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Secular changes in the short-term preventive, positive, and temperature checks to population growth in Europe, 1460 to 1909.

"Annual variations in births, marriages, deaths, grain prices, and quarterly temperature series in England, France, Prussia, and Sweden [for the period 1460-1909] are analyzed using a distributed lag model. The results provide support for the existence of the short-term preventive, positive and temperature checks to population growth. Decreases in fertility and nuptiality are generally associated with increases in grain prices. Increases in mortality appear to be associated with high grain prices, cold winters and hot summers. Changes in these responses over time are examined within the context of economic development."

Climate↗

Marital status behaviour of women in the former Soviet Republics.

This paper uses the most recent data and life table analysis to describe the marital behavior of women in the republics of the former USSR. For the first time a multistate life table analysis was used to describe the marital careers of women from all the 15 republics. In the near future, such a comparative analysis will no longer be possible due to the unavailability of statistical data, especially in some of the Asian states. The analysis shows that despite 70 years of influence by Soviet ideology and lifestyle, the institution of marriage was little subject to rapid change, and retained its traditions for each culture and its ethnic features. Marriage was a universal institution in the former USSR. The majority of the women in all of the former republics entered marriage at least once. The mean age at first marriage varies from 20.5 in Moldavia to 22.8 in Azerbaijan. The proportion of marriages that end in divorce differs from 16% in Georgia to 41% in Latvia. On average more than 30% of divorced women remarry in Latvia and Ukraine and less than 5% in Georgia.

Demography↗

Divorce-risk trends in Sweden 1971-1993.

"The purpose of this paper is to introduce an updated system of annual indexes of divorce risks and to use the system to display trends in divorce risks for Swedish women over the years since 1971. Divorce-risk trends turn out to have been quite different for women at different parities. Trends for women in their first marriage (the majority) are also somewhat different from trends in later marriages. After a spurt in divorces at parity 0 connected with a divorce reform in 1974, divorce risks have been quite stable for women at this parity, but they have increased steadily among married mothers, mostly as an effect of an increasing prevalence of premarital childbearing. Our indexes are produced by an indirect standardization of register data with respect to women's age at marriage, duration of marriage, and order of marriage. We also recommend standardization with respect to an indicator of premarital childbearing, which is particularly important in a population with extensive nonmarital cohabitation." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Biology↗

Divorce, mobility and housing demand.

The authors analyze the relationship between divorce and housing in the Netherlands. "We first describe the increase in the number of divorces since the early seventies as a context for our subsequent analysis of residential mobility and housing demand among the divorced. Expectations for future developments from now till the year 2000 are evaluated. We base our analysis on the general statistics compiled by the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics..., data from the 'National Survey of Housing Needs' 1981..., and a small survey we conducted in the municipality of Nieuwegein.... As recently as the early seventies, divorce had a relatively minor impact on the housing market in the Netherlands. But in the last decade the role of divorce in the process of household formation and dissolution has grown dramatically [and has had] an increasing impact on mobility and housing demand...." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Demography↗

Modelling step-families: exploratory findings.

"A combined macro-micro model is applied to a population similar to that forecast for 2035 in the Netherlands in order to simulate the effect on kinship networks of a mating system of serial monogamy. The importance of incorporating a parameter for the degree of concentration of childbearing over the female population is emphasized. The inputs to the model are vectors of fertility rates by age of mother, and by age of father, a matrix of first-marriage rates by age of both partners (used in the macro-analytical expressions), and two parameters H and S (used in the micro-simulation phase). The output is a data base of hypothetical individuals, whose records contain identification number, age, sex, and the identification numbers of their relatives." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Developed Countries↗