[Hospital centers in England and Scotland. Impressions from a study tour to England and Scotland June 1-12, 1971].
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OBJECTIVES: To determine the degree to which changing patterns of deprivation in Scotland and the rest of Great Britain between 1981 and 2001 explain Scotland's higher mortality rates over that period. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analyses using population and mortality data from around the 1981, 1991 and 2001 censuses. SETTING: Great Britain (GB). PARTICIPANTS: Populations of Great Britain enumerated in the 1981, 1991 and 2001 censuses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Carstairs deprivation scores derived for wards (England and Wales) and postcode sectors (Scotland). Mortality rates adjusted for age, sex and deprivation decile. RESULTS: Between 1981 and 2001 Scotland became less deprived relative to the rest of Great Britain. Age and sex standardized all-cause mortality rates decreased by approximately 25% across Great Britain, including Scotland but mortality rates were on average 12% higher in Scotland in 1981 rising to 15% higher in 2001. While over 60% of the excess mortality in 1981 could be explained by differences in deprivation profile, less than half the excess could be explained in 1991 and 2001. After adjusting for age, sex and deprivation, excess mortality in Scotland rose from 4.7% (95% CI: 3.9% to 5.4%) in 1981 to 7.9% (95% CI: 7.2% to 8.7%) in 1991 and 8.2% (95% CI: 7.4% to 9.0%) in 2001. All deprivation deciles showed excess indicating that populations in Scotland living in areas of comparable deprivation to populations in the rest of Great Britain always had higher mortality rates. By 2001 the largest excesses were found in the most deprived areas in Scotland with a 17% higher mortality rate in the most deprived decile compared to similarly deprived areas in England and Wales. Excess mortality in Scotland has increased most among males aged <65 years. CONCLUSIONS: Scotland's relative mortality disadvantage compared to the rest of Great Britain, after allowing for deprivation, is worsening. By 1991 measures of deprivation no longer explained most of the excess mortality in Scotland and the unexplained excess has persisted during the 1990s. More research is required to understand what is causing this 'Scottish effect'.
Recent studies have shown that the prophylactic use of H2-receptor antagonists reduces both ulcer recurrence and the risk of ulcer complications. Despite these results, epidemiological studies have failed to show any evidence of an effect of gastric anti-secretory drugs on complicated ulcer disease in the community. Since 1979, it has been the policy of the gastroenterology department at Ninewells Hospital in Tayside to recommend long-term, continuous therapy with H2-receptor antagonists for patients with peptic ulcer; in contrast, prophylactic therapy is less commonly used in the rest of Scotland. The difference in the management of peptic ulcer between Tayside and Scotland presented an opportunity to study the population effects of the widespread use of continuous H2-receptor antagonists on the morbidity and mortality from ulcer disease. This study compared the trends in hospital admissions, gastric surgery, haemorrhage, perforation and mortality from ulcer disease using data supplied by the Information and Statistics Division of the Common Services Agency, Scottish Health Service, Edinburgh. During the 1980s, hospital admissions for peptic ulcer declined significantly in Tayside, whereas in Scotland there was no obvious downward trend. Gastric surgery for ulcer disease declined throughout Scotland although the fall was significantly steeper in Tayside than in the rest of Scotland. For the population in general, the rate of perforation decreased faster in Tayside than in the rest of Scotland, although the difference was not significant. The rate of admissions for ulcer haemorrhage declined substantially in Tayside whereas there was little change in Scotland as a whole. The decrease in mortality from ulcer disease in all groups except younger females was more marked in Tayside than in Scotland, although the differences were not significant. The magnitude of the differences between Tayside and Scotland, and in particular the consistency of these results across a broad range of indicators of ulcer disease, suggests that the policy of prescribing long-term, continuous therapy with H2-receptor antagonists has reduced both uncomplicated and complicated peptic ulcer in the community in Tayside.
