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"The article deals with the impact of the Chernobyl [nuclear] disaster on demographic development of the areas [of Belarus] damaged through the disaster. Data are given related to population size, sex and age population structure, migration, morbidity, mortality and fertility based on monitoring surveys." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
This paper summarizes the natural history, surveillance, and global patterns of infections with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the etiologic agent of AIDS The focus is primarily on HIV-1 because surveillance of HIV-2, which has recently been recognized as a separate type of the virus, is only just beginning. The natural progress of the disease is described, from acute infection through asymptomatic phase to the clinical illness phase. Available evidence on the speed of progression from infection to AIDS and possible co-factors in that progression are reviewed. The 3 patterns of AIDS which are described characterize the experience of different regions according to the types of transmission ( i.e., homosexual versus heterosexual, contaminated blood, drug use) and demographic characteristics of the affected persons. An epidemiologically based short-term forecasting model for AIDS cases is presented and used to project the demographic impact of AIDS in a hypothetical central African country. In that hypothetical setting, the impact of AIDS is shown to be disproportionately felt in urban areas, where the projected increase in population will decrease by 30% due to AIDS deaths by 1997; the growth rate of the rural population will be only slightly affected. In conclusion, the global prevalence of the disease, and prospects and implications for the future are discussed. Without effective drugs for treatment and no vaccine for prevention of HIV infections, the short-term outlook is not good. HIV/AIDS is expected to be an increasing public-health problem in the next 2 decades.
BACKGROUND: The national objectives in Healthy People 2000, drafted by health professionals aware of currently available public health interventions, represent a wealth of information about near-term future mortality and morbidity. METHODS: Life table methods were used to calculate the impact of projected changes in mortality and activity limitation rates on life expectancy and expected disability years. RESULTS: Meeting the mortality objectives would increase life expectancy at birth by 1.5 to 2.1 years, raising life expectancy to 76.6 to 77.2 years. In addition, meeting the target for disability from chronic conditions would increase the number of years of life without activity limitations from 66.8 years to 69.3-69.7 years. If the targets for coronary heart disease and unintentional injury were changed to reflect recent trends, a greater improvement in life expectancy at birth would be achieved: from 1.8 to 2.7 years to 76.9 to 77.8 years. CONCLUSION: Meeting the targets would have an important demographic impact. Including changes in the coronary heart disease and injuries targets, life expectancy in the year 2000 would be above the middle of the ranges used in current Census Bureau projections.
Historical demographic data extending back approximately 300 years were analysed to determine the demographic and genetic impact of in-migrants to an endogamous Swiss Alpine village. In-migrants were involved in only 14% of the marriages recorded in the village. In addition, only slightly more than 50% of the in-migrants were represented in the 1970 gene pool of the village. However, in-migrants accounted for nearly 38% of this gene pool. This seemingly anomalous situation can be explained by the fact that while the fertility of in-migrants and the marriage rate among their children are reduced (accounting for the near 50% "drop-our rate" of in-migrants from the gene pool), the fertility of the children of in-migrants and the marriage rate among the grandchildren of in-migrants are increased relative to village natives (accounting for the high proportion of genes in the gene pool ultimately attributable to in-migrants). Our results clearly demonstrate that although this community forms an endogamous population, it is definitely not a genetic isolate. Other investigators are cautioned against automatic invocation of the simplifying (and, thus, extremely tempting) assumption that endogamy is equivalent to genetic isolation.
The objective of the computer simulation model described here is to project, for periods up to one or more decades, the annual incidence and prevalence of HIV infection and AIDS in a population with given epidemiological, behavioural and demorgraphic characteristics. In addition, the epidemic's impact on a range of demographic variables is calculated. The epidemiological components of the model use a compartmental approach and they are described with sets of linear differential equations. The demographic framework in which the epidemiological components are integrated, is based on a standard cohort component method of population projection. The simulated population is stratified by age, gender, sexual behaviour, marital status and infection/disease status. The concluding section provides an illustrative application of the model to a Central African population. In this hypothetical simulation covering the period from 1975 to 2000, HIV prevalence in the adult population rises from 0 to 21 per cent. By the end of the projection period mortality is about double the level that would have prevailed in the absence of the epidemic, but, owing to the very high birth rates that prevail in most of Africa, the growth rate of the population remains substantially positive.
