The accident-prone patient--are accidents ever accidents?
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Logistic regression was applied to accident-related data collected from traffic police records in order to examine the contribution of several variables to accident severity. A total of 560 subjects involved in serious accidents were sampled. Accident severity (the dependent variable) in this study is a dichotomous variable with two categories, fatal and non-fatal. Therefore, each of the subjects sampled was classified as being in either a fatal or non-fatal accident. Because of the binary nature of this dependent variable, a logistic regression approach was found suitable. Of nine independent variables obtained from police accident reports, two were found most significantly associated with accident severity, namely, location and cause of accident. A statistical interpretation is given of the model-developed estimates in terms of the odds ratio concept. The findings show that logistic regression as used in this research is a promising tool in providing meaningful interpretations that can be used for future safety improvements in Riyadh.
AIMS: To evaluate the effects of changes in aggregate alcohol consumption on fatal motor vehicle traffic accidents, accidental falls, and other accidents in 14 western European countries after 1950, and to compare traditional beer, wine and spirits countries. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The countries were sorted into three groups. Gender-specific, age-adjusted annual mortality rates (15-69 years) were analysed in relation to per capita alcohol consumption, utilizing the Box-Jenkins technique for time series analysis. All series were different to remove long-term trends. The results of the analyses of individual countries were pooled within each group of countries to increase the statistical power. MEASUREMENTS: Overall accident mortality data for 5-year age groups were converted to age-adjusted mortality rates for the age group 15-69 years, using a European standard population. Data on per capita alcohol consumption were converted to consumption per inhabitant 15 years and older. FINDINGS: For male accidental falls, the analyses uncovered a statistically significant association with alcohol consumption in northern and central Europe, but not in southern Europe. Among females the association was insignificant in all regions. For male traffic accidents, significant relationships were uncovered in central and southern Europe, but not in northern Europe. Among females the effect was significant only in central Europe. For the remaining fatal accidents a significant relationship was found for north European males only. CONCLUSION: The association between aggregate alcohol consumption and rates of fatal accidents is mainly due to traffic accidents in central and southern Europe, and to falls and other accidents in northern Europe.
The acute psychological reactions of 101 train drivers to on-the-track accidents were studied by means of clinical interviews and questionnaires (Impact of Event Scale, GHQ-20 and a questionnaire addressing stress symptoms, pre-accident expectancies and worries). More than half of the train drivers reported moderate to high intrusive distress (mean 11.3) within hours to days after the accident but only 1/3 reported symptoms of acute psychophysiological arousal. Intrusive symptoms related to visual impressions were most frequently reported. Avoidance was less prevalent (mean 8.8). Clinical interviews, relationship between pre-accident worries and severity of the acute responses and positive correlation between GHQ-scores relating to the fortnight preceding the accident and IES-intrusion scores, suggest that premorbid variables may influence the stress response. Involvement in more than two previous accidents invoked a feeling of vulnerability and produced stronger acute responses. Post-accident experiences involving various personal contacts did not correlate with the stress responses in this study and only a few drivers experienced such events in a negative way. Denial of the possibility of being involved in accidents was not associated with increased risk of strong acute responses, indicating that denial does not predict poor outcome in healthy persons exposed to situations where possibility of avoiding the event is outside the control of the person.
In a survey of occupational accident cases admitted to Malmö General Hospital during a period in 1974, interviews were carried out with the accident victims, and, at their work places, with their fellow-workers, safety delegates, and management representatives as well. The interviewees were asked to express their views on aspects of the occupation environment, which might have had a bearing on the causes of the accident in question, for instance noise, harmful substances, physical and mental stress and accident risks. The results showed wide variations between the views of the four groups regarding the same environment situation and the actual accident. Often the explanations were rather descriptions of "supernatural" concepts in other words. This means that in this field there is a great need for an objective instrument for the analysis of accidents and their circumstances. There is no such instrument available today and there is a growing need to develop accident research and its methods, as well as of a practical instrument for the safety work. There is also a need for a more qualitative analysis of accidents. To this end we used a model developed by J. Surry (4) and later modified by the Swedish Work Environment Fund (5). A further development of this model is proposed.
