Search PubMed⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “Bayesian computational modeling”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23Linked to original sources
PubMed2004

Population pharmacokinetics of indinavir in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus.

Indinavir is currently used at a fixed dose of 800 mg either three times a day or twice a day in combination with 100 mg of ritonavir. Dosage individualization based on plasma concentration monitoring might, however, be indicated. This study aimed to assess the pharmacokinetic profile of indinavir in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus to characterize interpatient and intrapatient variability and to build up a Bayesian approach for dosage adaptation. A population analysis was performed with the NONMEM computer program with 569 plasma samples from a cohort of 239 unselected patients receiving indinavir. A one-compartment model with first-order absorption was adapted, and the influences of clinical characteristics on oral clearance (CL) and distribution volume (V) were examined. Predicted average drug exposure and trough and peak concentrations were derived for each patient and correlated with efficacy and toxicity markers. The population estimates of CL were 32.4 liters/h for female and 42.0 liters/h for male patients; oral V was 65.7 liters; and the rate constant of absorption (K(a)) was 1.0 h(-1). CL decreased by 63% with ritonavir intake and was moderately correlated to body weight. Both interpatient variability, best assigned to oral CL (coefficient of variation [CV], 39%) and K(a) (CV, 67%), and intrapatient variability were large (CV, 41%; standard deviation, 670 microg/liter). In conclusion, initial indinavir dosage should be decided according to ritonavir intake and sex, prior to plasma concentration measurements. The high interpatient pharmacokinetic variability represents an argument for therapeutic drug monitoring.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1991

Using empirical Bayes methods in biopharmaceutical research.

A compound sampling model, where a unit-specific parameter is sampled from a prior distribution and then observed are generated by a sampling distribution depending on the parameter, underlies a wide variety of biopharmaceutical data. For example, in a multi-centre clinical trial the true treatment effect varies from centre to centre. Observed treatment effects deviate from these true effects through sampling variation. Knowledge of the prior distribution allows use of Bayesian analysis to compute the posterior distribution of clinic-specific treatment effects (frequently summarized by the posterior mean and variance). More commonly, with the prior not completely specified, observed data can be used to estimate the prior and use it to produce the posterior distribution: an empirical Bayes (or variance component) analysis. In the empirical Bayes model the estimated prior mean gives the typical treatment effect and the estimated prior standard deviation indicates the heterogeneity of treatment effects. In both the Bayes and empirical Bayes approaches, estimated clinic effects are shrunken towards a common value from estimates based on single clinics. This shrinkage produces more efficient estimates. In addition, the compound model helps structure approaches to ranking and selection, provides adjustments for multiplicity, allows estimation of the histogram of clinic-specific effects, and structures incorporation of external information. This paper outlines the empirical Bayes approach. Coverage will include development and comparison of approaches based on parametric priors (for example, a Gaussian prior with unknown mean and variance) and non-parametric priors, discussion of the importance of accounting for uncertainty in the estimated prior, comparison of the output and interpretation of fixed and random effects approaches to estimating population values, estimating histograms, and identification of key considerations in the use and interpretation of empirical Bayes methods.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed2006

Estimating the parameters of a model for protein-protein interaction graphs.

We find accurate approximations for the expected number of three-cycles and unchorded four-cycles under a stochastic distribution for graphs that has been proposed for modelling yeast two-hybrid protein-protein interaction networks. We show that unchorded four-cycles are characteristic motifs under this model and that the count of unchorded four-cycles in the graph is a reliable statistic on which to base parameter estimation. Finally, we test our model against a range of experimental data, obtain parameter estimates from these data and investigate possible improvements in the model. Characterization of this model lays the foundation for its use as a prior distribution in a Bayesian analysis of yeast two-hybrid networks that can potentially aid in identifying false-positive and false-negative results.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2006

Fundamental differences between the methods of maximum likelihood and maximum posterior probability in phylogenetics.

