[Use of birth expectations for population forecasting].
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Demography↗
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Can we believe recent data on birth expectations in the United States?
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Adult↗
An equation for computing expected birth measurements (including birthweight) for the Turkish population (based on pregnancy characteristics).
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Adolescent↗
[Sex differential in life expectancy at birth in Japan: (2) trends in sex differential in life expectancy at birth from 1920 to 1990].
Sex differentials in life expectancy at birth in Japan are analyzed for the period 1920 to 1990. The results show that there was a general increase in differences in mortality by sex over time. "The sex differential in age-specific death rate in 0-4 year age group (particularly age 0) explained most of the sex differential in life expectancy at birth before 1947. After 1950, the age group of 60-79 played a major role in the sex differential in life expectancy at birth. It is noteworthy that female mortality exceeded male mortality in age groups of 2-41 before 1930. Consequently, excess of female mortality reduced the sex differential in life expectancy at birth at that period. As for the sex differential in mortality rates by causes of death, tuberculosis, pregnancy and childbirth related disease exerted a great influence...before 1940. Recently, malignant neoplasms, heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and accidents [have] become leading contributors to the sex differentials in life expectancy at birth." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
Age Factors↗
Planned early birth versus expectant management (waiting) for prelabour rupture of membranes at term (37 weeks or more).
BACKGROUND: Prelabour rupture of membranes at term is managed expectantly or by elective birth, but it is not clear if waiting for birth to occur spontaneously is better than intervening. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of planned early birth versus expectant management for women with term prelabour rupture of membranes on fetal, infant and maternal wellbeing. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group Trials Register (November 2004), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library, Issue 4, 2004), MEDLINE (1966 to November 2004) and EMBASE (1974 to November 2004). SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised or quasi-randomised trials of planned early birth compared with expectant management in women with prelabour rupture of membranes at 37 weeks' gestation or more. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently applied eligibility criteria, assessed trial quality and extracted data. A random-effects model was used. MAIN RESULTS: Twelve trials (total of 6814 women) were included. Planned management was generally induction with oxytocin or prostaglandin, with one trial using homoeopathic caulophyllum. Overall, no differences were detected for mode of birth between planned and expectant groups: relative risk (RR) of caesarean section 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 1.08 (12 trials, 6814 women); RR of operative vaginal birth 0.98, 95% 0.84 to 1.16 (7 trials, 5511 women). Significantly fewer women in the planned compared with expectant management groups had chorioamnionitis (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.97; 9 trials, 6611 women) or endometritis (RR 0.30, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.74; 4 trials, 445 women). No difference was seen for neonatal infection (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.12; 9 trials, 6406 infants). However, fewer infants under planned management went to neonatal intensive or special care compared with expectant management (RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.92, number needed to treat 20; 5 trials, 5679 infants). In a single trial, significantly more women with planned management viewed their care more positively than those expectantly managed (RR of "nothing liked" 0.45, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.54; 5031 women). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Planned management (with methods such as oxytocin or prostaglandin) reduces the risk of some maternal infectious morbidity without increasing caesarean sections and operative vaginal births. Fewer infants went to neonatal intensive care under planned management although no differences were seen in neonatal infection rates. Since planned and expectant management may not be very different, women need to have appropriate information to make informed choices.
Cesarean Section↗
[Income inequality, corruption, and life expectancy at birth in Mexico].
OBJECTIVE: To ascertain if the effect of income inequality on life expectancy at birth in Mexico is mediated by corruption, used as a proxy of social capital. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An ecological study was carried out with the 32 Mexican federative entities. Global and by sex correlations between life expectancy at birth were estimated by federative entity with the Gini coefficient, the Corruption and Good Government Index, the percentage of Catholics, and the percentage of the population speaking indigenous language. Robust linear regressions, with and without instrumental variables, were used to explore if corruption acts as intermediate variable in the studied relationship. RESULTS: Negative correlations with Spearman's rho near to -0.60 (p < 0.05) and greater than -0.66 (p < 0.05) between life expectancy at birth, the Gini coefficient and the population speaking indigenous language, respectively, were observed. Moreover, the Corruption and Good Government Index correlated with men's life expectancy at birth with Spearman's rho -0.3592 (p < 0.05). Regressions with instruments were more consistent than conventional ones and they show a strong negative effect (p < 0.05) of income inequality on life expectancy at birth. This effect was greater among men. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest a negative effect of income inequality on life expectancy at birth in Mexico, mediated by corruption levels and other related cultural factors.
Aged↗
Analysis of sex, age and disease factors contributing to prolonged life expectancy at birth, in cases of malignant neoplasms in Japan.
