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An in silico approach for screening flavonoids as P-glycoprotein inhibitors based on a Bayesian-regularized neural network.

P-glycoprotein (P-gp), an ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporter, functions as a biological barrier by extruding cytotoxic agents out of cells, resulting in an obstacle in chemotherapeutic treatment of cancer. In order to aid in the development of potential P-gp inhibitors, we constructed a quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model of flavonoids as P-gp inhibitors based on Bayesian-regularized neural network (BRNN). A dataset of 57 flavonoids collected from a literature binding to the C-terminal nucleotide-binding domain of mouse P-gp was compiled. The predictive ability of the model was assessed using a test set that was independent of the training set, which showed a standard error of prediction of 0.146+/-0.006 (data scaled from 0 to 1). Meanwhile, two other mathematical tools, back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and partial least squares (PLS) were also attempted to build QSAR models. The BRNN provided slightly better results for the test set compared to BPNN, but the difference was not significant according to F-statistic at p=0.05. The PLS failed to build a reliable model in the present study. Our study indicates that the BRNN-based in silico model has good potential in facilitating the prediction of P-gp flavonoid inhibitors and might be applied in further drug design.

ATP Binding Cassette Transporter, Subfamily B, Mem↗

Broad-based quantitative structure-activity relationship modeling of potency and selectivity of farnesyltransferase inhibitors using a Bayesian regularized neural network.

Inhibitors of the enzyme farnesyltransferase show potential as novel anticancer agents. There are many known inhibitors, but efforts to build predictive SAR models have been hampered by the structural diversity and flexibility of inhibitors. We have undertaken for the first time a QSAR study of the potency and selectivity of a large, diverse data set of farnesyltransferase inhibitors. We used novel molecular descriptors based on binned atomic properties and invariants of molecular matrices and a robust, nonlinear QSAR mapping paradigm, the Bayesian regularized neural network. We have built robust QSAR models of farnesyltransferase inhibition, geranylgeranyltransferase inhibition, and in vivo data. We have derived a novel selectivity index that allows us to model potency and selectivity simultaneously and have built robust QSAR models using this index that have the potential to discover new potent and selective inhibitors.

Alkyl and Aryl Transferases↗

Linear and nonlinear modeling of antifungal activity of some heterocyclic ring derivatives using multiple linear regression and Bayesian-regularized neural networks.

Antifungal activity was modeled for a set of 96 heterocyclic ring derivatives (2,5,6-trisubstituted benzoxazoles, 2,5-disubstituted benzimidazoles, 2-substituted benzothiazoles and 2-substituted oxazolo(4,5-b)pyridines) using multiple linear regression (MLR) and Bayesian-regularized artificial neural network (BRANN) techniques. Inhibitory activity against Candida albicans (log(1/C)) was correlated with 3D descriptors encoding the chemical structures of the heterocyclic compounds. Training and test sets were chosen by means of k-Means Clustering. The most appropriate variables for linear and nonlinear modeling were selected using a genetic algorithm (GA) approach. In addition to the MLR equation (MLR-GA), two nonlinear models were built, model BRANN employing the linear variable subset and an optimum model BRANN-GA obtained by a hybrid method that combined BRANN and GA approaches (BRANN-GA). The linear model fit the training set (n = 80) with r2 = 0.746, while BRANN and BRANN-GA gave higher values of r2 = 0.889 and r2 = 0.937, respectively. Beyond the improvement of training set fitting, the BRANN-GA model was superior to the others by being able to describe 87% of test set (n = 16) variance in comparison with 78 and 81% the MLR-GA and BRANN models, respectively. Our quantitative structure-activity relationship study suggests that the distributions of atomic mass, volume and polarizability have relevant relationships with the antifungal potency of the compounds studied. Furthermore, the ability of the six variables selected nonlinearly to differentiate the data was demonstrated when the total data set was well distributed in a Kohonen self-organizing neural network (KNN).

