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PubMed1984

Age-specific variation in the secular trend for stature: a comparison of samples from industrialized and nonindustrialized regions.

Age-specific secular trend patterns for children in industrialized world regions have a regular pattern, beginning low at age 6 and increasing to a maximum at age 10 to 14, then declining. While magnitude differs, the patterns are ordinarily parallel, especially in the female samples. However, age-specific secular trend values for children from developing regions, or from areas of industrialized countries not benefitting substantially from development, are irregular in pattern and magnitude. Consequently, it is difficult to predict age at maximal secular change. We suggest that fluctuating environmental circumstances in these developing countries influence growth and, hence, the pattern of secular trend. As more stable environmental conditions relating to growth are present in the industrialized countries, this leads to more stable patterns of growth and age-specific patterns of secular change.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1999

The paucity of effects in community trials: is secular trend the culprit?

BACKGROUND: The most recent major U.S. trials that evaluated community-level programs to influence risk factors and health behaviors identified secular trends in the risk factors and health behaviors among the factors that might have limited community-level effects. The research reported in this paper uses data from one of the trials to examine the secular trend explanation directly. METHODS: Data from the 22-community Community Intervention Trial for Smoking Cessation (COMMIT) were analyzed to test a hypothesis based on secular trend reasoning: program effects for smoking prevalence were larger for treatment communities matched to control communities with small declines in smoking than in treatment communities matched to control communities with larger declines in smoking. RESULTS: Consistent with the secular trend explanation, program effects were larger when control communities had relatively small declines in smoking prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that secular trends masked community-level program effects in COMMIT.

Canada↗
PubMed1993

Natural history of idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy: effect of referral bias and secular trend.

OBJECTIVES: The current study was designed to determine the effect of secular trend and referral bias on the natural history of idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. BACKGROUND: In a previous study of 104 patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy conducted in a referral population at the Mayo Clinic between 1960 and 1973, the 1- and 5-year mortality rates were 31% and 64%, respectively. A recent study of 40 patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy conducted in a population-based cohort at the Mayo Clinic between 1975 and 1984 reported 1- and 5-year mortality rates of 5% and 20%, respectively. We hypothesized that improvements in diagnosis and therapy have occurred since the original referral cohort was described and that these improvements have altered the apparent natural history of the disease. We refer to this effect as secular trend. Alternatively, the presence of more advanced disease in the referral population (referral bias) may also contribute to the differences in survival. METHODS: Two sequential referral populations with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy seen at the Mayo Clinic between 1976 and 81 (n = 85) and 1982 and 1987 (n = 137) were identified. Outcome was compared between these cohorts and the 1960-1973 referral cohort to examine the effect of secular trend. Outcomes were compared with that of the population-based cohort to examine the effect of referral bias. RESULTS: Survival in the 1976-1981 referral cohort did not differ from that in the 1960-1973 referral cohort, suggesting little impact of secular trend during these time periods. Survival in the more recent 1982-1987 referral cohort was significantly better than that in the earlier referral cohorts, suggesting that improvements in diagnosis and treatment in the 1980s altered the natural history of idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. Survival in the 1982-1987 referral cohort was still worse than that of the population-based cohort, suggesting an effect of referral bias on studies of the natural history of idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. CONCLUSIONS: The current study demonstrates that secular trend and referral bias affect the apparent natural history of idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. Survival in referral patients with this disease is significantly better than previously described.

Bias↗
PubMed2006

Insight into the causes of the recent secular trend in pediatric obesity: Common sense does not always prevail for complex, multi-factorial phenotypes.

Although the secular increase in pediatric obesity is well-documented, there has been no serious attempt to systematically address the causes of this secular trend. The aim of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the possible causes of the recent secular increase in pediatric obesity by reviewing and synthesizing the available literature pertaining to the topic. The paper addresses caveats and important considerations regarding the body mass index, physical activity, and diet and also considers alternative explanations (stress, sleep, maternal health, epigenetic mechanisms) for the secular trend. It is likely that the increased BMI is due to both an increased fat-free mass and fat mass (including waist circumference). Although total caloric intake has remained unchanged, there was a clear trend in increased simple sugar consumption. It is conceivable that total energy expenditure has decreased because of a decline in spontaneous but not voluntary physical activity. Several indicators of psycho-social stress (antidepressant medication prescriptions and suicide attempts, anxiety) have increased along with a decreased sleep duration. Finally, there is intriguing evidence that suggests that the secular trend is related to a common origin in fetal life that is exacerbated by postnatal events/stressors. The insight gained from examining the possible causes of the trend provides a better understanding of the basic etiology of pediatric obesity and should be incorporated into prevention and intervention models.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Osteoporosis health-related behaviors in secular and orthodox Israeli Jewish women.

