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Rheumatic complaints in Tokelau. I. Migrants resident in New Zealand. The Tokelau Island migrant study.

The three Tokelau atolls are 8 degrees south of the equator. In 1966 the islands were involved in a severe hurricane which drew attention to overcrowding and led to resettlement of more than half the population in New Zealand. One thousand three hundred and eighty one migrants over 15 years old were examined in New Zealand in 1980 and 1981 for rheumatic complaints as part of a continuing assessment. Clinical criteria for osteoarthritis (COA), including crepitus in any joint and in the knee, showed an increase in prevalence with age and weight in both sexes. Partial correlation coefficient analysis showed an association of the number of affected joints or the severity of knee COA (COAK) with both age and weight. Stepwise regression showed that age was the best predictor of both COA and COAK scores. Weight had predictive value only for COAK and only in women. Using the tracking method, previous high and/or increasing weight was related to COAK observed at this assessment. Heberden nodes increased with age and were more prevalent in women but were not associated with weight. Low back, dorsal and neck pain showed no association with age or sex. Low back pain was associated with weight. Joint pain following injury occurred in 15.4% of men. Gout, more common in men, was the only frequent inflammatory arthritis found. Two definite cases of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) were identified and four had criteria 1 and 2 for the New York criteria.

Adolescent↗

Analysis of interval-censored data from circular migrant and non-migrant sexual partnerships using the EM algorithm.

In epidemiological studies where subjects are seen periodically on follow-up visits, interval-censored data occur naturally. The exact time the change of state (such as HIV seroconversion) occurs is not known exactly, only that it occurred sometime within a specific time interval. Methods of estimation for interval-censored data are readily available when data are independent. However, methods for correlated interval-censored data are not well developed. This paper considers an approach for estimating the parameters when data are interval-censored and correlated within sexual partnerships. We consider the exact event times for interval-censored observations as unobserved data, only known to be between two time points. Dependency induced by sexual partnerships is modelled as frailties assuming a gamma distribution for frailties and an exponential distribution on the time to infection. This formulation facilitates application of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Maximization process maximizes the standard survival frailty model. Results show high degree of heterogeneity between sexual partnerships. Intervention strategies aimed at combating the spread of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STI)s should treat sexual partnerships as social units and fully incorporate the effects of migration in their strategies.

Adolescent↗