Development and accuracy of projections of population and households in the United States.
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Age Factors↗
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Projections of population growth at the older ages.
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Aged↗
Demographics of Military dependent children and adolescents: projected patient population shift.
The United States government provides health care for one of the largest beneficiary populations in the world. Approximately 796,500 (35%) of the 2.27 million dependent children of uniformed services personnel are adolescents (13 to 19 years old). Although the majority of dependent children are dependents of active duty personnel (74.7%), close to half of the adolescents (47.7%) are dependents of retired personnel. Recent geopolitical world changes and a perceived decreased threat to national security have led to a planned 25% reduction of the active duty force by 1996. The mean age of children beneficiaries will rise as a result. Pediatricians in the military and civilian contract physicians need to prepare for increased health care of older pediatric patients, particularly adolescents.
Adolescent↗
Demographic characteristics of ophthalmic outpatients at the Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital.
To investigate demographic aspects of the access to services at the Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital (RVEEH), routine registration records on outpatients were linked to the population of state health regions, the distribution of ophthalmologists and projected population growth. In the six-month period September 1990 to March 1991, 19,339 persons came to the hospital (Emergency Department or Outpatients) at least once with an eye problem. Most (93%) lived in the Melbourne metropolitan area. The largest group (40%) came from Health Region 6, the Western Metropolitan region, which also has the lowest density of ophthalmologists in Victoria (1.6 per 100,000 total population, excluding ophthalmologists in the central business district of Melbourne). In the sample, 7243 patients (37%) were aged 65 years or older. Of these older patients, 75% had multiple visits to the hospital for a given illness, compared with 30% in younger patients (P < 0.01). By application of projected age-group growth rates in the Victorian population to the current profile of RVEEH outpatients, we forecast a 32% increase in the number of outpatients attending the hospital over the 15 years to 2006, 10% more than the projected population growth of 22% over this period.
Adolescent↗
A comparison of two methods to project regional and state populations for the U.S.
"This paper is a comparison of two contrasting methods for projecting population at the regional and state levels. A projection of the U.S. Bureau of the Census employs standard demographic methods, while the population projection by Data Resources, Inc., is based on economic opportunity. The methodological differences between these two projections are discussed, and the projections for the year 2000 are compared....The U.S. Bureau of the Census projects population decline in the Northeast and rapid growth in the West while Data Resources, Inc., projects some population growth in the Northeast and less rapid growth in the West."
Americas↗
[The application of Markov chains to demographic projections in smaller geopolitical areas].
"This article deals with the use of Markov chains to project population in smaller geopolitical areas. The method consists of projecting only the relative distribution which, applied to a previous demographic projection, gives figures for the population by subregion. An algorithm is worked out, allowing for an estimate to be made of the transitional probabilities of the chain based on easily available data: the total population residing in two or more regions or states in only two specific moments. Once those probabilities have been determined, the projection of the probabilities and of the relative distribution is direct. This method is applied to the metropolitan zone of Mexico City, for which population and territorial extension are projected." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
Americas↗
[What will regional populations look like in 2015?].
The authors analyze the geographic implications for France of projected population growth up to the year 2015. "There would be a higher concentration of people in the Mediterranean and Paris area regions, while the Massif Central and the North-East quarter of the country, with the exception of Alsace, would see their populations fall. Migratory movements should help the Paris area to best resist the general aging in France. The fact that the Paris area attracts students and young working people contributes to both its demographic growth and its youthfulness compared with the rest of France. Conversely, the aging of the West will escalate if the arrival of people around retirement age continues." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND GER AND SPA)
Demography↗
[Population forecasts for the Netherlands after 1984].
The results of the most recent official population projections for the Netherlands are presented. The methods and assumptions used in preparing the projections are described, and three alternative projections are provided up to the year 2035. Projections by sex, age, and marital status are also discussed. "The population forecasting model applied belongs to the class of cohort-component models and its relevant components are fertility, mortality, external migration, administrative corrections, marriage of never-married persons, divorce, marriage of divorced persons, transition to widowhood and marriage of widowed persons...." (summary in ENG)
Age Distribution↗
Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model.
