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PubMed2026

Development and external validation of an explainable machine learning model for predicting chronic kidney disease progression in the Korean population.

BACKGROUND: Current risk stratification models, such as the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE), exhibit variable performance across ethnic groups and fail to capture dynamic clinical trajectories. This study aimed to develop and validate a Korean-specific machine learning (ML) model for predicting chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression using an ensemble approach. METHODS: We used electronic health records from Seoul National University Hospital for model development (n = 28,209) and the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES) CKD cohort for external validation (n = 3,960). The primary outcome was a composite of ≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or progression to end-stage renal disease within 2 years. A soft-voting ensemble of four ML algorithms (XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, and Random Forest) was developed. RESULTS: The ensemble model demonstrated robust discrimination in internal validation (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC], 0.939; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.934-0.944), significantly exceeding the KFRE (AUROC, 0.879-0.884). External validation in the KoGES cohort showed comparable discrimination (AUROC, 0.859; 95% CI, 0.798-0.914) versus KFRE (four-variable AUROC, 0.882; 95% CI, 0.818-0.935). Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis identified baseline eGFR, serum creatinine, eGFR slope, albumin, and hemoglobin as key prognostic features, supporting a complementary framework using KFRE for community screening and the ML model for hospital-based risk stratification. CONCLUSION: The ensemble ML model accurately predicts short-term CKD progression in Korean patients. By incorporating longitudinal features and ensemble learning, it provides a precise alternative to Western-derived equations, particularly in tertiary care settings.

Chronic kidney failure↗
PubMed2005

Ensembling local learners through multimodal perturbation.

Ensemble learning algorithms train multiple component learners and then combine their predictions. In order to generate a strong ensemble, the component learners should be with high accuracy as well as high diversity. A popularly used scheme in generating accurate but diverse component learners is to perturb the training data with resampling methods, such as the bootstrap sampling used in bagging. However, such a scheme is not very effective on local learners such as nearest-neighbor classifiers because a slight change in training data can hardly result in local learners with big differences. In this paper, a new ensemble algorithm named Filtered Attribute Subspace based Bagging with Injected Randomness (FASBIR) is proposed for building ensembles of local learners, which utilizes multimodal perturbation to help generate accurate but diverse component learners. In detail, FASBIR employs the perturbation on the training data with bootstrap sampling, the perturbation on the input attributes with attribute filtering and attribute subspace selection, and the perturbation on the learning parameters with randomly configured distance metrics. A large empirical study shows that FASBIR is effective in building ensembles of nearest-neighbor classifiers, whose performance is better than that of many other ensemble algorithms.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2004

Variational learning and bits-back coding: an information-theoretic view to Bayesian learning.

The bits-back coding first introduced by Wallace in 1990 and later by Hinton and van Camp in 1993 provides an interesting link between Bayesian learning and information-theoretic minimum-description-length (MDL) learning approaches. The bits-back coding allows interpreting the cost function used in the variational Bayesian method called ensemble learning as a code length in addition to the Bayesian view of misfit of the posterior approximation and a lower bound of model evidence. Combining these two viewpoints provides interesting insights to the learning process and the functions of different parts of the model. In this paper, the problem of variational Bayesian learning of hierarchical latent variable models is used to demonstrate the benefits of the two views. The code-length interpretation provides new views to many parts of the problem such as model comparison and pruning and helps explain many phenomena occurring in learning.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2025

Gene Specific Pathogenicity Predictor for Chromatin-Remodeling BAF Complex-Associated Neurodevelopmental Disorders.

Advancements in whole genome sequencing have increased the number of variants of uncertain significance (VUS) identified in patient genomes. This has created a diagnostic bottleneck for genetic counselors tasked with sifting through these variants and determining those most likely to be causative for a patient's clinical presentation. Machine learning (ML) tools can aid in identifying pathogenic variants from VUS, but there is a need for gene-specific algorithms that predict pathogenic variants with high accuracy. To address this need, we present a workflow for developing gene-specific, ensemble-learning ML tools, that leverage outputs from other algorithms, locations of variants within the gene, and evolutionary conservation data to make a prediction of pathogenicity. Variants in SMARCA2 and SMARCA4 that are associated with rare neurodevelopmental diseases were used to screen 15 ML algorithms. A random forest learner was tuned to yield a final accuracy of 0.93 on holdout data. Generalizing this predictor to other BAF complex proteins resulted in a sharp decline in performance. We trained a final predictor for all genes in the study to create a predictor that identifies pathogenic variants in these BAF subunits with an accuracy of 0.91 on holdout data. This predictor specific to BAF complex proteins performs with higher accuracy and AUROC than any other predictor. The decline in performance when generalized to other proteins emphasizes the need for the gene-specific calibration of predictors. Our workflow for the development of such models provides a quick, computationally inexpensive route for improving the ML tools available to genetic counselors.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2004

Classification and knowledge discovery in protein databases.

