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PubMed2006

Assessing performance of prediction rules in machine learning.

INTRODUCTION: An important goal in machine learning is to assess the degree to which prediction rules are robust and replicable, since these rules are used for decision making and for planning follow-up studies. This requires an estimate of a prediction rule's true error rate, a statistic that can be estimated by resampling data. However, there are many possible approaches depending upon whether we draw observations with or without replacement, or sample once, repeatedly, or not at all, and the pros and cons of each are often unclear. This study illustrates and compares different methods for estimating true error with the aim of providing practical guidance to users of machine learning techniques. METHODS: We conducted Monte Carlo simulation studies using four different error estimators: bootstrap, split sample, resubstitution and a direct estimate of true error. Here, 'split sample' refers to a single random partition of the data into a pair of training and test samples, a popular scheme. We used stochastic gradient boosting as a learning algorithm, and considered data from two studies for which the underlying data mechanism was known to be complex: a library of 6000 tripeptide substrates collected for analysis of proteasome inhibition as part of anticancer drug design, and a cardiovascular study involving 600 subjects receiving antiplatelet treatment for acute coronary syndrome. RESULTS: There were important differences in the performance of the various error estimators examined. Error estimators for split sample and resubstitution, while being the most transparent in action and the simplest to apply, did not quantify the performance of prediction rules as accurately as the bootstrap. This was true for both types of study data, despite their highly different nature. CONCLUSIONS: The robustness and reliability of decisions based on analysis of genomics data could, in many cases, be improved by following best practices for prediction error estimation. For this, techniques such as bootstrap should be considered.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2005

Transductive machine learning for reliable medical diagnostics.

In the past decades Machine Learning tools have been successfully used in several medical diagnostic problems. While they often significantly outperform expert physicians (in terms of diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity), they are mostly not being used in practice. One reason for this is that it is difficult to obtain an unbiased estimation of diagnose's reliability. We discuss how reliability of diagnoses is assessed in medical decision making and propose a general framework for reliability estimation in Machine Learning, based on transductive inference. We compare our approach with a usual (Machine Learning) probabilistic approach as well as with classical stepwise diagnostic process where reliability of diagnose is presented as its posttest probability. The proposed transductive approach is evaluated on several medical data sets from the UCI (University of California, Irvine) repository as well as on a practical problem of clinical diagnosis of the coronary artery disease. In all cases significant improvements over existing techniques are achieved.

Adult↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Comparisons of likelihood and machine learning methods of individual classification.

Classification methods used in machine learning (e.g., artificial neural networks, decision trees, and k-nearest neighbor clustering) are rarely used with population genetic data. We compare different nonparametric machine learning techniques with parametric likelihood estimations commonly employed in population genetics for purposes of assigning individuals to their population of origin ("assignment tests"). Classifier accuracy was compared across simulated data sets representing different levels of population differentiation (low and high F(ST)), number of loci surveyed (5 and 10), and allelic diversity (average of three or eight alleles per locus). Empirical data for the lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) exhibiting levels of population differentiation comparable to those used in simulations were examined to further evaluate and compare classification methods. Classification error rates associated with artificial neural networks and likelihood estimators were lower for simulated data sets compared to k-nearest neighbor and decision tree classifiers over the entire range of parameters considered. Artificial neural networks only marginally outperformed the likelihood method for simulated data (0-2.8% lower error rates). The relative performance of each machine learning classifier improved relative likelihood estimators for empirical data sets, suggesting an ability to "learn" and utilize properties of empirical genotypic arrays intrinsic to each population. Likelihood-based estimation methods provide a more accessible option for reliable assignment of individuals to the population of origin due to the intricacies in development and evaluation of artificial neural networks.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Machine learning for survival analysis: a case study on recurrence of prostate cancer.

Machine learning techniques have recently received considerable attention, especially when used for the construction of prediction models from data. Despite their potential advantages over standard statistical methods, like their ability to model non-linear relationships and construct symbolic and interpretable models, their applications to survival analysis are at best rare, primarily because of the difficulty to appropriately handle censored data. In this paper we propose a schema that enables the use of classification methods--including machine learning classifiers--for survival analysis. To appropriately consider the follow-up time and censoring, we propose a technique that, for the patients for which the event did not occur and have short follow-up times, estimates their probability of event and assigns them a distribution of outcome accordingly. Since most machine learning techniques do not deal with outcome distributions, the schema is implemented using weighted examples. To show the utility of the proposed technique, we investigate a particular problem of building prognostic models for prostate cancer recurrence, where the sole prediction of the probability of event (and not its probability dependency on time) is of interest. A case study on preoperative and postoperative prostate cancer recurrence prediction shows that by incorporating this weighting technique the machine learning tools stand beside modern statistical methods and may, by inducing symbolic recurrence models, provide further insight to relationships within the modeled data.

