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PubMed1992

Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population.

"A projection model based on a multivariate continuous state, stochastic process is presented. The model allows multiple time-varying covariates to be used so parameters can be estimated from time series information on health changes and mortality, and their interaction. Health changes are simulated by altering parameters controlling the age trajectory and diffusion of risk factor means, variances, and covariances....By increasing the information used in projections it may be possible to better (a) anticipate the state of health at extreme ages, (b) forecast changes in health at specific ages over time, (c) stimulate the effects of specific interventions, and (d) determine the sensitivity of outcomes to a range of interventions."

Adult↗
PubMed2006

[Significant reduction of vascular risk factors within the framework of the population-based intervention project INVADE--a 2-year follow-up study].

BACKGROUND: The INVADE project (Intervention project of cerebrovascular diseases and dementia in the district of Ebersberg) analyzes the effect of risk factor evaluation and modification on the incidence of stroke and dementia. Here we evaluated the changes of risk factors after two years in the INVADE population, particularly in participants with diabetes mellitus and coronary heart disease (CHD). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Baseline data of 3909 participants were available. In addition to common risk factors and new risk indicators, various social demographic data and life style parameters were analyzed. A guideline-based therapy was proposed for each participant based on an individual risk profile. The differences between baseline and the 2-year follow-up data were analyzed using the paired t-test and the McNemar test. RESULTS: Complete follow-up data were available in 3185 participants (1288 men; mean age 69.5 years). For the overall project population the reduction of traditional risk factors was effective, particularly in subjects with hypertension or diabetes. The prevalence of hypertension was 76 %, including 19 % newly diagnosed subjects. In this subgroup, the systolic blood pressure could be reduced by 4.7 mmHg. 20.3 % of the participants showed a diabetes mellitus, blood glucose level decreased about 8 %. Additionally an improvement in hypertension therapy and lipid levels was seen. Comparable results were achieved in the CHD subgroup. Additionally, in the overall study population treatment with antihypertensives and statins increased significantly. DISCUSSION: Even after two years, the INVADE project was able to reduce vascular risk factors particularly in high risk patients with diabetes and CHD. Based on these findings, the primary aim of the project, the reduction of stroke and dementia incidence, can be achieved.

Aged↗
PubMed1997

Inhibition can disrupt hypersynchrony in model neuronal networks.

1. Model neuronal network simulations were performed using a reduced Traub neuronal network model. In the absence of inhibition the network produced synchronous population bursting. 2. Bursting of individual neurons was dependent on 1 or more of the following: build-up of charge in the dendritic compartment, prolonged current flow through simulated NMDA associated channels, current flow through T channels. Interburst interval duration and consequent burst frequency was dependent on the density of slow after-hyperpolarizing potassium channels. 3. Addition of an inhibitory interneuron population projecting to GABAA receptors resulted in rapid desynchronization of the population, generally after only 1-2 cycles. This effect was found to be due to reduced participation in the individual population burst and to the need for multi-synaptic activation of the individual neuron in the presence of inhibition. 4. This desynchronizing effect could be offset by increasing the strength of interburst hyperpolarization either through increased density of IAHP, or through the addition of a separate inhibitory interneuron pool projected to GABAB receptors. 5. These data suggest that the synchronizing effects of inhibition may vary depending on circumstances-with desynchronization being dominant in cases characterized by large population bursts such as those seen in epilepsy.

Excitatory Amino Acid Agonists↗
PubMed2003

Revised birth and fertility rates for the United States, 2000 and 2001.