Using a four-taxon example under a simple model of evolution, we show that the methods of maximum likelihood and maximum posterior probability (which is a Bayesian method of inference) may not arrive at the same optimal tree topology. Some patterns that are separately uninformative under the maximum likelihood method are separately informative under the Bayesian method. We also show that this difference has impact on the bootstrap frequencies and the posterior probabilities of topologies, which therefore are not necessarily approximately equal. Efron et al. (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 93:13429-13434, 1996) stated that bootstrap frequencies can, under certain circumstances, be interpreted as posterior probabilities. This is true only if one includes a non-informative prior distribution of the possible data patterns, and most often the prior distributions are instead specified in terms of topology and branch lengths. [Bayesian inference; maximum likelihood method; Phylogeny; support.].

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed2005

Coarse master equation from Bayesian analysis of replica molecular dynamics simulations.

We use Bayesian inference to derive the rate coefficients of a coarse master equation from molecular dynamics simulations. Results from multiple short simulation trajectories are used to estimate propagators. A likelihood function constructed as a product of the propagators provides a posterior distribution of the free coefficients in the rate matrix determining the Markovian master equation. Extensions to non-Markovian dynamics are discussed, using the trajectory "paths" as observations. The Markovian approach is illustrated for the filling and emptying transitions of short carbon nanotubes dissolved in water. We show that accurate thermodynamic and kinetic properties, such as free energy surfaces and kinetic rate coefficients, can be computed from coarse master equations obtained through Bayesian inference.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Combining geometric and probabilistic reasoning for computer-based penetrating-trauma assessment.

OBJECTIVE: To ascertain whether three-dimensional geometric and probabilistic reasoning methods can be successfully combined for computer-based assessment of conditions arising from ballistic penetrating trauma to the chest and abdomen. DESIGN: The authors created a computer system (TraumaSCAN) that integrates three-dimensional geometric reasoning about anatomic likelihood of injury with probabilistic reasoning about injury consequences using Bayesian networks. Preliminary evaluation of TraumaSCAN was performed via a retrospective study testing performance of the system on data from 26 cases of actual gunshot wounds. MEASUREMENTS: Areas under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve were calculated for each condition modeled in TraumaSCAN that was present in the 26 cases. The comprehensiveness and relevance of the TraumaSCAN diagnosis for the 26 cases were used to assess the overall performance of the system. To test the ability of TraumaSCAN to handle limited findings, these measurements were calculated both with and without input of observed findings into the Bayesian network. RESULTS: For the 11 conditions assessed, the worst area under the ROC curve with no observed findings input into the Bayesian network was 0.542 (95% CI, 0.146-0.937), the median was 0.883 (95% CI, 0.713-1.000), and the best was 1.00 (95% CI, 1.000-1.000). The worst area under the ROC curve with all observed findings input into the Bayesian network was 0.835 (95% CI, 0.602-1.000), the median was 0.941 (95% CI, 0.827-1.000), and the best was 0.992 (95% CI, 0.965-1.000). A comparison of the areas under the curve obtained with and without input of observed findings into the Bayesian network showed that there were significant differences for 2 of the 11 conditions assessed. CONCLUSION: A computer-based method that combines geometric and probabilistic reasoning shows promise as a tool for assessing ballistic penetrating trauma to the chest and abdomen.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed2003

A computer-based microarray experiment design-system for gene-regulation pathway discovery.

This paper reports the methods and evaluation of a computer-based system that recommends microarray experimental design for biologists - causal discovery in Gene Expression data using Expected Value of Experimentation (GEEVE). The GEEVE system uses causal Bayesian networks and generates a decision tree for recommendations. To evaluate the GEEVE system, we first built an expression simulation model based on a gene regulation model assessed by an expert biologist. Using the simulation model, we conducted a controlled study that involved 10 biologists, some of whom used GEEVE and some of whom did not. The results show that biologists who used GEEVE reached correct causal assessments about gene regulation more often than did those biologists who did not use GEEVE.