OBJECTIVE: To compare patterns of osteoporosis health-related behaviors in peri and postmenopausal ultra-orthodox and secular Jewish women. METHODS: Interviews were conducted with 277 Israeli-Jewish women aged 45+. Health behaviors examined included: physical activity, smoking behavior, alcohol consumption, hormone replacement usage, screening behavior, calcium intake, pharmacological prevention, and help-seeking patterns. Correlates included demographic variables, health characteristics, knowledge, susceptibility beliefs, and familiarity with the disease. RESULTS: Low proportions of women in both groups participated in physical activities, but differed in type. Calcium intake was deficient in both groups. Education was the only correlate of calcium intake among secular women, and previous experience with the disease was the main determinant among orthodox women. Compared with the secular group, a considerably lower proportion of orthodox women reported using HRT or having performed a bone density examination. Orthodox participants' level of knowledge about osteoporosis was significantly lower as well. Education was an important correlate of knowledge in both groups, as was having performed a bone density examination. Higher age and being menopausal were important correlates of knowledge only for secular women. Having a family member suffering from the disease was associated with higher levels of knowledge among orthodox women. Marked differences were found in the participants' sources of information across groups. CONCLUSIONS: Findings emphasize the need to expand education in all areas of osteoporosis health-related behaviors among ultra-orthodox women, and in calcium intake and exercise for secular women as well. The transmission of the information should be adapted to the practices of each group.

Female↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Secular trends in height, weight and body mass index of 6-year-old children in Bremerhaven.

Secular trends in growth processes of children can be important indicators of changes in public health. Common to studies on secular trends in children is that evaluation is based on comparison of data collected at two (or more) distinct points on a time scale. The quantitative characteristic of the secular trend is estimated by linear interpolation between the two end points of the underlying time interval, which in studies of children are usually at least 10 years apart. The purpose of the present paper is to analyse secular trends in height, weight and body mass index (BMI) of 6-year-old children from Bremerhaven over the period 1968-1987 (the year refers to the birth cohort). The results are based on data drawn from health records of the City Health Centre, where all 6-year-old children are routinely measured in a school entrance examination. Thus the data represent complete birth cohorts of children entering school in Bremerhaven and not selected samples. The data reported here refer only to children of German origin. The sample sizes vary from n = 313 (girls born in 1982) to n = 737 (boys born in 1968), and total sample size is n = 7601. Regression of the arithmetic means of height on year of birth showed that the trend in stature for children born between 1968 and 1987 was 0.67 cm/decade for boys and 0.49 cm/decade in girls. Both trends are statistically significant (p < 0.05). Although there was an increasing tendency for weight as well, which was more marked for the 95th percentile than for the median, neither of the trends in both sexes was statistically significant. While the BMI in both sexes showed no trend at all for the median and the 5th percentile, there was a significant linear increase of the 95th percentile. Furthermore, the results for height show that an evaluation of secular trends under qualitative and quantitative perspective critically depends on the selection of points on the time scale.

Body Constitution↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Secular trend in birthweight among the Purari delta population, Papua New Guinea.

