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[Liver cirrhosis mortality in Mexico. II. Excess mortality and pulque consumption].

Over the years high cirrhosis mortality rates have been reported in Mexico City and in the surrounding states (Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Puebla and the State of Mexico); on the contrary, well defined areas, such as the northern states, have shown a considerably lower mortality rate. This situation may indicate that some factors such as the pattern of alcoholic intake and other environmental characteristics could explain this striking difference. To determine the role of alcohol, the availability and consumption of alcohol at regional and state level were compared with cirrhosis mortality rates. A high and statistically significant correlation was found with pulque availability and consumption (r = 72-92%, p less than 0.01) in all periods of time under examination. On the contrary, a statistically significant negative association was observed with beer consumption and a positive, but not significant correlation, with distilled alcoholic beverages. Infectious hepatitis incidence, prevalence of exclusive use of native languages (as an indirect index of ethnic background) and nutritional deficiencies were also studied as possible risk factors. Nutritional deficiencies and the prevalence of exclusive use of náhuatl and otomí languages were positively correlated. These results can be useful to conduct further epidemiological studies still needed to determine the etiologic role of pulque consumption as well as of the other risk factors. Nonetheless, the current data stress the need to implement public health programs to reduce alcohol consumption, especially pulque, and to minimize the impact of these risk factors in high mortality areas.

Alcohol Drinking↗
PubMed1995

Differential mortality in New York City (1988-1992). Part One: excess mortality among non-Hispanic blacks.

To determine the distribution of mortality for non-Hispanic blacks and non-Hispanic whites in New York City, death certificates issued in New York City during 1988 through 1992, and the relevant 1990 US census data for New York City, have been examined. Age-adjusted death rates for blacks and whites by gender and cause of death were computed based on the US population in 1940. Also, standard mortality ratios and excess mortality were calculated using the New York City mortality rate as reference. The results showed that New York City blacks had higher age-adjusted death rates than whites regardless of cause, including stroke, AIDS, homicide, and diabetes. The rate for New York City blacks was also higher than the US total for both genders. Using New York City mortality rates as a reference, more than 80% of excess deaths in blacks occurred before age 65. Injury/poisoning was the leading cause of excess death (20.1%) in black males, while in black females, cardiovascular disease was the largest single cause of excess deaths (24.8%). The higher death rates, especially premature death, of blacks in New York City are related to conditions such as violence, substance abuse, and AIDS, for which prevention rather than medical care is the more likely solution, as well as to cardiovascular diseases, where both prevention through behavioral change, and health and medical care, can influence outcome.

Black or African American↗
PubMed1991

Excess mortality in giant cell arteritis.

A 13-year departmental sample of 34 patients with definite (biopsy-verified) giant cell arteritis (GCA) was reviewed. The mortality of this material was compared to sex-, age- and time-specific death rates in the Danish population. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was 1.8 (95% confidence limits, 1.1-2.8). During the same period 146 patients with probable (not biopsied, but clinically diagnosed in the department) GCA and 85 cases of possible (diagnosed and treated before admission) GCA had been admitted to the department. Those two groups did not differ from the biopsy-verified group with respect to SMR, sex distribution or age. In the group of patients with department-diagnosed GCA (definite + probable = 180 patients), the 95% confidence interval for the SMR of the women included 1.0. In all other subgroups there was a significant excess mortality. Excess mortality has been found in two of seven previous studies on survival in GCA. The prevailing opinion that steroid-treated GCA does not affect the life expectancy of patients is probably not correct.

Adult↗
PubMed1999

Poverty, time, and place: variation in excess mortality across selected US populations, 1980-1990.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To describe variation in levels and causes of excess mortality and temporal mortality change among young and middle aged adults in a regionally diverse set of poor local populations in the USA. DESIGN: Using standard demographic techniques, death certificate and census data were analysed to make sex specific population level estimates of 1980 and 1990 death rates for residents of selected areas of concentrated poverty. For comparison, data for whites and blacks nationwide were analysed. SETTING: African American communities in Harlem, Central City Detroit, Chicago's south side, the Louisiana Delta, the Black Belt region of Alabama, and Eastern North Carolina. Non-Hispanic white communities in Cleveland, Detroit, Appalachian Kentucky, South Central Louisiana, Northeastern Alabama, and Western North Carolina. PARTICIPANTS: All black residents or all white residents of each specific community and in the nation, 1979-1981 and 1989-1991. MAIN RESULTS: Substantial variability exists in levels, trends, and causes of excess mortality in poor populations across localities. African American residents of urban/northern communities suffer extremely high and growing rates of excess mortality. Rural residents exhibit an important mortality advantage that widens over the decade. Homicide deaths contribute little to the rise in excess mortality, nor do AIDS deaths contribute outside of specific localities. Deaths attributable to circulatory disease are the leading cause of excess mortality in most locations. CONCLUSIONS: Important differences exist among persistently impoverished populations in the degree to which their poverty translates into excess mortality. Social epidemiological inquiry and health promotion initiatives should be attentive to local conditions. The severely disadvantageous mortality profiles experienced by urban African Americans relative to the rural poor and to national averages call for understanding.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

[A proposal for a new definition of excess mortality associated with influenza-epidemics and its estimation].