Area Under Curve↗
PubMed2003

Maximum-likelihood and markov chain monte carlo approaches to estimate inbreeding and effective size from allele frequency changes.

Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian (MCMC algorithm) estimates of the increase of the Wright-Malécot inbreeding coefficient, F(t), between two temporally spaced samples, were developed from the Dirichlet approximation of allelic frequency distribution (model MD) and from the admixture of the Dirichlet approximation and the probabilities of fixation and loss of alleles (model MDL). Their accuracy was tested using computer simulations in which F(t) = 10% or less. The maximum-likelihood method based on the model MDL was found to be the best estimate of F(t) provided that initial frequencies are known exactly. When founder frequencies are estimated from a limited set of founder animals, only the estimates based on the model MD can be used for the moment. In this case no method was found to be the best in all situations investigated. The likelihood and Bayesian approaches give better results than the classical F-statistics when markers exhibiting a low polymorphism (such as the SNP markers) are used. Concerning the estimations of the effective population size all the new estimates presented here were found to be better than the F-statistics classically used.

Gene Frequency↗
PubMed2005

Adaptive diagnosis in distributed systems.

Real-time problem diagnosis in large distributed computer systems and networks is a challenging task that requires fast and accurate inferences from potentially huge data volumes. In this paper, we propose a cost-efficient, adaptive diagnostic technique called active probing. Probes are end-to-end test transactions that collect information about the performance of a distributed system. Active probing uses probabilistic reasoning techniques combined with information-theoretic approach, and allows a fast online inference about the current system state via active selection of only a small number of most-informative tests. We demonstrate empirically that the active probing scheme greatly reduces both the number of probes (from 60% to 75% in most of our real-life applications), and the time needed for localizing the problem when compared with nonadaptive (preplanned) probing schemes. We also provide some theoretical results on the complexity of probe selection, and the effect of "noisy" probes on the accuracy of diagnosis. Finally, we discuss how to model the system's dynamics using dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), and an efficient approximate approach called sequential multifault; empirical results demonstrate clear advantage of such approaches over "static" techniques that do not handle system's changes.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2005

Development of CYP3A4 inhibition models: comparisons of machine-learning techniques and molecular descriptors.

Computational models of cytochrome P450 3A4 inhibition were developed based on high-throughput screening data for 4470 proprietary compounds. Multiple models differentiating inhibitors (IC(50) <3 microM) and noninhibitors were generated using various machine-learning algorithms (recursive partitioning [RP], Bayesian classifier, logistic regression, k-nearest-neighbor, and support vector machine [SVM]) with structural fingerprints and topological indices. Nineteen models were evaluated by internal 10-fold cross-validation and also by an independent test set. Three most predictive models, Barnard Chemical Information (BCI)-fingerprint/SVM, MDL-keyset/SVM, and topological indices/RP, correctly classified 249, 248, and 236 compounds of 291 noninhibitors and 135, 137, and 147 compounds of 179 inhibitors in the validation set. Their overall accuracies were 82%, 82%, and 81%, respectively. Investigating applicability of the BCI/SVM model found a strong correlation between the predictive performance and the structural similarity to the training set. Using Tanimoto similarity index as a confidence measurement for the predictions, the limitation of the extrapolation was 0.7 in the case of the BCI/SVM model. Taking consensus of the 3 best models yielded a further improvement in predictive capability, kappa = 0.65 and accuracy = 83%. The consensus model could also be tuned to minimize either false positives or false negatives depending on the emphasis of the screening.

Artificial Intelligence↗
PubMed1995

Estimation of population pharmacokinetics using the Gibbs sampler.