We consider the problem of classification in noisy, high-dimensional, and class-imbalanced protein datasets. In order to design a complete classification system, we use a three-stage machine learning framework consisting of a feature selection stage, a method addressing noise and class-imbalance, and a method for combining biologically related tasks through a prior-knowledge based clustering. In the first stage, we employ Fisher's permutation test as a feature selection filter. Comparisons with the alternative criteria show that it may be favorable for typical protein datasets. In the second stage, noise and class imbalance are addressed by using minority class over-sampling, majority class under-sampling, and ensemble learning. The performance of logistic regression models, decision trees, and neural networks is systematically evaluated. The experimental results show that in many cases ensembles of logistic regression classifiers may outperform more expressive models due to their robustness to noise and low sample density in a high-dimensional feature space. However, ensembles of neural networks may be the best solution for large datasets. In the third stage, we use prior knowledge to partition unlabeled data such that the class distributions among non-overlapping clusters significantly differ. In our experiments, training classifiers specialized to the class distributions of each cluster resulted in a further decrease in classification error.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2026

Reinforcement learning-based dynamic ensemble for missense variant effect prediction and tiered prioritization of VUS.

BACKGROUND: Accurate classification of missense variants remains a challenging task despite major advances in genomics. Numerous computational models have been developed to assist in variant classification, but often require repeated integration and benchmarking efforts. Ensemble methods have been proposed to overcome the limitations of single predictors, but mostly rely on fixed, predefined weights that constrain their ability to capture interactions among predictive signals. METHODS: We present GenixRL, a dynamic ensemble framework that reformulates model fusion as a reinforcement learning optimization problem. GenixRL uses a Q-learning agent to learn a policy that dynamically weights the probabilistic outputs of complementary predictors, including BayesDel (addAF and noAF), ClinPred, and MetaRNN. Replacing static weighting with policy learning allows GenixRL to adaptively identify optimal weightings and substantially improve classification accuracy. RESULTS: In benchmark evaluation against 25 state-of-the-art predictors, GenixRL achieved an AUROC of 0.9644 on an independent ClinVar dataset. On saturation genome editing assays for BRCA1 and BRCA2, GenixRL achieved the best performance and ranked highest on 14 of 17 clinically significant genes in a zero-shot evaluation. Applied to uncertain and conflicting ClinVar variants, GenixRL enabled tiered, evidence-based prioritization of hundreds of thousands of variants as likely pathogenic or pathogenic with high confidence, supported by orthogonal population evidence from gnomAD. CONCLUSION: GenixRL advances pathogenicity prediction for missense variants and provides an adaptive ensemble that sorts variants of uncertain significance into tiered candidates for expert curation and functional validation.

Mutation, Missense↗
PubMed2024

PredIL13: Stacking a variety of machine and deep learning methods with ESM-2 language model for identifying IL13-inducing peptides.

Interleukin (IL)-13 has emerged as one of the recently identified cytokine. Since IL-13 causes the severity of COVID-19 and alters crucial biological processes, it is urgent to explore novel molecules or peptides capable of including IL-13. Computational prediction has received attention as a complementary method to in-vivo and in-vitro experimental identification of IL-13 inducing peptides, because experimental identification is time-consuming, laborious, and expensive. A few computational tools have been presented, including the IL13Pred and iIL13Pred. To increase prediction capability, we have developed PredIL13, a cutting-edge ensemble learning method with the latest ESM-2 protein language model. This method stacked the probability scores outputted by 168 single-feature machine/deep learning models, and then trained a logistic regression-based meta-classifier with the stacked probability score vectors. The key technology was to implement ESM-2 and to select the optimal single-feature models according to their absolute weight coefficient for logistic regression (AWCLR), an indicator of the importance of each single-feature model. Especially, the sequential deletion of single-feature models based on the iterative AWCLR ranking (SDIWC) method constructed the meta-classifier consisting of the top 16 single-feature models, named PredIL13, while considering the model's accuracy. The PredIL13 greatly outperformed the-state-of-the-art predictors, thus is an invaluable tool for accelerating the detection of IL13-inducing peptide within the human genome.

Humans↗
PubMed2005

Survival ensembles.