The present study is based on an analysis of routinely submitted reports of occupational accidents experienced by the workers of industrial enterprises under the jurisdiction of Kagoshima Labor Standard Office during a 5-year period 1983 to 1987. Officially notified injuries serious enough to keep employees away from their job for work at least 4 days were utilized in this study. Data was classified so as to give an observed frequency distribution for workers having any specified number of accidents. Also, the accident rate which is an indicator of the risk of accident was compared among different occupations, between age groups and between the sexes. Results obtained are as follows; 1) For the combined total of 6,324 accident cases for 8 types of occupation (Construction, Transportation, Mining & Quarrying, Forestry, Food manufacture, Lumber & Woodcraft, Manufacturing industry and Other business), the number of those who had at least one accident was 6,098, of which 5,837 were injured only once, 208 twice, 21 three times and 2 four times. When occupation type was fixed, however, the number of workers having one, two, three and four times of accidents were 5,895, 182, 19 and 2, respectively. This suggests that some workers are likely to have experienced repeated accidents in more than one type of occupation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
All patients who were admitted within one year to the Department of Traumatology of the Innsbruck University Hospital as a result of an accident were included in this epidemiological study: a total of 1611 patients. 18.9% (n = 304) of these patients were injured as a result of a work-related accident and the remaining 81.2% (n = 1307) were involved in accidents due to other causes. Within the group of patients involved in work-related accidents, alcohol consumption was more frequent in males (13.3%) than in females (1.8%) (p = 0.016) and clearly lower than in patients injured by accidents due to other causes. In work--related accidents we found a correlation between the educational standard of patients and the frequency of alcohol consumption. The mean blood alcohol concentration was lower in patients involved in work-related accidents (0.76 +/- 0.58 g/l) compared to other injuries (1.63 g/l +/- 0.74 g/l). No correlations were found concerning benzodiazepine use and demographic variables and all measured benzodiazepine plasma levels were within the therapeutic range.
The over-involvement of elderly drivers in collisions has a potentially adverse effect on highway safety. The question for most experts in traffic research is whether we can predict the individual risk of accidents and which variables are the best predictors, especially for this population. For a better understanding of the elderly drivers' problems, this study aimed to describe the most common types of accidents in the elderly population of drivers living in Quebec (> or = 65 years of age). The second objective of the study was to analyse the relationship between previous accidents or convictions and the risk of subsequent accidents. The results show that: (1) elderly drivers are characterised by error accidents involving more than one car, especially at intersections, (2) prior accidents are a better predictor for accident risk than prior convictions and (3) these trends steadily increase with each age group (drivers 65 years old to 80 years or more). The results are discussed in relation to the literature on risk behaviour of the elderly drivers.
OBJECTIVE: To show whether the rate of occupational accidents is decreasing in Turkey. METHODS: Data on incidence and deaths due to occupational accidents in Turkey during the period 1970-2000 were obtained and evaluated at the Department of Public Health, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey. The data were collected in January 2003. The occupational accident rates were analyzed by morbidity, mortality and case fatality rates. The change in each variable over years was tested by trend analysis methodology. A regression analysis was performed on data on 3-point moving averages. RESULTS: The morbidity decreases significantly over the last 30 years (p<0.01) with a slope of -0.003. The correlation of the morbidity tendency due to years was 0.995 (p<0.01) and the total variance descriptive rate was 0.991. In respect to mortality, the variation due to years was declining (0.00001, p<0.01). The correlation of the model was 0.950 (p<0.01) and brings out the total variance to 0.903. The trend analysis model can be explained meaningfully in respect of constant and slope (p<0.01). In respect of fatality the variance over the years was 0.00029 (p<0.01). The correlation of the model was 0.934 (p<0.01) and brings out the total variance of 0.872. CONCLUSION: The main reason of the decrease of occupational accidents was probably due to unreported accidents, which do not cause injury. Reasons for underreporting of minor accidents should be investigated and this point should be taken into consideration when planning an occupational accident prevention programs.
In a one-year prospective investigation in 1985, all bicycle accidents in Denmark were registered. The circumstances of the accident were recorded. All injuries were classified in the AIS and the ISS scales. After one year, the patients were contacted and sick leave and sequelae were registered. A total of 576 patients (320 men and 256 women), were treated after bicycle accidents. Bicycle accidents were seen most frequently in the ages from 5 to 19 years. The accidents were distributed uniformly over the week and occurred most frequently in the summer. 392 of the accidents were single-accidents, and the majority had used a bicycle-track if possible. Collision with other road users and bad road conditions were responsible for 41%, and defects in the bicycle for 9%, mainly on handlebars, front fork, front wheel, gear and chain. Two were admitted dead, and 114 were admitted to hospital (20%) for median four days. Eleven per cent had sustained serious lesions (fractures or lesions of the head). 556 had an AIS-score less or equal to three and un 387 the AIS-score was one. 561 had an ISS-score less than ten, five between ten and 75 and two had 75. Eight patients could not be classified. The patients AIS score is determined as the highest score of an injured region. AIS score of 6 is fatal. The ISS score is the addition of the square of the 3 highest AIS values. ISS of 75 is fatal. AIS is thus a value of the most serious lesion and ISS is a value of how traumatized the patient is.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
The European major accident reporting system (MARS) was created within the framework of European Union (EU) directive 82/501, the so-called "SEVESO" directive, and in order to register all the major industrial accidents notified to the European Union authorities from the member states. Statistical analysis of these accidents offers significant data to the understanding and prevention of industrial accidents. This paper makes an analysis of some characteristics of major accidents in the petrochemical sector included in MARS. The statistical analysis focused on the main categorization fields of the MARS short reports and additionally a refinement of the immediate causes of major accidents with focus on the organizational factors was attempted through the details provided in the full reports of the database.