Quantification of the average and interindividual variation in pharmacokinetic behavior within the patient population is an important aspect of drug development. Population pharmacokinetic models typically involve large numbers of parameters related nonlinearly to sparse, observational data, which creates difficulties for conventional methods of analysis. The nonlinear mixed-effects method implemented in the computer program NONMEM is a widely used approach to the estimation of population parameters. However, the method relies on somewhat restrictive modeling assumptions to enable efficient parameter estimation. In this paper we describe a Bayesian approach to population pharmacokinetic analysis which used a technique known as Gibbs sampling to simulate values for each model parameter. We provide details of how to implement the method in the context of population pharmacokinetic analysis, and illustrate this via an application to gentamicin population pharmacokinetics in neonates.

Anti-Bacterial Agents↗
PubMed2006

Identifying sites under positive selection with uncertain parameter estimates.

Codon-based substitution models are routinely used to measure selective pressures acting on protein-coding genes. To this effect, the nonsynonymous to synonymous rate ratio (dN/dS = omega) is estimated. The proportion of amino-acid sites potentially under positive selection, as indicated by omega > 1, is inferred by fitting a probability distribution where some sites are permitted to have omega > 1. These sites are then inferred by means of an empirical Bayes or by a Bayes empirical Bayes approach that, respectively, ignores or accounts for sampling errors in maximum-likelihood estimates of the distribution used to infer the proportion of sites with omega > 1. Here, we extend a previous full-Bayes approach to include models with high power and low false-positive rates when inferring sites under positive selection. We propose some heuristics to alleviate the computational burden, and show that (i) full Bayes can be superior to empirical Bayes when analyzing a small data set or small simulated data, (ii) full Bayes has only a small advantage over Bayes empirical Bayes with our small test data, and (iii) Bayesian methods appear relatively insensitive to mild misspecifications of the random process generating adaptive evolution in our simulations, but in practice can prove extremely sensitive to model specification. We suggest that the codon model used to detect amino acids under selection should be carefully selected, for instance using Akaike information criterion (AIC).

Amino Acids↗
PubMed2005

Feature selection in Bayesian classifiers for the prognosis of survival of cirrhotic patients treated with TIPS.

The transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is a treatment for cirrhotic patients with portal hypertension. A subgroup of patients dies in the first 6 months and another subgroup lives a long period of time. Nowadays, no risk factors have been identified in order to determine how long a patient will survive. An empirical study for predicting the survival rate within the first 6 months after TIPS placement is conducted using a clinical database with 107 cases and 77 variables. Applications of Bayesian classification models, based on Bayesian networks, to medical problems have become popular in the last years. Feature subset selection is useful due to the heterogeneity of the medical databases where not all the variables are required to perform the classification. In this paper, filter and wrapper approaches based on the feature subset selection are adapted to induce Bayesian classifiers (naive Bayes, selective naive Bayes, semi naive Bayes, tree augmented naive Bayes, and k-dependence Bayesian classifier) and are applied to distinguish between the two subgroups of cirrhotic patients. The estimated accuracies obtained tally with the results of previous studies. Moreover, the medical significance of the subset of variables selected by the classifiers along with the comprehensibility of Bayesian models is greatly appreciated by physicians.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed2006

Invariance priors for Bayesian feed-forward neural networks.

Neural networks (NN) are famous for their advantageous flexibility for problems when there is insufficient knowledge to set up a proper model. On the other hand, this flexibility can cause overfitting and can hamper the generalization of neural networks. Many approaches to regularizing NN have been suggested but most of them are based on ad hoc arguments. Employing the principle of transformation invariance, we derive a general prior in accordance with the Bayesian probability theory for feed-forward networks. An optimal network is determined by Bayesian model comparison, verifying the applicability of this approach. Additionally the prior presented affords cell pruning.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2003

Quantitative comparison of FBP, EM, and Bayesian reconstruction algorithms for the IndyPET scanner.

