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PubMed1996

[Population development and economic growth. A simulation analysis for Switzerland].

"A simulation exercise of a general equilibrium model for Switzerland makes clear that the macroeconomic impacts of aging populations are not very strong. There is no need for urgent policy actions to avoid severe negative economic consequences....However, the aging of population affects negatively the net income of the active labor force. An increasing share of their gross salaries goes to the retirement system to finance the pension payments of a growing number of pensioners. Attempts to moderate the elderly dependency ratio would lower this burden for the active labor force. Options are an increase of the female participation rate, an increase of the labor participation rate of the elderly--[which] also means a higher retirement age--and an increasing flow of immigrants. But socioeconomic problems might probably generate practical limits on the extent to which immigration can be increased." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE)

Demography↗

PubMed1994

The impact of demographic change on tax revenue.

"This paper [simulates] the impact of demographic change on direct tax revenue for the Netherlands using extensive survey data and population projections. Projected demographic development in the Netherlands fits in well with the OECD mainstream. The analysis thus has a more general relevance. The simulations indicate a 27 percent rise in tax revenue until 2010 because of population growth and a relatively older labor force. After 2030, revenue falls as a consequence of a declining population and a rapidly rising share of the elderly. The authors also simulated a variant in which labor-force participation rates are set on the substantially higher OECD average. In this case, the increase in tax revenue almost doubles as compared to the base variant."

Demography↗

PubMedDate not supplied

The projected supply of registered nurses, 1990.

The number of employed registered nurses (RNs) in the United States stood at an all-time high of 1.3 million in 1980. This paper, using life table techniques, develops a population base of all living graduates from data on graduations from basic nursing education programs between 1928 and 1980, and estimates that there are some 1.9 million graduates now living. The number of graduates is projected to rise to some 2.4 million by the end of 1990, of whom 1.7 million will be active in the profession. Factors taken into account include recent increases in admissions, which rose from 79,000 in 1970 to 112,000 in 1980; the extent to which older women are entering the profession; the rapid growth of 2-year associate degree programs, which now account for half of all admissions; and increased labor force participation, with 68 percent of all living graduates in the labor force in 1980, compared to 60 percent in 1970. It is projected that the movement to advanced education among RNs will continue so that, by 1990, the proportion with baccalaureate or higher degrees will have risen from 29 to 36 percent of the employed RNs. By 1990 the largest number of active RNs will be in their 30s. Graduates with diplomas will have a median age of 45; those with associate degrees, 35; and those with baccalaureate or higher degrees, 32 years.

Adult↗

PubMed1995

Population growth, sex ratios, and women's work on the contemporary Amazon frontier.

"This paper uses 1991 census and 1990 survey data from Brazil to test hypotheses regarding the relationship between population growth (most of which stems from immigration), sex ratios, and women's labor force participation on the Amazon frontier. Strong evidence supports the link between population growth and sex ratios, though significant local variation exists. The relationship between sex ratios and gender roles, especially female labor force participation and occupational mobility, is less clear and appears variable."

Americas↗

PubMed1989

Location, social categories, and individual labor market experiences in developing economies: the Venezuelan case.

"Individual labor market experiences [in Venezuela] are examined in terms of educational attainment, labor force participation, and wages received. Explanatory factors include personal attributes and two multivariate scales measuring place characteristics related to development. The results indicate that place characteristics associated with development have important effects on labor market experiences.... Among the key findings of this research are that educational attainment most affected labor force participation by women and wages of men."

Americas↗

PubMed1992

Small area analysis of surgery for low-back pain.

Rates of spine surgery (discectomy, laminectomy, fusion) vary several-fold among "small areas" such as counties or hospital market areas. To ascertain why this is so, an analysis was conducted of variability in rates among counties in the State of Washington (N = 39). Since, unlike previous published reports, this study excluded patients with cancer, major trauma, and infection, as well as those with cervical and thoracic procedures, rates in this study pertain specifically to the problem of low-back pain. Six classes of variables to explain variability among county rates were defined: I) percentage of the labor force in heavy labor and transportation occupations; II) socioeconomic conditions; III) neurologic and orthopedic surgeon density; IV) occupancy rate of back surgery hospitals; V) primary payer and VI) health care availability. In all, the effect of 28 explanatory variables was tested. In doing so, the authors took into account the possibility of spurious correlation. The rate of surgery for low-back pain varied nearly 15-fold among counties. The explanatory variables that were tested, however, accounted for only a minor part of the variability. The hypothesis that "physician practice style factor" accounts for the major part is explored; potential properties of practice style factor are specified for further testing.

