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PubMed1996

[Prognostic factors of early mortality in the 1st episode of hemorrhage caused by esophageal varices].

AIM: To assess the prognostic factors of early mortality in cirrhotic patients with the first variceal bleeding episode. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fifty-five cirrhotic patients with endoscopic evidence of variceal bleeding treated with sclerotherapy during emergent endoscopy were included. RESULTS: Permanent hemostasis was obtained in 36 patients (65.5%). Fourteen (25.4%) patients died within six weeks of the bleeding episode. Twenty-four variables obtained at admission and in the following days were compared between patients who survived (n = 41), and died (n = 14). In the univariate analysis the following variables were related to early mortality: prothrombin ratio (p = 0.04), the presence of ascites (p = 0.004) and encephalopathy (p = 0.06), albumin (p = 0.01), Child-Pugh score (p = 0.0003), hemostasis during endoscopy (p = 0.002), absence of rebleeding at 24 hours (p = 0.01) and early rebleeding (within five days after the bleeding episode) (p = 0.006). Multiple logistic regression identified the Child-Pugh score (OR 11.86, CI 95% 2.54-55.48; p = 0.001) and early rebleeding (OR 6.27, CI 95% 1.29-30.44; p = 0.02) as prognostic independent factors of early mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The degree of hepatic failure and early rebleeding are prognostic independent factors of early mortality in cirrhotic patients after the first variceal bleeding episode.

Analysis of Variance↗
PubMed2002

Preoperative prediction of early mortality and morbidity in coronary bypass surgery.

OBJECTIVE: A scoring system to predict early mortality and morbidity in CABG, distinguishing low and high risk patients. METHODS: 563 patients (1998) served as development dataset, 969 patients as validation set. Univariate and logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors. RESULTS: Gender, hypertension, pulmonary disease, reoperation, age, operative status and left-ventricular function were predictive variables for early mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.81. We identified a low risk, mortality of 1.8% and a high-risk group, mortality of 13.4%. Diabetes, hypertension, kidney and lung disease, reoperation, operative status and left ventricular function were predictive variables for morbidity. The area under the ROC curve was 0.73. We identified a low risk, morbidity of 17%, and a high-risk group, morbidity of 41%. CONCLUSION: This scoring system is a simple system identifying a low and high-risk group for morbidity and early mortality.

Aged↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Valve replacement surgery complicated by acute renal failure--predictors of early mortality.

BACKGROUND: Acute renal failure (ARF) is a serious complication of valve replacement surgery. The aim of this study was to determine the predictors of early mortality and if causative factors are preventable. METHODS: In the 25-year period between 1977 and 2002, 255 (2.6%) of 9721 patients (11,007 operations), who had valve replacement surgery, were managed for ARF with dialysis. The mean age of the patient population was 67.1 +/- 11.6 years (range 24 to 87 years, median 70.3 years). Fifty preoperative, operative, and postoperative risk factors were assessed as predictors of early mortality by univariate and multivariate modeling. RESULTS: The early mortality was 25.1% (64 patients). The predictors by univariate analysis were: New York Heart Association class (p = 0.001); ASA within 5 days (p = 0.030); cardiogenic shock (p = 0.010); infection--perioperative sepsis and preoperative endocarditis (p = 0.000); intraoperative stroke (p = 0.003); status--emergent (p = 0.000); mitral valve replacement (p = 0.040); ischemic (X-clamp) time >120 minutes (p = 0.020); cardiopulmonary bypass time >180 minutes (p = 0.000); surgical time >360 minutes (p = 0.000); surgical hemorrhage (p = 0.020); acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) (p = 0.040). Multivariate predictors were urgent status of operation, odds ratio (OR) 0.3 (p = 0.029); emergent status of operation, OR 5.8 (p = 0.034); ischemic (X-clamp) time >120 minutes, OR 4.4 (p = 0.030); surgical time >360 minutes, OR 6.3 (p = 0.019); surgical hemorrhage, OR 5.1 (p = 0.003); perioperative nosocomial sepsis, OR 3.8 (p = 0.006); and preoperative endocarditis, OR 4.4 (p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Early mortality from ARF in valve replacement surgery is related to emergent status, ischemic and surgical times, surgical hemorrhage, and nosocomial infection/preoperative endocarditis. Among the variables assessed, preoperative renal insufficiency, unstable angina/recent myocardial infarction <6 weeks, and concomitant coronary artery bypass were not predictive. The evaluation of predictors of ARF requires further extensive assessment.