BACKGROUND: Existing theoretical models of the potential effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases do not account for social factors such as population increase, or interactions between climate variables. Our aim was to investigate the potential effects of global climate change on human health, and in particular, on the transmission of vector-borne diseases. METHODS: We modelled the reported global distribution of dengue fever on the basis of vapour pressure, which is a measure of humidity. We assessed changes in the geographical limits of dengue fever transmission, and in the number of people at risk of dengue by incorporating future climate change and human population projections into our model. FINDINGS: We showed that the current geographical limits of dengue fever transmission can be modelled with 89% accuracy on the basis of long-term average vapour pressure. In 1990, almost 30% of the world population, 1.5 billion people, lived in regions where the estimated risk of dengue transmission was greater than 50%. With population and climate change projections for 2085, we estimate that about 5-6 billion people (50-60% of the projected global population) would be at risk of dengue transmission, compared with 3.5 billion people, or 35% of the population, if climate change did not happen. INTERPRETATION: We conclude that climate change is likely to increase the area of land with a climate suitable for dengue fever transmission, and that if no other contributing factors were to change, a large proportion of the human population would then be put at risk.
Aedes↗
Demographic change and the future demand for public hospital care in Australia, 2005 to 2050.
BACKGROUND: Over the next 45 years the Australian population will age rapidly as the baby boomer cohort moves into retirement and then old age. As the population ages there will be substantial growth in the demand for hospital bed-days, placing a corresponding demand on infrastructure and staffing. METHODS: Australian Bureau of Statistics population projections to 2050 and Australian Institute of Health and Welfare public hospital bed-day data from 1993-94 to 2003-04 were used to develop models of future demand and examine the sensitivity of the results to model assumptions. RESULTS: Over the long term, demand for public hospital bed-days was projected to grow faster than population growth. By 2050, ageing will increase the demand for bed-days by between 70% and 130% depending on the underlying assumptions, and the proportion of bed-days devoted to older people will increase from under 50% in 2005 to over 70%. CONCLUSIONS: Ageing of the population will increase the demand for health services just as it will become harder to recruit health professionals as the large baby boomer cohort retires from the health workforce. Accordingly, we need to plan now to ensure future needs of the ageing population are met.
Adolescent↗
Prevalence of malnutrition using Z-scores and absolute values in children under five years of age in Utan village, Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria.
OBJECTIVE: To compare the use of Z scores and absolute measurements in determining the prevalence of malnutrition among under-five children in the Plateau State, Nigeria. DESIGN: A community based, cross sectional study of under-five children. SETTING: An urban slum, Utan village, Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria. POPULATION: The village has a projected population of 3,000 people; 15% of whom are under-fives. STUDY POPULATION: Four hundred and twenty six under-five children. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Absolute measures of weight for age, weight for height and height for age; and Z scores for the same indicators. INTERVENTION: Mass chemotherapy (antihelminths) and nutrition education were carried out after the study was done in 1993. RESULTS: Based on absolute measurements, 23.7% of the children had low weight for age; 34.9% of the under-fives were stunted (height for age), while 11.1% had low weight for height. Using Z-scores, 25.3% of the under-fives were malnourished based on weight for age, 37% were stunted (height for age), while 8.7% had low weight for height. CONCLUSION: Stunting is still prevalent in the under-five children surveyed in spite of the siting of the PHC clinic which offers promotive, preventive and curative services. Small scale industry could be set up to empower the women economically so that they can provide enough food for their households. A credit/loan scheme would also be beneficial. Emphasis should be placed on growth monitoring to help the women discover when the weight of their children is faltering. The use of oral rehydration therapy against diarrhoeal diseases and immunisation against the common childhood diseases that also affect the nutritional status of the children is important. Nutrition education and family planning programmes should be effectively organised for mothers.
Anthropometry↗
[[A critical period in the evolution of the population of Thailand]].
"The paper, based on population projections for Thailand...examines the growth and the structure of the Thai population between 1990 and 2115. The projections are prepared on the basis of the sex and age distribution of the 1990 population.... The study concludes that in order to maintain...economic and social prosperity, security and [prevent] the eradication of the Thai race, the government will have to raise fertility of the population at least up to the replacement level." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
Asia↗
Demographic disaggregation in the construction of regional econometric models: a statistical evaluation.
"A cohort-component method is used to construct historical annual age/sex disaggregations of total population. In econometric models of six substate areas [in the United States], regressions are estimated with and without the disaggregated data for five model variables expected to be dependent on the size of particular population subgroups. Statistical tests are performed to determine significant differences in residual variance of estimation with and without the disaggregated data. Although age/sex population projections may be a desired model output per se, the results indicate that the population subgroup data generally do not improve estimation of other model variables." (summary in FRE, ITA, JPN, )
Age Distribution↗
What difference do alternative immigration and integration levels make to Western Europe?