The aim of this analysis was to examine the extent and possible seasonal nature of the secular trend in mean birthweight in the Purari delta, Papua New Guinea. This is a country undergoing rapid modernization, and with this has come a secular trend toward increased adult body size in some parts of the country but not others. Birthweight data, collected by month of delivery at Kapuna Hospital in the Purari delta between the years 1969 and 1996, was analysed by year of birth and by season, using one-way analysis of variance and post hoc Scheffé tests with the statistical software SPSS-PC+. A total of 927 birthweights for the years 1969, 1972, 1977, 1994 and 1996 were included in the analysis. Twin births were excluded from analysis, as were births below 1.5 kg. There is clear evidence of a secular trend in increasing mean birthweight between the period 1969 and 1996, with the largest significant difference being between 1977 and 1994, from 2.70 to 2.92 kg. There were no significant differences in mean birthweight between the sexes. The rate of birthweight increase between 1977 and 1994 was 130 g per decade, lower than the gain of 200 g per decade in the period 1994-1996. The decline in birthweight of 90 g per decade during the period 1969-1977 is not statistically significant. The proportion of infants born with low birth weight (< 2.5 kg) shows an increase between 1969 and 1972, and a decline thereafter. While seasonal differences in birthweight during any of the years examined is non-significant, significantly greater mean birthweight across the period 1969-1996 was found for births during the wet season (April to July), and the drier season (August to November), respectively. The secular increase in mean birthweight is likely to be a consequence of the improvements in maternal diet and increased maternal body size that have come with economic modernization. The secular trend of seasonality in mean birthweight among the Purari delta population may be a function of seasonally varied displacement of traditional diet by non-local bought foods, as well as reduced seasonality of maternal workload associated with the processing of the traditional staple food.

Agriculture↗
PubMed1988

Secular trends in body mass in the United States, 1960-1980.

Data from four National Health Examination Surveys conducted of the US population from 1960 to 1980 were analyzed to determine secular trends in obesity for white and for black adolescents and young adults of both sexes. Body mass index was categorized into four levels using cut points determined by the 50th, 75th, and 85th percentiles at the first survey in 1960-1962. The weighted proportions of persons in these body mass categories were determined, and statistical models were developed to describe secular trend and race effects. No consistent secular trends were found for white or black youths aged 12-17 years. No significant secular trends in obesity were found for white or black young males aged 18-34 years. Both for white and for black adult females, there were significant secular increases in the proportion of adult females in each of the successively heavier categories of body mass index. These increases were identical for white and for black adult females on the log-odds scale, but black adult females were already significantly heavier at the first survey. This race effect persisted throughout the entire time interval.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

The secular trends in height and weight of Turkish school children during 1993-2003.

BACKGROUND: Secular changes in growth and development can be considered as the changing pattern of somatic development of children in a particular population from one generation to another. Developing countries, which have many changes in socio-economical conditions, reveal various trends in growth. The aims of this study were to analyse growth trends in weight and height of Turkish children from a school in Ankara over the period 1993-2003 with 10-year time interval, and to determine the relation between secular trends. METHODS: Anthropometric measurements of 1214 children and adolescents (611 boys and 603 girls) aged between 7 and 15 years from Ankara, Turkey, obtained cross sectionally in 2003 were compared with measurements of 867 school children (451 boys and 416 girls) from a previous study which had been obtained in the same primary school in 1993. For 7-15 years of age the increments of weight and height were determined, and analysed statistically. RESULTS: In 2003 survey boys and girls were taller and heavier than their peers from previous study in all age groups. For all cohorts in boys from 7 to 15 years, weight increments between 2.7 and 6.3 kg/decade and height increments between 1.7 and 5.5 cm/decade were demonstrated. For girls in the same cohorts, weight increments between 2.8 and 6.5 kg/decade and height increments between 1.8 and 5.7 cm/decade were indicated. Both weight and height increments suggest an upward displacement of growth curves in this interval of 10 years. CONCLUSION: A significant secular increase in weight and height measurements were found in 7-15-year-old boys and girls in Ankara. These secular increases can be explained with improvements in social and health indicators that reflect the overall health status of the population. The secular increases in growth of Turkish school children may reveal updates of growth standards.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1997

Secular changes in growth and maturation: an update.

Secular changes in growth and maturation in recent decades have been reviewed for various populations. The secular increase in attained height during the growth period is continuing in most countries, but has slowed down. The increase in adult stature over the past decades has varied between 0.3 and 3.0 cm/decade. The secular trend in the tempo of growth (earlier menarche and peak height velocity, and shortening of the growth cycle) has come to a halt in some populations, but is continuing or has been reversed in others. The secular trend in attained height and in the tempo of growth is usually more pronounced in children from low socioeconomic backgrounds, in those with poorly educated parents or in those from rural areas. It is concluded that updates of growth standards are required in all populations. More marked secular changes appear to occur in the lower height centiles, which may have direct implications on the future definition of 'short stature' in a population.