Acute Kidney Injury↗
PubMed1979

Clinical and angiographic determinants of early mortality related to aortocoronary bypass surgery.

Clinical and angiographic features were identified that influences early mortality in 807 patients who underwent aortocoronary bypass grafting alone among the first 1000 consecutive patients subjected to aortocoronary bypass operations at the Montreal Heart Institute. The early mortality was 4.7% and was related to the patient's age, the duration of the illness from its first clinical manifestation, certain types of clinical presentation, electrocardiographic findings, the number of obstructed arteries and the ejection fraction. The influence of the number of obstructed arteries appeared to be independent of other factors, including the number of grafts and the degree of correction. Early mortality was not influenced by risk factors such as lipid abnormalities, hypertension or diabetes, by the history of previous myocardial infarction or the number of grafts.

Adult↗
PubMed2000

Predicting early mortality following percutaneous stent insertion for malignant biliary obstruction: a multivariate risk factor analysis.

BACKGROUND: Percutaneous stent placement is an accepted method of palliation in malignant biliary obstruction. Factors predicting early mortality after this procedure have not been identified. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of 141 patients with malignant biliary obstruction who underwent percutaneous stent placement for biliary decompression to identify the risk factors associated with early mortality (< or = 30 days). RESULTS: Of 14 clinicopathological and laboratory variables analysed blood urea, albumin, haemoglobin and alkaline phosphatase were found to be significant on univariate analysis. The age and gender of the patient along with cancer type, level of obstruction, presence of pyrexia and bilirubin level had no influence on early mortality. Stepwise logistic regression identified the haemoglobin level and blood urea to be independently significant in predicting early mortality. Overall 30-day mortality was 20.5% (29/141). Patients with blood urea over 4.3 mmol/l and a haemoglobin less than 10.9 g/dl had a mortality rate of 52% (12/23) compared with 14% (17/118) in the remainder. Using these two variables a regression equation has been derived which allows calculation of the probability of survival at 30 days after the percutaneous procedure. CONCLUSIONS: Laboratory variables in patients with malignant obstructive jaundice can be used to predict mortality following percutaneous stent insertion.

Adult↗
PubMed2002

Predialysis management and predictors for early mortality in uremic patients who die within one year after initiation of dialysis therapy.