We propose a unified and flexible framework for ensemble learning in the presence of censoring. For right-censored data, we introduce a random forest algorithm and a generic gradient boosting algorithm for the construction of prognostic and diagnostic models. The methodology is utilized for predicting the survival time of patients suffering from acute myeloid leukemia based on clinical and genetic covariates. Furthermore, we compare the diagnostic capabilities of the proposed censored data random forest and boosting methods, applied to the recurrence-free survival time of node-positive breast cancer patients, with previously published findings.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2006

Ensemble-based discriminant learning with boosting for face recognition.

In this paper, we propose a novel ensemble-based approach to boost performance of traditional Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA)-based methods used in face recognition. The ensemble-based approach is based on the recently emerged technique known as "boosting". However, it is generally believed that boosting-like learning rules are not suited to a strong and stable learner such as LDA. To break the limitation, a novel weakness analysis theory is developed here. The theory attempts to boost a strong learner by increasing the diversity between the classifiers created by the learner, at the expense of decreasing their margins, so as to achieve a tradeoff suggested by recent boosting studies for a low generalization error. In addition, a novel distribution accounting for the pairwise class discriminant information is introduced for effective interaction between the booster and the LDA-based learner. The integration of all these methodologies proposed here leads to the novel ensemble-based discriminant learning approach, capable of taking advantage of both the boosting and LDA techniques. Promising experimental results obtained on various difficult face recognition scenarios demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. We believe that this work is especially beneficial in extending the boosting framework to accommodate general (strong/weak) learners.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2004

Reduction of single-neuron firing uncertainty by cortical ensembles during motor skill learning.

Motor skill learning is usually characterized by shortening of response time and performance of faster, more stereotypical movements. However, little is known about the changes in neural activity that underlie these behavioral changes. Here we used chronically implanted electrode arrays to record neuronal activity in the rat primary motor cortex (MI) as animals learned to execute movements in two directions. Strong modulation of MI single-neuron activity was observed while movement duration of the animal decreased. Despite many learning-induced changes, the precision with which single neurons fire did not improve with learning. Hence, prediction of movement direction from single neurons was bounded. In contrast, prediction of movement direction using neuronal ensembles improved significantly with learning, suggesting that, with practice, neuronal ensembles learn to overcome the uncertainty introduced by single-neuron stochastic activity.

Acoustic Stimulation↗
PubMed2004

Learning modulates the ensemble representations for odors in primary olfactory networks.

Recent evidence suggests that odor-driven responses in the insect antennal lobe (AL) can be modified by associative and nonassociative processes, as has been shown in the vertebrate olfactory bulb. However, the specific network changes that occur in response to olfactory learning remain unknown. To characterize changes in AL network activity during learning, we developed an in vivo protocol in Manduca sexta that allows continuous monitoring of neural ensembles and feeding behavior over the course of olfactory conditioning. Here, we show that Pavlovian conditioning produced a net recruitment of responsive neural units across the AL that persisted after conditioning. Recruitment only occurred when odor reliably predicted food. Conversely, when odor did not predict food, a net loss of responsive units occurred. Simultaneous measures of feeding responses indicated that the treatment-specific patterns of neural recruitment were positively correlated with changes in the insect's behavioral response to odor. In addition to recruitment, conditioning also produced consistent and profound shifts in the temporal responses of 16% of recorded units. These results show that odor representations in the AL are dynamic and related to olfactory memory consolidation. We furthermore provide evidence that the basis of the learning-dependent changes in the AL is not simply an increase in activity in the neural network representing an odorant. Rather, learning produces a restructuring of spatial and temporal components of network responses to odor in the AL.

Animals↗
PubMed2026

Meta-PseU: A meta-classifier for robust prediction of RNA pseudouridine modification sites from long sequences.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Pseudouridine (Ψ) represents one of the most abundant and conserved RNA modifications. Ψ provides an additional hydrogen-bond donor that enhances RNA structural stability and modulates translation. It participates in diverse biological processes, including RNA-protein interactions, splicing, translational control, and stress responses. Aberrant pseudouridylation is implicated in cancer, neurodegenerative disorders, and autoimmune diseases. Despite its biological importance, experimental identification of Ψ sites remains time-consuming and costly, limiting the feasibility of transcriptome-wide profiling. Computational approaches have therefore become essential complements to experimental techniques. However, state-of-the-art machine-learning and deep-learning predictors often suffer from limited generalizability due to small training datasets. To overcome these issues, we aim at constructing new long-sequence datasets and developing a novel Ψ site predictor. METHODS: New long-sequence datasets were constructed as benchmarks for RNA Ψ-site prediction. The Ψ modification sites in RMBase 3.0 were mapped to the reference genomes across three species of human, mouse, and yeast, and the RNA sequences with a length of 201 were generated by extending the upstream and downstream from the mapped, central sites. To eliminate sequence redundancy, the sequences were clustered using CD-HIT with a 70% sequence identity threshold. We developed Meta-PseU, a logistic regression-based meta-classifier that considered 118 machine learning and deep learning classifiers. The datasets and programs are freely accessible at https://github.com/kuratahiroyuki/MetaPseU. RESULTS: By optimizing model configuration, we proposed the Meta-PseU model stacking 32 machine learning and deep learning classifiers out of 118 classifiers. Meta-PseU substantially improved model generalizability, overcoming a key limitation of existing approaches. It greatly outperformed state-of-the-art predictors and achieved increasing accuracy with increasing sequence length. CONCLUSIONS: Long-sequence datasets were newly constructed as benchmarks for RNA Ψ-site prediction. Meta-PseU offers a new framework for robust Ψ-site identification by using long sequences.