Back Pain↗

PubMed2000

Retirement outcomes in the Health and Retirement Study.

This article examines retirement outcomes in the first four waves of the 1992-1998 Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Measured retirement is seen to differ, sometimes substantially, with the definition of retirement used and among various groups analyzed. Moreover, those differences vary with the wave of the survey as respondents age. Retirement comprises a complex set of flows among states representing nonretirement, partial retirement, and complete retirement. Using the self-reported definition of retirement, 77 percent of transitions continue in the same or equivalent states between adjoining waves of the HRS, 17 percent involve a move from greater to lesser labor force participation, and 6 percent involve a move from lesser to greater labor force participation. Twenty-two percent of the sample report they were partially retired at some time in the first four waves, and by age 65, over a fifth of the population is partially retired. Altogether, 17 percent of the sample experienced a reversal in the course of the survey, moving from a state of less work to a state of more work. A comparison of retirement flows for men between the HRS and the 1969-1979 Retirement History Study (RHS) shows that the large spike in the population leaving nonretirement at age 65 observed in the 1969-1979 RHS has fallen from 18 to 11 percentage points in the HRS and that the share leaving nonretirement at 62 has increased from 13 to 20 percentage points over time. The results presented here should help researchers improve their understanding of the structure of the dependent variable in retirement studies. Incorrect or arbitrary measurement of the retirement variable may lead to a misunderstanding of how Social Security and related policies affect retirement outcomes. Thus, the improved understanding of retirement gained from this research will be helpful to those designing retirement policies as they attempt to understand the effects of those policies.

Black or African American↗

PubMed1976

An analysis of the impact of education on family size.

The impact of education on family size is divided into a direct effect (holding labor force participation and age at marriage constant) and an indirect effect (varying labor force participation and age at marriage). The results suggest that (1) the indirect effect of education is greater at higher levels of the wife's education, (2) the direct effect is greater at lower levels of education in most cases, (3) the indirect effects do not vary systematically with husband's education, (4) but the direct effect does vary systematically with husband's education if the education of the wife is low but not if wife's education is high.

Adult↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Hispanic Americans in the United States: Young, dynamic and diverse.

Hispanic Americans are a rapidly growing population group, with numbers that increased 53 percent between 1980 and 1990. In 1994 Hispanics numbered 26.6 million, accounting for 10.3 percent of the civilian noninstitutional U.S. population. The Census Bureau projects continued rapid growth but at a decreasing rate than in the past. The population totals may exceed 31 million by the year 2000 and 96 million by 2050. According to the Census Bureau, Hispanic Americans may surpass African Americans as the largest U.S. minority group by the year 2005. While Hispanics present a varied social and economic portrait, they are likely to be young and economically active. As a group, they tend to trail the rest of the U.S. population in terms of educational attainment, occupational status and income. Hispanics are much more likely to be living below the poverty level and less likely to have health insurance than other U.S. populations. The origins and migration patterns vary both between and among the various groups. Each group has tended to settle in a few states with close to 90 percent of all Hispanics living in just nine states. Low educational attainment, combined at times with a lack of English language and other job skills, tends to confine Hispanics to the lower-paying, less stable and more hazardous occupations. Low income and larger family size translate into higher poverty rates, particularly among children. That, in turn, may affect children's ability to realize their full educational potential. Still, Hispanics, particularly men, have high labor force participation rates and will become an expanding part of the future labor force. As such, they will be expected to contribute to the retirement benefits of an ever aging U.S. population.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1990

Outlook 2000. The major trends.

The American economy is expected to grow by 30 percent between 1988 and 2000, while the labor force will increase by 16 percent. This summary of trends for the economy, the labor force, industries, and occupations also looks at some implications of the projections. For example, continued growth opens the way to a more equitable labor market in the future, but only if workers have the education and training needed by employers.

Employment↗

PubMed1981

[Childrearing environment and fertility in contemporary Japan (author's transl)].