OBJECTIVES: This report presents revised birth and fertility rates for 2000 and 2001, based on populations consistent with the April 1, 2000, census. Rates are presented by age, race, and Hispanic origin of mother; by age, race, and Hispanic origin of mother for unmarried women; and by age and race of father. To put the rates for 2000 and 2001 into context, rates are also shown for 1990. METHODS: Populations were produced for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics under a collaborative arrangement with the U.S. Census Bureau. The populations reflect the results of the 2000 census. This census allowed people to report more than one race for themselves and their household members, and also separated the category for Asian or Pacific Islander persons into two groups (Asian; Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander). These changes reflected the Office of Management and Budgets 1997 revisions to the standards for the classification of Federal data on race and ethnicity. Because only one race is currently reported in birth certificate data, the 2000 census populations were "bridged" to the single race categories specified in the Office of Management and Budget's 1977 guidelines for race and ethnic statistics in Federal reporting, which are still in use in the collection of vital statistics data. RESULTS: Population-based birth and fertility rates for 2000 and 2001, based on the 2000 census, are somewhat lower for Hispanics (11 percent for the fertility rate in 2001) and Asian or Pacific Islanders (7 percent) and considerably lower for American Indians (18 percent) than the rates previously published based on populations projected from the 1990 census. Rates for most other population subgroups differ little from those previously published. Because of these patterns, the differentials in fertility among population subgroups remain, but are somewhat reduced. Between 1990 and 2001, teenage birth rates declined, rates for women in their twenties changed little, and rates for women in their thirties and forties rose.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1985

A serotonin-containing pathway from the area postrema to the parabrachial nucleus in the rat.

A combined retrograde tracing-immunofluorescent technique was used to identify the relationships between the cellular population projecting to the parabrachial nucleus and the serotonin-immunoreactive cell population of the area postrema in rats. The retrograde fluorescent tracer True Blue was injected in the parabrachial region and 3 days later the animals were perfused. Serial cryostat sections were processed for serotonin immunofluorescence. Three different groups of labeled cells were identified in the area postrema. First, True Blue-positive cells (up to 250/section) that project to the parabrachial nucleus were observed distributed throughout the area postrema. Second, in the pargyline (a monoamine oxidase inhibitor)-treated animals a large number of serotonergic cells (up to 125/section) was observed distributed throughout the area postrema. There was a tendency to a heavier distribution of serotonin-immunoreactive cells in the dorsal two-thirds of the area postrema. Third, double-labelled cells were also seen. Twenty percent of the True Blue-labelled cells projecting to the parabrachial nucleus were serotonin-immunoreactive. Thirty nine percent of the serotonin-immunoreactive population was retrogradely labelled with True Blue. Thus a new serotonergic pathway from the area postrema to the parabrachial nucleus is described; this pathway may be important in the ascending transmission and modulation of chemical and visceral sensory input.

Animals↗
PubMed1999

Projections of population-based twinning rates through the year 2100.

OBJECTIVE: To present the first compilation of population-based twinning rates published after the year 1990 and to project population-based twinning rates through the year 2100. STUDY DESIGN: We searched the Internet-based MEDLINE database for articles published after 1990 in which population-based twinning rates were described. We used population-based data from national statistical authorities from Australia, Austria, Canada, Finland, Hong Kong, Israel, Japan, Norway, Singapore and Sweden, published by Y. Imaizumi in a recent article. U.S. figures were based on data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Annual growth rates of twinning were calculated and graphed, making the assumption that these rates would remain constant throughout the next century. RESULTS: Our report presents the most recent population-based twinning rates. When projected through the year 2015, twinning rates reach figures that could best be described as derived from a Jules Verne novel: Sweden, in this model, would have four times more twin than singleton births. CONCLUSION: We strongly suggest that physicians reexamine their patterns of prescribing ovulation-inducing agents, which carry a greatly increased risk of multiple pregnancy.

Adult↗
PubMed1991

Projections of the population in Israel up to 2005.

"The Central Bureau of Statistics presents herewith new projections of the development of the population in Israel up to 2005. The projections are for the years 1995, 2000 and 2005. At the base of these projections is the estimated population at the end of 1990, by sex, age and population group...."

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1981

Demographic background for international gerontological studies.