Pseudouridine↗
PubMed2001

Aging and learning-specific changes in single-neuron activity in CA1 hippocampus during rabbit trace eyeblink conditioning.

Rabbit trace eyeblink conditioning is a hippocampus-dependent task in which the auditory conditioned stimulus (CS) is separated from the corneal airpuff unconditioned stimulus (US) by a 500-ms empty trace interval. Young rabbits are able to associate the CS and US and acquire trace eyeblink conditioned responses (CRs); however, a subset of aged rabbits show poor learning on this task. Several studies have shown that CA1-hippocampal activity is altered by aging; however, it is unknown how aging affects the interaction of CA1 single neurons within local ensembles during learning. The present study examined the extracellular activity of CA1 pyramidal neurons within local ensembles in aged (29-34 mo) and young (3-6 mo) rabbits during 10 daily sessions (80 trials/session) of trace eyeblink conditioning. A single surgically implanted nonmovable stereotrode was used to record ensembles ranging in size from 2 to 12 separated single neurons. A total of six young and four aged rabbits acquired significant levels of CRs, whereas five aged rabbits showed very few CRs similar to a group of five young pseudoconditioned rabbits. Pyramidal cells (2,159 total) were recorded from these four groups during training. Increases in CA1 pyramidal cell firing to the CS and US were diminished in the aged nonlearners. Local ensembles from all groups contained heterogeneous types of pyramidal cell responses. Some cells showed increases while others showed decreases in firing during the trace eyeblink trial. Hierarchical clustering was used to isolate seven different classes of single-neuron responses that showed unique firing patterns during the trace conditioning trial. The proportion of cells in each group was similar for six of seven response classes. Unlike the excitatory modeling patterns reported in previous studies, three of seven response types (67% of recorded cells) exhibited some type of inhibitory decrease to the CS, US, or both. The single-neuron response classes showed different patterns of learning-related activity across training. Several of the single-neuron types from the aged nonlearners showed unique alterations in response magnitude to the CS and US. Cross-correlation analyses suggest that specific single-neuron types provide more correlated single-neuron activity to the ensemble processing of information. However, aged nonlearners showed a significantly lower level of coincident pyramidal cell firing for all cell types within local ensembles in CA1.

Aging↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Statistical efficiency of adaptive algorithms.

The statistical efficiency of a learning algorithm applied to the adaptation of a given set of variable weights is defined as the ratio of the quality of the converged solution to the amount of data used in training the weights. Statistical efficiency is computed by averaging over an ensemble of learning experiences. A high quality solution is very close to optimal, while a low quality solution corresponds to noisy weights and less than optimal performance. In this work, two gradient descent adaptive algorithms are compared, the LMS algorithm and the LMS/Newton algorithm. LMS is simple and practical, and is used in many applications worldwide. LMS/Newton is based on Newton's method and the LMS algorithm. LMS/Newton is optimal in the least squares sense. It maximizes the quality of its adaptive solution while minimizing the use of training data. Many least squares adaptive algorithms have been devised over the years, but no other least squares algorithm can give better performance, on average, than LMS/Newton. LMS is easily implemented, but LMS/Newton, although of great mathematical interest, cannot be implemented in most practical applications. Because of its optimality, LMS/Newton serves as a benchmark for all least squares adaptive algorithms. The performances of LMS and LMS/Newton are compared, and it is found that under many circumstances, both algorithms provide equal performance. For example, when both algorithms are tested with statistically nonstationary input signals, their average performances are equal. When adapting with stationary input signals and with random initial conditions, their respective learning times are on average equal. However, under worst-case initial conditions, the learning time of LMS can be much greater than that of LMS/Newton, and this is the principal disadvantage of the LMS algorithm. But the strong points of LMS are ease of implementation and optimal performance under important practical conditions. For these reasons, the LMS algorithm has enjoyed very widespread application. It is used in almost every modem for channel equalization and echo cancelling. Furthermore, it is related to the famous backpropagation algorithm used for training neural networks.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2026

Revealing potential biomarkers and metabolic mechanisms of ovarian aging in hens during late laying period based on machine learning and metabolomics.

