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PubMed1987

A survey of Census Bureau population projection methods.

"Population projections methods of the U.S. Census Bureau draw upon several different traditions of forecasting: demographic accounting, judgmental, time series, deterministic, and explanatory. This paper reviews each of the forecasting traditions in population projections, describes the U.S. Census Bureau's current methods for national and state population projections, and proposes new hybrid approaches such as demographic-time series methods for national fertility projections and economic-demographic methods for state migration projections. Throughout the article, possible parallels with forecasting in other disciplines are noted."

Americas↗
PubMed1986

A comparative census study of Danish schizophrenic patients in 1977 and 1982.

The present register-based investigation includes all hospitalized schizophrenic patients in Denmark on census days in September 1977 and September 1982. In 1977 the rates were 107.8 and 88.1 per 100,000 inhabitants aged 15 years or more for males and females, respectively, and correspondingly 99.2 and 71.5 in 1982. The prevalence rates of first admitted on the census days had decreased slightly in the older age groups from 1977 to 1982 but were unchanged in the age groups 15-44 years. The long-stay groups were smaller but at the same time the rates of re-admitted younger males had increased. Only a few changes between the distribution of the two groups' marital status occurred and there was still a considerable excess of single and divorced among the schizophrenic patients. More patients were in day-patient care and in nursing homes and fewer were admitted as in-patients, although in 1982 56% of the males and 52% of the females were in the latter type of care. The percentage of committed patients decreased from 12.6 to 9.1 for the males and from 8.9 to 7.0 for the females. This decrease was most pronounced in the group of patients admitted because of dangerous behaviour. The results are discussed especially in relation to reductions in available beds in psychiatric institutions.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1987

Heart disease mortality following widowhood: some results from the OPCS Longitudinal Study. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys.

Many studies have suggested that following the experience of 'stressful' life events the risks of myocardial infarction, accidents and perhaps other diseases are elevated. In the OPCS Longitudinal Study routinely collected data on deaths, and deaths of a spouse occurring in a 1% sample of the population of England and Wales in the period 1971-1981 are linked together, and with 1971 census records of sample members. The timing and patterns of death following the potentially very stressful event of conjugal bereavement may thus be analysed. Overall the mortality (from ischaemic heart disease) was less than 10% in excess of that in all members of the LS sample. As in many earlier studies, some increases in death rates shortly after widowhood are observed. Unusually, for deaths from all causes these increases are more marked in widows than in widowers with, for example, a two-fold increase in mortality from all causes in the first month after widowhood. However, no peak of post-bereavement mortality from ischaemic heart disease is clearly established in either sex. Although the study is large, with a well-chosen control group, only a limited characterisation of study members from data collected in the census is possible. In particular, no measures of personality, behaviour or diet are available. Investigation of potential effects of social or familial support, as measured by household structure and numbers of children, led to equivocal results. Several possible explanations for the increased mortality rates are examined. Hypotheses based on common marital environment, homogamy or simultaneous accidental death are seen to be of very limited value. The observed patterns, although consistent with an early effect of a stressful life event, do not suggest that stress following bereavement leads to an excess of ischaemic heart disease mortality.

Coronary Disease↗
PubMed1992

Is magnitude of co-payment effect related to income? Using census data for health services research.

This study: (1) describes and evaluates a method for estimating household income using home addresses in conjunction with census data, and (2) uses this method in a study designed to determine if the introduction of copayments caused primary care office visit rates to decrease more for lower income enrollees than for higher income enrollees of a large health maintenance organization (HMO). Each step in the process of linking income estimates for small census units (block groups) to specific home addresses is described and the validity and precision of these estimates is assessed through comparisons of estimated income with self-reported income for residents of the Puget Sound area of Washington state. Although subject to considerable measurement error, this approach provided valid income estimates. This method was then used to estimate the incomes of over 20,000 households of HMO enrollees in a controlled study of the relationship between copayment effect on visit rates and enrollee income. Copayments were found to have a similar effect on higher and lower income enrollees.

Adult↗
PubMed2001

The application of visual census on Mediterranean rocky habitats.

