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Results for “Indirect Estimation Technics”

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PubMed1993

[Maternal mortality in Peru].

The author investigates maternal mortality in Peru using data from the second Demographic and Family Health Survey (ENDES-II) carried out in 1991-1992. "The inclusion of a module about adult mortality in the questionnaire of the ENDES II [made it possible] to estimate maternal mortality using a set of questions about the sisters of the women interviewed. The study highlights the inverse relation between levels of maternal mortality and education, [especially] the relevance of formal education for decreasing the incidence of maternal mortality." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Americas↗
PubMed1995

[Latin America, land of emigration: the process approach to net migration].

"In this paper, the author deals with migration in America since 1950, focusing on the emigration process from Latin America. For this purpose, the analysis is based upon net migration rates that can be obtained by indirect methods. At the beginning, data are provided by continents, then the analysis focuses on 25 Latin American countries." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)

Americas↗
PubMed1996

Child and maternal mortality during a period of conflict in Beira City, Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Child mortality rates have been declining in most developing countries. We studied child and maternal mortality risk factors for child mortality in Beira city in July 1993, after a decade of conflict in Mozambique. METHODS: A community-based cluster sample survey of 4609 women of childbearing age was conducted. Indirect techniques were used to estimate child mortality ('children ever born' method and Preceding Birth Techniques (PBT) and maternal mortality (sisterhood method). Deaths among the most recent born child, born since July 1990, were classified as cases (n = 106), and two controls, matched by age and cluster, were selected per case. RESULTS: Indirect estimates of the probability of dying from birth to age 5 (deaths before age 5 years, (5)q(0) per 1000) decreased from 246 in 1977/8 to 212 in 1988/9. The PBT estimate of 1990/91 was 154 (95 percent confidence interval [CI]: 124-184), but recent deaths may have been underreported. Lack of beds in the household (odds ratio [OR] = 2.0, 95 percent CI: 1.1-3.8), absence of the father (OR = 2.4, 95 percent CI : 1.2-4.8), low paternal educational level (OR = 2.1, 95 percent CI: 0.8-5.4), young maternal age (OR = 2.0, 95 percent CI: 1.0-3.7), self-reported maternal illness (OR = 2.4, 95 percent CI : 1.2-4.9), and home delivery of the child (OR = 2.3, 95 percent CI : 1.2-4.5) were associated with increased mortality, but the sensitivity of risk factors was low. Estimated maternal mortality was 410/100 000 live births with a reference date of 1982. CONCLUSIONS: Child mortality decreased slowly over the 1980s in Beira despite poor living conditions caused by the indirect effects of the war. Coverage of health services increased over this period. The appropriateness of a risk approach to maternal-child-health care needs further evaluation.

Adult↗
PubMed1987

Intercensal change and the indirect estimation of mortality: the case of Pakistan.

"In a country such as Pakistan, where there is no vital registration system, estimating mortality levels and trends can be difficult. One way we can learn about mortality is to use indirect estimation techniques on census age distributions. This paper applies some of these techniques and evaluates the quality of the census data in the process." Problems of relative coverage in the 1972 and 1981 censuses and changes in age-reporting preferences are discussed. Comments by Mohammad Afzal are included (pp. 583-5).

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1987

[The registration of deaths in Venezuela: an evaluation of coverage].

"This paper presents six indirect techniques for estimating the degree of death coverage as applied to vital statistics information in Venezuela between 1960 and 1982, collected by two public institutions, namely, the 'Oficina Central de Estadistica e Informatica' (OCEI) and the Ministry of Health and Social Assistance (MSAS).... The results show remarkable improvements in the death registry coverage for both institutions, that amount to 97 or 98 per cent at the beginning of the 80's. Nevertheless, great differences can be observed between them regarding both structure and volume of deaths by sex and age." Among the problems discussed are the impact of immigration and errors in age reporting. (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Age Factors↗
PubMed1992

The validation of interviews for estimating morbidity.

Health interview surveys have been widely used to measure morbidity in developing countries, particularly for infectious diseases. Structured questionnaires using algorithms which derive sign/symptom-based diagnoses seem to be the most reliable but there have been few studies to validate them. The purpose of validation is to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of brief algorithms (combinations of signs/symptoms) which can then be used for the rapid assessment of community health problems. Validation requires a comparison with an external standard such as physician or serological diagnoses. There are several potential pitfalls in assessing validity, such as selection bias, differences in populations and the pattern of diseases in study populations compared to the community. Validation studies conducted in the community may overcome bias caused by case selection. Health centre derived estimates can be adjusted and applied to the community with caution. Further study is needed to validate algorithms for important diseases in different cultural settings. Community-based studies need to be conducted, and the utility of derived algorithms for tracking disease frequency explored further.

Algorithms↗
PubMed1989

Estimation of adult male mortality in Turkey by the widowhood method.

"In this paper, the [widowhood] method is applied to Turkish data to estimate adult male mortality. First, the method and its assumptions are briefly discussed. Secondly, the data source and its major characteristics are described and the method is applied; the resulting mortality measures estimated with the method are compared with findings from other sources, and the reliability of the results, the applicability of the method to the Turkish case, and possible biases risked with the application of the method are elaborated in the final section of the paper." (SUMMARY IN TUR)

Asia↗
PubMed1995

Age patterns of child mortality in the developing world.

"This article uses the data from [a] United Nations database, supplemented in a few cases with information from local studies thought to be of particular accuracy, to examine age patterns of child mortality [in developing countries]. The focus is on the split between infant mortality--that is, mortality before the first birthday, and child mortality, between the exact ages of 1 and 5 years.... The underlying objective of the article is to identify regional patterns, both because the epidemiology and social behaviours underlying child mortality are likely to be similar across regions and because such identified patterns could then be used to guide the selection of a model life-table family when using indirect estimation methods in countries of a region."

Cross-Cultural Comparison↗
PubMed1998

Direct and indirect estimates of HIV-1 incidence in a high-prevalence population.

While the worldwide AIDS epidemic continues to expand, directly measured incidence data are difficult to obtain. Methods to reliably estimate human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) incidence from more easily available data are particularly relevant in those parts of the world where prevalence is rising in heterosexually exposed populations. The authors set out to estimate HIV-1 incidence in a population of heterosexual sexually transmitted disease clinic attendees in Trinidad who had a known high prevalence of HIV-1 subtype B. Over the period 1987-1995, HIV-1 incidence estimates from serial cross-sectional studies of HIV-1 prevalence, passive follow-up of clinic recidivists, modeling of early markers of HIV-1 infection (p24 antigen screening), and a cohort study of seronegative genital ulcer disease cases were compared. Measuring incidence density in the genital ulcer disease cases directly gave the highest estimate, 6.9% per annum. Screening for the detection of early HIV-1 markers yielded an incidence of 5.0% per annum, while estimating incidence from serial cross-sectional prevalence data and clinic recidivists gave estimates of 3.5% and 4.5% per annum, respectively. These results were found to be internally consistent. Indirect estimates of incidence based on prevalence data can give accurate surrogates of true incidence. Within limitations, even crude measures of incidence are robust enough for health planning and evaluation purposes. For planning vaccine efficacy trials, consistent conservative estimates may be used to evaluate populations before targeting them for cohort studies.

Blotting, Western↗