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PubMedDate not supplied

[Gains in life expectancy by sex and age in Mexico].

"This work estimates the gains in life expectancy, or average years a person lives, at a national level [in Mexico] during the 1950-1980 period by sex and age of the population structure, referring as well to the changes undergone in such gains. An exhaustive presentation of the Pollard method is made in order to enable us to appreciate the advantages and limitations of the methodology used to quantify the gains in life expectancy. It also shows, graphically, the differences by sex and age from which the gain distributions are derived." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Age Factors↗
PubMed1996

[Life expectancy and cause of death in dogs. I. The situation in mixed breeds and various dog breeds].

The present study on life expectancy and cause of death is based upon data from 9,248 dogs. The entire sample showed a life expectancy of 10.0 years. The most frequent cause of death was tumors (27.3%), followed by cardiac and circulatory ailments (16.3%). The causes of death also showed a breed-specific distribution. The mean age attained in various breeds differed, ranging from 6.8 years in the Berner Sennenhund to 13.0 years in the Pudel. Dogs of mixed breeding tended not to differ from purebreds either in their life expectancy or in their cause of death.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

The assessment of patient life-expectancy: how accurate are urologists and oncologists?

OBJECTIVE: To assess the degree of accuracy, precision and consistency with which consultant urologists, oncologists and junior doctors predict a patient's 10-year life-expectancy. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Eighteen doctors of varying seniority independently examined 70 patient case scenarios containing detailed medical histories; 13 of these cases were duplicate scenarios. Bland-Altman analyses were used to compare doctors' estimates of the probability of each hypothetical patient surviving 10 years with that calculated using actuarial methods. Intra- and interdoctor reliability were also assessed. RESULTS: Compared with actuarial estimates, doctors underestimated the 10-year survival probability by an overall mean of 10.8% (95% confidence interval, 10.1-11.5%). The 18 individual doctors ranged from a mean underestimation of 33.2% to a mean overestimation of 3.9%. Variation around these means was considerable for each doctor, the standard deviations being 14.5-20.9%. Inter-doctor reliability was 0.58, while overall intra-doctor reliability was 0.74, but for individual doctors was 0.31-0.94. Junior doctors were less accurate in their predictions than the senior doctors. Five doctors tended to overestimate where life-expectancy was poor and underestimate where it was good. CONCLUSIONS: Doctors were poor at predicting 10-year survival, tending to underestimate when compared with actuarial estimates. There was also substantial variability both within and between doctors. The inaccuracy, imprecision and inconsistency amongst the doctors in assessing patient life-expectancy is an important finding and has significant implications for managing patients. Many patients may be denied treatment after a pessimistic assessment of life-expectancy and (less commonly) some may inappropriately be offered treatment after an optimistic assessment. The particular inaccuracy in junior doctors compared with their senior colleagues also highlights the need for training. The development of a tool to assist in both training and clinical practice has the potential to improve doctors' decision-making and patient care.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Month of birth and life expectancy: role of gender and age in a comparative approach.

The effects of month of birth (MOB) on life expectancy of a German subpopulation was investigated. Data from people who died in North Rhine Westphalia in the years 1984 ( n=188,515) and 1999 ( n=188,850) were analyzed. For comparative purposes, all deaths that occurred at an age of <50 years were excluded (1984: 8.4%; 1999: 6.2%). In general, individuals born in May through July had the lowest age at death (1984: 75.27+/-0.09 years; 1999: 77.58+/-0.09 years), while those born between October and December had the highest (1984: 75.98+/-0.08 years; 1999: 78.35+/-0.09 years), supporting earlier findings. The observed amplitudes (differences between highest and lowest values) were more pronounced in men than in women. When comparing these data of MOB effects on life expectancy with earlier findings in Australia, Austria, Denmark, Ukraine, and the USA, it is evident that a negative correlation exists between the average age at death and the MOB amplitudes. Separate analyses by gender, possible for the data from Germany, the Ukraine, and the USA, revealed a significant negative correlation for men, but not for women. A new hypothesis is therefore presented describing an influence of life quality, as reflected by average life expectancy, on the extent of MOB effects; for example, seasonally variable sensitivities during pregnancy/early childhood.

Aged↗
PubMed2005

Influence of level of education on disability free life expectancy by sex: the ILSA study.

