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PubMed1998

Mortality decline in The Netherlands in the period 1850-1992: a turning point analysis.

The aim of this paper is to give a detailed and fairly objective description of rapid mortality decline in The Netherlands between 1850 and 1992 with respect to the start, end, and phases of the decline. Turning points were estimated for the standardized mortality trend, and for age and sex-specific trends between 1850-1992. The technique used was derived from spline functions. The turning points divided the trends into phases with different paces of decline. Standardized mortality started to decline rapidly in The Netherlands around 1880. Four phases in the period of decline could be distinguished: 1880-1917 (1.2% annually), 1917-1955 (1.6%), 1955-1970 (0.4%), 1970-1992 (1.1%). For nearly all age groups, the most rapid decline occurred in a period comparable to 1917-1955. Causes of death which might have shaped the standardized mortality trend are, among others, respiratory tuberculosis (1917), heart disease (except ischemic) (1955), and ischemic heart disease (1970). Causes of death that shaped the mortality trend are related to trends of determinants of mortality decline. The technique used in this paper can also be applied to other trends e.g. fertility decline.

Cause of Death↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Impact of mortality decline on marital duration and length of post-dissolution life at different divorce levels.

"The effects of changing life span on certain life cycle measures of post-marital life are examined with the help of numerically computed values of such measures under various mortality and divorce levels. The results show that in the absence of divorce the increase in mean marital duration effected by a mortality decline is even greater than the increase in total post-marriage life. Thus, in such populations, the expected length of widowhood actually declines in spite of the fact that a greater proportion of women face widowhood as mortality falls. But this is not true for populations with moderate or high divorce levels, which would experience relatively smaller improvements in mean marital durations and consequently the length of post-dissolution life increases through a mortality decline in such populations." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND ITA)

Demography↗
PubMed2005

Why do postmenopausal African-American women not benefit from overall breast cancer mortality decline?

BACKGROUND: An overall decline in U.S. female breast cancer mortality in the 1990s has been reported. However, several studies have shown that mortality trends are different for White women and African-American (AA) women. The purpose of this study was to assess differences in time trends and patterns of female breast cancer mortality among women by race and age in Ohio. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Joinpoint regression (JR) and age-period-cohort (APC) approaches were used to evaluate temporal changes in mortality and to assess period and birth generation impacts on observed patterns. Logistic regression was used to assess racial differences in tumor staging and grading among women diagnosed with breast cancer in Ohio from 1996 to 2000. Mortality data were obtained from NCHS (National Center for Health Statistics) via Surveillance Research Program, National Cancer Institute SEER*Stat software; Ohio incidence data were provided by the Ohio Cancer Incidence Surveillance System. RESULTS: Among women aged 30-74, a significant decline of 2.8% was noted since 1988 for White women. AA women in this age group have experienced significant decline (by 0.9%) since 1983. White women aged 30-39 years experienced a decline in mortality of 3.5% per year in the period 1986-2001, while decline by 2.3% was observed among Black women of that age since 1984. Among the age categories 40-49, 50-59, and 60-74, a decline in mortality rates was observed among White women in the 1990s. The decline was observed also among AA women aged 40-49, beginning in the mid 1980s, but not in the older AA age groups. Specifically, in AA women 60-74 and 75+, a mortality increase was observed within the entire study period (0.9% and 1.4%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of the data for Ohio suggests that AA women do not equally benefit from the overall decline in breast cancer mortality that is often sited. This is especially true for AA postmenopausal women who continue to experience an increase in breast cancer mortality. In light of existing literature and this analysis of data from the state of Ohio, we conclude that the reason for these differences lies mostly in disparities in access to care, as well as in differences in stage at diagnosis and biological determinants (grading) between White and Black women.

Adult↗
PubMed1994

The importance of social intervention in England's mortality decline: the evidence reviewed.

This paper examines the first phase of England's mortality decline, which commenced in the middle of the eighteenth century, and proceeded fitfully down to the end of the nineteenth. It finds that recent research in population history has weakened the explanation known as the McKeown thesis, but that the alternative synthesis, developed by Szreter, does not stand up well to a scrutiny of the evidence on infant mortality and morbidity. It concludes by pointing out that, contrary to the received version, diarrhoeal diseases continued in defiance of late-Victorian public health measures, but appear to have become less lethal, sharing in the general decline in the lethality of illness found by J. C. Riley for the second half of the nineteenth century.