Despite improvements in dialysis therapy, the mortality rate of patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD) has remained high. A relatively high proportion of uremic patients dies within one year after the initiation of dialysis treatment. The aim of this study was to evaluate predictors for this early mortality in patients with ESRD. A total of 66 uremic patients were included in the study. Patients were divided in those who survived < 1 year (n = 17) and those who survived > or = 1 year (n = 49). We compared the prevalence of diabetes and hypertension and of vascular diseases as well as the prevalence of heart insufficiency (EF < 30%) and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH). Additionally, we estimated the laboratory parameters serum creatinine, creatinine clearance, BUN, cholesterol, triglycerides, fibrinogen, serum protein, serum albumin and hemoglobin, and evaluated the indications for the initiation of dialysis therapy in both patient groups. The patients with survival < 1 year were significantly older (64+/-12 vs. 54+/-14 years, p<0.01) and showed a lower BMI (22+/-3 vs. 25+/-3, p<0.01) than those who survived > 1 year. The prevalence of diabetes (70% vs. 31%, p<0.05), cardiac insufficiency (70% vs. 16%, p<0.025), cardiovascular disease (65% vs. 28%, p<0.05) and peripheral vascular diseases (70% vs. 28%, p<0.05) was significantly higher in the patients with early mortality. The prevalence of hypertension was similar in both groups, however, the prevalence of LVH was significantly higher in the patients who survived < 1 year (88% vs. 37%, p<0.05). Laboratory parameters were not significantly different in the two groups of patients, with the exception of serum albumin, which was significantly lower in the patients with early mortality (3.5+/-0.6 vs. 3.9+/-0.4 g/l, p<0.02). Hyperhydration was the most common indication for the start of dialysis in patients with early mortality (59% vs. 13%, p<0.025). Cardiac insufficiency was the most common cause of death in these subjects (n = 10, 59%). Six individuals (12%) died within four weeks after initiating dialysis therapy. Thus, there are several predictors for early mortality in end-stage renal disease patients, including high age, low BMI, the presence of diabetes, coronary heart disease, heart insufficiency and LVH, as well as low serum albumin levels. A relatively high percentage of patients die shortly after the start of dialysis therapy. Heart insufficiency is the most common cause of early death in these patients.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

OPCAB versus early mortality and morbidity: an issue between clinical relevance and statistical significance.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of OPCAB on major postoperative events in a large consecutive cohort of patients, covering the complete spectrum of risk. METHODS: A consecutive series of 3333 CABG patients operated in a single institution (Jan/97-Jan/03) is analyzed after a complete (98%) midterm reengineering towards off-pump surgery (Oct/99). Patients in cardiogenic shock are excluded. The on- (N=1593) or off-pump (N=1740) datasets are comparable for most demographic and non-cardiac variability. The studied events are early mortality, early stroke, early infarct, early dialysis and hospital stay. Three methods adjust for possible patient selection: similar datasets, forced inclusion of a saturated OPCAB propensity score and finally multivariate correction. RESULTS: Non-risk adjusted. The 3-month survival was 96.7+/-0.4% (OPCAB) and 95.9+/-0.5% (ECC) (P=0.2). The 8-day freedom from stroke was 99.4+/-0.2% (OPCAB) and 98.5+/-0.3% (ECC) (P=0.004). The prevalence of dialysis was 1.67% in OPCAB and 2.27% in ECC (P=0.2). The 8-day freedom from infarct was 98.4+/-0.2% (OPCAB) and 98.3+/-0.2% (ECC) (P=0.7). The freedom from hospital discharge day 15 was 17.6+/-0.9% (OPCAB) and 18.4+/-0.8% (ECC) (P=0.001). Propensity score corrected and adjusted for event-related variability. The survival effect remained non-significant (P=0.3), also for patients with a EuroSCORE>8 (P=0.9). The stroke effect became non-significant (P=0.2), but stayed significant for patients with severe internal carotid artery stenosis (P=0.02). The dialysis-effect remained non-significant (P=0.6), also for patients with an elevated creatinine (P=0.7). The early infarct-effect remained non-significant (P=0.8), also for the female patients (P=0.8). The hospital discharge was significantly influenced by the OPCAB approach for the total group (P=0.02) as well as for the patients with EuroSCORE>8 (P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The observed 20% reduction of mortality, 60% reduction of stroke and 20% reduction of dialysis were partly neutralized by the adjusting methods and demand, at least, larger datasets to obtain statistical significance. Subdatasets with fewer patients but higher risk identified risk-reducing effects for stroke. Hospital stay was shortened by the OPCAB approach. The interactions between risk, number of patients and the risk-reducing effect are the cornerstones of evidence generation for the OPCAB approach. These results were obtained through a very strict reengineering and cannot be extended to all OPCAB programs.