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to examine the contribution made by the change in mortality from malignant neoplasms to the life expectancy at birth, observed during the years 1965-1995 in Japan. METHODS: We used data on the population and number of deaths by cause, age and sex in 1965, 1975, 1985 and 1995. The contribution of different ages and causes of death to the change in life expectancy were examined with the method developed by Pollard. RESULTS: We found that, among all causes, the decrease of mortality from stomach cancer led to the greatest improvement in life expectancy for both sexes. On the other hand, negative contributions were seen with cancers of many sites, such as cancer of the intestine, liver and lung for males, and cancer of the intestine, gallbladder, lung and breast for females. Recently, the contributing years of all cancers have been negative because of the increase in mortality from malignant neoplasms. In addition, increase of death from malignant neoplasms in middle-aged and elderly people negatively influenced the life expectancy at birth. CONCLUSIONS: Female cancer influenced the improvement in life expectancy at birth. Cancer for males, however, contributed little to improvement of life expectancy at birth except for a little prolongation of life expectancy at birth during the years 1965-1975. To develop a public health policy, the contributing years to life expectancy at birth can be a useful indication in evaluating the impact of death from various diseases. It is necessary to analyze the contribution made by various causes of death to the changes of life expectancy at birth.
Adolescent↗
Increase in life expectancy at birth in Japan: some implications for variable patterns of decrease in mortality.
"The characteristics of the increase in life expectancy at birth...in Japan were analyzed using the life tables of developed countries in which the values of [life expectancy at birth] were almost the same. When the decrease in age-specific probability of dying...and its contribution to total gain in [life expectancy at birth] in Japan were compared to those of other developed countries, the decline in [age-specific probability of dying] in prime, middle and old age groups accounts for much of the change; the decrease in this variable for males aged 50 years and over accounted for 35% of the recent increase in [life expectancy at birth]. Well-organized medical care and public services are discussed in relation to this unique and unusually rapid increase in [life expectancy at birth] for the Japanese population."
Age Factors↗
Contributions of mortality changes by age group and selected causes of death to the increase in Japanese life expectancy at birth from 1950 to 2000.
The purpose of this study is to analyze contributions of mortality change by age group and selected causes of death to the increase in life expectancy at birth from 1950 to 2000 in Japan, which has the longest longevity in the world. Using mortality data from Japanese vital statistics from 1950 to 2000, we analyzed contributions of mortality change by age group and selected causes of death to the increase in life expectancy at birth by the method of decomposition of changes and calculated age-adjusted death rates for selected causes of death. Gastroenteritis, tuberculosis and pneumonia largely contributed to an increase in life expectancy in childhood and in the young in the 1950s and 1960s. The largest contributing disease changed from tuberculosis and pneumonia in earlier decades to cerebrovascular diseases in the 1970s. The largest contributing age group also shifted to older age groups. Age-adjusted death rate for cerebrovascular diseases in 2000 was one fifth of the 1965 level. Cerebrovascular diseases contributed to an increase in life expectancy at birth of 2.9 years in males and 3.1 years in females from 1970 to 2000. In the 1990s, the largest contributing age group, both among males and among females, was the 75-84 age group. Of the selected causes of death, heart diseases other than ischemic heart disease became the largest contributor to the increase in life expectancy at birth. Unlike cerebrovascular diseases, cancer and ischemic heart disease contributed little to change in life expectancy at birth over the past 50 years. In conclusion, although mortality from ischemic heart disease has not increased since 1970 and remained low compared with levels in western countries, mortality from cerebrovascular diseases has dramatically decreased since the mid-1960s in Japan. This gave Japan the longest life expectancy at birth in the world. It is necessary to study future trends in life expectancy at birth in Japan.
Adolescent↗
[The impact of changes in age-related and cause-related mortality on life expectancy at birth in the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil, in the 1990s].
This study aimed to analyze the impact of changes in age-related and cause-related mortality on life expectancy at birth in the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil, in the 1990s. Data were obtained from the Mortality Information System (SIM) for the three-year periods 1989/1990/1991 and 1998/1999/2000. Infant mortality rates and specific mortality rates for individuals > or = 1 year of age were calculated by gender and cause of death. The Pollard method was used to disaggregate the contributions by mortality from different causes and in different ages to life expectancy at birth. The age groups that contributed the most to the increase in life expectancy at birth were 0-1 year and > or = 70 years. The causes of death that most contributed to this increase were chronic non-communicable diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases, in the age brackets above 35 years, and neonatal diseases in the < 1-year bracket. Finally, there were a high proportion of deaths from ill-defined causes, indicating that the true cause-related mortality structure in the State is still unknown.
Adolescent↗
Influence of death from circulatory diseases on life expectancy at birth in Japan.