Body Height↗
PubMed2002

Secular trends in pubertal development.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the secular trend in pubertal development in relation to the secular trend in height. METHODS: Literature review of cross-sectional, longitudinal and twin studies. RESULTS: Globally, there is a secular trend in adolescent growth for an increased mean final height at adulthood. To a lesser extent, there is also a secular trend towards earlier puberty. However, it seems that the two trends are not strongly connected. The increase in average height over the generations can, to a large extent, be explained by an earlier onset of the growth hormone-dependent phase of growth in early life. The age when this growth 'spurt' occurs in childhood strongly correlates with final height, but is not related to the age at peak height velocity during puberty. There is a large variation in the timing of the onset of puberty; it is largely influenced genetically, as implied by studies in twins. The single environmental factor that stands out as most significant - possibly explaining as much as 25% of the variation in the timing of puberty - is simply nutritional status in childhood; overnutrition and obesity seem to trigger pubertal onset. However, recent studies have identified that both shortness and thinness at birth are also associated with earlier pubertal maturation - a reverse of their impact during childhood years. CONCLUSIONS: More longitudinal studies are needed to understand the short- and long-term consequences of secular changes in both final height and pubertal development before we know how important the trends are.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Secular growth changes in the Hellenic population in the twentieth century.

Statural growth is dependent on hereditary and environmental factors, i.e disease, nutrition. The improvement of socioeconomic conditions that took place during the 20th century resulted in a secular trend towards greater height and earlier sexual maturation. Greek society has changed dramatically from a mainly agricultural society at the beginning of the 20th century to a mainly urban one in the second half of the century, and during this period Greece became a developed country. The various studies examining the height of children living in Athens during this period show a gradual increase in the height of children, the difference of the mean height between 2001 and 1928 being 11.8 cm and 7.3 cm for 17 year old boys and girls, respectively. The difference in mean height was present at all ages. The difference in final height was mainly due to prepubertal growth. Girls at the age of 10 and boys at 11 years were about 8 cm taller in 2001 than in 1928. A growth study carried out on conscripts in 1990 found no significant difference in the height of males coming from urban or rural areas of the country, whereas such a difference was detected in 1968, rural men being significantly shorter than urban ones in 1968. There are only a few studies on the sexual maturation of Greek children. The available data suggest a secular trend towards earlier puberty in females; however, this can not be substantiated for males. Menarcheal age in Greek girls showed a positive secular change that is in agreement with the observed trend for earlier pubertal maturation in girls. In conclusion, Greek children in the 20th century experienced a positive secular trend in stature which also includes final height. A secular trend for earlier sexual maturation can be shown only for girls.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2001

Stature, maturation variation and secular trends in forensic anthropology.

A twentieth-century trend for increased stature has received considerable attention in the forensic literature with regard to its effects on stature estimation, but a secular trend for earlier maturation has received little attention. Current evidence indicates that within populations with similar climatic adaptation, truncation or extension of the same trajectory of ontogenetic allometry accounts for the secular trend and the within-cohort stature variation, as well as the scaling of limb proportion to stature and intralimb proportions. Since secular increase is small compared to interindividual variation, the Trotter and Gleser formulae are still appropriate as long as the 95% confidence intervals are applied. A secular trend for increasing childhood and adolescent obesity is associated with a trend for accelerated skeletal maturation, but does not predict a consistent direction or a quantitative correction for traditional standards. Secular trends for increased stature and earlier maturation are overshadowed by increasing nonsecular intrapopulational variation.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Sex and gender differences in secular trend of body size and frame indices of Lithuanians.

In Lithuania, as in many other European countries, positive secular trend of body size became especially expressed at the middle of XX. century. The analysis showed the evident secular trend in height of adult Lithuanians since the end of XIX. century till 2001 from 163.5 till 181.3 cm in males and from 153.3 cm till 167.5 cm in females. Concerning growth and development of children, during the 1925-2001 period especially obvious acceleration of height was determined at the middle of adolescence due to much earlier sexual maturation at the end of XX. century. Secular trend of body height was more expressed in males of all ages, nevertheless this process stabilized in both sexes during the last decades. While comparing secular changes in BMI of adolescent Lithuanian girls and boys between the 1925-2001 period, the evident sexual differences in secular changes were determined from the middle of pubescence: the course of changes in BMI during the XX. century was nearly the same in both sexes, but at the end of XX. century older adolescent girls became obviously thinner compared with the changes of BMI in boys of the same age. A very similar trend in BMI of adult Lithuanian women since 1980 till 2002 was also detected. This phenomenon could be more related with the changes in life stile, modern-day canons for unrealistically thin female's body and strong social pressure on women today.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1990

Age effects and secular trend in a cross-sectional sample: application to four head dimensions in Belgian adults.