Aged↗
PubMed2005

Risk-adjusted analysis of early mortality after ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

PURPOSE: Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (RAAAs) continue to result in early mortality in up to 50% of patients. Additionally, it remains difficult to compare outcomes given the variability in patient comorbidities and presentation. The purpose of this study was to describe an instrument that permits the prospective analysis of outcomes after RAAA repair while adjusting for the variability in preoperative risk. METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing attempted open RAAA repair over a 5-year period (1999 to 2003) at our center were reviewed. Thirty-day or in-hospital mortality was the main outcome variable. Preoperative mortality risk was estimated for each patient by using a validated modification of the POSSUM scoring system (V-POSSUM). A risk-adjusted cumulative sum method (RA-CUSUM) was used to compare observed versus predicted outcomes by assigning a risk-adjusted score, based on log-likelihood ratios, to each patient. These scores were sequentially plotted with preset control limits to allow for "signaling" when results were substantially different from expected (doubling or halving of odds ratios). RESULTS: A total of 136 patients were reviewed, with an early mortality rate of 45.6%. V-POSSUM scores were accurate in predicting mortality for the entire cohort, with an observed-to-predicted mortality ratio of 0.92 (P = .80). Each patient's risk-adjusted score was plotted sequentially. In one segment of the resulting plot, the graph adopted a negative slope and crossed the lower control limit, indicating improved results compared with predicted. CONCLUSIONS: V-POSSUM scores in this series accurately predicted early mortality after RAAA surgery. The RA-CUSUM method allows for the prospective evaluation of outcomes, while taking into account patient variability. In the current study, this resulted in the identification of a series of patients who had improved outcomes compared with predicted.

Adult↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Early mortality in bone marrow transplantation for acute lymphocytic leukaemia a multivariate analysis of risk factors.

OBJECTIVES: Bone marrow transplantation is still associated with a high case-fatality rate. This study was conducted to identify the risk factors for early mortality in acute lymphocytic leukaemia patients treated with bone marrow transplantation. METHODS: Prospectively collected data on 76 acute lymphocytic leukaemia patients, treated with 60 mg/kg cyclophosphamide for two consecutive days, before (32 patients) or after (44 patients) total body irradiation who received an allogeneic (56 patients) or autologous (20 patients) bone marrow transplantation were considered in the multivariate analysis including fifteen potentially prognostic variables for early mortality. RESULTS: In the entire group, patients older than 20 years had a relative risk for early mortality of 3.96 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.33-11.76) and those with a Karnofsky Index lower than 90% had a relative risk of 5.56 (95% CI: 1.29-25). In the subgroup of allogeneic patients, those over 20 years had a relative risk of 5.17 (95% CI: 1.30-20.6); the relative risk for patients with a Karnofsky index < 90% was 10.55 (95% CI: 1.55-71.43) and 8.04 (95% CI: 43-45.07) for acute severe graft-versus-host disease. Among radiation therapy variables only dose-rate showed a trend towards better prognosis in patients treated with less than 5 cGy/min. CONCLUSIONS: In our patients and within the range of treatment variables studied, age, Karnofsky index, and graft-versus-host disease are the most important factors related with early mortality.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2000

Can we improve early mortality in patients receiving renal replacement therapy?