The contribution of age groups and causes of death to the sex difference in life expectancy (SDLE) at birth in Japan and Scotland was estimated for the period 1965-1990. The purpose was to determine the particular age groups and causes of death responsible for the opposite trend of SDLE in the two countries. SDLE has been widening and narrowing in Japan and Scotland, respectively. The availability of complete and reliable data for these two developed countries facilitated the study. A method of decomposing the total SDLE into age and cause of death components was employed. About 40-60% contribution to SDLE was observed for ages after 65 years. Marked increase in the contribution of the 75+ age group and marked decrease in the contribution of ages 45-64 for Japan and Scotland, respectively, had a major effect on the widening and narrowing of SDLE in the two countries, respectively. The contribution of diseases of the circulatory system was the maximum until 1980 in Japan (< or = 1.8 years or 33.6%; cerebrovascular disease alone < or = 23.4%) and until 1990 in Scotland (< or = 3.1 years or 47.0%; ischemic heart disease alone < or = 42.0%). In Japan, the contribution of malignancy had a marked increased from 0.7 year (12.3%) to 2.0 years (32.6%), particularly for the trachea, bronchus and lung, while there was only a small increase in Scotland from 1.0 year (16.6%) to 1.2 years (19.8%) with an increase in the negative contribution of female breast malignancy. In Japan, the contribution of diseases of the respiratory system increased considerably from 0.5 year (8.5%) to 1.1 years (18.1%) while it decreased in Scotland from 1.0 year (16.5%) to 0.6 year (10.7%). About 60-75% of SDLE is due to the above three groups of causes of death. Malignancy and diseases of the respiratory system had a persistently increased contribution in Japan with resultant widening of SDLE by 0.9 year. Diseases of the circulatory system have always had a high contribution. On the contrary, in Scotland the contribution of diseases of the circulatory system and malignancy was practically unchanged and diseases of the respiratory system had a decrease with a consequent narrowing of SDLE by 0.4 year. Further epidemiological study is necessary to detect and analyze in detail the internal gradients (environmental and genetic-biological) of major contributor diseases to SDLE in Japan and Scotland.
OBJECTIVE: The Highlands have one of the highest suicide rates in Scotland. This paper describes suicide and deliberate self-harm in the Highlands in the last 20 years and explores possible reasons for the differences from the Scottish average. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of routine data from the SMRI/SMR01 scheme and information on deaths from the Registrar General. Suicide and undetermined deaths were combined in the analysis. SETTING: Highland and Scotland 1978-98. RESULTS: The high rates in Highland are caused by an excess of male deaths. Highland has had consistently high male suicide rates over the 20 year period compared to Scotland. These differences do not disappear when deaths of non-Highland residents are excluded. By comparison, deliberate self-harm admissions follow a similar pattern to Scotland as a whole. Causes of death differed from Scotland as a whole, with an over-representation of drowning, gases and firearm deaths. CONCLUSION: Highland suicide rates are elevated compared to Scotland. This is mainly due to an excess of deaths in men up to the age of 74 years, and is not accounted for by deaths of non-residents. Female deaths are not elevated in comparison to the rest of Scotland. Male attempted suicide rates do not differ from Scotland. Lethality of method--drowning, car exhausts and firearms--may contribute to the elevated male death rates.
Previous research suggests that there are significant differences in health between urban and rural areas. Health inequalities between the deprived and affluent in Scotland have been rising over time. The aim of this study was to examine health inequalities between deprived and affluent areas of Scotland for differing ruralities and look at how these have changed over time. Postcode sectors in Scotland were ranked by deprivation and the 20% most affluent and 20% most deprived areas were found using the Carstairs indicator and male unemployment. Scotland was then split into 4 rurality types. Ratios of health status between the most deprived and most affluent areas were investigated using all cause mortality for the Scottish population, 1979-2001. These were calculated over time for 1979-1983, 1989-1993, 1998-2001. Multilevel Poisson modelling was carried out for all of Scotland excluding Grampian to assess inequalities in the population. There was an increase in inequalities between 1981 and 2001, which was greatest in remote rural Scotland for both males and females; however, male health inequalities remained higher in urban areas throughout this period. In 2001 female health inequalities were higher in remote rural areas than urban areas. Health inequalities amongst the elderly (age 65+) in 2001 were greater in remote rural Scotland than urban areas for both males and females.
OBJECTIVE: To determine the changes in incidence of and mortality from gastric cancer in Scotland between 1978 and 1987 and in the operative workload in Lothian between 1979 and 1988. DESIGN: Analysis of national incidence statistics for gastric cancer derived from the Scottish national cancer registry, deaths from gastric cancer recorded by the registrar general for Scotland, and Lothian surgical audit data. SETTING: Scotland and Lothian Health Board area. PATIENTS: Patients in Scotland with gastric cancer during 1978 to 1987 inclusive; patients in Scotland with gastric cancer recorded on their death certificate as cause of death during 1978 to 1987; patients who had an operation in Lothian for gastric cancer during 1979 to 1988. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in incidence of and mortality from gastric cancer in Scotland from 1978 to 1987 and in the number of operations performed for gastric cancer in Lothian from 1979 to 1988. RESULTS: Mortality from gastric cancer in Scotland fell by about 25% over the 10 years. The incidence and standardised incidence of gastric cancer showed a marginal decline of about 9%. The differences in trends between incidence and mortality were significant (p less than 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the surgical workload associated with gastric cancer is not declining. This is because the incidence has remained almost static, which may be due to the relative increase in the numbers of older people in the population, who are at greater risk of developing gastric cancer. Gastric cancer should not be regarded as a disease in decline. Incidence and workload should determine resources allocated to this disease rather than mortality statistics.
