The effect of census errors on life table estimates of black mortality.
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Between July 1973 and December 1974, 304 autopsies were done at Hopital Mama Yemo, Kinshasa, Republic of Zaire. The causes of death and sudden death were tabulated and analyzed. The frequency of various diseases and groups of diseases among all the individuals and a large subset of individuals who died traumatically are tabulated and discussed. The present report is the most quantitative, albeit only, current estimate of mortality and prevalence of diseases in Zaire.
Formulae are derived and examples given for the expected values of the order statistics from a sample of several groups or families of equal size where the group members have intra-class correlation t. As t increases from O the means of the highest ranking individuals are little reduced initially, but as t approaches 1 the change becomes more rapid, the total reduction depending on the number of groups. The effect on selection differentials of the intra-class correlation of family members is generally small for t less than 0.5, such as if selection is practised on individual performance. If, however, family mean performance is used in an index, the selection differentials may be substantially reduced.
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Data on maternal deaths were collected from a randomly selected sample of medical institutions in the Western State of Nigeria for the years 1972 and 1973. An overall maternal mortality rate of 3.8/1000 total births were recorded for 1972 and 1973 respectively. The major causes of maternal mortality were haemorrhage, obstructed labour, eclampsia, anaemia of pregnancy and infection.
The paper provides a general method for estimating age-reporting errors from two consecutive census populations along the lines suggested by Demeny and Shorter (1968). When the true age structures in the two censuses are the same, the general method and the Demeny-Shorter method give identical results. However, the latter method faces increasingly the problem of inconsistency of the results with the underlying sssumptions as the disparity between the age structures becomes more and more significant. The present method is more general in the sense that it always gives consitent results irrespective of the populations under consideration.
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In cooperation with the Austrian National Institute for Statistics the incidence-rates of breast cancer in Austria in the period of 1971-1975 were investigated. The incidence-rate of breast cancer (50 new cases/year/100,000 women) is higher than the incidence-rate of cervical or endometrium carcinoma. The increasing risk of the higher age-groups, which is especially expressed by the incidence-rate of 145 in the age-group of 70 or more years, is pointed out. This findings are of great consequence to the system of preventive medical care. In urban areas the incidence of breast cancer seems to be higher than in rural district.
The problem of road traffic accidents in developing countries is now becoming a cause for concern. This is more so as preventive measures have not kept pace with economic progress and development. This paper reviews the present situation in West Malaysia, one of the better developed countries of the East, during the period 1970 to 1975. A comparative study has been made between the United States and Malaysia. To enable the urgency of the problem in developing countries to be appreciated the increases in the country's population and in the number of vehicles in use and their relation to the lesser increase in road mileage over the period of study have been discussed. The study has considered every aspect of the causative factors leading to traffic accidents, such as the effects of weather, seasonal variation, and road and lighting conditions. The common human errors leading to accidents have been discussed. Other factors, such as the ethnic distribution in Malaysia, and their relation to road accidents have shown the effect of the social structure on the problems. The data evaluated in this study make it clear that preventive measures are very necessary in underdeveloped as well as in developed countries.
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Identified and evaluated were a number of medical and sociological data, e.g. diagnosis, age, population of the place of residence, financially responsible agencies, on 1399 rehabilitees who were admitted to the Dortmund vocational re-training centre during the first five years of its operation (1971-1975). The primary diagnoses (highly identical with those indicative of vocational rehabilitation) and the overall diagnoses (primary and secondary diagnoses) were classified into disease groups according to the ICD and compared with the frequency distribution in the 1970 microcensus. Significance computations determined yearly deviations of the different data, i.e., a significantly steady increase in emotional disturbances. The classification of diseases and disabilities clearly shows the problem complex of adequate comprehensive therapy and medical care, and marks the role of medicine at a vocational re-training centre.
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In applications of statistical methods to medical diagnosis, information on patients' diseases and symptoms is collected and the resulting data-base is used to diagnose new patients. The data-structure is complicated by a number of factors, two of which are examined here: selection bias and unstable population. Under reasonable conditions, no correction for selection bias is required when assessing probabilities for diseases based on symptom information, and it is suggested that these "diagnostic distributions" should form the principal object of study. Transformation of these distributions under changing population structure is considered and shown to take on a simple form in many situations. It is argued that the prevailing paradigm of diagnostic statistics, which concentrates on incidence of symptoms for given disease, is largely inappropriate and should be replaced by an emphasis on diagnostic distributions. The generalized logistic model is seen to fit naturally into the new framework.
A likelihood ratio test is given for distinguishing skewness from commingled distributions, using a power transform to remove skewness appropriately for each of the alternatives tested. The alternative hypotheses postulate that the transformed data are from one normal or a mixture of two or three normal homoscedastic distributions. Since each mixture has unique asymmetry, skewness is estimated simultaneously with the means, proportions and variance of components. Commingling cannot be rigorously proven in this way, as some other transform may provide a better approximation to normality. However, the error of asserting admixture whenever there is skewness has been avoided, and estimates of admixture parameters provide a basis for more conclusive tests in relatives or other populations. Two examples are given, one in which adjustment for skeweness left evidence of commingling.
Two different nomograms corresponding to finite and infinite populations were devised to obtain a necessary, minimum sample size at a 95% confidence rate when the distribution of sample proportions calculated from binomial data was approximately normal. They could also be used for obtaining the 95% confidence limits of the population proportion from a sample proportion after having carried out a work.