BACKGROUND: Approximately one in eight patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) die within the first three months of starting renal replacement therapy (RRT). We investigated which factors might improve this early mortality. METHODS: We performed a prospective nationwide study of all patients commencing RRT for ESRD in Scotland over one year. Patients were classified according to how they presented to start RRT, their burden of comorbid diseases, access prepared for dialysis, and duration of care by a nephrologist prior to commencing RRT. Those factors most strongly associated with death within 90 days of commencing treatment were determined by logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Patients with an acute unexpected element to their presentation for RRT had early mortality rates between 6.0 and 8.9 times greater than those who commenced RRT electively after a period of care from a nephrologist. Patients in high and medium comorbidity risk groups had early mortality rates of 4.7 and 2.2 times greater than those in the low-risk group. Low serum albumin had a significant association with early death. Patients who progressed steadily to ESRD, who had a planned start to dialysis, and who had mature access were 3.6 times more likely to survive beyond three months than those with no access; they were, however, also younger with less comorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: The factors principally associated with early mortality are nonelective presentation for RRT, comorbid illness, and low serum albumin. Patients cared for by a nephrologist before requiring RRT who have mature access have better short-term survival than those without access. They are also younger with less comorbidity. It may be possible to improve short-term survival in this "unplanned" group if referred early to facilitate reducing cardiovascular risk factors and preparation for RRT.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Premature rupture of membranes and early mortality among triplets in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated the relationship between premature rupture of the membranes (PROM) and early mortality among triplets in the United States. STUDY DESIGN: Analysis was conducted on matched and linked triplet sets born to mothers in the United States between 1995 and 1997. The generalized estimating equation framework was used to generate odds ratios after capturing the effects of sibling correlations within triplet clusters. RESULTS: Triplets exposed to PROM were twice as likely to experience stillbirth (OR=2.17, 95% CI [1.26-3.41]), neonatal death (OR=2.23, 95% CI [1.70-3.0]) and infant death (OR=2.21, 95% CI [1.72-2.85]), as compared to those who did not. The population-attributable risk for early mortality due to PROM was 11-12%. CONCLUSIONS: Triplets associated with PROM had a significantly higher level of early mortality than those without. Assuming a causal relationship, 11-12% of all early deaths among triplets in the United States are accounted for by PROM.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Early mortality among triplets in the United States: black-white disparity.

OBJECTIVE: In this study, we sought to estimate the black-white gap in early mortality among triplets. STUDY DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study on triplets delivered in the United States from 1995 to 1997. We computed relative risks for early mortality among triplets born to black mothers using the generalized estimating equation framework. RESULTS: There were 1317 black and 14,364 white triplets analyzed. Black triplets were twice as likely to have neonatal and infant mortality compared with whites (Odds ratio [OR], 2.00, 95% CI, 1.38-2.77; and OR, 2.20, 95% CI, 1.59-3.00, respectively). The widest disparity was observed postneonatally, with black triplets sustaining a level of risk almost 4-fold that of whites (OR, 3.60, 95% CI, 2.10-6.10). Stillbirth and perinatal mortality were comparable for both races. CONCLUSION: Black-white disparity for early mortality among triplets was widest postneonatally. This finding bears important clinical and public health implications.

Adult↗
PubMed2002

Off-pump coronary surgery: effect on early mortality and stroke.

BACKGROUND: Avoiding cardiopulmonary bypass in coronary artery bypass grafting is thought to reduce early mortality and morbidity. METHODS: We used our prospective database to compare all patients having off-pump coronary surgery (n = 389) with those having on-pump coronary surgery (n = 2412) between March 15, 1995, and November 1, 2000. Patients were grouped by age (years) in decades (>90, 80-89, 70-79, 60-69, <60 years). The Northern New England risk model was applied. Thirty-two independent variables were entered into a stepwise logistic regression analysis with the end points being surgical mortality and postoperative stroke. RESULTS: Patients undergoing off-pump operations were older (70.9 +/- 12 vs 68.1 +/- 11 years; P <.001), and their Northern New England predicted risk was higher (11.9% +/- 13% vs 9.2% +/- 10%; P <.001). However, patients having on-pump bypass had significantly more bypass grafts constructed (3.3 +/- 0.8 vs 1.9 +/- 0.8; P <.001) and triple-vessel coronary artery disease (58% vs 28%; P <.001). There were no significant differences in postoperative mortality, stroke rate, complications, and length of stay between the groups. Logistic regression analysis did not show that cardiopulmonary bypass was a risk factor for either surgical mortality (odds ratio, 1.08; P =.83) or stroke (odds ratio, 1.59; P =.27). CONCLUSION: Off-pump coronary bypass did not reduce early mortality and morbidity. Early and late results should be compared in a prospective randomized study.