PURPOSE: As methods for estimating excess mortality associated with influenza-epidemic, the Serfling's cyclical regression model and the Kawai and Fukutomi model with seasonal indices have been proposed. Excess mortality under the old definition (i.e., the number of deaths actually recorded in excess of the number expected on the basis of past seasonal experience) covers the random error for that portion of variation regarded as due to chance. In addition, it disregards the range of random variation of mortality with the season. In this paper, we propose a new definition of excess mortality associated with influenza-epidemics and a new estimation method, considering these questions with the Kawai and Fukutomi method. RESULTS: The new definition of excess mortality and a novel method for its estimation were generated as follows. Factors bringing about variation in mortality in months with influenza-epidemics may be divided into two groups: 1. Influenza itself, 2. others (practically random variation). The range of variation of mortality due to the latter (normal range) can be estimated from the range for months in the absence of influenza-epidemics. Excess mortality is defined as death over the normal range. CONCLUSION: A new definition of excess mortality associated with influenza-epidemics and an estimation method are proposed. The new method considers variation in mortality in months in the absence of influenza-epidemics. Consequently, it provides reasonable estimates of excess mortality by separating the portion of random variation. Further, it is a characteristic that the proposed estimate can be used as a criterion of statistical significance test.

Epidemiologic Methods↗
PubMed2000

Additional risk factors influence excess mortality in heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia.

Life expectancy of patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia is decreased. Some untreated patients reach a normal life span and, therefore, additional risk factors and the type of mutation in the low-density lipoprotein (LDL) receptor gene are likely to influence the clinical outcome. We determined all cause mortality in kindreds with the disorder, who were untreated, in order to study (a) additional risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD) and (b) the types of LDL receptor gene mutations that may contribute to a poor prognosis. The mortality in all 855 first-degree relatives of 113 unrelated patients was compared to the Dutch population after standardisation for age, gender, and calendar period. Analyses restricted to affected relatives could have underestimated the mortality risk due to lack of information about severe cases, who died prematurely. Therefore, all first-degree relatives were analysed and as a result the standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) exhibit only 50% of the excess mortality from familial hypercholesterolaemia. We observed 190 deaths in 32048 person-years leading to an overall SMR of 1.34 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1. 16-1.55, P=0.001). High excess mortality occurred in males between age 40 and 54 (SMR 2.34, 95% CI 1.60-3.31, P<0.001). The excess mortality decreased during the last decades. This change of mortality over calendar time shows that additional risk factors modulate the mortality from the disorder. The SMR of 62 families referred with premature CAD was 1.62 (95% CI 1.32-1.93, P<0.001) and the SMR was 1.10 (95% CI 0.86-1.34, P=0.4) in 51 families without premature CAD. The mortality risk of kindreds with null alleles was similar to that of kindreds with other mutations. In conclusion, the burden of the untreated disorder occurred mainly among middle-aged males and was not influenced by the type of mutation. Additional risk factors increased excess mortality significantly and are highlighted by the presence of premature CAD among first-degree relatives. This underscores the need for active identification of all hypercholesterolaemic relatives of such patients.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

Excess mortality of suicide attempters.