This study aims to evaluate the contribution of the change in circulatory diseases mortality to the life expectancy at birth observed during the years 1955-1995 in Japan. We used data on the population and the number of deaths by cause, age, and sex in 1955, 1965, 1975, 1985, and 1995. The contribution of different ages and causes of death to the change in life expectancy were examined with the method developed by Pollard. We found that the reduction in circulatory diseases mortality contributed to the improvements in life expectancy for both sexes during the decade 1975-1985. Much of this was due to the decrease in cerebrovascular disease. In the years 1985-1995, however, the contribution of cerebrovascular disease decreased in both sexes, while that of heart disease grew to become the largest of any single condition. By age, the contribution of all circulatory diseases increased among the elderly in recent years. The contribution of the change in circulatory diseases mortality to the life expectancy at birth has increased in recent years but seems to have reached a plateau. The weight against improvements in life expectancy in middle-aged people has shown little change, so that reducing the mortality rate in middle-aged people is now a major issue.
Adolescent↗
Health expectancy in Canada, late 1970s: demographic, regional, and social dimensions.
Based on estimates of activity restriction from the Canada Health Survey, institutional data on long-term care, and survival data from vital statistics, we have calculated an index of health expectancy (life expectancy in each state of health), and a summary of these indices which we have called quality-adjusted life expectancy. At birth, expected years of long-term institutionalization were 0.8 for men and 1.5 for women. Expected years of activity restriction not involving long-term institutionalization were 10.8 for men and 14.0 for women; 3.0 of the expected years of activity restriction for men and 1.3 of these years for women were in the most severe category of restriction (unable to do major activity). For both sexes together, quality-adjusted life expectancy was 1.4 years greater in Ontario and the Prairies than in the Atlantic region, 3.2 years greater in Canada's three largest cities than in rural areas and small towns, and 7.7 years greater among persons from high-income families than among persons from low-income families.
Activities of Daily Living↗
[Life expectancy at birth and mortality in Brazil, 1999: exploratory analysis of regional differences].
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the inequalities found using health indicators in the states and regions of Brazil, according to 1999 socioeconomic and demographic indicators. METHODS: An exploratory ecological cross-sectional study was carried out. The units of analysis were Brazilian states (n = 27) and regions (n = 5). Descriptive measures of inequality were calculated. Pearson's correlation and also linear regression analysis were used to identify associations between health indicators and selected socio-economic and demographic indicators. The health indicators analyzed were: life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rate, mortality rate for children < 5 years due to acute diarrheal diseases and to acute respiratory infections, and deaths due to homicides and traffic accidents. RESULTS: Important gains were seen in life expectancy at birth over the 1991-1999 period, especially for males. There was a trend towards larger gains in states that had had lower life expectancy at birth in 1991, which produced greater homogeneity across Brazil in this indicator in recent years. The infant mortality rate decreased by 28% between 1991 and 1999. However, this indicator still varies widely among the regions--from 52.5 per 1,000 live births in the northeast to 17.1 per 1,000 in the south--and among states--from 64.0 per 1,000 in Alagoas to 15.1 per 1,000 in Rio Grande do Sul. With respect to children < 5 years, the mortality rate due to acute diarrheal diseases was equal to or higher than the national median (4.1 per 10,000) in all the north-eastern states, and the mortality rate due to acute respiratory infections was equal to or higher than the national median (10.8 per 10,000) in all the southern, southeastern, and central-western states. The mortality rates (standardized by sex and age) due to traffic accidents and to homicides in 1999 were 17.7 and 26.0 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. Extreme values were found in some states for mortality due to homicide (57.8 per 100,000 in Pernambuco) and traffic accidents (54.5 per 100,000 in Roraima). The mortality rate due to homicide was strongly associated with urbanization (P = 0.001). Higher mortality rates due to traffic accidents were associated with lower poverty levels (beta = -0.93; P < 0.001), lower literacy rates (beta = -1.16; P = 0.005), and larger population growth over the past decade (beta = 3.10; P = 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of health inequality in Brazil indicates a polarization among regions and states as well as a juxtaposition of diseases associated with under-development and diseases linked to development, suggesting the need for a health system that is committed to addressing these issues.
Adolescent↗
Adding years to life: effect of avoidable mortality on life expectancy at birth.
STUDY OBJECTIVE: The aim was to determine the number of years that could be gained by preventing avoidable deaths. DESIGN: The study arose from the concept of avoidable causes of death and life expectancy at birth. Four abbreviated life tables were computed. The first included all causes of death; the second excluded all avoidable causes of death; the third and fourth excluded respectively primary and secondary avoidable causes of death. SETTING: Mortality and population data were taken from Mortality Statistics Offices in Valencia Region, Spain. MAIN RESULTS: Life expectancy at birth (LEB) was 75.7 years. After removing all avoidable deaths, LEB increased by 1.74 years. This improvement is attributed to avoidable deaths by primary prevention (1.09 years) and avoidable death by secondary prevention (0.37 year). CONCLUSIONS: According to these results the greatest improvement in LEB would be gained by primary prevention.