Adult↗
PubMed1994

A comparison of early mortality and morbidity after single and bilateral internal mammary artery grafting with the free right internal mammary artery.

OBJECTIVE: To compare differences in early mortality and morbidity in patients receiving a single internal mammary artery graft (SIMA) with those receiving bilateral internal mammary artery grafts (BIMA) with a free right internal mammary artery (RIMA). DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of 150 patients undergoing BIMA grafting between 1989-1992 who were carefully matched with 150 patients undergoing SIMA grafting between 1987-1992 for known cardiovascular risk factors, extent of coronary disease, left ventricular function, and number of coronary grafts. Operative variables noted included aortic cross clamp time and bypass time. Postoperative cardiac, respiratory, and wound complications were also noted. RESULTS: Operative mortality was 2% in the SIMA group and 1.3% in the BIMA group (NS). Other than the prevalence of ventricular arrhythmias (P = 0.025), which were more common in the BIMA group, there were no significant differences between the two groups in terms of postoperative morbidity. At median (interquartile range) follow up of 27.94(0.86) and 23.94(0.74) months for the SIMA and BIMA groups respectively there were no deaths. 87% of the SIMA group and 91% of the BIMA group were free of symptoms at follow up. CONCLUSIONS: The earlier fears regarding increased early mortality and morbidity after BIMA surgery were not confirmed by this study. All patients receiving both mammary arteries had a free rather than pedicle right internal mammary graft. The early mortality and morbidity reported here compares favourably with previous reports on the use of a pedicle graft.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

[MELD score in prediction of early mortality in patients suffering refractory ascites treated by TIPS].

UNLABELLED: Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt (TIPS) is now well established in the treatment of complications of symptomatic portal hypertension such as acute or recurrent variceal bleeding, refractory ascites and Budd-Chiari syndrome. In some patients with refractory ascites who belong to group C according to Child-Pugh classification (score around 12), the indication of the procedure could be very questionable and early mortality is quite high. However, in some cases, the subgroup of such risky patients can profit from TIPS. Child-Pugh classification is used for the stratification of the patients routinely. During the last decade other scoring systems occured to bring a better prognostic value. MELD (Model for End stage Liver Disease) score, based only on laboratory values is one of them. Comparison of these two scoring systems in patients treated by TIPS in previous trials brought certain discrepancy, but MELD score seems to be better in predicting early mortality. The aim of our study was to determine retrospectively the predictive accuracy of MELD score for the early mortality in comparison to Child-Pugh score in patients treated for refractory ascites by TIPS. METHODS: We evaluated 110 patients (mean age 55 years) with liver cirrhosis (61% of patients with alcoholic etiology), who underwent TIPS for refractory ascites in our center from September 1992 to December 2003. MELD and Child-Pugh score was calculated and then compared between groups with early (one month), three month and one year mortality, and those who survived over this period (one, three and twelve months), comparing MELD and Child-Pugh score (ROC analysis and Student's T test were used). RESULTS: Mean follow up was 23 months. Average MELD score in the whole group was (16). In patients, who died within one month the score before TIPS was 21, three months 20 and 18 one year. Comparing MELD score between subgroups and then Child-Pugh score, only for MELD score there was a statistically significant difference (p < 0.05) in one month. Using ROC (AUC) analysis, discriminant power of MELD score was superior to Child-Pugh score for one (0.73 vs 0.63) and three month (0.73 vs 0.67) mortality. The discriminant power for one year mortality was low in both scores. CONCLUSION: MELD scoring system is a better tool to predict the risk of early mortality in patients with refractory ascites treated by TIPS than Child-Pugh classification. The discriminant power was low in both scores in one year horizon.