BACKGROUND: Excessive mortality of suicide attempters has emerged from many follow-up studies. Completed suicide is the main cause of excess deaths, but the increased risk of deaths from other unnatural and natural causes is also of major public health concern. We lack follow-up studies of the different causes of death in cohorts of suicide attempters. The present study aimed to determine the mortality by suicide and other causes of death and to investigate risk factors. METHODS: This mean 5.3-year follow-up study was based on an unselected cohort of suicide attempts by both violent and non-violent methods, treated in hospitals in a well-defined urban catchment area in Helsinki. In total, 2782 patients aged 15 years and over admitted to the emergency rooms after suicide attempt between 1989 and 1996 were included in the follow-up analysis. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) for suicide, disease, accident, homicide, and undetermined death were calculated. RESULTS: Mortality from all causes was 15 times higher than that expected among men and nine times higher in women. SMRs in men were 5402 (95% CI 4339-6412) for suicide, 2480 (95% CI 925-4835) for homicide, and 11,139 (95% CI 6884-16,680) for undetermined cause, and for women 7682 (95% CI 5423-9585), 3763 (95% CI 52-5880) and 15,681 (95% CI 6894-22,294), respectively. Fifteen percent of all suicide attempters died during the average 5.3-year follow-up of the index attempt. Deaths from suicide accounted for 37% of all excess deaths in men and 44% in women. The mortality ratio was highest during the 1st follow-up year. The total number of lost years of life among the 413 suicide attempters who died during follow-up was 13,883. The risk factors for all causes of death were male sex, single, retirement, drug overdose as a method, an index attempt not involving alcohol, and a repeated attempt. CONCLUSION: A suicide attempt indicates a severe risk of premature death, and suicide is the main cause of excess deaths. However, it appears that concentrating efficient treatment only on the most suicidal patients could prevent no more than two of five premature deaths. More effort is therefore needed to prevent the excess mortality of suicide attempters by also addressing causes of death other than suicide.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

[Comparative study of new method and the Kawai and Fukutomi methods for estimating excess mortality associated with influenza-epidemics, based upon national vital statistics from 1975 to 1997].

PURPOSE: In our previous paper, we proposed a new definition and method for estimating excess mortality associated with influenza epidemics. In this paper, we applied this new method to the national vital statistics for 1975-1997 in Japan and compared the estimates obtained with those generated with the Kawai and Fukutomi method. METHODS: The monthly rates of death from all causes other than accidents (all-causes) and deaths attributed to pneumonia between 1975-1997 in Japan were analyzed using our new method. Epidemic periods were identified by examining the monthly rates for deaths attributable to influenza and associated excess mortality was then estimated for the 23-year period using defined criteria. Finally, the estimates obtained using the new method were compared with those obtained using the Kawai and Fukutomi method. RESULTS: 1) An increase in observed over expected mortality (i.e. excess mortality under the old definition) was detected even for months when influenza epidemics did not occur. 2) Estimates made using the Kawai and Fukutomi method were between 2,000-14,000 higher for deaths from all-causes and about 500-3,000 higher for those from pneumonia for each of the epidemic periods, compared to the relevant figures obtained using the new method. This finding provided a good indication of the methodological difference with the new method, which considers the range of random variation in seasonal mortality. Overall, the two methods differed in their estimates of which month had the highest excess monthly mortality rate for the year and which year had the highest excess annual mortality rate. CONCLUSIONS: By comparing estimates obtained using the new method and the Kawai and Fukutomi method, we demonstrated that the former provides a more reasonable estimate of excess mortality rates, regardless of whether or not the period in question occurred during an influenza epidemic.

Disease Outbreaks↗
PubMed2001

Excess mortality of girls in the Middle East in the 1970s and 1980s: patterns, correlates and gaps in research.

Comparative research on girls' excess mortality in the Middle East is rare. Estimates from the United Nations suggest that absolute excess mortality of girls was not universal in the 1970s and was uncommon by the 1980s. Compared with historical Northwest Europe at similar levels of boys' under-five mortality, however, girls' under-five mortality was high in both periods. Studies of the allocation of food and health care suggest that parents invested less and provided less curative care to girls than boys where girls' excess mortality was greatest. Urbanization and women's relative economic opportunity account for much of the variation in relative mortality. Unexplained excess mortality of girls in the Middle East compared with historical Northwest Europe may be attributable to differences in socio-cultural, political, and economic systems that influence the forms of discrimination exercised against girls; however, inadequate measurement of these variables limits their consideration in comparative research.

Child Care↗
PubMed2005

Influenza associated excess mortality in Germany, 1985-2001.

Influenza-associated excess mortality is widely used to assess the severity of influenza epidemics. In Germany, however, it is not yet established as a routine component of influenza surveillance. We therefore applied a simple method based on the annual distribution of monthly relative mortality (relative mortality distribution method, RMDM) to a time-series of German monthly all-cause mortality data from 1985-2001 to estimate influenza-associated excess mortality. Results were compared to those obtained by cyclical regression. Both methods distinguished stronger from milder influenza seasons, but RMDM gave the better fit (R2 = 0.80). For the years after reunification, i.e. 1990/91 through 2000/01, RMDM yielded an average of 6900 (conservative estimate) to 13,600 influenza-associated excess deaths per season (crude estimate). The most severe epidemics occurred during subtype A/H3N2 seasons. While German all-cause mortality declined over the study period, the number of excess deaths displayed an upward trend, coinciding with an increase of the proportion of the elderly population.