Artificial Intelligence↗
PubMed2025

Modeling unknowns: A vision for uncertainty-aware machine learning in healthcare.

The integration of machine learning (ML) into healthcare is accelerating, driven by the proliferation of biomedical data and the promise of data-driven clinical support. A key challenge in this context is managing the pervasive uncertainty inherent in medical reasoning and decision-making. Despite its recognized importance, uncertainty is often underrepresented in the design and evaluation of clinical AI systems. Here we report an editorial overview of a special issue dedicated to uncertainty modeling in medical AI, which gathers theoretical, methodological, and practical contributions addressing this critical gap. Across these works, authors reveal that fewer than 4% of studies address uncertainty explicitly, and propose alternative design principles-such as optimizing for clinical net benefit or embedding explainability with confidence estimates. Notable contributions include the RelAI system for real-time prediction reliability, empirical findings on how uncertainty communication shapes clinical interpretation, and benchmarks for out-of-distribution detection in tabular data. Furthermore, this issue highlights the use of causal reasoning and anomaly detection to enhance system robustness and accountability. Together, these studies argue that representing, communicating, and operationalizing uncertainty are essential not only for clinical safety but also for building trust in AI-driven care. This special issue thus repositions uncertainty from a limitation to a foundational asset in the responsible deployment of ML in healthcare.

Machine Learning↗
PubMed2026

Machine learning to differentiate colonization from infection in multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria: implications for further research.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Machine learning has emerged as a promising tool to support antimicrobial decision-making in infectious diseases. In colonized patients, distinguishing multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (MDR-GNB) colonization from true infection remains a major clinical challenge, as both delayed appropriate therapy in severe infections and unnecessary broad-spectrum antimicrobial use may adversely affect patient outcomes and antimicrobial stewardship. This review discusses the current evidence on machine learning models for predicting or detecting MDR-GNB infection in colonized patients, highlights key methodological limitations of the available literature, and outlines future research priorities. RECENT FINDINGS: Current evidence specifically evaluating machine learning models beyond logistic regression in MDR-GNB-colonized patients remains limited. Overall, while machine learning may achieve encouraging discriminatory performance, important methodological limitations persist. Most notably, predictive models are frequently developed in heterogeneous populations that do not reflect the clinically relevant populations of colonized patients in which treatment decisions are made. Furthermore, improvements in predictive performance remain modest, possibly reflecting limited sample sizes and data granularity rather than insufficient algorithmic complexity. In our opinion, future advances could require multicenter datasets enriched with longitudinal clinical, microbiological, and genomic information, together with automated feature extraction from electronic health records. SUMMARY: The main challenge for machine learning in predicting MDR-GNB infection in colonized patients may lie not in developing increasingly sophisticated algorithms, but in generating clinically representative datasets and adopting rigorous methodological standards for model development, validation, calibration, and implementation. Future research should prioritize clinically meaningful target populations and demonstrate improvements in patient outcomes and antimicrobial stewardship beyond conventional measures of predictive performance.

antimicrobial resistance↗
PubMed2006

A comparison of citation metrics to machine learning filters for the identification of high quality MEDLINE documents.

OBJECTIVE: The present study explores the discriminatory performance of existing and novel gold-standard-specific machine learning (GSS-ML) focused filter models (i.e., models built specifically for a retrieval task and a gold standard against which they are evaluated) and compares their performance to citation count and impact factors, and non-specific machine learning (NS-ML) models (i.e., models built for a different task and/or different gold standard). DESIGN: Three gold standard corpora were constructed using the SSOAB bibliography, the ACPJ-cited treatment articles, and the ACPJ-cited etiology articles. Citation counts and impact factors were obtained for each article. Support vector machine models were used to classify the articles using combinations of content, impact factors, and citation counts as predictors. MEASUREMENTS: Discriminatory performance was estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and n-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: For all three gold standards and tasks, GSS-ML filters outperformed citation count, impact factors, and NS-ML filters. Combinations of content with impact factor or citation count produced no or negligible improvements to the GSS machine learning filters. CONCLUSIONS: These experiments provide evidence that when building information retrieval filters focused on a retrieval task and corresponding gold standard, the filter models have to be built specifically for this task and gold standard. Under those conditions, machine learning filters outperform standard citation metrics. Furthermore, citation counts and impact factors add marginal value to discriminatory performance. Previous research that claimed better performance of citation metrics than machine learning in one of the corpora examined here is attributed to using machine learning filters built for a different gold standard and task.

