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[Comments on theory development in "public health". Berlin Public Health Research Committee--partial projects "Goals and goal indicators for public health in East and West Berlin"].

Due to extensive government funding, public health research in Germany presently goes through times of revival and relative prosperity. The multiprofessionality of its background, its nearly disrupted scientific tradition in Germany, and the idiosyncrasies in their understanding of "health" among different professions impede the development of a common scientific identity. This paper underscores the importance of semantic precision and the avoidance of pretentious, overstrained theories in favour of pragmatic scientific approaches. Complementary to its action-oriented rationale, the German public health community should more than ever devote itself to health objectives and outcomes.

Berlin↗

["Public health goals"--concepts this side of utopia? Berlin Public Health Research Organization--divided project "Goals and goal indicators for East and West Berlin Public Health"].

Objectives or targets for health have been presented by the World Health Organisation as well as a number of national health administrations. Health objectives are intended as guidelines attracting the commitment of decision makers and health professionals. As a "normative health indicator" a health objective should quantify the desired progress and give the time by which it could be attained. The article discusses general and methodical aspects which are thought to be relevant in identifying and quantifying health objectives for a population.

Adult↗

[The Lee-Carter model of the prognosis of mortality in Germany. Berlin Public Health Research Group--partial project "Goals and Goal Indicators for Public Health in East and West Berlin"].

A model for forecasting mortality developed by Lee and Carter is applied to data of West Germany. The logs of the age-specific death rates are modeled as a linear function of an unobserved mortality index using the singular value decomposition method. The forecasts are based on projections of all individual trends of the mortality rates. Applied to life expectancy at birth between 1969 and 1992 the model implies an increase of 2.2 years in life expectancy for men and 2.4 years for women in 2002.

Adolescent↗