Antifungal Agents↗

Bayesian applications of belief networks and multilayer perceptrons for ovarian tumor classification with rejection.

Incorporating prior knowledge into black-box classifiers is still much of an open problem. We propose a hybrid Bayesian methodology that consists in encoding prior knowledge in the form of a (Bayesian) belief network and then using this knowledge to estimate an informative prior for a black-box model (e.g. a multilayer perceptron). Two technical approaches are proposed for the transformation of the belief network into an informative prior. The first one consists in generating samples according to the most probable parameterization of the Bayesian belief network and using them as virtual data together with the real data in the Bayesian learning of a multilayer perceptron. The second approach consists in transforming probability distributions over belief network parameters into distributions over multilayer perceptron parameters. The essential attribute of the hybrid methodology is that it combines prior knowledge and statistical data efficiently when prior knowledge is available and the sample is of small or medium size. Additionally, we describe how the Bayesian approach can provide uncertainty information about the predictions (e.g. for classification with rejection). We demonstrate these techniques on the medical task of predicting the malignancy of ovarian masses and summarize the practical advantages of the Bayesian approach. We compare the learning curves for the hybrid methodology with those of several belief networks and multilayer perceptrons. Furthermore, we report the performance of Bayesian belief networks when they are allowed to exclude hard cases based on various measures of prediction uncertainty.

Bayes Theorem↗

Reasoning requirements for diagnosis of heart disease.

Over the past dozen years, the Heart Disease Program (HDP) has been developed to assist physicians in reasoning about cardiovascular disorders. Driven by several evaluations, the inference mechanism has progressed from a logic based model, to a Bayesian Probability Network (BPN) and finally a pseudo-Bayesian network with temporal and severity reasoning. Though aspects of cardiovascular reasoning are handled well by BPNs, temporal reasoning, homeostatic feedback mechanisms and effects of disease severities require additional inference strategies. This article discusses how these reasoning problems are handled, and deals with closely linked issues in building the user interface to collect detailed cardiovascular data and provide clear explanations of diagnoses.

Artificial Intelligence↗

Ensembles of Bayesian-regularized genetic neural networks for modeling of acetylcholinesterase inhibition by huprines.

Acetylcholinesterase inhibition was modeled for a set of huprines using ensembles of Bayesian-regularized Genetic Neural Networks. In the Bayesian-regularized Genetic Neural Network approach the Bayesian regularization avoids overfitted regressions and the genetic algorithm allows exploring a wide pool of three-dimensional descriptors. The predictive capacity of our selected model was evaluated by averaging multiple validation sets generated as members of neural network ensembles. When 60 members are assembled, the neural network ensemble provides a reliable measure of training and test set R(2)-values of 0.945 and 0.850 respectively. In other respects, the ability of the nonlinear selected genetic algorithm space for differentiate the data were evidenced when total data set was well distributed in a Kohonen self-organizing map. The analysis of the self-organizing map zones allows establishing the main structural features differentiated by our vectorial space.

Acetylcholinesterase↗

Bayesian multioutput feedforward neural networks comparison: a conjugate prior approach.

A Bayesian method for the comparison and selection of multioutput feedforward neural network topology, based on the predictive capability, is proposed. As a measure of the prediction fitness potential, an expected utility criterion is considered which is consistently estimated by a sample-reuse computation. As opposed to classic point-prediction-based cross-validation methods, this expected utility is defined from the logarithmic score of the neural model predictive probability density. It is shown how the advocated choice of a conjugate probability distribution as prior for the parameters of a competing network, allows a consistent approximation of the network posterior predictive density. A comparison of the performances of the proposed method with the performances of usual selection procedures based on classic cross-validation and information-theoretic criteria, is performed first on a simulated case study, and then on a well known food analysis dataset.

Journal Article↗

Ideal observer approximation using Bayesian classification neural networks.