Journal Article↗
PubMed1998

Excess mortality in working age males in Poland: general patterns.

Since the second World War, excess mortality of males has been steadily growing in Poland. The aim of this paper was to analyze the basic relationships between excess male mortality and some social and economic factors, with special reference to both age and place of residence. Data published in Demographic Yearbooks and included in reports produced by the Government Population Council were used in the analysis. The excess male mortality is expressed in terms of male/female mortality ratio, and also in terms of the difference between the average female and male life expectancy. In the early 1990s the general male mortality rate in Poland was by 23% higher than the general female mortality rate, whereas in males at younger working age (20-44 years) mortality was three times higher, and in the older age (45-64 years) groups 2.7 times higher than the female mortality. Compared with the majority of European countries, Poland is characterised by high rates of excess male mortality, which points to a deteriorated health status of the population. At present, excess mortality of the working age males is much higher than in the 1960s and 1970s. Our analysis of the 1960-1994 trends revealed that the highest excess male mortality occurs in the 20-24 age group. Although recently a falling trend has been observed in the infant, juvenile and post working age groups, a continuous increase is noted in the working age population of Poland. Causes of death were also included in our analysis. Among circulatory diseases, the highest excess mortality was due to acute myocardial infarction (the risk of death from this disease was 8 times higher for males than for females). Accidents, injuries and poisoning constitute another leading group of causes responsible for excess mortality (6/1 male/female death risk ratio). The excess male mortality rates are higher in the rural than in the urban areas. The excess male mortality was also reflected in the indices of average life expectancy. In 1995, the average life expectancy was 67.6 years for males and 76.4 years for females. Thus, in Poland males live 8.6 years shorter than females on average. Increased excess mortality among the working age males, a considerable difference between male and female average life expectancy, disturbed demographic male/female balance, these are at least some of the reasons why further in depth studies of excess male mortality in Poland should continue.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Potentially preventable excess mortality among higher-order multiples.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the level of potentially preventable excess mortality achievable by avoiding the creation of higher-order multiple gestation with assisted reproductive technologies. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of multiple pregnancies delivered in the United States between 1995 and 1997 involving 304,466 twins, 16,068 triplets, 1448 quadruplets, and 180 quintuplets. We used the generalized estimating equation framework to compute adjusted relative risks for combined perinatal and infant mortality (early mortality). We then calculated potentially preventable excess mortality among higher-order gestations, using twins and triplets sequentially as the referent category. RESULTS: Early mortality increased significantly with each additional fetus in a dose-dependent fashion (P <.001), corresponding to relative risks (95% confidence interval) of 2.4 (2.2, 2.6) for triplets, 3.3 (2.5, 4.4) for quadruplets, and 10.3 (5.0, 21.4) for quintuplets. The creation of twin rather than quadruplet pregnancies would be associated with a substantially higher level of preventable excess mortality (70%) than the creation of triplet pregnancies (28%). By contrast, limiting quintuplets to twins or triplets did not exhibit a similar level of difference (89% versus 75%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the need for regulating the number of transferred embryos that result in quadruplet and quintuplet pregnancies.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

[Influenza associated excess mortality in Argentina: 1992-2002].

OBJECTIVE: To describe the effect of influenza on mortality in Argentina, from 1992 to 2002. METHOD: In order to fulfill this objective, influenza associated excess mortality was determined by the application of ARIMA method to mortality data for pneumonia and influenza and for all causes. RESULTS: Excess mortality was only detected during subtype A/H3N2 seasons. The model yielded about 31,240 excess mortality for all causes. Pneumonia deaths contributed in about 15%. Approximately 80-95% of pneumonia and influenza excess mortality was restricted to persons > 64 years old. CONCLUSIONS: These estimations show that the virus circulation has had an important influence on mortality, increasing the number of deaths, especially in elderly population. The aging of the population reinforces the need of preventing strategies, including vaccination programs with high coverage in elderly population.

Aged↗
PubMed1995

Differential mortality in New York City (1988-1992). Part Two: excess mortality in the south Bronx.