PURPOSE: To assess the effect of education on Disability Free Life Expectancy among older Italians, using a hierarchical model as indicator of disability, with estimates based on the multistate life table method and IMaCh software. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging which considered a random sample of 5632 individuals. RESULTS: Total life expectancy ranged from 16.5 years for men aged 65 years to 6 years for men aged 80. The age range for women was 19.6 and 8.4 years, respectively. For both sexes, increasing age was associated with a lower probability of recovery from a mild state of disability, with a greater probability of worsening for all individuals presenting an independent state at baseline, and with a greater probability of dying except for women from a mild state of disability. A medium/high educational level was associated with a greater probability of recovery only in men with a mild state of disability at baseline, and with a lower probability of worsening in both sexes, except for men with a mild state of disability at baseline. DISCUSSION: The positive effects of high education are well established in most research work and, being a modifiable factor, strategies focused on increasing level of education and, hence strengthening access to information and use of health services would produce significant benefits.

Aged↗
PubMed2005

A potential decline in life expectancy in the United States in the 21st century.

Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we conclude that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end.

Aged↗
PubMed2004

[Impact of underlying causes of death on life expectancy in Salvador and São Paulo, Brazil, 1996].

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate and compare the impact of some underlying causes of death on life expectancy of residents in two metropolitan areas. METHODS: It was carried out a cross-sectional descriptive ecological study based on official data (deaths and populations) and estimates of residents in the cities Salvador and São Paulo, Brazil, in 1996. The impact of different causes of death on life expectancy was evaluated by means of competitive risks and life tables. RESULTS: Life expectancy for males at birth in both cities (64.1 years in Salvador and 63.4 years in São Paulo) was lower than for females (70.3 years in Salvador and 73.9 years in São Paulo). Communicable diseases have a major impact on the mortality in the first years of age, external causes are very important especially for men in intermediate ages, and cardiovascular diseases have a main role in elderly. Ranked by decreasing importance, causes of death for males in both cities were cardiovascular diseases, external causes, neoplasms, respiratory diseases and infectious and parasitic diseases. For females, the most important were cardiovascular diseases, then neoplasms, respiratory diseases, infectious and parasitic diseases, and external causes. CONCLUSIONS: The well-known social gap between the two capitals affects first the basic level, from availability and quality of public services to data provided by these services, which impair a more detailed analysis.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

International mortality rates and life expectancy: selected countries.

The total U.S. mortality rate for men and women, all causes combined, continues to decrease, but remains less favorable than that in many other developed countries. The 1995 age-adjusted rate for men was ranked 9th among 15 selected industrialized countries and that for women 11th. In 1996 the U.S. age-adjusted rate dropped to a record low of 491.6 per 100,000 population. Since 1990 this rate decreased substantially more among U.S. nonwhites than whites. The rates dropped 11 and 6 percent for nonwhite men and women, respectively, and 8 and 2 percent for their white counterparts. Thus, the gender gap continues to narrow as do the racial differentials in U.S. life expectancy and mortality. International mortality data for 1995 indicate that Iceland had the best recorded age-adjusted rate for men (487.4 per 100,000 population)--just ahead of Japan which has had the lowest mortality rate for more than 20 years. Age-adjusted death rates among U.S. nonwhite men and for men in Scotland were ranked the lowest, while among women, the worst mortality rates were evident among the Danish and Scottish women. Although life expectancy values are improving in all 15 countries, U.S. longevity continues to fare poorly in comparison to other developed countries. The U.S. life expectancy for men was ranked 13th for the 1990-1995 period and 11th for women. Longevity was the highest for men in Japan and Iceland, 76.4 and 76.3 years, respectively, and the lowest for men in Finland (72.0 years). For women, longevity was the best in Japan at 82.4 years, and the worst in Denmark (77.8 years). Life expectancies for men during 1995-2000 are projected to improve from 1.6 years in New Zealand to 0.4 years in Japan. For women, life expectancy will remain at 80.8 years in Sweden while increasing 0.8 years in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and New Zealand.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

A divergent pattern of the sex difference in life expectancy: Sweden and Japan, early 1970s-late 1990s.

For most of the 20th century the sex gap in life expectancy in the industrialized countries has widened in favor of women. By the early 1980s a reversal in the long-term pattern of this differential had occurred in some countries, where it reached a maximum and thereafter followed a declining trend. Of particular interest to the present investigation is the anomalous experience of Japan, where unlike other high-income countries the female advantage in life expectancy has been expanding. We contrast the case of Japan with that of Sweden, where, like many other high-income nations, the sex differential in longevity has been narrowing in recent years. We observe that in Sweden, until the early 1980s, the sex gap in life expectancy (female-male) exceeded that of Japan; but this situation reversed in subsequent periods, when the Swedish differential narrowed and that of Japan widened. A decomposition analysis indicates that these divergent patterns since 1980 have resulted mainly from larger than expected reductions in male mortality in Sweden due to heart disease and from accidents and violence, lung cancer and "other" cancers. In Japan, death rates for men and women from heart disease--which is a leading cause of death--have tended to decline more or less at the same pace since the early 1980s; and with regard to lung cancer, and "other" neoplasms, male death rates in Japan have been rising while those of women have either declined or risen more slowly. Moreover, during the 1990s, male and female suicide rates rose in Japan, but the rates for men went up faster. Altogether, the net effect of these divergent mortality trends for men and women in Japan underlie much of the observed widening of its sex differential in longevity in recent years.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

Life expectancy and functional prognosis after femoral neck fractures in hemodialysis patients.

