[Population forecasts 1998-2050].
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"Population projections in the absence of migration--based on observed or estimated mortality and fertility rates since 1851--help provide a long-term assessment of migration in Quebec and Canada, through the comparison of census data with the results of such projections. Without migration since 1851, Quebec would have had 12 million inhabitants in 1991 instead of the observed 7 million. For Canada, the projection [excluding] migration since 1871 results in a population of 26 million persons (without Newfoundland), this being one million less than the latest census total." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)
"On the night of the 1996 Census, 5.4 per cent of the people counted in Australia were staying away from home (visitors), compared to 4.6 per cent in 1986. Queensland's share of the nation's visitors has risen since 1986, largely at the expense of Western Australia's. Queensland is now the most popular destination for interstate and overseas visitors, while New South Wales hosts a large proportion of intrastate visitors. But the overall picture is partly obscured because the Census missed around 100,000 overseas visitors."
"This paper is a comparison of two contrasting methods for projecting population at the regional and state levels. A projection of the U.S. Bureau of the Census employs standard demographic methods, while the population projection by Data Resources, Inc., is based on economic opportunity. The methodological differences between these two projections are discussed, and the projections for the year 2000 are compared....The U.S. Bureau of the Census projects population decline in the Northeast and rapid growth in the West while Data Resources, Inc., projects some population growth in the Northeast and less rapid growth in the West."
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"More and more population forecasts are being produced with associated 95 percent confidence intervals. How confident are we of those confidence intervals? In this paper, we produce a simulated dataset in which we know both past and future population sizes, and the true 95 percent confidence intervals at various future dates. We use the past data to produce population forecasts and estimated 95 percent confidence intervals using various functional forms. We, then, compare the true 95 percent confidence intervals with the estimated ones. This comparison shows that we are not at all confident of the estimated 95 percent confidence intervals." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
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"Recent archaeological, ethnohistorical and ecological evidence has begun to challenge the view that 'civilizations' failed to develop in the Amazon basin due to limitations of the tropical forest environment. As a result, estimates of the native population in 1492 have become an issue of debate. These estimates are evaluated in the light of the ethnohistorical research on the Ecuadorian headwaters. Estimates are considered by examining estimated habitat densities, the impact of Old World diseases and contemporary evidence for native cultures. The study is based on documents found in archives in Quito, Seville, Madrid and Rome. It is suggested that the population of the Amazon basin in 1492 probably exceeded 5 million but that expectations of substantially higher populations appear unfounded."
"This paper...focuses on two related themes which together enable us to put the emergence of Bangkok as a primate city in the 19th century in clearer perspective. First, we review population estimates for Bangkok. Here, the major point is this: Bangkok's population was much smaller than often suggested in the 19th century.... As long as the area of Bangkok was confined, and the population small, city regulation could be maintained within the traditional Siamese social structures, with Bangkok being, in effect, a royal domain.... The second part of our paper looks at the creation and the role of the Ministry of the Capital, formed in 1892.... The linking [of] Bangkok administrative structure with royal interests produced both a physical and economic stamp on Bangkok which has had an enduring effect on Bangkok's development."
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The author forecasts the population of the Etimesgut Health District in Turkey for the year 2025 under certain assumptions. "According to these basic assumptions [the] crude birth rate will decrease to 14 per thousand and [the] crude death rate will increase to 9.47 per thousand within 35 years.... According to these results, the population pyramids of the Etimesgut Health District were drawn for different years. As it will be seen, the population structure will not be like today's developed countries' population structure until the year 2070." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
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