase in Scotland and with 60% of the rainfall decrease in Spain. This trend is inconsistent with the simulated response to greenhouse-gas and sulphate-aerosol changes, but it has been proposed that other climate influences--such as ozone depletion--could account for the discrepancy. Here I compare observed Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure trends with those simulated in response to all the major human and natural climate influences in nine state-of-the-art coupled climate models over the past 50 years. I find that these models all underestimate the circulation trend. This inconsistency suggests that we cannot yet simulate changes in this important property of the climate system or accurately predict regional climate changes.

Air Movements↗
PubMed2003

El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium.

Any assessment of future climate change requires knowledge of the full range of natural variability in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Here we splice together fossil-coral oxygen isotopic records from Palmyra Island in the tropical Pacific Ocean to provide 30-150-year windows of tropical Pacific climate variability within the last 1,100 years. The records indicate mean climate conditions in the central tropical Pacific ranging from relatively cool and dry during the tenth century to increasingly warmer and wetter climate in the twentieth century. But the corals also document a broad range of ENSO behaviour that correlates poorly with these estimates of mean climate. The most intense ENSO activity within the reconstruction occurred during the mid-seventeenth century. Taken together, the coral data imply that the majority of ENSO variability over the last millennium may have arisen from dynamics internal to the ENSO system itself.

Anthozoa↗
PubMed2004

Millennial and orbital variations of El Niño/Southern Oscillation and high-latitude climate in the last glacial period.

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is believed to have operated continuously over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. ENSO variability has been suggested to be linked to millennial-scale oscillations in North Atlantic climate during that time, but the proposals disagree on whether increased frequency of El Niño events, the warm phase of ENSO, was linked to North Atlantic warm or cold periods. Here we present a high-resolution record of surface moisture, based on the degree of peat humification and the ratio of sedges to grass, from northern Queensland, Australia, covering the past 45,000 yr. We observe millennial-scale dry periods, indicating periods of frequent El Niño events (summer precipitation declines in El Niño years in northeastern Australia). We find that these dry periods are correlated to the Dansgaard-Oeschger events--millennial-scale warm events in the North Atlantic climate record--although no direct atmospheric connection from the North Atlantic to our site can be invoked. Additionally, we find climatic cycles at a semiprecessional timescale (approximately 11,900 yr). We suggest that climate variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean on millennial as well as orbital timescales, which determined precipitation in northeastern Australia, also exerted an influence on North Atlantic climate through atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections.

Asia↗
PubMed2005

Parasites and climate synchronize red grouse populations.

There is circumstantial evidence that correlated climatic conditions can drive animal populations into synchronous fluctuations in abundance. However, it is unclear whether climate directly affects the survival and fecundity of individuals, or indirectly, by influencing food and natural enemies. Here we propose that climate affects trophic interactions and could be an important mechanism for synchronizing spatially distributed populations. We show that in specific years the size of red grouse populations in northern England either increases or decreases in synchrony. In these years, widespread and correlated climatic conditions during May and July affect populations regionally and influence the density-dependent transmission of the gastrointestinal nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis, a parasite that reduces grouse fecundity. This in turn forces grouse populations into synchrony. We conclude that specific climatic events may lead to outbreaks of infectious diseases or pests that may cause dramatic, synchronized changes in the abundance of their hosts.

Animals↗
PubMed2026

Genetically diverse populations hold the keys to climatic adaptation in the Western barn owl (Tyto alba).

Although local adaptation influences species distributions, its role in driving evolutionary resilience under climate change remains unclear. Current predictive models focus on genetic adaptation to present climates, providing limited insight into future adaptive capacity. We hypothesise that historical responses to climatic shifts can reveal candidate loci for local adaptation in the future. Combining ecological niche modelling and genomic analyses, we investigate spatiotemporal patterns and mechanisms of local adaptation of the Western Palearctic barn owl (Tyto alba). Ecological modelling reveals that barn owls now occupy a broader climatic niche than during the Last Glacial Maximum. Genomic analyses indicate ongoing adaptation, with regions under selection linked to environmental factors across all populations. We find that local adaptation drives evolutionary changes across populations, enabling colonisation of new habitats and shaping responses to climate change in resident populations. We show that standing genetic diversity plays a crucial role in adaptation to past, present, and future environmental shifts.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Climate variability and Ross River virus transmission in Townsville Region, Australia, 1985-1996.

BACKGROUND: How climate variability affects the transmission of infectious diseases at a regional level remains unclear. We assess the impact of climate variation on the Ross River virus (RRv) transmission in the Townsville region, Queensland, north-east Australia. METHODS: We obtained population-based information on monthly variations in RRv cases, climatic factors, sea level, and population growth between 1985 and 1996. Cross-correlations were computed for a series of associations between climate variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity and high tide) and the monthly incidence of RRv disease over a range of time lags. We assessed the impact of climate variability on RRv transmission using the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. RESULTS: There were significant correlations of the monthly incidence of RRv to rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and relative humidity, all at a lag of 2 months, and high tide in the current month. The results of SARIMA models show that monthly average rainfall (beta = 0.0007, P = 0.01) and high tide (beta = 0.0089, P = 0.04) were significantly associated with RRv transmission and maximum temperature was also marginally significantly associated with monthly incidence of RRv (beta = 0.0412, P = 0.07), although relative humidity did not seem to have played an important role in the Townsville region. CONCLUSIONS: Rainfall, high tide and maximum temperature were likely to be key determinants of RRv transmission in the Townsville region.

Alphavirus Infections↗
PubMed2004

The effect of climatic forcing on population synchrony and genetic structuring of the Canadian lynx.

The abundance of Canadian lynx follows 10-year density fluctuations across the Canadian subcontinent. These cyclic fluctuations have earlier been shown to be geographically structured into three climatic regions: the Atlantic, Continental, and Pacific zones. Recent genetic evidence revealed an essentially similar spatial structuring. Introducing a new population model, the "climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns" model, we link the observed ecological and evolutionary patterns. Specifically, we demonstrate that there is greater phase synchrony within climatic zones than between them and show that external climatic forcing may act as a synchronizer. We simulated genetic drift by using data on population dynamics generated by the climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns model, and we demonstrate that the observed genetic structuring can be seen as an emerging property of the spatiotemporal ecological dynamics.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Climate variability has a stabilizing effect on the coexistence of prairie grasses.

How expected increases in climate variability will affect species diversity depends on the role of such variability in regulating the coexistence of competing species. Despite theory linking temporal environmental fluctuations with the maintenance of diversity, the importance of climate variability for stabilizing coexistence remains unknown because of a lack of appropriate long-term observations. Here, we analyze three decades of demographic data from a Kansas prairie to demonstrate that interannual climate variability promotes the coexistence of three common grass species. Specifically, we show that (i) the dynamics of the three species satisfy all requirements of "storage effect" theory based on recruitment variability with overlapping generations, (ii) climate variables are correlated with interannual variation in species performance, and (iii) temporal variability increases low-density growth rates, buffering these species against competitive exclusion. Given that environmental fluctuations are ubiquitous in natural systems, our results suggest that coexistence based on the storage effect may be underappreciated and could provide an important alternative to recent neutral theories of diversity. Field evidence for positive effects of variability on coexistence also emphasizes the need to consider changes in both climate means and variances when forecasting the effects of global change on species diversity.

Climate↗