In this study we examined the effect of: observer presence; observer speed; and the impact that multiple surveys had on the number of counted fish in a visual census survey in a typical Mediterranean rocky habitat. SCUBA observer presence had no influence on the number of fish per survey. An improvement in the methodology to estimate the number of fish was demonstrated by using two different speeds: slow speed for benthic species and higher speed for epibenthic ones. No differences in the number of fish per survey were found among successive surveys along the same transects, even with the shortest time interval used: 5 min. We also examined the ability of observers to estimate fish length during visual census by using wooden fish models. Significant differences in size estimations were found using two different estimation methods (i.e. size-classes estimates and continuous measures). Estimating fish length to a size class was more accurate in estimating size, while transformed size to calculate biomass from length estimates was more accurate using continuous measures.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Prescribing at the Primary Care Group level: census data and prescribing indicators.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between prescribing and morbidity, mortality and deprivation for the 481 Primary Care groups set up on 1 April 1999, by examining the prescribing of their constituent practices in the year 1998/99, i.e. the year before. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. OUTCOME MEASURES: Set of 11 prescribing indicators taken from the Prescription Pricing Authority 'Toolkit' system; census measures of morbidity and deprivation and Standardized Mortality Ratio for those aged 75 and under. SETTING: All practices in England belonging to a Primary Care Group. RESULTS: Several of the indicators showed strong correlation with morbidity, mortality and, to a weaker extent, with deprivation. There was a negative correlation between the census-based measures and choice of more expensive alternatives or greater duration prescriptions for antibiotic prescribing and with the use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT). Conversely, there was a positive correlation with use of premium products and drugs of limited therapeutic value. CONCLUSION: Practices in areas of greater need (as measured by permanent sickness and Standardized Mortality Ratio) seem to be trying to hold down costs by the way they prescribe antibiotics. Conversely, their use of premium price products pushes up their costs in the absence of clear evidence concerning compliance. The use of HRT is low in areas of high overall need.

Anti-Bacterial Agents↗
PubMed2000

Highly reliable genetic identification of individual northern hairy-nosed wombats from single remotely collected hairs: a feasible censusing method.

The highly endangered northern hairy-nosed wombat (Lasiorhinus krefftii) is extremely difficult to study in the wild, and its numbers correspondingly difficult to estimate. Disturbance to the animals caused by trapping and radio-tracking may not only constitute an excessive risk to the population's viability, but may also yield biased data. The results of a pilot study are presented, which clearly show noninvasive genotyping to be a highly feasible and reliable alternative censusing method for L. krefftii. The protocol can identify individual wombats from single hairs collected remotely at burrow entrances, using: (i) a panel of microsatellite markers giving individual-specific genotypes; and (ii) a Y-linked sexing marker in combination with a single-copy X-linked amplification control. Using just the eight most variable microsatellites (of 20 available), only one in 200 pairs of full-sibs are predicted to share the same genotype. From 12 wombat hair samples collected on tape suspended over burrow entrances, three known female, two known male and an unknown wombat of each sex were identified. The approach will allow censusing of individuals that evade capture, and will also reveal some otherwise problematic aspects of the behaviour of this elusive animal.

Animals↗
PubMed1991

Household modelling and forecasting--dynamic approaches with use of linked census data.

The author proposes improved methods of household modeling, using dynamic models rather than the headship rate method. "Reasons are discussed why this method has been criticised in recent years.... The advantages of dynamic models are discussed, and a number of alternative dynamic models of household formation and dissolution are presented. The data source used is the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys 1% longitudinal study, which contains linked information on 500,000 people in the 1971 and 1981 England and Wales Censuses of Population."

Developed Countries↗
PubMedDate not supplied

The structure of the human population of the Isles of Scilly: inferences from surnames and birthplaces listed in census and marriage records.

Investigation of the commonality of surnames among the isles of Scilly using data covering the period from 1726 to the present, yields coefficients of relationship by isonymy which are compared with measures of relationship based on marital migration rates. The coefficients of relationship, calculated from lists of surnames in the marriage registers, and from lists of male surnames from the 1851 and 1871 censuses, are higher than any values yet reported for other British populations. However, the coefficient of relationship between the islands as a whole and the mainland of England and Wales is similar to the values reported for other English populations. Comparison of coefficients of relationship by marital isonymy show an overall decrease in the frequency of such marriages over time and a slight tendency to avoid marriages between close relatives. The lack of correlation between coefficients of relationship by random isonymy and marital migration rates derived from the census data is believed to be due to fluctuations in marriage patterns over time, the marital migration rates accounting for single generational patterns, while the coefficients of relationship by isonymy reflect the accumulated breeding structure. The chief influences on the coefficients of relationship appear to have been the founder effect, coupled with a long history of inter-island marriage but a high rate of endogamy from the islands as a whole.

England↗
PubMed1997

Alternative medicine in Vermont--a census of practitioners: prevalence, patterns of use, and national projections.

The number of alternative/holistic practitioners in Vermont was estimated by two methods: scanning advertisements (yellow pages, newspaper and magazine ads, brochures), and by word-of-mouth canvassing. We located 897 Vermonters who derive most of their annual income practicing at least 1 of 97 different types of alternative medicine and therapy. Most practitioners were female and most practiced more than one type of healing. Bodyworkers were the most prevalent practitioners, followed by chiropractors, acupuncturists, herbalists, and holistic psychotherapists. On a per-capita basis, there is 1 alternative practitioner per 652 Vermonters (or 153 practitioners per 100,000 population). This census nearly equals that of Vermont's M.D. population. Extrapolating this Vermont census to a nationwide estimate of alternative practitioners suggests there are over 403,000 full-time alternative/holistic healers practicing in the United States.