If longitudinal studies represent the more direct way to analyze modifications resulting from aging, often for obvious reasons cross-sectional samples can also be used for this purpose. But in this case differences between age groups cannot be identified with the effects of age only; they can also be attributed to the effects of a secular trend. It is the aim of this study to show, using four cephalic dimensions and a cross-sectional sample, the need to take into account the effect of a secular trend when the age effect is studied. In 1985 a study of head and facial measurements of 182 Belgian men, aged 25-54 years, was carried out. A simple comparison between different age groups (F tests) revealed significant differences for head breadth and facial breadths. However, no difference for head length was observed. The amplitude of the secular trend in the Belgian population is already known; thus an easy calculation is proposed to define the effects of the age factor. For head breadth the whole difference seems to be the result of the important decrease of secular trend, whereas the global increase observed for the bizygomatic and bigonial breadths results in part from the decrease resulting from the secular trend and in part from the increase resulting from the age effect.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

Allometric secular change in the long bones from the 1800s to the present.

Allometric secular changes in the six long limb bones for White and Black males from the mid 1800s to the present are examined. Long bone lengths are available from the Terry collection and WWII casualties. We conducted two types of analysis to reveal secular changes. First, allometry scaling coefficients were derived by regressing log bone length onto log stature. These showed that the femur, tibia and fibula were positively allometric with stature, while the humerus, radius and ulna were isometric. The lower limb bones were more positively allometric in the WWII sample than in the Terry sample. Second, secular changes in length of femur and tibia and in the tibia/femur ratio were evaluated, using modern forensic cases in addition to the Terry and WWII samples. This analysis shows that secular increase in lower limb bone length is accompanied by relatively longer tibiae. Secular changes in proportion may render stature formulae based on nineteenth century samples, such as the Terry collection, inappropriate for modern forensic cases. The positive allometry of the lower limb bones argues against using simple femur/stature ratio, which assumes constant proportionality, as an alternative to regression equations.

Black People↗
PubMed1996

Equality in health care: Christian engagement with a secular obsession.

A frenetic search for equality lies at the center of much secular and even "Christian" bioethics. In a secular world, if one does not believe in God, if this life is one's whole existence, it would seem that one could not settle for less than equal approbation, especially equality before the risks of suffering and death, which medicine promises to ameliorate. Yet, the concern for equality in health care is puzzling. After a modest level of access to health care there is little difference in average life expectancy. Are concerns for equality in health care even vaguely Christian? The pursuit of Christian perfection has never been correctly equated with state-imposed egalitarianism. Furthermore, an all-encompassing, secular, egalitarian health care system may provide equal access to significantly immoral medical treatments. In contrast to secular thought, the call of Christianity is a call to holiness, not a call to an egalitarianism that superficially resonates with certain elements of Christian thought.

Christianity↗
PubMed2006

How secular is Europe?

A large body of literature has developed, yielding evidence that religion in general and Churches and Church leaders in particular have lost their once dominant position in contemporary Europe. Evidence is often cited in declining levels of church attendance. Whether Europe should also be qualified as secularized in terms of religious beliefs remains unclear. In this paper we investigate the degree to which European people are secular, focusing not only on religious practices, but also on beliefs. We argue that trajectories of religious change occur all over Europe, but not at similar speeds. We formulate hypotheses regarding the differences in the degree to which individuals and societies are secularized. Data from the recent European Values Study surveys are used to empirically test these hypotheses concerning patterns of variation in religious beliefs and practices. The findings provide evidence in favour of secularization theories and in contradiction to rational choice theories. In Europe, religious pluralism produces not higher levels, but lower levels of religiosity. The findings also reveal that religious denomination as well as cultural and socio-economic heritages are important factors in explaining the patchwork pattern in levels of religiosity and religious participation in contemporary Europe.

Adolescent↗