This study focused on the decrease in the marital fertility rate and attempted to clarify some traits in childrearing behavior which are responsible for the low fertility. Regarding the increase in difficulties in childrearing, the author pointed out the necessity and possibility of fertility study from the viewpoint of childrearing. The author proposed to regard childbearing behavior as a part of childrearing behavior and to explain childbearing behavior by childrearing environment which surrounds the couple's childrearing behavior and childrearing consciousness. Childrearing environment is composed of family formation in the household, labor force status of the mother, housing conditions, nursery facilities, and physical environment in the community; these components are all closely allied. Data obtained from 2375 mothers with preschool children were studied. There were great differences in the degree of mother's participation in the labor foce but there was a large ratio of mothers who did not live with their parents and who wanted to work outside the home if nursery facilities could be affored. Clearly the desire of women of reproductive age to work is very strong and the differences in the labor force participation rate are the result of insufficient socialized child care. The authors found a stratum of women who were strongly orientated towards working but who had chosen to live with the parents as a solution to their child care problem. We could only find small differences in fertility by family formation in the household and by work history of mother when observed. However, when the 2 were combined, there were relatively large differences (1.94-2.65 after 10 years of marriage) which has rarely been observed in social analyses of fertility thus far. The lowest fertility by work history was observed among women who had worked since before their marriages, and the largest differences in fertility between 2 family formation types was found among these women (1.94:2.24). This difference in fertility can be supposed to reflect the difference in child care conditions by family formation in household. As to the reasons for limiting births, differences were not found between these 2 family formation types. Working mothers who relied upon their parents for child care expressed relatively greater anxiety about their child's development status than those mothers in nuclear families where child care was supplied by the nursery schools. It is likely that the trend of working mothers will not diminish, and we must thus anticipate the limit of the mechanism of maintaining the fertility by child care supplied by cohabiting parents. Physical environment in the community was found to be a factor in limiting childbirth and the effect was most conspicuous among women who had continued to work in the nuclear family.

Asia↗

PubMed1985

Marriage and divorce in twentieth century American cohorts.

Marital status life tables have provided a basis for describing the marriage, divorce, and mortality experience of U.S. cohorts born 1888-1950. In brief, marriage occurred earlier and became more universal from the earliest cohorts to those of the late 1930s. More recent cohorts show declines in the proportion ever marrying and increases in the mean age at marriage. Period data for 1980 and cumulative cohort data by age suggest the likelihood of a continuing retreat from first marriage. Divorce has been rising steadily, with the latest cohorts indicating that 46 percent of male marriages and 42 percent of female marriages will end in divorce. Period data for males in 1980 raise the possibility that levels of divorce may have reached a peak, but cumulative cohort data by age show no such pattern. The present results are consistent with the view that a fundamental change in the traditional concept of marriage is underway. Traditional marriage involved the husband providing the wife with economic support and protection in return for her companionship and maternal services. Strong social pressures urged men and women to marry, and made the coveted services married persons provided each other difficult to obtain elsewhere. Recent economic changes have undermined the social and economic forces that maintained the institution of marriage. The U.S. economy has grown to include a large service sector in its labor force, and that growth has produced a dramatic increase in female labor force opportunities (Oppenheimer, 1970). The resultant large scale participation of women in economic activity blurs the traditional division of labor by sex, and goes to the very heart of the traditional marriage "bargain." At the same time, economic changes have weakened family ties by encouraging lower fertility, stressing achieved as opposed to ascribed characteristics, and fostering geographical mobility (Goode, 1970). The "marital union" of the past may be giving way to the "marital partnership" of the future, which will accommodate informal as well as formal marriages, less dependence between spouses, greater egalitarianism, lower fertility, and higher levels of divorce.

Actuarial Analysis↗

PubMed1997

Aging of the population in Japan and its implications to the other Asian countries.

"The speed at which Japan's population is aging is mainly a result of its rapid economic development, which is common to many other East Asian countries. Two aspects of the aging of the population are an increasing share of the elderly and a declining labor force. The larger the number of elderly, the more the transfer of income between generations, and the fiscal burden rises. The shrinking workforce will lower the economic growth directly, and indirectly through the falling saving ratio. However, the negative impacts from aging can largely be offset by stimulating participation of older persons in the labor force."