We quantitatively compare filtered backprojection (FBP), expectation-maximization (EM), and Bayesian reconstruction algorithms as applied to the IndyPET scanner--a dedicated research scanner which has been developed for small and intermediate field of view imaging applications. In contrast to previous approaches that rely on Monte Carlo simulations, a key feature of our investigation is the use of an empirical system kernel determined from scans of line source phantoms. This kernel is incorporated into the forward model of the EM and Bayesian algorithms to achieve resolution recovery. Three data sets are used, data collected on the IndyPET scanner using a bar phantom and a Hoffman three-dimensional brain phantom, and simulated data containing a hot lesion added to a uniform background. Reconstruction quality is analyzed quantitatively in terms of bias-variance measures (bar phantom) and mean square error (lesion phantom). We observe that without use of the empirical system kernel, the FBP, EM, and Bayesian algorithms give similar performance. However, with the inclusion of the empirical kernel, the iterative algorithms provide superior reconstructions compared with FBP, both in terms of visual quality and quantitative measures. Furthermore, Bayesian methods outperform EM. We conclude that significant improvements in reconstruction quality can be realized by combining accurate models of the system response with Bayesian reconstruction algorithms.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2002

Bayesian prediction of spatial count data using generalized linear mixed models.

Spatial weed count data are modeled and predicted using a generalized linear mixed model combined with a Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Informative priors for a data set with sparse sampling are elicited using a previously collected data set with extensive sampling. Furthermore, we demonstrate that so-called Langevin-Hastings updates are useful for efficient simulation of the posterior distributions, and we discuss computational issues concerning prediction.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2005

Bayesian analysis for generalized linear models with nonignorably missing covariates.

We propose Bayesian methods for estimating parameters in generalized linear models (GLMs) with nonignorably missing covariate data. We show that when improper uniform priors are used for the regression coefficients, phi, of the multinomial selection model for the missing data mechanism, the resulting joint posterior will always be improper if (i) all missing covariates are discrete and an intercept is included in the selection model for the missing data mechanism, or (ii) at least one of the covariates is continuous and unbounded. This impropriety will result regardless of whether proper or improper priors are specified for the regression parameters, beta, of the GLM or the parameters, alpha, of the covariate distribution. To overcome this problem, we propose a novel class of proper priors for the regression coefficients, phi, in the selection model for the missing data mechanism. These priors are robust and computationally attractive in the sense that inferences about beta are not sensitive to the choice of the hyperparameters of the prior for phi and they facilitate a Gibbs sampling scheme that leads to accelerated convergence. In addition, we extend the model assessment criterion of Chen, Dey, and Ibrahim (2004a, Biometrika 91, 45-63), called the weighted L measure, to GLMs and missing data problems as well as extend the deviance information criterion (DIC) of Spiegelhalter et al. (2002, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 64, 583-639) for assessing whether the missing data mechanism is ignorable or nonignorable. A novel Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is also developed for carrying out posterior computation. Several simulations are given to investigate the performance of the proposed Bayesian criteria as well as the sensitivity of the prior specification. Real datasets from a melanoma cancer clinical trial and a liver cancer study are presented to further illustrate the proposed methods.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed1998

Biases in three-dimensional structure-from-motion arise from noise in the early visual system.

The projected pattern of retinal-image motion supplies the human visual system with valuable information about properties of the three-dimensional environment. How well three-dimensional properties can be recovered depends both on the accuracy with which the early motion system estimates retinal motion, and on the way later processes interpret this retinal motion. Here we combine both early and late stages of the computational process to account for the hitherto puzzling phenomenon of systematic biases in three-dimensional shape perception. We present data showing how the perceived depth of a hinged plane ('an open book') can be systematically biased by the extent over which it rotates. We then present a Bayesian model that combines early measurement noise with geometric reconstruction of the three-dimensional scene. Although this model has no in-built bias towards particular three-dimensional shapes, it accounts for the data well. Our analysis suggests that the biases stem largely from the geometric constraints imposed on what three-dimensional scenes are compatible with the (noisy) early motion measurements. Given these findings, we suggest that the visual system may act as an optimal estimator of three-dimensional structure-from-motion.

Computer Simulation↗