The authors examine the effects of migration and migrant assimilation on population dynamics in Western Europe. "Alternative multi-state population projections to 2050 based on six scenarios show that (1) in the case of no further immigration the total population of Western Europe will start to decline after 2010; (2) the rate of integration influences the future size of the non-European population much more than alternative levels of immigration; (3) in the long run the Eastern Europeans will be quantitatively insignificant; (4) the Western European population is bound to significant population aging no matter what happens with immigration; and (5) in the short to medium run immigrants contribute to the alleviation of the pension burden." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
Acculturation↗
Fertility projection based on birth order data--a Swedish approach.
"The decreasing fertility rates in Sweden during the 1970s can be explained as postponement of childbearing. An increasingly larger part of each generation has chosen to bear children at a late age, after education and some years of occupational work. As a consequence, the yearly age-specific rates will, in years to come, change systematically towards relatively high rates for women in the second half of the fertile period; changes which are important in population projections. To predict the future rates a model based on birth order data and assumptions about the final family size is used. The model and its application in the 1989 projection of the Swedish population is discussed in the paper. Alternative projections and the assumptions behind the alternatives are specified."
Birth Order↗
Modeling impacts on populations: fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) exposure to the endocrine disruptor 17beta-trenbolone as a case study.
Evaluation of population-level impacts is critical to credible ecological risk assessments. In this study, a predictive model was developed to translate changes in fecundity of the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) in a short-term laboratory toxicity test to alterations in population growth rate. The model uniquely combines a Leslie population projection matrix and the logistic equation. Application of the model requires only a life table for the organism of interest, a measure of carrying capacity for the given population, and an estimation of the effect of a stressor on vital rates. The model was applied to investigate population dynamics for fathead minnow exposed to the androgen receptor agonist 17beta-trenbolone. Organismal-level responses for fathead minnows exposed to varying levels of 17beta-trenbolone were used to determine projected alterations in a population existing in a small body of water containing varying concentrations of the androgen. Fathead minnow populations occurring at carrying capacity and subsequently exposed to 0.027 microg/L of 17beta-trenbolone exhibited a 51% projected decrease in average population size after 2 years of exposure. Populations at carrying capacity exposed to concentrations of 17beta-trenbolone > or = 0.266 microg/L exhibited a 93% projected decrease in average population size after 2 years of exposure. Overall, fathead minnow populations exposed to continued concentrations of 17beta-trenbolone equal to or greater than 0.027 microg/L were projected to have average equilibrium population sizes that approached zero.
Androgens↗
Population and social security projections for Bangladesh.
The author presents population projections for Bangladesh using data from the 1981 census, U.N. sources, and other official and nonofficial sources. "Confidence intervals for year 1986 and year 2001 populations for Bangladesh are developed. Rural-urban shifts in population are analyzed through Markov chains, and reveal a significant projected redistribution to urban areas. A study is presented of the actuarial cost of a potential social security program designed to meet the financial needs of an increasing set of urban dwellers.... Aggregate projected contributions and benefits for the years 1975, 2005, 2015, and 2025 illustrate the possible program."
Asia↗
[Long-term trends of the demographic aging in Germany].
At the beginning of the 21st century, Germany is experiencing the highest demographic aging after Japan. The aging process was first initiated by the increase of life expectancy, especially at the age above 60 years which caused an increase in the number of old people. During the next phase (1970-2000) the aging process was additionally affected by decreasing birth rates. Since the end of the 1960s the total fertility rate in Germany has been below the replacement level. As a consequence the number of children is decreasing and the number of old people has been increasing for 30 years. Various population projections published by the Institute for Population Research and Social Policy (IBS) demonstrate that the aging process will intensify during the next 50 years: the number of the oldest old population will triple, and the dependancy ratio will at least double. This process cannot be stopped or considerably diminished by an increasing number of young immigrants. After 2050 the cohorts born after the second world war (the baby boom cohorts) will be dead. But the decreasing number of old people beyond 2050 will not automatically lead to a lower dependancy ratio, because the age group 0-20 is diminishing continuously. Only a rise of the total fertility rate to the replacement level of 2.1 children per women could stop the aging process effectively in the long run (i.e., after two generations or after 60 years, respectively). In this case, the dependancy ratio will not double or triple but increase by a factor of 1.5.
Aged↗