Adult↗

PubMed1982

Moving back vs. moving on: the concept of home in the decision to remigrate.

"This study examines the effect of information and psychic costs on the remigration propensity of the U.S. labor force. Specifically, the study investigates how the proximity of a potential migration destination to a previous residence, and familiarity with this residence, affect information and psychic costs, and thus, remigration propensity. In this respect it is hypothesized that familiarity with, and location of, a prior residence are significant determinants of both the migration destination and the allocative efficiency of the remigration process." Several specific hypotheses are developed and tested using data on interstate, nonreturn, repeat migration of the white male labor force over the period 1965-1970.

Americas↗

PubMed1997

Hispanics and worksite health promotion: review of the past, demands for the future.

During the last 15 years, reports, books, and published papers have demonstrated the positive health benefits of comprehensive health promotion and disease prevention interventions at the worksite. Although the progress made in worksite health promotion should not be understated, experts agree that it is time to step forward and address the new demands of the changing labor force. One area of intervention that needs to be more aggressively addressed is that of minority populations. Because work force projections show the high participation rate that Hispanics will have in the future labor force, the Hispanic population should be one of the targets of worksite health promotion. This paper reviews how employee health promotion programs have addressed Hispanic workers in the past and establishes directions for the future.

Health Behavior↗

PubMed2000

The erosion of retiree health benefits and retirement behavior: implications for the disability insurance program.

The effects of retiree health insurance on the decision to retire have not been examined until recently. It is an area of increasing significance because of rising health care costs for retirees, the uncertain future of Medicare, and increased life expectancy. In general, studies suggest that individual retirement decisions are strongly responsive to the availability of retiree health insurance. Early retiree benefits and retirement behavior are also important because they may affect the Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) program. It is not apparent that if a person loses retiree health benefits, or if fewer people are eligible for retiree health benefits in general, claims for DI will increase. The potential 2-year loss of health benefits may be a deterrent to leaving the labor force and claiming DI, although persons who are unable to work would leave the labor force even without health benefits. In order to understand how the decline in retiree health benefits may affect enrollment in DI, analysts must at least incorporate the role of coverage under the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985 (COBRA). That act provides many people with access to health insurance during the 2-year gap between eligibility for DI and Medicare. In fact, persons with sufficient means to retire early could use the income from Disability Insurance to buy COBRA coverage during the first 2 years of DI coverage. Determining the effect of the erosion of retiree health benefits on DI must account properly for the role of other factors that affect DI eligibility and participation. The financial incentives of Social Security, pension plans, retirement savings programs, health status, the availability of health insurance, and other factors influencing retirement decisions must be taken fully into account in order to isolate the precise effect of retiree health benefits.

Health Benefit Plans, Employee↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Spatial mobility and reasons for migration of Japanese women.

This paper discloses, istly, the spatial mobility of Japanese women and its change mainly between 1970 and 1980, through comparison with the men's mobility, in respect of distance of movement, age patterns, and labor force status, using population census data. Secondly, the chief reasons for the migration of women by types of migratory flows are examined using the data derived from the survey on reasons for migration conducted in 1981 by the Land Agency of the Government of Japan. Results show that the spatial mobility of Japanese women is smaller than that of men in long distance movements but is almost the same in short distance moves, and that the age pattern of spatial mobility of the women is nearly the same between both distances of movement. Also, it is disclosed that the mobility of women not in the labor force is higher for the whole country but lower in metropolitan areas than that for men. The prime reason for the migration of women is employment, the as same as that for men for the whole nation, but this varies between the types of migratory flows.

Asia↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Employment opportunities for older adults: engineering design and research issues.

A challenge facing the engineering community is to find ways to integrate older people into the labor force. Despite laws regarding age discrimination and compulsory retirement, older people's participation in the labor force is declining. Unless strategies are developed to keep older people in the workforce, the issues of economic dependency and intergenerational equity are likely to become formidable in the near future. There are a number of areas where engineering applications can enhance older adults' employment opportunities. These include training, workplace and equipment design, and job design. An overview of current knowledge regarding aging and work is provided. Gaps in the knowledge base are identified as areas for research. Examples of how engineering can contribute to the integration of older people into work settings are presented.

Age Factors↗