Area Under Curve↗
PubMed2026

Machine learning vs. traditional methods for predicting postoperative cardiac complications after non-cardiac surgery: a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Accurate prediction of peri-operative cardiac complications is critical to optimise pre-operative decision-making. Traditional risk prediction scores, such as the Revised Cardiac Risk Index, show only modest discrimination. Machine learning can model complex, non-linear relationships but their predictive performance compared with traditional scores remains unclear. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis. The primary outcome was postoperative adverse cardiac events following non-cardiac surgery. Prediction models were assessed relative to the Revised Cardiac Risk Index. As many studies evaluated multiple versions of each model type, the highest performing ('best version') and lowest performing ('worst version') results were analysed. Models were ranked using the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA). RESULTS: Thirteen studies evaluating 54 models and 927,113 patients were included. Machine learning approaches generally outperformed traditional risk scores. Automated machine learning ranked highest (SUCRA 96.6) showed the greatest improvement in the best version analysis (mean difference (MD) 0.28 (95%CrI 0.16-0.40)) and remained superior in the sensitivity analysis (MD 0.30 (95%CrI 0.14-0.45)). Gradient boosting models showed superior performance over the Revised Cardiac Risk Index across analysis (best version: MD 0.20 (95%CrI 0.14-0.26), worst version: MD 0.18 (95%CrI 0.12-0.25), SUCRA 82.4). The Gupta Perioperative Risk for Myocardial Infarction or Cardiac Arrest score outperformed the Revised Cardiac Risk Index in the best version analysis (MD 0.16 (95%CrI 0.01-0.32)). Between-study heterogeneity was low. None of the included studies externally validated their machine learning models and only six were judged to be at low risk of bias. DISCUSSION: Most machine learning models showed better discrimination than traditional risk scores, with automated machine learning and gradient boosting models ranking highest. However, study quality, calibration reporting and absence of external validation limit immediate clinical adoption. Prospective, multicentre evaluation is required before integration of these models into peri-operative practice.

Humans↗
PubMed2005

Optical coherence tomography machine learning classifiers for glaucoma detection: a preliminary study.

PURPOSE: Machine-learning classifiers are trained computerized systems with the ability to detect the relationship between multiple input parameters and a diagnosis. The present study investigated whether the use of machine-learning classifiers improves optical coherence tomography (OCT) glaucoma detection. METHODS: Forty-seven patients with glaucoma (47 eyes) and 42 healthy subjects (42 eyes) were included in this cross-sectional study. Of the glaucoma patients, 27 had early disease (visual field mean deviation [MD] > or = -6 dB) and 20 had advanced glaucoma (MD < -6 dB). Machine-learning classifiers were trained to discriminate between glaucomatous and healthy eyes using parameters derived from OCT output. The classifiers were trained with all 38 parameters as well as with only 8 parameters that correlated best with the visual field MD. Five classifiers were tested: linear discriminant analysis, support vector machine, recursive partitioning and regression tree, generalized linear model, and generalized additive model. For the last two classifiers, a backward feature selection was used to find the minimal number of parameters that resulted in the best and most simple prediction. The cross-validated receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and accuracies were calculated. RESULTS: The largest area under the ROC curve (AROC) for glaucoma detection was achieved with the support vector machine using eight parameters (0.981). The sensitivity at 80% and 95% specificity was 97.9% and 92.5%, respectively. This classifier also performed best when judged by cross-validated accuracy (0.966). The best classification between early glaucoma and advanced glaucoma was obtained with the generalized additive model using only three parameters (AROC = 0.854). CONCLUSIONS: Automated machine classifiers of OCT data might be useful for enhancing the utility of this technology for detecting glaucomatous abnormality.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Machine learning for detection and diagnosis of disease.

Machine learning offers a principled approach for developing sophisticated, automatic, and objective algorithms for analysis of high-dimensional and multimodal biomedical data. This review focuses on several advances in the state of the art that have shown promise in improving detection, diagnosis, and therapeutic monitoring of disease. Key in the advancement has been the development of a more in-depth understanding and theoretical analysis of critical issues related to algorithmic construction and learning theory. These include trade-offs for maximizing generalization performance, use of physically realistic constraints, and incorporation of prior knowledge and uncertainty. The review describes recent developments in machine learning, focusing on supervised and unsupervised linear methods and Bayesian inference, which have made significant impacts in the detection and diagnosis of disease in biomedicine. We describe the different methodologies and, for each, provide examples of their application to specific domains in biomedical diagnostics.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2006

Acoustic detection and classification of Microchiroptera using machine learning: lessons learned from automatic speech recognition.