OBJECTIVES: To identify whether differences exist in the outcomes between patients undergoing hemodialysis and elderly nonhemodialysis patients with a femoral neck fracture. DESIGN: Retrospective review. SETTING: Level 1 trauma center. PATIENTS/INTERVENTIONS: A total of 71 femoral neck fractures in 62 patients undergoing hemodialysis treated nonoperatively or operatively. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS: Clinical outcomes were analyzed to identify factors that may be correlated with life expectancy and functional prognosis. RESULTS: The overall survival rates in this study at 1-year and 5-years postfracture were found to be 89.8% and 51.5%, respectively. There were significant correlations among the survival rate, patients' age, type of treatment, prefracture ambulation status, and prefracture activities of daily living status. However, using multivariate analysis, the only significant predictor of life expectancy was prefracture ambulation status. As for functional prognosis, the rates of total ambulation recovery and total activities of daily living recovery at 1-year postfracture were 50.0% and 71.2%, respectively. Both patients' age and age at the onset of hemodialysis may contribute considerably to functional prognosis in patients undergoing hemodialysis after femoral neck fracture. CONCLUSIONS: The present study suggests that the clinical outcomes of patients with femoral neck fractures who undergo hemodialysis are considerably superior to those of previous studies. In addition, when those fractures are treated surgically with specific management in patients undergoing hemodialysis, it may be possible to expect a life expectancy and functional prognosis similar to elderly nonhemodialysis patients with hip fractures.

Adult↗
PubMed1989

Relationship between life expectancy and endogenous DNA single-strand breakage, strand break induction and DNA repair capacity in the adult housefly, Musca domestica.

The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between genomic damage and the physiological rate of aging. Endogenous DNA single-strand breaks, susceptibility of DNA to exogenously induced strand breaks and the capacity to repair strand breakage were compared, using the alkaline elution technique, in flies of the same chronological age but with different life expectancy. Distinctions between physiological and chronological ages were made (1) by experimentally altering the life spans of houseflies by varying the level of physical activity, and (2) by phenotypic selection of short- and long-lived cohorts from the same population. The degree of endogenous DNA single-strand breaks was found to be unrelated to physiological age. However, flies selected for relatively shorter life expectancy exhibited a greater susceptibility to exogenously-induced (gamma-irradiation) single-strand breakage. Flies with a longer life expectancy exhibited a more efficient repair capacity to reverse single-strand breakage than those with a shorter life expectancy.

Aging↗
PubMed1990

Measuring medical cost and life expectancy impacts of changes in cigarette sales.

A change in cigarette sales triggers changes in medical-care costs and in years of life expectancy. Changes in sales result from changes in excise tax policy, agricultural policy, cigarette design, smoking behavior, or anti-smoking laws. The model uses data on medical costs, life expectancy, cigarette price elasticity, and smoking demographics to estimate medical-cost and life-year impacts for any change in cigarette sales. It takes into account the medical costs incurred by quitters over their extra years of life, the asymmetry of impacts for increases and decreases in sales, and the delayed medical effects for ages not yet subject to the health risks of smoking. For example, a 1% decrease in U.S. cigarette sales increases life expectancy in the United States by 1.45 million years and increases medical-care costs by $405 million for ages 25 to 79. This amounts only to $280 in added medical costs for each extra year of life. By generating aggregate health impacts at the margin, the model becomes a valuable tool for evaluating programs that affect smoking.

Adult↗
PubMed1993

[Shortening of life expectancy in patients with membranous nephropathy--based on 20 years follow up study].

It is not certain whether the life expectancy of patients with membranous nephropathy is shorter than that of an age-matched healthy population. Forty-one patients (21 males, 20 females) aged between 16 and 70 years (average age: 33.3 years) were followed for 20 years. The patients were divided into two groups: group I (n = 18), consisting of patients in whom nephrotic syndrome persisted for more than two years or until death, and group II (n = 23), consisting of patients except for group I. The non-survival criteria are death or renal death. Twelve patients (29.3%) died during the study period. Eight patients belonged to group I and 4 to group II. The causes of death in group I patients were end-stage renal failure in 3 cases, ischemic heart disease in 1 case, subarachnoid hemorrhage in 1 case, malignancy in 2 cases, suicide in 1 case, and those in the group II patients were pneumonia, malignancy, cerebral softening, and diabetes mellitus, respectively. Eight patients who died in group I had a significantly longer difference between their actual life span (ALS) and life expectancy (LE) and a significantly smaller ratio of ALS to LE than the patients who died in group II (ALS-LE: -29.9 +/- 4.5 years in group I vs. -9.0 +/- 6.8 years in group II, p < 0.05, ALS x 100/LE: 22.5 +/- 8.0% in group I vs. 80.9 +/- 25.2% in group II, p < 0.05). In group I, the ratio of observed to expected death was 4.76 (95% confidence interval, 2.05 to 9.37) and significantly higher than that of the control population. In group II, however, the ratio was 1.09 (95% confidence interval, 0.30 to 2.80), and the difference from the control population was not statistically significant. These results suggest that longstanding nephrotic syndrome is associated with a shortened life expectancy in patients with membranous nephropathy.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1997