It is well understood that the optimal classification decision variable is the likelihood ratio or any monotonic transformation of the likelihood ratio. An automated classifier which maps from an input space to one of the likelihood ratio family of decision variables is an optimal classifier or "ideal observer." Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are frequently used as classifiers for many problems. In the limit of large training sample sizes, an ANN approximates a mapping function which is a monotonic transformation of the likelihood ratio, i.e., it estimates an ideal observer decision variable. A principal disadvantage of conventional ANNs is the potential over-parameterization of the mapping function which results in a poor approximation of an optimal mapping function for smaller training samples. Recently, Bayesian methods have been applied to ANNs in order to regularize training to improve the robustness of the classifier. The goal of training a Bayesian ANN with finite sample sizes is, as with unlimited data, to approximate the ideal observer. We have evaluated the accuracy of Bayesian ANN models of ideal observer decision variables as a function of the number of hidden units used, the signal-to-noise ratio of the data and the number of features or dimensionality of the data. We show that when enough training data are present, excess hidden units do not substantially degrade the accuracy of Bayesian ANNs. However, the minimum number of hidden units required to best model the optimal mapping function varies with the complexity of the data.

Bayes Theorem↗

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics: a remote sensing application.

Neural network (NN) techniques have proved successful for many regression problems, in particular for remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided. In this article, a Bayesian technique to evaluate uncertainties of the NN parameters (i.e., synaptic weights) is first presented. In contrast to more traditional approaches based on point estimation of the NN weights, we assess uncertainties on such estimates to monitor the robustness of the NN model. These theoretical developments are illustrated by applying them to the problem of retrieving surface skin temperature, microwave surface emissivities, and integrated water vapor content from a combined analysis of satellite microwave and infrared observations over land. The weight uncertainty estimates are then used to compute analytically the uncertainties in the network outputs (i.e., error bars and correlation structure of these errors). Such quantities are very important for evaluating any application of an NN model. The uncertainties on the NN Jacobians are then considered in the third part of this article. Used for regression fitting, NN models can be used effectively to represent highly nonlinear, multivariate functions. In this situation, most emphasis is put on estimating the output errors, but almost no attention has been given to errors associated with the internal structure of the regression model. The complex structure of dependency inside the NN is the essence of the model, and assessing its quality, coherency, and physical character makes all the difference between a blackbox model with small output errors and a reliable, robust, and physically coherent model. Such dependency structures are described to the first order by the NN Jacobians: they indicate the sensitivity of one output with respect to the inputs of the model for given input data. We use a Monte Carlo integration procedure to estimate the robustness of the NN Jacobians. A regularization strategy based on principal component analysis is proposed to suppress the multicollinearities in order to make these Jacobians robust and physically meaningful.

Algorithms↗

NExON-Bayes: a Bayesian approach to network estimation informed by ordinal covariates.

MOTIVATION: In heterogeneous disease settings, accounting for intrinsic sample variability is crucial for obtaining reliable and interpretable omic network estimates. However, most graphical model analyses of biomedical data assume homogeneous conditional dependence structures, potentially leading to misleading conclusions. To address this, we propose a joint Gaussian graphical model that leverages sample-level ordinal covariates (e.g. disease stage) to account for heterogeneity and improve the estimation of partial correlation structures. RESULTS: Our modelling framework, called NExON-Bayes, extends the graphical spike-and-slab framework to account for ordinal covariates, jointly estimating their relevance to the graph structure and leveraging them to improve the accuracy of network estimation. To scale to high-dimensional omic settings, we develop an efficient variational inference algorithm tailored to our model. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our method outperforms the vanilla graphical spike-and-slab (with no covariate information), as well as other state-of-the-art network approaches which exploit covariate information. Applying our method to reverse phase protein array data from patients diagnosed with stage I, II or III breast carcinoma, we estimate the behaviour of proteomic networks as cancer progresses. Our model provides insights not only through inspection of the estimated proteomic networks, but also of the estimated ordinal covariate dependencies of key groups of proteins within those networks, offering a comprehensive understanding of how biological pathways shift across disease stages. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: A user-friendly R package for NExON-Bayes with tutorials is available on Github at github.com/jf687/NExON, and archived at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20312938. The source of the dataset used is cited in the relevant section.