Current automatic acoustic detection and classification of microchiroptera utilize global features of individual calls (i.e., duration, bandwidth, frequency extrema), an approach that stems from expert knowledge of call sonograms. This approach parallels the acoustic phonetic paradigm of human automatic speech recognition (ASR), which relied on expert knowledge to account for variations in canonical linguistic units. ASR research eventually shifted from acoustic phonetics to machine learning, primarily because of the superior ability of machine learning to account for signal variation. To compare machine learning with conventional methods of detection and classification, nearly 3000 search-phase calls were hand labeled from recordings of five species: Pipistrellus bodenheimeri, Molossus molossus, Lasiurus borealis, L. cinereus semotus, and Tadarida brasiliensis. The hand labels were used to train two machine learning models: a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) for detection and classification and a hidden Markov model (HMM) for classification. The GMM detector produced 4% error compared to 32% error for a baseline broadband energy detector, while the GMM and HMM classifiers produced errors of 0.6 +/- 0.2% compared to 16.9 +/- 1.1% error for a baseline discriminant function analysis classifier. The experiments showed that machine learning algorithms produced errors an order of magnitude smaller than those for conventional methods.

Acoustics↗
PubMed2001

Algebraic analysis for nonidentifiable learning machines.

This article clarifies the relation between the learning curve and the algebraic geometrical structure of an unidentifiable learning machine such as a multilayer neural network whose true parameter set is an analytic set with singular points. By using a concept in algebraic analysis, we rigorously prove that the Bayesian stochastic complexity or the free energy is asymptotically equal to lambda(1) log n - (m(1) - 1) log log n + constant, where n is the number of training samples and lambda(1) and m(1) are the rational number and the natural number, which are determined as the birational invariant values of the singularities in the parameter space. Also we show an algorithm to calculate lambda(1) and m(1) based on the resolution of singularities in algebraic geometry. In regular statistical models, 2lambda(1) is equal to the number of parameters and m(1) = 1, whereas in nonregular models, such as multilayer networks, 2lambda(1) is not larger than the number of parameters and m(1) > or = 1. Since the increase of the stochastic complexity is equal to the learning curve or the generalization error, the nonidentifiable learning machines are better models than the regular ones if Bayesian ensemble learning is applied.

Algorithms↗
PubMed1994

Application of machine learning to structural molecular biology.

A technique of machine learning, inductive logic programming implemented in the program GOLEM, has been applied to three problems in structural molecular biology. These problems are: the prediction of protein secondary structure; the identification of rules governing the arrangement of beta-sheets strands in the tertiary folding of proteins; and the modelling of a quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) of a series of drugs. For secondary structure prediction and the QSAR, GOLEM yielded predictions comparable with contemporary approaches including neural networks. Rules for beta-strand arrangement are derived and it is planned to contrast their accuracy with those obtained by human inspection. In all three studies GOLEM discovered rules that provided insight into the stereochemistry of the system. We conclude machine learning used together with human intervention will provide a powerful tool to discover patterns in biological sequences and structures.

Amino Acid Sequence↗
PubMed2026

Screening of core targets for Di(2-ethylhexyl) Phthalate-related gastric cancer based on machine learning, molecular docking, and SHAP analysis.

PURPOSE: Given the existing uncertainties regarding the link between Di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) exposure and gastric cancer (GC) progression, this study aimed to clarify their association, identify the toxic targets of DEHP, and elucidate the underlying molecular mechanisms. METHODS: Multiple integrated approaches were employed, including Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) data analysis, network toxicology, molecular docking, and machine learning. STRING and Cytoscape tools were utilized to identify key targets, while Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) enrichment analyses were performed to explore the functional enrichment of intersecting targets. Machine learning and SHAP analysis were applied to screen core targets in GC. Molecular docking was performed to evaluate the binding affinity of DEHP toward core targets, and 200 ns molecular dynamics simulations were further conducted for representative complexes to validate their dynamic stability. RESULTS: A total of 18 key targets were identified using STRING and Cytoscape. GO and KEGG enrichment analyses demonstrated that these intersecting targets were primarily enriched in the extracellular region, as well as the Calcium signaling pathway and cAMP signaling pathway. Through machine learning analyses, 7 key genes (ADRB2, ESRRG, GRIA4, IL13RA2, NR3C2, PLA2G1B, and SULT2A1) were identified as core targets in GC through machine learning analyses. Molecular docking simulations revealed strong binding specificity between DEHP and the target proteins. Among them, NR3C2 and ADRB2 exhibited relatively high predictive importance in the machine learning models. DEHP showed favorable binding affinity toward these core targets, and molecular dynamics simulations further confirmed that ADRB2-DEHP and NR3C2-DEHP complexes maintained stable conformations throughout the simulation. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings identified GC associated genes that were computationally predicted as potential targets of DEHP. These results indicated structural compatibility between DEHP and its target proteins but did not prove that DEHP exposure accounts for the gene expression changes in GC.