History, Modern 1601-↗
PubMed2004

[Stagnation in mortality decline among elderly in The Netherlands].

PURPOSE: To assess whether the stagnation in old age (80+) mortality decline observed in the Netherlands in the 1980s, continued in the 1990s and which factors contributed to this stagnation. Emphasis is on the role of smoking. METHODS: Poisson regression with linear splines was applied to total and cause-specific (3-digit) mortality data by age, year of death (1950-1999) and sex. Age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to determine whether the trends followed period and/or cohort patterns. ICD Revisions were bridged using a concordance table. RESULTS: A sudden reversal in old age mortality occurred around 1980, leading to a stagnation in the decline and even an increase during the 1980s and 1990s. Smoking related cancers, COPD and diseases specifically related to old age contributed to this stagnation. Trends in smoking-related cancers and COPD showed a cohort pattern--especially for males. When excluding these smoking related diseases, the trends in old-age mortality in the Netherlands showed an increasing stagnation for both sexes. IMPLICATIONS: Generation-wise changes in smoking can only partly explain the stagnation in mortality. Other factors like increased frailty and changes in medical and social services for the elderly probably have played a more decisive role in explaining the recent stagnation.

Age Distribution↗
PubMed2005

All-cause mortality in males with sleep apnoea syndrome: declining mortality rates with age.

The objective of this study was to assess whether an increasing severity of sleep apnoea is associated with increased all-cause mortality hazards and to assess whether the syndrome is associated with excess mortality, in comparison with the general population. Participants included 14,589 adult males, aged 20-93 yrs, referred to the sleep clinics with suspected sleep apnoea or diagnosed with sleep apnoea. Altogether, 372 deaths were recorded after a median follow-up of 4.6 yrs. The crude all-cause mortality rate was 5.55/1,000 patient yrs, increasing with apnoea severity. Cox proportional analysis revealed that both respiratory disturbance index (RDI) and body mass index significantly influenced all-cause mortality hazard but there was no interaction between them. Males with respiratory disturbance index >30 had a significantly higher mortality hazard rate than the reference group of males with RDI < or =10. Comparing mortality rates of males with moderate/severe sleep apnoea to the general population revealed that only males aged <50 yrs showed an excess mortality rate. The hazard of mortality in sleep apnoea increases with apnoea severity as indexed by respiratory disturbance index. Moderate and severe levels of sleep apnoea are moderately associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, in comparison with the general population, particularly in males aged <50 yrs. The lack of information about possible confounders and treatment effects should be taken into consideration in the interpretation of these results.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Declining mortality rates for nonmelanoma skin cancers in West Germany, 1968-99.

BACKGROUND: Mortality analyses based on routine death certification provide a rough guide to the magnitude of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) mortality. OBJECTIVES: To examine time trends in NMSC mortality over a 32-year period for the territory of West Germany which included a population of about 66 million people. METHODS: We analysed the NMSC skin cancer mortality data (1968-99) from the former West Germany including West Berlin. We calculated the age-specific and age-standardized mortality rates (World Standard Population) and used a Poisson regression to estimate the underlying age, cohort and period effects. RESULTS: The age-standardized mortality rate decreased from 0.56 per 100,000 in 1968 to 0.24 per 100,000 in 1999 among men and from 0.42 per 100,000 in 1968 to 0.11 per 100,000 in 1999 among women. The estimated annual percentage decrease of the age-standardized NMSC skin cancer mortality rate was -2.3%[95% confidence interval (CI) -2.6 to -1.9] among men and -3.5% (95% CI -4.0 to -3.1) among women during the period 1968-99. This decline is mainly due to a rate decrease in people aged 80 years or more. The change in NMSC skin cancer mortality rates was best explained by age, cohort and period effects. CONCLUSIONS: The NMSC mortality in West Germany showed a continuous decrease from 1968 to 1999. The favourable mortality decline by birth cohort in the most recent birth cohort is an indicator of a likely decline in mortality in the future.

Adult↗
PubMed1992

Declining mortality rates for cancer of the rectum in the United States: 1940-1985.