Ovarian function decline during the late laying period represents a major bottleneck for the economic efficiency of the global poultry industry. However, the underlying metabolic mechanisms and reliable early-warning biomarkers for ovarian aging remain poorly understood. In this study, we performed the first untargeted LC-MS/MS metabolomics analysis of ovarian tissues from Taihe silky fowls at peak laying (30 weeks) and late laying (50 weeks) stages, and employed an ensemble machine learning strategy integrating LASSO, random forest, and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms to identify high-confidence core biomarkers of ovarian aging. Gene expression analysis was further conducted to validate the potential molecular mechanisms. Our results showed that the metabolic profiles of ovarian tissues differed significantly between the two groups. A total of 6 core biomarkers were identified, 4 of which were long-chain acylcarnitines. Mechanistic analysis revealed that downregulation of key genes in the carnitine shuttle system led to impaired mitochondrial fatty acid β-oxidation, which in turn triggered excessive oxidative stress and compromised ovarian endocrine function. In conclusion, this study identifies long-chain acylcarnitines as potential metabolic biomarkers for ovarian aging in Taihe silky fowls. These findings provide novel insights into the metabolic basis of poultry ovarian aging and lay a theoretical foundation for the precise regulation of reproductive performance in indigenous poultry breeds.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Gene expression data analysis of human lymphoma using support vector machines and output coding ensembles.

The large amount of data generated by DNA microarrays was originally analysed using unsupervised methods, such as clustering or self-organizing maps. Recently supervised methods such as decision trees, dot-product support vector machines (SVM) and multi-layer perceptrons (MLP) have been applied in order to classify normal and tumoural tissues. We propose methods based on non-linear SVM with polynomial and Gaussian kernels, and output coding (OC) ensembles of learning machines to separate normal from malignant tissues, to classify different types of lymphoma and to analyse the role of sets of coordinately expressed genes in carcinogenic processes of lymphoid tissues. Using gene expression data from "Lymphochip", a specialised DNA microarray developed at Stanford University School of Medicine, we show that SVM can correctly separate normal from tumoural tissues, and OC ensembles can be successfully used to classify different types of lymphoma. Moreover, we identify a group of coordinately expressed genes related to the separation of two distinct subgroups inside diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), validating a previous Alizadeh's hypothesis about the existence of two distinct diseases inside DLBCL.

Artificial Intelligence↗
PubMed2004

A comprehensive evaluation of multicategory classification methods for microarray gene expression cancer diagnosis.

MOTIVATION: Cancer diagnosis is one of the most important emerging clinical applications of gene expression microarray technology. We are seeking to develop a computer system for powerful and reliable cancer diagnostic model creation based on microarray data. To keep a realistic perspective on clinical applications we focus on multicategory diagnosis. To equip the system with the optimum combination of classifier, gene selection and cross-validation methods, we performed a systematic and comprehensive evaluation of several major algorithms for multicategory classification, several gene selection methods, multiple ensemble classifier methods and two cross-validation designs using 11 datasets spanning 74 diagnostic categories and 41 cancer types and 12 normal tissue types. RESULTS: Multicategory support vector machines (MC-SVMs) are the most effective classifiers in performing accurate cancer diagnosis from gene expression data. The MC-SVM techniques by Crammer and Singer, Weston and Watkins and one-versus-rest were found to be the best methods in this domain. MC-SVMs outperform other popular machine learning algorithms, such as k-nearest neighbors, backpropagation and probabilistic neural networks, often to a remarkable degree. Gene selection techniques can significantly improve the classification performance of both MC-SVMs and other non-SVM learning algorithms. Ensemble classifiers do not generally improve performance of the best non-ensemble models. These results guided the construction of a software system GEMS (Gene Expression Model Selector) that automates high-quality model construction and enforces sound optimization and performance estimation procedures. This is the first such system to be informed by a rigorous comparative analysis of the available algorithms and datasets. AVAILABILITY: The software system GEMS is available for download from http://www.gems-system.org for non-commercial use. CONTACT: alexander.statnikov@vanderbilt.edu.

Algorithms↗