ILLM--inductive learning algorithm as a method for prediction of life expectancy achieving.

The aim of the paper was to use inductive learning algorithm ILLM in the field of epidemiology, for prediction the life expectancy achieving. Data base comprised results of epidemiological investigation in some regions of Croatia. Overall accuracies for different samples and corresponding rules produced by ILLM algorithm, showed some interesting results. Algorithm can be seen as having the capacity to forecast 'achieving the life expectancy'. In the same time algorithm was not able to make a good forecast for 'not achieving the life expectancy'.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

The Tokuhashi score: significant predictive value for the life expectancy of patients with breast cancer with spinal metastases.

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective study of 55 consecutive patients with spinal metastases secondary to breast cancer who underwent surgery. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the predictive value of the Tokuhashi score for life expectancy in patients with breast cancer with spinal metastases. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: The score, composed of 6 parameters each rated from 0 to 2, has been proposed by Tokuhashi and colleagues for the prognostic assessment of patients with spinal metastases. METHODS: A total of 55 patients surgically treated for vertebral metastases secondary to breast cancer were studied. The score was calculated for each patient and, according to Tokuhashi, the patients were divided into 3 groups with different life expectancy according to their total number of scoring points. In a second step, the grouping for prognosis was modified to get a better correlation of the predicted and definitive survival. RESULTS: Applying the Tokuhashi score for the estimation of life expectancy of patients with breast cancer with vertebral metastases provided very reliable results. However, the original analysis by Tokuhashi showed a limited correlation between predicted and real survival for each prognostic group. Therefore, our patients were divided into modified prognostic groups regarding their total number of scoring points, leading to a higher significance of the predicted prognosis in each group (P < 0.0001), and a better correlation of the predicted and real survival. CONCLUSION: The modified Tokuhashi score assists in decision making based on reliable estimators of life expectancy in patients with spinal metastases secondary to breast cancer.

Breast Neoplasms↗
PubMed1994

[Prognosis and life expectancy in primary biliary cirrhosis].

The aim of the present study was to investigate prognosis and life expectancy in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. We retrospectively analysed 59 patients from western Austria over 15 years (mean 6 years). The results of the present study were compared with the average life expectancy of the population of western Austria and with the results of the Mayo study published in 1989. The mean survival time in our study was 112.7 months, 25% were dead by 132 months. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a 95% probability to survive 1 year and a 84% probability to be alive at 5 years. Asymptomatic patients had a significantly better prognosis than symptomatic patients. In comparison with the Mayo study the patients in our study had a better prognosis and in comparison with the normal population a significantly worse life expectancy.

Adult↗
PubMed2002

[Active life expectancy in Germany and in the United States. A cohort analysis based on the "German Socio-Economic Panel" (GSOEP) and the "Panel Study of Income Dynamics" (PSID)].

Using the method of multistate life-tables, the article presents results on active life expectancy on the basis of the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). The transitions into and out of active life are based on event-history analysis and are calculated for different cohorts. Compared to cross-sectional analysis, the longitudinal analysis carried out here describes active life expectancy with reference to single birth cohorts. Results show that in Germany there has been substantial improvement in active life expectancy while in the USA there has been some deterioration.

Activities of Daily Living↗
PubMed2003

Healthy life expectancy in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China.

Sullivan's method and a regression model were used to calculate healthy life expectancy (HALE) for men and women in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Hong Kong SAR) of China. These methods need estimates of the prevalence and information on disability distributions of 109 diseases and HALE for 191 countries by age, sex and region of the world from the WHO's health assessment of 2000. The population of Hong Kong SAR has one of the highest healthy life expectancies in the world. Sullivan's method gives higher estimates than the classic linear regression method. Although Sullivan's method accurately calculates the influence of disease prevalence within small areas and regions, the regression method can approximate HALE for all economies for which information on life expectancy is available. This paper identifies some problems of the two methods and discusses the accuracy of estimates of HALE that rely on data from the WHO assessment.

Adolescent↗