Complementary Therapies↗
PubMed1984

Application of a capture-recapture method (the Bernoulli census) to historical epidemiology.

Obstacles to historical epidemiologic research are formidable, especially for periods prior to the 19th century. Linguistic and paleographic difficulties are compounded by haphazard contemporary documentation and subsequent archival wastage, making real variations in disease frequency difficult to distinguish from record loss. This report investigates the application of a capture-recapture model, adapted from work on mobile animal populations, to this problem or archival loss. With the use of this technique, the original size of a psychiatric case population is estimated from incomplete extant enumerations. The cases are derived fron the Court of Wards and Liveries (1540-1660), the first statutory institution in England responsible for protecting persons legally incompetent due to mental disability. Documentation on this population survives in at least 10 record collections, the most extensive containing at best 82% of all original cases, the least extensive, 1%. Calculations based on extant files indicate a fourfold increase in the incidence of mental disability certifications between 1540-1549 and 1630-1639. The results of applying the Bernoulli census method to these materials eliminate biased archival loss as a plausible explanation for this rise. The origin of these changes in altered court policy or procedure, population growth, or increasing rates of mental disability awaits further investigation. While the Bernoulli census computations with historical data are mathematically equivalent ot those employed in recent epidemiologic applications, this specific data set prompts a conceptual revision of the Bernoulli model from capture to loss of random samples.

Animals↗
PubMed1989

A census of patients waiting for treatment or consultation in surgical specialties in an English health region.

A census of waiting lists in five surgical specialties within the Northern Region has been carried out. In addition to enumerating those patients waiting for inpatient treatment and outpatient consultation, the census characterized lists in terms of the age and sex structure of those waiting; the length of time people had waited; their district of residence and (for inpatients only) the numbers waiting for certain specified operations or procedures. Patients waiting for inpatient treatment were older, overall, than the general population and, within specialties, ophthalmology lists contained a higher proportion of the very elderly whilst ear, nose and throat surgery lists had a younger age-structure. Three-quarters of ophthalmology inpatient lists were made up of patients waiting for cataract surgery, 14 per cent of patients awaiting orthopaedic inpatient treatment were waiting for hip joint replacement and 32 per cent of gynaecology lists comprised women needing sterilization. These data on age-structure and case composition are broadly similar to recent work carried out by Yates's group who restricted their study to longer waiting lists in the West Midlands Region and Wales. When data in the present study were related to the population from which the cases arose, it was found that the prevalence of outpatient waiting was greater than inpatient waiting except for general surgery (where a higher proportion of the population was awaiting inpatient treatment) and in gynaecology (where outpatient and inpatient waiting was equally common).2+ Standardized waiting list ratios (SWLRs) have been calculated to allow comparisons between districts and specialties, free of distortions produced by differing age-structure of populations.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Census of genes expressed in porcine embryos and reproductive tissues by mining an expressed sequence tag database based on human genes.

A total of 98,898 expressed sequence tags (ESTs) derived from embryos and reproductive tissues in pigs were identified in the GenBank "est_others" database. Pig embryos were collected at 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 20, 30, and 45 days after gestation. The reproductive tissues were sampled from testis, ovary, endometrium, hypothalamus, anterior pituitary, uterus, and placenta. A gene-oriented approach was developed to annotate these porcine EST sequences to census the genes expressed from these sources. Of the 33 308 mRNA sequences from the human genes used as references (data accessed on 1 November 2002), 9410 had the porcine EST homologs expressed in embryos and 11 795 had the EST homologs expressed in reproductive tissues. The entire genome contributes at least 28.3% of its genes to embryo development and 35.4% of its genes to reproduction. Using the EST entry numbers as indicators of gene expression, we determined that the gene expression patterns differ significantly between embryos and reproductive tissues in pigs. The basic active genes were identified for each source, but most of them are not coexpressed abundantly. Few genes were expressed on the Y chromosome (P < 0.01), but they may represent counterparts of the double-dose genes that remain active in an inactivated X chromosome in females but are needed for proper development and growth. The census provides a panel of transcripts in a broad sense that can be used as targets to study the mechanisms involved in embryo development and reproduction in pigs and other mammals, including humans.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Fatal outcomes from liposuction: census survey of cosmetic surgeons.