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: Age-standardized and age-specific mortality rates for cancer of the rectum and cancer of the colon were calculated according to race and gender for 1940-1985; age-standardized rates were calculated according to geographic region for 1950-1980. RESULTS: Mortality rates for cancer of the rectum decreased among white and black people of each gender, in most age categories and all regions of the country. Concurrent with this decline, mortality rates for cancer of the colon increased among all race-gender groups except white females, among whom it decreased. CONCLUSIONS: The decline in mortality rates for cancer of the rectum has been largely unappreciated. When deaths occurring from 1940 to 1985 from cancer of the rectum are combined with those from cancer of the colon, mortality rates are increased. However, this combination of sites obscures the divergent trends, which suggest that these cancers have causes that are at least somewhat different.

Black or African American↗
PubMed1980

Socioeconomic forces as determinants of childhood mortality decline in Rhode Island, 1860-1970: a comparison with England and Wales.

The author tests McKeown's hypothesis that socioeconomic improvement was the most important cause of mortality decline in England and Wales. First, McKeown's basic work is replicated using data on childhood mortality in Rhode Island between 1860 and 1970. "Then the effect of socioeconomic change on mortality change is examined in ways that differentiate it from other effects. Next, socioeconomic and public health effects on disease are differentiated by computing case-fatality and incidence rates." The results provide support for McKeown's argument.

Americas↗
PubMed1986

The effect of health services on mortality: decline in death rates from amenable and non-amenable causes in Finland, 1969-81.

The impact of the Finnish health services on mortality from natural causes amenable to interventions by them was estimated for the period 1969 to 1981. During this period, mortality from amenable causes fell by 63% among males and 68% among females aged 64 years or less. The respective decreases for non-amenable natural causes of death were 24% and 29%. The rate of decline in mortality from amenable causes was similar for the two sexes. It was assumed that the decline in mortality from nonamenable causes reflects the joint influences of environmental, social, nutritional, and genetic factors and that the difference between this and the decline in mortality from amenable causes approximates to the true effect of the health services. Health services were estimated to account for 50% of the total decline in mortality from amenable causes for both sexes.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1994

[Adult mortality decline in Costa Rica].

"This paper examines the adult-mortality transition in Costa Rica and its determinants. The risk of dying declined by 80% for young adults and by 40% for old adults from 1920 to 1990. The fastest decline took place in the 1950s for young-adult ages and in the late 1980s for old-adult ages.... By 1990, about 40% of Costa Rican deaths are caused by accidents and violence at young-adult ages and by cardiovascular diseases at old ages. Infectious and nutritional-related conditions (especially respiratory tuberculosis and malaria) account for three-fourths of the adult-mortality decline between 1951 and 1971, but only for 30% since that year on." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Adult↗
PubMed1999

Explaining differential rates of mortality decline for Swedish men and women: a time-series analysis, 1945-1992.

The aim of this study is to identify social factors that could be related to differential rates of mortality decline for men and women in Sweden. The annual changes in fifteen indicators and their relationship with changes in absolute excess male mortality were analyzed by means of time series analysis for the period 1945-1992. Economic growth seems to have been more beneficial for women's survival than for that of men. A few labor market indicators (unemployment rate and the wage ratio men/women) may have had some influence on changes in excess male mortality as well. Consumption factors, such as alcohol consumption and cigarette consumption, have been important for changes in excess male mortality. Changes in excess male mortality have been particularly pronounced among 65-74 year olds, due to rapidly improved female survival in these age groups. I discuss the finding that there seem to be connections between, on the one hand, changes in general social factors such as economic growth and labor market factors, and perhaps urbanization and alcohol and cigarette consumption on the other. I therefore suggest that gender-specific consumer behavior, seen as an outcome of gender-specific norm systems, is one mechanism which links changes in general social factors to changes in excess male mortality.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Prevention, declining mortality rates, and the cost of Medicare.

It is commonly assumed that with declining adult mortality rates, the elderly population will continue to increase and become a major fiscal problem for the Medicare program. However, this population, like other age groups, consists of a small number of frequent medical-care users and a large number of low-frequency users. If the decline in mortality rates occurs as a result of primary and secondary prevention efforts rather than tertiary interventions, a 26.4 percent increase in the population 65 years of age and older could result in only a 19.4 percent increase in gross Medicare expenditures and a slight decline in net Medicare expenditures.

Aged↗
PubMed2003

Why is breast-cancer mortality declining?

