Urban growth and population densities.
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Existing methods for estimating population parameters in settings of data deficiency do not provide techniques for analysis of commonly available longitudinal data. In setting where complete population data is unavailable, longitudinal data recorded for only a subset of the total population are often available (e.g., event registers, genealogies). In this article we present and evaluate models which derive population parameters for the population subgroup underlying such longitudinal data. Using the distribution of individual times until first recorded event within a measurement interval, population parameters are estimated which provide basic denominator data for analyzing event occurrence. The models which we derive are especially suited to records which may include migration and population growth trends. The use of the models is demonstrated and evaluated through an application to genealogical records for a nineteenth-century population. Possible extensions of these models and their major limitations are also discussed.
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In the Federal Republic of Germany a decline of population is expected, because fertility is very low. This article deals with the implications of this trend for the health system. On the basis of population models and population forcasts the author comes to the conclusion that in the long run the burden of health costs will not become lower but higher, because of the growing proportion of old people. Nevertheless it is supposed that the influence of other factors than demographic ones may be greater.
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We examine nations which deviate significantly from the -2/3 size-density slope previously observed for the aggregated political subdivisions of 98 modern nations and previously derived from the theory of time-minimization. We correct Stephan's original list of deviant nations, demonstrate that all slopes more negative than -2/3 were due to the erroneous inclusion of cities in the original data sets, develop a theory to account for the less negative deviant slopes, and test the theory both through statistical manipulation of current data and through analysis of available historical data.