Bayes Theorem↗

A bayesian recurrent neural network for unsupervised pattern recognition in large incomplete data sets.

A recurrent neural network, modified to handle highly incomplete training data is described. Unsupervised pattern recognition is demonstrated in the WHO database of adverse drug reactions. Comparison is made to a well established method, AutoClass, and the performances of both methods is investigated on simulated data. The neural network method performs comparably to AutoClass in simulated data, and better than AutoClass in real world data. With its better scaling properties, the neural network is a promising tool for unsupervised pattern recognition in huge databases of incomplete observations.

Algorithms↗

Bayesian approach for neural networks--review and case studies.

We give a short review on the Bayesian approach for neural network learning and demonstrate the advantages of the approach in three real applications. We discuss the Bayesian approach with emphasis on the role of prior knowledge in Bayesian models and in classical error minimization approaches. The generalization capability of a statistical model, classical or Bayesian, is ultimately based on the prior assumptions. The Bayesian approach permits propagation of uncertainty in quantities which are unknown to other assumptions in the model, which may be more generally valid or easier to guess in the problem. The case problem studied in this paper include a regression, a classification, and an inverse problem. In the most thoroughly analyzed regression problem, the best models were those with less restrictive priors. This emphasizes the major advantage of the Bayesian approach, that we are not forced to guess attributes that are unknown, such as the number of degrees of freedom in the model, non-linearity of the model with respect to each input variable, or the exact form for the distribution of the model residuals.

Algorithms↗

Bayesian sparse hidden components analysis for transcription regulation networks.

MOTIVATION: In systems like Escherichia Coli, the abundance of sequence information, gene expression array studies and small scale experiments allows one to reconstruct the regulatory network and to quantify the effects of transcription factors on gene expression. However, this goal can only be achieved if all information sources are used in concert. RESULTS: Our method integrates literature information, DNA sequences and expression arrays. A set of relevant transcription factors is defined on the basis of literature. Sequence data are used to identify potential target genes and the results are used to define a prior distribution on the topology of the regulatory network. A Bayesian hidden component model for the expression array data allows us to identify which of the potential binding sites are actually used by the regulatory proteins in the studied cell conditions, the strength of their control, and their activation profile in a series of experiments. We apply our methodology to 35 expression studies in E.Coli with convincing results. AVAILABILITY: www.genetics.ucla.edu/labs/sabatti/software.html SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The supplementary material are available at Bioinformatics online.

Algorithms↗

[Bayesian regularized BP neural network model for quantitative relationship between the electrochemical reduction potential and molecular structures of chlorinated aromatic compounds].

Bayesian regularized BP neural network (BRBPNN) technique was applied in QSPR model in environmental field. The BRBPNN model for quantitative relationship between the electrochemical reduction potential (ERP) and chemical structures of 87 chlorinated aromatic compounds was established. The structure descriptor pool is consisted of Cl number (Cl), molecular weight (MW) and 6 quantum chemistry parameters which are calculated by MOPAC2000 built in ChemOffice2004, including energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital (E(HOMO)), energy of the lowest occupied molecular orbital (E(LUMO)), heat of formation(HF), dipole(DIP), electronic energy(EE), core-core repulsion(CCR). The achieved optimal network structure was 6-20-1, which possessed stronger fitting and prediction capacity than that of the stepwise linear regression and with the correlation coefficients square and the mean square error for the training set and the test set as 0.999 and 0.000105, 0.965 and 0.00159 respectively. The sum of square weights between each input neuron and the hidden layer of BRBPNN(6-20-1) indicate the effect of descriptor on the electric potential declining in the order of ELUMO > EHOMO > HF> CCR > EE > DIP. The scatter diagrams show that the EE descriptors had positive effect on ERP, and ELUMO, HF, DIP had negative effects, and EHOMO and CCR showed ambiguous effects. Results show that Bayesian regularized BP neural network is of automated regularization parameter selection capability and thus may ensure the excellent generation ability and robustness. This study threw more light on the applicability of electrochemical treatment for the chlorinated aromatic compounds and the analysis on electrochemical reduction mechanism.