To display the extent of variations in mortality according to geographic regions in New York City, we have compared mortality in New York City as a whole with that of the South Bronx. Mortality records for 1988 to 1992 and 1990 US census data for New York City were linked. The 471,000 residents of the South Bronx were younger, less educated, and more likely to lack health insurance than other New Yorkers. Using age- and gender-stratified populations and mortality in New York City as standards, age-adjusted death rates and excess mortality in the South Bronx were determined. All-cause mortality in the South Bronx was 26% higher than the city as a whole. Mortality for AIDS, injury and poisoning, drug and alcohol abuse, and cardiovascular diseases were 50% to 100% higher in the South Bronx than in New York City; years of potential life lost before age 65 in the South Bronx were 41.6% and 44.2% higher for men and women, respectively, than in New York City; AIDS accounted for the largest single share of excess premature deaths (21.8%). In summary, inequalities in health status, reflected by higher mortality rates in the South Bronx, are consistent with, and perhaps caused by, lower socioeconomic status and deficient medical care among residents of this inner-city community.

Cause of Death↗
PubMed1996

The disadvantage of being advantaged?--on a social gradient in excess mortality among alcohol abusers.

Do alcohol abusers from upper social classes have a more elevated excess mortality than alcohol abusers from lower social classes? This question was empirically assessed by analyses on data from a 40-year prospective study of more than 40,000 Norwegian conscripts on whom data on social class (i.e. educational level), alcohol abuse (admission to treatment) and cause specific mortality before the age of 60 years were available. The results demonstrated a social gradient in excess mortality: relative risk of premature death was 2.7 among those with the lowest educational level (primary school only) increasing to 6.2 among those with the highest educational level at conscription (grammar school). Among the alcohol abusers the risk of premature death, was slightly, but not significantly higher among those highly educated as compared to those with less education. Thus, alcohol abuse was not only found to elevate the individual's risk of premature death, but it also appeared to outweigh the advantages of those more socially privileged with respect to health and mortality. The question as to whether social class differences in selection to treatment could account for the observed social gradient in excess mortality is focused in the discussion.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Influenza-associated excess mortality from monthly total mortality data for Germany from 1947 to 2000.

OBJECTIVES: Death attributable to influenza is noted under various causes in the mortality statistics. Therefore, excess of total mortality is frequently used for the estimation of the entire impact of influenza on mortality. Various models for the estimation of the expected mortality are in use but are rather complex which hampers their routine use. A simple and hence transparent model was developed and applied to the total mortality in Germany from 1947 to 2000. METHODS: The method is based on the pattern of the distribution of the mortality over the months. Additional trends over the time could be included with simple factors. In this manner the model was applicable over the total observation period. RESULTS: The fit for the months where influenza was not epidemic was good and comparable to other models (R2 = 0.91). The estimated excess mortality is plausible and congruent with estimates based on other models. CONCLUSION: This method is applicable to long time series of any duration and obvious trends could be considered by simple factors in a readily identifiable and plausible way. Possible reductions in precision due to the consideration of a given monthly distribution pattern of the annual mortality seem tolerable with respect to the goodness of fit of the model. The estimation includes the pandemics of 1957/58 and 1968 to 1970.

Germany↗
PubMed1992

The nature of excess mortality in nursing home patients with dementia.

Survival and excess mortality in 606 dementia patients admitted to a psychogeriatric nursing home were analyzed in a historical prospective 8-year follow up. The overall 2-year survival rate after admission was 55%, 60% for women and 39% for men. Patients with senile dementia of the Alzheimer's type had higher 2-year survival rates than those with multi-infarct dementia (57% vs 41%). Physical impairment, inactivity, dependency as measured on an observational scale, and comorbidity had an adverse effect on survival. Diseases with the lowest two-year survival were myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, parkinsonism, pulmonary infection, anemia, pressure sores, and malignancies. The mortality rates of dementia patients were higher than those of the general population, especially during the first months after admission. This excess mortality of dementia patients was better described by an additive than by a multiplicative factor, suggesting that dementia can primarily be regarded as an independent, competing mortality risk.

Aged↗
PubMed1978

Causes of perinatal mortality excess in prolonged gestations.

The study sought to determine what proportion of the perinatal mortality excess associated with prolonged gestations was due to placental insufficiency. Using data from a large prospective study of pregnancy, the perinatal mortality rate was 20.9/1000 births for post-term and 11.7/1000 for term infants. Only a quarter of the perinatal mortality rate excess in the post-term pregnancies was due to disorders related to inadequate uteroplacental perfusion, i.e., abruptio placentae, large placental infarcts and marked placental growth retardation. Twenty-six per cent of the mortality excess was due to congenital malformations, 19% to amniotic fluid infections, 8% to Rh erythroblastosis fetalis and the remaining 22% to a variety of other disorders. The post-term mortality excess due to congenital malformations was in infants who had hypoplastic adrenal glands, a well-known cause of prolonged gestation. The 4205 placentas of the post-term infants did not show any significant increases in those microscopic lesions that are characteristic of uteroplacental under-perfusion.

Abruptio Placentae↗