BACKGROUND: Male suicide rates continued to increase in Scotland when rates in England and Wales declined. Female rates decreased, but at a slower rate than in England and Wales. Previous work has suggested higher than average rates in some rural areas of Scotland. This paper describes trends in suicide and undetermined death in Scotland by age, gender, geographical area and method for 1981 - 1999. METHODS: Deaths from suicide and undetermined cause in Scotland from 1981 - 1999 were identified using the records of the General Registrar Office. The deaths of people not resident in Scotland were excluded from the analysis. Death rates were calculated by area of residence, age group, gender, and method. Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for rates by geographical area. RESULTS: Male rates of death by suicide and undetermined death increased by 35% between 1981 - 1985 and 1996 - 1999. The largest increases were in the youngest age groups. All age female rates decreased by 7% in the same period, although there were increases in younger female age groups. The commonest methods of suicide in men were hanging, self-poisoning and car exhaust fumes. Hanging in males increased by 96.8% from 45 per million to 89 per million, compared to a 30.7% increase for self-poisoning deaths. In females, the commonest method of suicide was self-poisoning. Female hanging death rates increased in the time period. Male SMRs for 1981 - 1999 were significantly elevated in Western Isles (SMR 138, 95% CI 112 - 171), Highland (135, CI 125 - 147), and Greater Glasgow (120, CI 115 - 125). The female SMR was significantly high only in Greater Glasgow (120, CI 112 - 128). CONCLUSION: All age suicide rates increased in men and decreased in women in Scotland in 1981 - 1999. Previous findings of higher than expected male rates in some rural areas were supported. Rates were also high in Greater Glasgow, one of the most deprived areas of Scotland. There were changes in the methods used, with an increase in hanging deaths in men, and a smaller increase in hanging in women. Altered choice of method may have contributed to the increased male deaths.
OBJECTIVE: We describe the CD4 database of the Scottish Immunology Laboratories, and its uses and limitations for making short-term predictions of a CD4 cell count less than or equal to 200 x 10(6)/l (CD4(200)) and of adult AIDS cases in Scotland. DESIGN: The date of the earlier of two consecutive samples (typically 3 months apart) both with CD4 cell counts less than or equal to 200 x 10(6)/l was taken to define when a patient had passed the CD4(200) threshold (referred to as a CD4(200) case). The CD4 database comprises HIV-1-seropositive adults in the four main risk groups [homosexual/bisexual (1), injecting drug users (IDU; 2), heterosexual contact (3), and undetermined (9)] from Scotland's three principal areas of population (Lothian, Tayside and Strathclyde) who have had a CD4 cell count of less than or equal to 500 x 10(6)/l. SETTING: Three hospitals in Scotland, the Communicable Diseases (Scotland Unit) and the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK. PATIENTS, PARTICIPANTS: The CD4 database at 31 December 1990 listed 813 patients (of whom 52% were IDU): 390 were CD4(200)/AIDS cases (of whom 44% were IDU) and 192 were AIDS cases (of whom 32% were IDU). RESULTS: Individuals in risk groups 1, 2 and 3 were nearly equally represented among newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections in 1990. However, among patients with moderate immunodeficiency, IDU accounted for 50% of the total number. Co-incidence of first CD4 cell count with CD4(200) diagnosis was recorded for only 28% of IDU, but in over 50% of cases for each of the other exposure groups (57%). There was a highly significant decrease of around 80 x 10(6)/l per calendar-year-of-referral in first CD4 cell counts for patients on the CD4 database; and decreases of around 40 x 10(6)/lper decade of age at referral. Since 1988, median time from CD4(200) to AIDS diagnosis in Scotland has been approximately 2 years. Back-projection was applied to annual CD4(200)/AIDS diagnoses before 31 December 1990 and to AIDS diagnoses. From AIDS diagnoses, the central epidemic scenario underestimated past HIV-1-antibody-positive reports (up to the end of 1985). More dramatic underestimation was occasioned by back-projection from CD4(200)/AIDS diagnoses [319 inferred HIV infections compared with 445 HIV-1-antibody-positive reports to Communicable Diseases (Scotland) Unit]. CONCLUSIONS: First CD4 cell counts should complement new HIV-1 diagnoses. Past referrals for immunological monitoring were not uniform between risk groups in Scotland. Underascertainment of CD4(200) cases is a problem when CD4(200) cases are used as a basis for back-projection. More information concerning the incubation distribution from HIV seroconversion to CD4(200) diagnosis is required. It is likely that there are twice as many CD4(200)/AIDS as there are diagnosed cases of AIDS.
