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At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
PubMed1996

On the utility of population forecasts.

Many customers demand population forecasts, particularly for small areas. Although the forecast evaluation literature is extensive, it is dominated by a focus on accuracy. We go beyond accuracy by examining the concept of forecast utility in an evaluation of a sample of 2,709 counties and census tracts. We find that forecasters provide "value-added" knowledge for areas experiencing rapid change or areas with relatively large populations. For other areas, reduced value is more common than added value. Our results suggest that new forecasting strategies and methods such as composite modeling may substantially improve forecast utility.

Bias↗
PubMed1990

Stochastic methods in population forecasting.

"This paper presents a stochastic version of the demographic cohort-component method of forecasting future population. In this model the sizes of future age-sex groups are non-linear functions of random future vital rates. An approximation to their joint distribution can be obtained using linear approximations or simulation. A stochastic formulation points to the need for new empirical work on both the autocorrelations and the cross-correlations of the vital rates. Problems of forecasting declining mortality and fluctuating fertility are contrasted. A volatility measure for fertility is presented. The model can be used to calculate approximate prediction intervals for births using data from deterministic cohort-component forecasts. The paper compares the use of expert opinion in mortality forecasting with simple extrapolation techniques to see how useful each approach has been in the past. Data from the United States suggest that expert opinion may have caused systematic bias in the forecasts."

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1978

Population forecasts for health planning: an assessment of the state of the art.

Health planning agencies make use of age-sex detailed forecasts of population. This article evaluates sources of forecasts, notes the essential role of assumptions in forecasts, and indicates the general quality of techniques for projecting components of population change. It clarifies for health planners what demographers can--and can not--deliver.

Demography↗
PubMed1991

[Uncertainty variants in population forecasts for the Netherlands].

"Because of the uncertainty of population forecasts the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics publishes a Low and a High variant next to the Medium variant.... Variants are obtained by using a deterministic model. Hence the probability that the interval between the variants [covers] the true future values is unknown. Under reasonable assumptions a statistical confidence interval for total population size can be derived. The basic assumption is that the forecast errors of population growth are serially correlated. If a first-order autoregressive model is estimated on the basis of all population forecasts published...since 1950, it turns out that the interval between the Low and High variants corresponds reasonably close to a two-thirds confidence interval in the next two decades." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Developed Countries↗
PubMed1995

[Evaluation of Dutch population forecasts].

The author assesses the accuracy of population forecasts in the Netherlands. "Forecast errors may have been caused by either failures of the forecast model or by developments which do not correspond to the expectations. Due to large errors of forecasts made in the 1960s and 1970s a new forecasting model (the cohort-component-model) has been developed and used since. Important changes of trends in fertility, mortality and external migration were incorporated gradually in the hypotheses of successive forecasts. However, short term fluctuations may sometimes lead to incorrect adjustments of long term assumptions." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Demography↗
PubMed1985

Nuptiality models and the two-sex problem in national population forecasts.

"This paper describes the two-sex problem in nuptiality models, focussing on applications in national population forecasts. Requirements for a realistic two-sex marriage model are mentioned, together with additional considerations important in the context of official forecasts. Recent nuptiality models violate the requirements to a certain extent and/or do not meet the additional considerations. A new model, used in the 1980-based population forecasts of the Netherlands compiled by the Netherlands' Central Bureau of Statistics, is described." (summary in FRE)

Demography↗
PubMed1992

An evaluation of population forecast errors for Florida and its counties.

The authors evaluate the forecasting accuracy of population projections formulated at state and county levels for Florida. They find that "projections of Florida population made in the 1970s and 1980s had errors...of approximately 2-3 percent for 5-year horizons, 5-6 percent for 10-year horizons and 8-9 percent for 15-year horizons. County projections had errors averaging approximately 5, 10 and 15 percent for these three lengths of horizon, respectively. Based on comparisons with other studies of state and substate population projections, we believe this is a good record of forecast accuracy...."

Americas↗
PubMed1985

[Population forecasts for the Netherlands after 1984].

The results of the most recent official population projections for the Netherlands are presented. The methods and assumptions used in preparing the projections are described, and three alternative projections are provided up to the year 2035. Projections by sex, age, and marital status are also discussed. "The population forecasting model applied belongs to the class of cohort-component models and its relevant components are fertility, mortality, external migration, administrative corrections, marriage of never-married persons, divorce, marriage of divorced persons, transition to widowhood and marriage of widowed persons...." (summary in ENG)

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1982

[The nuptiality model in the 1980-based population forecasts].

"This article describes the nuptiality model that was used in the 1980-based population forecasts of the Netherlands, released by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics...in December 1981." Particular attention is paid to the need for a realistic two-sex marriage model. A model is presented that the author suggests is an improvement on the British model on which it is based, in that it uses originally specified one-sex nuptiality rates, which are adjusted in order to achieve consistency. (summary in ENG)

Developed Countries↗
PubMed1993

[Population forecast for Hungary, 1993-2020].

"The author discusses the results of [an] age-specific technical population forecast up to 2020, based on the latest available population and vital statistics [for Hungary]. The forecast starts from population figures as at 1 January 1993, that have been statistically updated from the 1990 census data, and it assumes that indicators of demographic trends (fertility, mortality) of 1992 will remain unchanged in the period between 1993 and 2020." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

Age Factors↗
PubMed1982

[Population forecasts for the Netherlands after 1980].

"This article deals with the results of the most recent population forecasts for the Netherlands, compiled by the Central Bureau of Statistics. Some attention is also given to the methods and the assumptions that were used." The projections include three variants regarding marriages, births, and international migration. (summary in ENG)

Developed Countries↗
PubMed1995

Population forecasting: do simple models outperform complex models?

"This paper reviews the growing literature on population forecasting to examine a curious paradox: despite continuing refinements in the specification of models used to represent population dynamics, simple exponential growth models, it is claimed, continue to outperform such more complex models in forecasting exercises. Shrinking a large complex model in order to simplify it typically involves two processes: aggregation and decomposition. Both processes are known to introduce biases into the resulting representations of population dynamics. Thus it is difficult to accept the conclusion that simple models outperform complex models. Moreover, assessments of forecasting performance are notoriously difficult to carry out, because they inevitably depend not only on the models used but also on the particular historical periods selected for examination.... This paper reviews some of the recent debate on the simple versus complex modeling issue and links it to the questions of model bias and distributional momentum impacts." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Demography↗
PubMed1993

[Mortality in the Netherlands population forecasts].

Trends in life expectancy in the Netherlands are reviewed, using mortality data from the 1992 official Netherlands population forecasts. Data are presented by age and sex. "A main conclusion is that mortality in recent years has developed more favourably for men than for women." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Age Factors↗