Bayes Theorem↗

Robust full Bayesian learning for radial basis networks.

We propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for radial basis networks. This model treats the model dimension (number of neurons), model parameters, regularization parameters, and noise parameters as unknown random variables. We develop a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to perform the Bayesian computation. We find that the results obtained using this method are not only better than the ones reported previously, but also appear to be robust with respect to the prior specification. In addition, we propose a novel and computationally efficient reversible-jump MCMC simulated annealing algorithm to optimize neural networks. This algorithm enables us to maximize the joint posterior distribution of the network parameters and the number of basis function. It performs a global search in the joint space of the parameters and number of parameters, thereby surmounting the problem of local minima to a large extent. We show that by calibrating the full hierarchical Bayesian prior, we can obtain the classical Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and minimum description length model selection criteria within a penalized likelihood framework. Finally, we present a geometric convergence theorem for the algorithm with homogeneous transition kernel and a convergence theorem for the reversible-jump MCMC simulated annealing method.

Journal Article↗

Prediction of oculocardiac reflex in strabismus surgery using neural networks.

Successfully predicting an oculocardiac reflex (OCR) is difficult to achieve despite various proposed maneuvers. The aim of this study was to test the models built up by neural networks to predict the occurrence of OCR during strabismus surgery in children. Premedication was not given. Atropine 0.01 mg/kg was medicated just before induction. Induction was performed with fentanyl or ketorolac, followed by propofol. Atracurium or vecuronium was given for intubation. Anesthesia was maintained with O2-N2O with continuous propofol infusion. Chi-square test was performed for induction agents, gender, weight, muscle blockade, repaired muscle, number of repaired muscles, duration of operation to detect any association between the occurrence of OCR and to develop the model of neural networks. The multi-layer perceptron, radial basis function and Bayesian backpropagation network were tested. The occurrence of OCR was significantly associated with gender and repaired muscle (p < 0.05). Gender, repaired muscle and age were considered as input for the multi-layer perceptron, radial basis function and Bayesian backpropagation network. Three neural networks had predicted the same correction rate in the occurrence of OCR as being 87.5% overall among 16 patients' records tested. These models are conceptually different in predicting compared to conventional maneuvers, and have the advantage of testing individually and foretelling the propensity. By comparison neural networks use grouped experiential data and predict OCR by the learning rule. Neural networks require a relatively abundant number of experienced and homogenous patients' records to establish an accurate model. The multi-layer perceptron, radial basis function and Bayesian backpropagation modeling network may be an alternative way, and preferable to vagal tone maneuvers if the associated relationships to the occurrence of OCR are more clearly defined.

Adolescent↗

An extended likelihood ratio framework for interpreting evidence.

This paper reviews some current methods, the likelihood ratio-based approach and the full Bayesian approach for the interpretation of evidence and discusses previously identified shortcomings in them. It suggests an approach based on a compromise--based on an extended likelihood ratio--that may combine the merits of logic without overstepping acceptable bounds for the forensic scientist in the presentation of evidence. The approach is exposed formally and takes advantage of inferential networks called Bayesian networks.

Criminology↗

Issues in Bayesian Analysis of Neural Network Models

Stemming from work by Buntine and Weigend (1991) and MacKay (1992), there is a growing interest in Bayesian analysis of neural network models. Although conceptually simple, this problem is computationally involved. We suggest a very efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for inference and prediction with fixed&hyphenarchitecture feedforward neural networks. The scheme is then extended to the variable architecture case, providing a data&hyphendriven procedure to identify sensible architectures.

Journal Article↗