Mortality rates in Denmark and Scotland are high compared to rates of the other countries of the European Union (EU). Moreover, the evolution of mortality between 1970 and 1999 is very different between the two countries. Differences in lifestyle as possible explanations have been explored. Mortality rates from all causes, total cardiovascular, total cancer and lung cancer for both sexes and from female breast cancer were provided by WHO. Food supply data have been obtained from FAO and smoking rates from published data. Risk factor distribution has been obtained from the Monica survey. The initial mortality was high in both countries for all diseases explored, but highest in Scotland. Progressively the mortality rates between Scotland and Denmark have equalized, especially due to a more rapid decrease of mortality in Scotland. The decrease in all-cause mortality, both in Scotland, Denmark and the EU is almost exclusively due to a decrease of non-cancer mortality, especially TCV mortality. In conclusion, changes in smoking habits and in animal (saturated) fat intake, more pronounced in Scotland, offer the best explanation for the observed changes in mortality. Smoking and nutrition appear to be the most important determinants of mortality in industrialized countries.
Secular and cohort trends in mortality from cancer in Scotland during 1953-93, and incidence during 1960-90, were analysed using individual records from the national mortality and registration files. For certain cancer sites, the secular analyses of mortality were extended back to 1911 by use of published data. Mortality from cancer at older ages in Scotland has increased over the last 40 years. In each sex, this trend has been dominated by the effects of smoking: all-cancer rates and rates of lung cancer, now the most common fatal cancer in men and in women in Scotland, reached a peak in the cohort of men born at the turn of the century and the cohort of women born in the 1920s. For much of the period, the Scottish all-age rates of lung cancer were the highest reported in the world; they are now decreasing on a secular basis in men, but are still increasing in women. There have also been large increases at older ages in the incidence and mortality rates for cancer of the prostate in recent years. bladder cancer, nervous system cancer, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, myeloma and leukaemia; for each there is likely to be a considerable artefactual element to the increase, with differing degrees of possibility that there may in addition be an element of real increase. Substantial decreases in mortality at all ages have occurred for stomach and colorectal cancers and substantial increases at all ages for pleural cancer and melanoma. Rates of mortality from breast cancer, the most common cancer in women in Scotland, have generally increased over the past 80 years; a temporary cessation in this upward trend occurred in the years during and after the Second World War, and recently rates have turned downward, probably at least in part because of better treatment. Mortality from ovarian cancer, the second most common reproductive-related female tumour in Scotland, has also increased at older ages. At younger ages, mortality from cancer in Scotland has decreased, especially in men, whereas incidence has not. This divergence, which has been a consequence of better treatment, has occurred especially for cancers of the testis and ovary, Hodgkin's disease and leukaemia. There have been increases at young adult ages, however, in both mortality from and incidence of oral and pharyngeal, oesophageal and laryngeal cancers in men, and melanoma and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in each sex. Cervical cancer rates at young ages also increased, but this trend has reversed for incidence in the most recent birth cohorts. Incidence rates have also increased for testicular cancer in young adults and leukaemia in children. With the possible exceptions of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and childhood leukaemia, the increasing rates are likely largely to reflect real rises in incidence, and they highlight the need for investigation of the causes of these cancers, and, when causes are known, for preventive action.
AIMS: To examine the effect of licence change for thioridazine at the end of 2000 on the prescription of antipsychotic drugs in England and Scotland, and investigate changes in poisons information inquiries and, for Edinburgh, poisons admissions. METHODS: Prescription data for antipsychotic drugs were obtained for England and Scotland and quarterly trends examined for 2000 and 2001. Accesses to the UK National Poisons Information Service website TOXBASE for antipsychotic products were examined for the same period. For Scotland telephone enquiry data, and admission data to the Edinburgh Poisons Unit were also evaluated. Trends in poisonings were compared with prescribing change. RESULTS: In England prescriptions for thioridazine fell rapidly in 2001 from approximately 35% of market share to less than 5%, and were replaced by risperidone, chlorpromazine and olanzapine. TOXBASE accesses fell from 39.3% of antipsychotics to 4.4%. Accesses for chlorpromazine, olanzapine and risperidone increased. In Scotland prescribing of thioridazine was similar to changes in England, but it was principally replaced by chlorpromazine. These changes were mirrored by TOXBASE accesses, telephone enquiries and in-patient admissions. The ratio of TOXBASE accesses for thioridazine to prescription numbers for the drug increased after the licence change. CONCLUSIONS: Licence change produced rapid change in prescribing behaviour within 3 months. Prescribing behaviour in England and Scotland was different. Changes in prescribing were mirrored by changes in accesses for poisons information in both England and Scotland, and in Edinburgh by hospital admissions. The increase in the ratio of TOXBASE accesses to prescriptions for thioridazine suggests doctors may have become more aware of its potential toxicity.