Troubling reports of adverse outcomes after liposuction prompted a census survey of aesthetic plastic surgeons. All 1200 actively practicing North American board-certified ASAPS members were polled by facsimile, then mail, regarding deaths after liposuction. Patient initials together with case summaries precluded data replication yet assured patient anonymity and preserved surgeon privacy. Incomplete returns or ambiguous findings were authenticated, where feasible, by direct follow-up. Total number of lipoplasties performed by plastic surgeons was interpolated from the ASPRS procedure database for the survey time frame of 1994 to mid-1998. Lacking reliable annual case volume estimates, deaths from lipoplasties performed by non-ABPS surgeons were excluded from the actual mortality rate computation but were included in cause-of-death ranking statistics. Responding aesthetic plastic surgeons (917 of 1200) reported 95 uniquely authenticated fatalities in 496,245 lipoplasties. In this census survey, the mortality rate computed to 1 in 5224, or 19.1 per 100,000. A virtually identical 20.3 per 100,000 mortality rate was obtained in a 1997 random survey commissioned by the parent society. Pulmonary thromboembolism remains as the major killer (23.4+/-2.6 percent); lacking consistent medical examiners' toxicology data, the putative role of high-dose lidocaine cardiotoxicity could not be ascertained. Where so stated, many deaths occurred during the first night after discharge home; prudence suggests vigilant observation for residual "hangover" from sedative/anesthetic drugs after lengthy procedures. Taken together, these two independent surveys peg the late 1990s mortality rate from liposuction at about 20 per 100,000, or 1 in every 5000 procedures. Set beside the 16.4 per 100,000 fatality rates of U.S. motor vehicle accidents, liposuction is not an altogether benign procedure. We do not have comparable mortality data for lipoplasties performed by non-ABPS-certified physicians.

Ambulatory Surgical Procedures↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Functional census of mutation sequence spaces: the example of p53 cancer rescue mutants.

Many biomedical problems relate to mutant functional properties across a sequence space of interest, e.g., flu, cancer, and HIV. Detailed knowledge of mutant properties and function improves medical treatment and prevention. A functional census of p53 cancer rescue mutants would aid the search for cancer treatments from p53 mutant rescue. We devised a general methodology for conducting a functional census of a mutation sequence space by choosing informative mutants early. The methodology was tested in a double-blind predictive test on the functional rescue property of 71 novel putative p53 cancer rescue mutants iteratively predicted in sets of three (24 iterations). The first double-blind 15-point moving accuracy was 47 percent and the last was 86 percent; r = 0.01 before an epiphanic 16th iteration and r = 0.92 afterward. Useful mutants were chosen early (overall r = 0.80). Code and data are freely available (http://www.igb.uci.edu/research/research.html, corresponding authors: R.H.L. for computation and R.K.B. for biology).

Artificial Intelligence↗
PubMed2002

Integrating mark-recapture-recovery and census data to estimate animal abundance and demographic parameters.

In studies of wild animals, one frequently encounters both census and mark-recapture-recovery data. We show how a state-space model for census data in combination with the usual multinomial-based models for ring-recovery data provide estimates of productivity not available from either type of data alone. The approach is illustrated on two British bird species. For the lapwing, we calibrate how its recent decline could be due to a decrease in productivity. For the heron, there is no evidence for a decline in productivity, and the combined analysis increases significantly the strength of logistic regressions of survival on winter severity.

Animals↗
PubMed1995

Smoking in New Zealand: a census investigation.

New Zealand may well be unique in that in the 1976 and the 1981 Censuses of Population and Dwellings, persons over the age of 15 were asked about their cigarette smoking habits. The data are available on the basis of age and ethnicity, enabling an examination of the prevalence of ever-smoking by a cohort born some 80 years before the censuses were taken, at the end of the last century. Thus the effect of ever-smoking on mortality can be calculated. Ever regularly smoking reduced the life expectation of males by 11.7 years and females by 15.6 years. The corresponding reductions for Maori were 19.3 years and 23.8 years. The effect of smoking on health has been of epidemic proportions, notably for the Maori.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Status of the microbial census.

Over the past 20 years, more than 78,000 16S rRNA gene sequences have been deposited in GenBank and the Ribosomal Database Project, making the 16S rRNA gene the most widely studied gene for reconstructing bacterial phylogeny. While there is a general appreciation that these sequences are largely unique and derived from diverse species of bacteria, there has not been a quantitative attempt to describe the extent of sequencing efforts to date. We constructed rarefaction curves for each bacterial phylum and for the entire bacterial domain to assess the current state of sampling and the relative taxonomic richness of each phylum. This analysis quantifies the general sense among microbiologists that we are a long way from a complete census of the bacteria on Earth. Moreover, the analysis indicates that current sampling strategies might not be the most effective ones to describe novel diversity because there remain numerous phyla that are globally distributed yet poorly sampled. Based on the current level of sampling, it is not possible to estimate the total number of bacterial species on Earth, but the minimum species richness is 35,498. Considering previous global species richness estimates of 10(7) to 10(9), we are certain that this estimate will increase with additional sequencing efforts. The data support previous calls for extensive surveys of multiple chemically disparate environments and of specific phylogenetic groups to advance the census most rapidly.

Bacteria↗