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In response to concerns about the adverse consequences of rapid population growth, family planning programs have been implemented in many developing countries. The aim of the present study is to assess the impact of this programmatic approach on long-range population growth. The result of a new and hypothetical population projection indicates that in the absence of family planning programs the population of the developing world could be expected to reach 14.6 billion in the year 2100 instead of the 10 billion that is currently projected by the World Bank. Despite the apparent success of existing interventions, fertility control is far from complete, as many women continue to bear unwanted births. To assess the impact of this unintended childbearing a second hypothetical projection is made. With perfect implementation of reproductive preferences, the population size of the developing world in 2100 would be reduced by an estimated 2.2 billion below the current projection. Further strengthening of family planning programs and improvements in birth control technology are therefore likely to provide important demographic benefits.
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Recent evidence suggests that the adult HIV-1 incubation period may be shorter in some sub-Saharan African populations than in Western populations. In this article we use mathematical-model-based simulations to show that, other things being equal, a shorter incubation period can result in smaller but more pronounced HIV-1 epidemics and faster, more acute, changes in demographic features, such as adult mortality, orphanhood and population structure. Empirical studies of orphanhood reveal similar patterns to those found in the simulations, but suggest that migration patterns and structural factors can give rise to greater concentrations of orphans in areas of relatively low HIV-1 prevalence.
"The author presents three scenarios for the future evolution of the number of households [in Canada], and analyses the results of these projections according to type and size of households and age of the household head. Particular emphasis is given to the impact of population growth on the evolution of households." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)
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"Socio-demographic change in inner Stockholm [Sweden] is analyzed using information by individual years, 1970-1990, for total population, net migration and age groups (total and by sex) and by five-year intervals for marital status (total and by sex). The results support the reurbanization model and point to dramatic shifts in inner-city population according to age structure and marital status."
"Migration is much more than a simple transfer of individuals from one region to another.... It also implies a transfer of 'years to be lived' and 'children to be born'. Rogers' multidimensional demographic model allows one to measure such an induced impact. The results obtained show that, in the case of interprovincial migration in Canada, this induced impact is far from being proportional to the direct impact in terms of individuals transferred." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
OBJECTIVES: To describe recent mortality trends in rural Zimbabwe and to assess the impact of HIV-1 infection. METHOD: Comparative, cross-sectional, retrospective, demographic survey with 1-year follow-up. Parallel HIV-1 surveillance. Comparison of results with 1992 national census and vital registration data and results from mathematical model-based population projections. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Residents of 929 (745 revisited in 1995) households in two rural areas of Manicaland Province, Zimbabwe, with contrasting HIV-1 prevalence: Honde and Rusitu valleys. Subjects gave information on parental survival for 2320 resident children. Female residents aged 13-49 years (n = 1237) provided information on birth histories and child survival. Consenting women attending local antenatal clinics (n = 487) provided blood samples for HIV-1 screening and demographic information. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: HIV-1 prevalence in pregnant women; per capita death registration rates; incidence of parental death for children aged under 8 years; infant mortality and age-specific death probabilities. RESULTS: HIV-1 prevalence was high in each study area. Death registration and age-specific mortality have begun to rise. The largest increases were seen in the area of higher HIV-1 prevalence (Honde) and among younger adults, particularly men. Incidence of parental death was observed to be rising. Increases in registered deaths were concentrated among HIV-1-associated causes. CONCLUSIONS: The observed increases in mortality by age, sex and cause of death were consistent with those expected early in a severe HIV-1 epidemic, on the basis of mathematical model projections and observations elsewhere in Africa. Further rises in mortality, particularly among women and young children, and consequent increases in orphanhood, are to be expected in rural areas of Zimbabwe.
This paper evaluates a study fielded in Bangladesh in 1975 to test the hypothesis that ubiquitous availability of pills and condoms in a rural, traditional, noncontracepting population would increase contraceptive use and reduce fertility. Treatment and comparison areas were designated in Matlab, an area with accurate and complete demographic data. Use prevalence peaked at 18 percent in the first three months of the project and declined thereafter. Project activities continued until 1977. Results show that between-treatment fertility differentials were 10 percent in the first year of program impact, but that effects dissipated with time.