BACKGROUND: Although incidence data for work-related ill-health in the UK are available, more detailed information for smaller geographical areas has hitherto been unpublished. AIMS: To estimate the incidence of work-related ill-health reported by clinical specialists in Scotland, 2002-2003. METHODS: THOR (The Health and Occupation Reporting network) is a UK wide reporting scheme for work-related ill-health. In 2002-2003, 241 out of 2162 physicians in THOR were based in Scotland. We have summarized the reported cases and calculated incidence rates for categories of ill-health by age, gender and industry. The UK Labour Force Survey (2002) was used to provide denominator data, with comparisons made between rates for Scotland and the rest of the UK. RESULTS: In 2002-2003, 4043 estimated cases were reported from Scotland. Mental ill-health was most frequently reported (41%); followed by musculoskeletal disorders (31%), skin disorders (16%), respiratory disease (10%), hearing disorders (2%) and infection (1%). The reported average annual incidence rate per 100,000 employees for all work-related ill-health in Scotland was 86.0. The highest reported rate for mental ill-health was found for employees in public administration and defence (76.7 per 100,000), and health and social work (72.3 per 100,000). The construction industry had the highest reported rate of musculoskeletal disorders (41.6 per 100,000), while hairdressers appeared at most risk of developing occupational contact dermatitis (rate=86.4 per 100,000). CONCLUSIONS: Despite its limitations, THOR has indicated types of work-related ill-health and related industries for targeted disease prevention in Scotland.
BACKGROUND: The objective of the research was to study the pattern of appendicectomies in Scotland over the last 20 years. METHOD: Routine National Health Service data on patients discharged after appendicectomy in Scotland during 1973-1993 were analysed. RESULTS: For all ages, the appendicectomy rate has fallen steadily from 1.97 per 1000 (10,325 operations) in 1973 to 0.96 per 1000 (4906 operations) in 1993. The proportion of emergency operations increased from 76 to 80 per cent. The median age at operation rose from 18 to 22 years. The proportion of male patients remained higher for emergency operations, whereas the proportion of females, and age at operation, were both higher for non-emergency appendicectomies. In the period 1992-1995, appendicectomy rates were higher for patients with postcodes in areas of greater deprivation, particularly for children aged 0-14 years. Variation in childhood appendicectomy rates across Scotland has declined: apart from Ayrshire and Arran, which had a lower than expected rate, no Health Board had a rate significantly different from the rate in the rest of Scotland in 1993. The case fatality rate fell from 7.0 per 1000 to 1.6 per 1000 (with all the latter deaths in elderly patients). CONCLUSION: Over the last 20 years, appendicectomy rates have declined in Scotland and there is now greater uniformity of childhood appendicectomy rates across Scotland.
BACKGROUND: Our aim was to assess the geographical, social and hospital variation in carotid endarterectomy (CEA) over time in Scotland using routinely generated data, and to assess the outcome of CEA in terms of the 7 day case-fatality. METHODS: A descriptive, retrospective study was carried out using computerized medical records at national level of all patients in Scotland who had a CEA during 1981-1996. Medical record linkage was used to identify the study population with the index event specified as CEA. The annual rate of CEA in Scotland and length of hospital stay for the procedure were determined. The geographical distribution of CEA, and the social circumstances of these CEA patients were described. Hospitals where CEAs were performed were evaluated in terms of high-, medium- and low-volume hospitals. RESULTS: A total of 2,892 CEA patients were identified for the period 1981-1996. The CEA rate increased from 1.2/100,000 (1989) to 8.6/100,000 (1996) with a maximum of 19/100,000 in Tayside Health Board (1994). Most of the CEAs in Scotland after the publication of the trials were in a small number of 'high'-volume hospitals (> 50 operations/year). There was no gender inequality in the provision of CEA in Scotland but substantial social and regional variation was observed. The 7 day operative mortality of 1.5 per cent was higher than that observed in the randomized trials. CONCLUSIONS: CEA in Scotland is performed now at about the expected rate, but there are still probably too many operations being carried out in low-volume hospitals. Length of stay has decreased over time. The operative mortality, however, was higher than in the randomized trials.