Current and prospective international variations in several demographic measures relevant to aging studies are considered. Variations in the number and proportion of persons 65 and over, sex ratios for the aged population, aged and total dependency ratios, ratios of adult children to elderly parents in the more developed countries (MDC), the less developed countries (LDC), and the principal regions of the world are described. The analysis discloses much lower rates of increase in the numbers of elderly, higher proportions of the elderly, higher aged-dependency ratios, and lower total-dependency ratios in MDC than in LDC. Population projections to the year 2000 indicate a continued aging of the population and an increase in the aged-dependency ratio in both MDC and LDC. The important role of fertility in explaining the level and variations in such measures is noted.

Aged↗
PubMed2000

Proximal femoral fracture in Northern Ireland between 1985-1997--trends and future projections.

The aims of this study were to identify changing trends with time of the incidence of proximal femoral fracture and to enable future number of hip fractures to be projected. Hospital theatre records in Northern Ireland were surveyed in 1985, 1991, 1994 and 1997 to establish the number of surgical procedures for proximal femoral fracture. The age and sex specific rates for males and females aged 50+ years were calculated. Analysis of age and sex specific incidence rates was undertaken using linear regression and Poisson regression. A 1.6% increase per annum (95% CI 1.0-2.2) was noted in males and females from 1985 to 1997. Projected increases in rates of proximal femoral fracture were calculated using population projection for 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. Modelling (a) assuming the age standardised rates in 1997 remain static and continue predicted a 55% fracture increase in males and a 29% increase in females by 2016, (b) assuming the secular increases continued predicted a 93% fracture increase in males and a 67% increase in females and (c) assuming further linear growth on a log-scale predicted a fracture increase in males of 135% and 99% in females. The number of proximal femoral fractures in Northern Ireland is increasing faster than that anticipated due to demographic changes alone, supporting a secular increase which was evident throughout the period of time studied, in contrast to that reported from other regions in the United Kingdom.

Age of Onset↗
PubMed1986

Population forecasts and confidence intervals for Sweden: a comparison of model-based and empirical approaches.

This paper compares several methods of generating confidence intervals for forecasts of population size. Two rest on a demographic model for age-structured populations with stochastic fluctuations in vital rates. Two rest on empirical analyses of past forecasts of population sizes of Sweden at five-year intervals from 1780 to 1980 inclusive. Confidence intervals produced by the different methods vary substantially. The relative sizes differ in the various historical periods. The narrowest intervals offer a lower bound on uncertainty about the future. Procedures for estimating a range of confidence intervals are tentatively recommended. A major lesson is that finitely many observations of the past and incomplete theoretical understanding of the present and future can justify at best a range of confidence intervals for population projections. Uncertainty attaches not only to the point forecasts of future population, but also to the estimates of those forecasts' uncertainty.

Forecasting↗
PubMed2001

Lifetime risk of lung cancer due to radon exposure projected to Japanese and Swedish populations.

Lifetime risk projections depend greatly on both background lung cancer rates and the selection of the risk model. Since background lung cancer rates differ from subject populations and the time, etiological risk of lifetime lung cancer mortality per unit radon exposure in WLM should be estimated for each subject population and the time of interest. To answer quantitatively how much are the differences among the projected risks for different populations, the Swedish case-control-study-based risk projection model was applied to the Japanese and Swedish populations from 1962 to 1997 as subject populations because of their distinct trends of lung cancer rates. To compare the results with the reference population and authorized risk projection models, U.S. population 1997 and the two risk projection models in BEIR VI report were applied, respectively. Lifetime risk of lung cancer mortality projected for Japanese, Swedish, and U.S. populations in 1997 per radon progeny exposure were estimated to range from 1.50 (0.40-3.19) x 10(-4) WLM(-1) to 9.86 (2.62-20.9) x 10(-4) WLM(-1), which could be compared to the detriment associated with a unit effective dose. Conclusive dose conversion coefficients in this study ranged from 2.05 (0.55-4.37) to 13.5 (3.59-28.6) mSv WLM(-1), and within this range the discrepancy between dosimetric and epidemiological approaches was included.

Environmental Exposure↗