Ascites↗
PubMed2003

[Analysis of the correlated factors of the early mortality after orthotopic liver transplantation].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the correlated factors of early mortality after orthotopic liver transplantation. METHODS: The preoperative liver function, coagulative status, the graft's warm and cold ischemia times and the details of the operations of 42 patients were summarized retrospectively and the comparison between survival and death patients performed to analyse the correlated factors of early death after orthotopic liver transplantation. RESULTS: Thirteen of the 42 patients died early after the transplantation. Two died of vascular complication and two fo graft primary nonfunction. The comparison between those without identified causes (9 patients, in death group) and survivors (29 patients, in survival group) showed that the patients in death group had a poorer preoperative liver function and coagulative status than those in survival group, the blood loss was more than that in survival group, the length of time of operation, the duration of hypotension and anhepatic time were also longer than those in survival group. CONCLUSION: The poorer preoperative liver function, and especially the coagulative status were the main causes of early mortality after orthotopic liver transplantation, the vascular complications and the graft primary nonfunction were the other reasons that led to some patients' deaths.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

Predictive factors for early mortality after percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy.

BACKGROUND: Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) is a safe access procedure for enteral nutrition. The purpose of this investigation is to identify predictive factors for early mortality after PEG. METHODS: A retrospective review of the hospital records of 416 patients undergoing PEG from June 1, 1989, through December 31, 1991, was conducted. Patient demographics, admitting diagnosis, indication for PEG, risk factors for early mortality, and cause and date of death were reviewed. Logistic regression analysis was used to develop a model to predict early mortality after PEG. The follow-up period ranged from 1 to 30 months. RESULTS: The overall mortality rate in this review was 227 of 416 patients (54.6%). The 7- and 30-day case fatality rates were 39 of 416 (9.4%) and 97 of 416 (23.3%), respectively. Logistic regression analysis showed that urinary tract infection (odds ratio (OR) = 3.05; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.45-6.43) and previous aspiration (OR = 6.86; 95% CI = 3.27-14.4) were predictive factors for death at 1 week after PEG. Patients who had both risk factors had a 48.4% probability of dying within 7 days after PEG insertion, whereas those who had no risk factors had a 4.3% probability of death. Urinary tract infection (OR = 2.00; 95% CI = 1.17-3.41), previous aspiration (OR = 3.62; 95% CI = 2.00-6.55), and age greater than 75 years (OR = 2.49; 95% CI = 1.47-4.21) were predictive factors for death at 1 month after PEG. Patients who had all three risk factors had a 67.1% probability of death at 1 month while those who had no risk factors had a 10% probability of death. CONCLUSIONS: A subgroup of patients exists that has a very high mortality rate after PEG. Less invasive ways of nutritionally supporting these high-risk patients should be evaluated.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1993

Risk factors for early mortality in allogeneic bone marrow transplantation. A multivariate analysis on 174 leukaemia patients.

Allogeneic bone marrow transplantation in patients with leukaemia is an aggressive therapeutic procedure which implies high early mortality. Current opinion trends attribute the greater part of the procedure toxicity to the preparative regimen. The results of a multivariate analysis on data of 174 leukaemia patients conditioned with total body irradiation (TBI), 10-12 Gy, single dose or fractionated, and lung shielding at 8 Gy, plus chemotherapy: cyclophosphamide 120 mg/kg, before or after TBI, are presented. The variables statistically related with early mortality are age, Karnofsky index (KI) and acute graft-versus-host disease (GvHD). No variable depending on radiotherapy reached the significance level. The relative risk of early mortality for patients older than 26 years, in bad general condition (KI < 90%), or developing acute severe (grades II-IV)GvHD, is 3.99, 5.68, and 6.71, respectively. We conclude that in the range of TBI schedules analysed, radiation therapy is not an important factor in early death, but acute severe GvHD, or recipient's bad general condition are factors to be improved by bone marrow transplantation teams if they want to improve the therapeutic index of the procedure.

Adolescent↗