Molecular Docking Simulation↗
PubMed2006

[Non-linear registration of MR brain images integrated with machine learning].

This paper presents a machine learning method to select best geometric features for deformable brain registration for each brain location. By incorporating those learned best attribute vector into the framework of HAMMER registration algorithm, The accuracy has increased by about 10% in estimating the simulated deformation fields. At the same time, on real MR brain images, we have found a great deal of improvement of registration in cortical regions.

Algorithms↗
PubMed1993

Reconstructing muscle activation during normal walking: a comparison of symbolic and connectionist machine learning techniques.

One symbolic (rule-based inductive learning) and one connectionist (neural network) machine learning technique were used to reconstruct muscle activation patterns from kinematic data measured during normal human walking at several speeds. The activation patterns (or desired outputs) consisted of surface electromyographic (EMG) signals from the semitendinosus and vastus medialis muscles. The inputs consisted of flexion and extension angles measured at the hip and knee of the ipsilateral leg, their first and second derivatives, and bilateral foot contact information. The training set consisted of data from six trials, at two different speeds. The testing set consisted of data from two additional trials (one at each speed), which were not in the training set. It was possible to reconstruct the muscular activation at both speeds using both techniques. Timing of the reconstructed signals was accurate. The integrated value of the activation bursts was less accurate. The neural network gave a continuous output, whereas the rule-based inductive learning rule tree gave a quantised activation level. The advantage of rule-based inductive learning was that the rules used were both explicit and comprehensible, whilst the rules used by the neural network were implicit within its structure and not easily comprehended. The neural network was able to reconstruct the activation patterns of both muscles from one network, whereas two separate rule sets were needed for the rule-based technique. It is concluded that machine learning techniques, in comparison to explicit inverse muscular skeletal models, show good promise in modelling nearly cyclic movements such as locomotion at varying walking speeds.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Algorithms↗
PubMed2002

Comparison of machine learning and traditional classifiers in glaucoma diagnosis.

Glaucoma is a progressive optic neuropathy with characteristic structural changes in the optic nerve head reflected in the visual field. The visual-field sensitivity test is commonly used in a clinical setting to evaluate glaucoma. Standard automated perimetry (SAP) is a common computerized visual-field test whose output is amenable to machine learning. We compared the performance of a number of machine learning algorithms with STATPAC indexes mean deviation, pattern standard deviation, and corrected pattern standard deviation. The machine learning algorithms studied included multilayer perceptron (MLP), support vector machine (SVM), and linear (LDA) and quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), Parzen window, mixture of Gaussian (MOG), and mixture of generalized Gaussian (MGG). MLP and SVM are classifiers that work directly on the decision boundary and fall under the discriminative paradigm. Generative classifiers, which first model the data probability density and then perform classification via Bayes' rule, usually give deeper insight into the structure of the data space. We have applied MOG, MGG, LDA, QDA, and Parzen window to the classification of glaucoma from SAP. Performance of the various classifiers was compared by the areas under their receiver operating characteristic curves and by sensitivities (true-positive rates) at chosen specificities (true-negative rates). The machine-learning-type classifiers showed improved performance over the best indexes from STATPAC. Forward-selection and backward-elimination methodology further improved the classification rate and also has the potential to reduce testing time by diminishing the number of visual-field location measurements.

Artificial Intelligence↗
PubMed2025

Automated Machine Learning Tools to Build Regression Models for Schizosaccharomyces pombe Omics Data.

Machine learning is a powerful tool for analyzing biological data and making useful predictions. The surge of biological data from high-throughput omics technologies has raised the need for modeling approaches capable of tackling such amounts of data, which is pivotal to understanding the nature of complex molecular systems. Here, we show how to construct a simple model using automated machine learning (AutoML) to predict protein abundance in Schizosaccharomyces pombe, using data obtained from codon usage bias and quantitative proteomics.

Machine Learning↗