Population statistics indicate that age-adjusted breast-cancer mortality rates began to decline during the early 1990s in many developed countries. For several decades before 1990, breast-cancer mortality rates in these countries had been either stable or increasing. Many investigators attribute the decline in mortality to mammography screening. However, randomised prospective trials indicate that there is a delay of 10 years before the effect of such screening can be seen in mortality statistics. In many developed countries, screening programmes were launched in the late 1980s and early 1990s, so the sudden decline in breast-cancer mortality in the early 1990s was much too soon to be attributable to mammography screening. In this review, we argue that although some of the decline in breast-cancer mortality is due to a reduction in breast-cancer risk, most of it can probably be attributed to adjuvant systemic therapy and the earlier detection of palpable tumours. We also explain why advances in the treatment of breast cancer might be outpacing the value of mammography screening. Since age-adjusted mortality rates are the most basic measure of progress in the treatment of breast cancer, we suggest that careful scrutiny of recent trends in breast-cancer mortality may provide important insights into the effectiveness of novel strategies for diagnosis and treatment.

Breast Neoplasms↗
PubMed2006

Increasing rates of dementia at time of declining mortality from stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke is associated with increased risk of dementia. There has been a decline in mortality from stroke among persons 65 and over in recent decades in the US. It is not clear, however, how this process has affected incidence of various dementias. METHODS: We evaluated over time changes in stroke admission rates and survival, and in rates of newly diagnosed dementias (Alzheimer disease, senile, and cerebrovascular disease-related dementia) in persons with and without stroke aged 65 and over, using Medicare inpatient records, 1984 to 2001, linked to the National Long-Term Care Survey (about 380,000 person-years totally). RESULTS: Age-adjusted stroke rate increased from 0.0066 to 0.008 (P=0.08) from 1984-1990 to 1991-2001. One-year survival after stroke improved from 53% in 1984 to 1990 to 65% in 1991 to 1996 (P<0.0001). Age-standardized rate of diagnosed dementias increased from 0.0062 in 1984 to 1990 to 0.0095 in 1991 to 2000 (P=0.001). Among stroke patients the rate rose from 0.043 to 0.080. The relative increase in risk was largest for cerebrovascular disease-related dementia (3.68). For senile dementia, the increase was small and not significant. Rates of dementia among persons without stroke rose mainly attributable to Alzheimer disease. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality from stroke declined mainly because of declining stroke case-fatality. In parallel, the rate of diagnosed dementia increased. The increase was larger for persons with stroke compared with stroke-free population. Improved survival from stroke may contribute to this trend. Other contributing factors may include better diagnostics, an increased propensity to make the diagnosis, and increasing dementia risk attributable to factors other than stroke.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1998

Explaining the modern mortality decline: what can we learn from sea voyages.

During the past two decades, scholars have attempted to quanify the mortality at sea of a large number of seaborne populations. We now have estimates of death rates associated with over 13,000 voyages between 1497 and the First World War. These include voyages of Portuguese and Dutch travellers to Asian destinations; African slaves, European convicts, and free emigrants to the Americas; British convicts to Australia; British government-assisted emigrants to South Africa and Australia; and African, Indian, Chinese, and Pacific Islander indentured labourers to various destinations in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Ocean regions. Whereas the death rate on slave voyages did not decline over time, the death rate of young adults and older children on non-slave voyages plummeted in the early-to-middle nineteenth century, preceding the modern mortality decline on land. Yet, the infant death rate of babies who embarked, or who were born at sea, although steadily declining, remained very much higher than infant mortality on land. The reduction in infant maritime mortality, which lagged well behind that of voyaging adults and children, thus mirrors the difficulty in reducing infant death rates on land. This paper surveys the recent literature on mortality at sea, drawing implications for our understanding of the modern mortality decline on land.

Emigration and Immigration↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Declining mortality in coronary heart disease.

Since 1968, there has been a dramatic, unprecedented decline in mortality from cardiovascular disease in the United States, especially from coronary heart disease and stroke. The decline has now been confirmed as real and has been observed in all age, sex, and race groups. Possible causes of the decline in coronary heart disease mortality include the development of the concept of acute coronary care, new drugs, sophisticated surgical techniques such as coronary artery bypass, noninvasive diagnostic methods for earlier disease detection, and the identification of specific cardiovascular risk factors. The decline has been temporally related to risk factor awareness and modification (cigarette smoking cessation, hypertension control, diet change and reduction in cholesterol). Thus, both primary prevention through lifestyle changes and improved treatment regimes have played a role in the decline.

Cholesterol↗