Cause of Death↗
[Women's empowerment and life expectancy at birth in Mexico].
OBJECTIVES: To assess the effect of women's empowerment (WE) on life expectancy at birth (LEB) in the federative states of Mexico and to compare the results of measuring WE with various compound indicators that reflect, to a greater or lesser degree, an individual or population focus. METHODS: This was an ecological study conducted in Mexico's 32 federative states. We estimated the correlations between overall and sex-specific LEB on the one hand, and a measure of gender empowerment (MGE), the index of women's ability to make decisions within the household (WADH), the index of women's autonomy (IWA), income inequality, certain aspects of the physical environment, the proportion of the population who spoke an indigenous language, and the net migratory rate on the other. By using robust regressions, we studied the effect on LEB of MGE, IWA, and WADH, after mutually adjusting for other independent variables. RESULTS: A very strong inverse correlation (-0.93) was found between overall LEB and factors of the physical environment linked to population vulnerability and biodiversity. Significant direct and inverse correlations were also found between LEB on the one hand and WADH, IWA, net migratory rate, the percentage of the population that spoke an indigenous language, and the Gini coefficient on the other. Multiple robust regressions showed inverse associations between MGE and LEB in women (beta: -1.44; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: -2.71 to -0.17). WAI was positively associated with LEB in men (beta: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.01 to 1.75) and women (beta: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.03 to 1.30). CONCLUSION: The use of MGE as a surrogate for WE failed to reveal a positive effect of WE on LEB in Mexico. It is necessary to review the components that make up MGE and the relevance of using such a measure in different contexts. WAI showed a greater association with LEB and its effect was greater among men. This indicator made it possible to measure WE in Mexico and its use is recommended, as long as there are no other indicators available for capturing more effectively all the components that affect WE.
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Geographical variation in life expectancy at birth in England and Wales is largely explained by deprivation.
STUDY OBJECTIVE: To describe the population mortality profile of England and Wales by deprivation and in each government office region (GOR) during 1998, and to quantify the influence of geography and deprivation in determining life expectancy. DESIGN: Construction of life tables describing age specific mortality rates and life expectancy at birth from death registrations and estimated population counts. Life tables were created for (a) quintiles of income deprivation based on the income domain score of the index of multiple deprivation 2000, (b) each GOR and Wales, and (c) every combination of deprivation and geography. SETTING: England and Wales.PATIENTS/ PARTICIPANTS: Residents of England and Wales, 1998. MAIN RESULTS: Life expectancy at birth varies with deprivation quintile and is highest in the most affluent groups. The differences are mainly attributable to differences in mortality rates under 75 years of age. Regional life expectancies display a clear north-south gradient. Linear regression analysis shows that deprivation explains most of the geographical variation in life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS: Geographical patterns of life expectancy identified within these data for England and Wales in 1998 are mainly attributable to variations in deprivation status as defined by the IMD 2000 income domain score.
Adolescent↗
Pregnancies complicated by idiopathic intrauterine growth retardation. Severity of growth failure, neonatal morbidity and two-year infant neurodevelopmental outcome.
We evaluated the impact of the severity of intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) measured as the proportion of expected birth weight (birth weight x 100/median birth weight) on short-term neonatal complications and two-year infant neurodevelopmental outcome. The study was carried out on 236 singleton pregnancies complicated by idiopathic IUGR. The rates of bradycardia, respiratory distress syndrome, hypocalcemia, ventilatory support, apneic crises, transient neurologic signs and poor neonatal outcome (neonatal death or cerebral palsy) significantly correlated with the increasing severity of IUGR. In logistic regression analysis more severely growth retarded infants (< 67.5% of expected birth weight) had higher rates of bradycardia, respiratory distress syndrome, hypocalcemia and bacterial sepsis when compared with those less severely affected (84-67.5% of expected birth weight). In pregnancies complicated by idiopathic IUGR, most short-term neonatal complications are inversely related to the severity of growth failure as evaluated by the proportion of expected birth weight.
Adult↗
Increase in life expectancy at birth in Japan: some implications for variable patterns of decrease in mortality.
The characteristics of the increase in life expectancy at birth (eo) in Japan were analyzed using the life tables of developed countries in which the values of eo were almost the same. When the decrease in age-specific probability of dying (qx) and its contribution to total gain in eo in Japan were compared to those of other developed countries, the decline in qx in prime, middle and old age groups accounts for much of the change; the decrease in this variable for males aged 50 years and over accounted for 35% of the recent increase in eo. Well-organized medical care and public services are discussed in relation to this unique and unusually rapid increase in eo for the Japanese population.
Age Factors↗