[Demographic changes in the 1980s: notes from the preliminary results of the 1993 population census].
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"In this paper the refinement and application of a technique for the generation of surface models of population and related information are examined.... The resulting database facilitates a range of improved spatial analyses. Some of these are more flexible means of accomplishing conventional tasks, such as the computation of incidence rates and the estimation of population for nonstandard areal units. Additionally, surface concepts are able to support innovative techniques, such as the identification and characterization of discrete settlements. Applications are described which demonstrate the range of possible analyses." The technique is illustrated using data for the United Kingdom.
"This article presents a new method for decomposing age distribution changes into changes in the number of births and changes in age-specific rates of mortality and migration. The method is developed on the basis of the equation for the age-specific growth rate proposed by Horiuchi and Preston (1988). Using this method, it is shown that the increase in the proportion of women in Japan during 1970-1980 is mainly due to the reduction of mortality, particularly at old ages. The results lend support to the proposed idea that the pattern of age structure changes in developed countries is now shifting from fertility-dominated to mortality-dominated ageing." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1989 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
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This paper is aimed at investigating the dynamic process of population growth applied to population of the People's Republic of China. The discrete and continuous models of population evolution process are revised and adjusted to suit the social conditions of China. The relationship between two kinds of models is established. A series of new formulae of demographic indices are studied and defined as functions on the negative space of generalized solutions of the population equation. Based on survey data collected in China for recent years, the prospect of population growth according to different projections is offered for a one-hundred-year period from now on.
"It is often stated that the single most important influence on the quality of forecasts of behaviour is the set of predetermined exogenous variables (typically sociodemographic) that categorise the population. These variables are used to carry the sampled population into the future as a representation of the composition of future populations.... It is argued that a desired segmentation set should be linked to preference stability, and that a suitable procedure for establishing such a link is via preference data derived from a controlled experimental design. From the empirical study it is illustrated how preference data can be combined with socioeconomic data to seek out the role of the 'current' set and the 'new' set of socioeconomic variables in a particular forecasting context. Since the selection of variables must be application specific, the main emphasis of this paper is on the methodology. The reported empirical findings [for Australia] are of illustrative use only."
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"We describe a methodology for estimating the accuracy of dual systems estimates (DSE's) of population, census estimates of population, and estimates of undercount in the census. The DSE's are based on the census and a post-enumeration survey (PES). We apply the methodology to the 1988 dress rehearsal census of St. Louis and east-central Missouri and we discuss its applicability to the 1990 [U.S.] census and PES. The methodology is based on decompositions of the total (or net) error into components, such as sampling error, matching error, and other nonsampling errors. Limited information about the accuracy of certain components of error, notably failure of assumptions in the 'capture-recapture' model, but others as well, lead us to offer tentative estimates of the errors of the census, DSE, and undercount estimates for 1988. Improved estimates are anticipated for 1990." Comments are included by Eugene P. Ericksen and Joseph B. Kadane (pp. 855-7) and Kenneth W. Wachter and Terence P. Speed (pp. 858-61), as well as a rejoinder by Mulry and Spencer (pp. 861-3).
A new technic using the principle of enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA) has been developed for the detection of complement components on red blood cells sensitized in vivo or in vitro. Using a double-antibody technic, anticomplement antisera (anti-C3c or anti-C3c/C3d) produced in rabbits was incubated with the red blood cells, followed by incubation with antirabbit alkaline phosphatase conjugated antiglobulin. The amount of the enzyme fixed was measured spectrophotometrically by the enzymatic hydrolysis of the substrate PNPP. A calibration curve was made from red blood cells on which complement was deposited by the method of Fruitstone . The technic showed a greater sensitivity than the standard antiglobulin tests and allowed simultaneous qualitative and semiquantitative estimates. The technic can be performed in any laboratory equipped with the standard equipment found in a blood bank, including a spectrophotometer. The authors made a modification of Alsever 's solution, which allowed the safe and stable preservation of complement coated red blood cells for 15 days. Significant positive results were obtained clinically using this technic, while negative or weakly positive reactions were obtained by the conventional antiglobulin tests.
"This paper presents estimates of the rate of population redistribution to the core areas of 44 developing countries over the period 1950-80. Particular attention is given to the period 1970-80, a time during which the core areas of developed countries experienced substantial declines in their rates of net inmigration. The principal finding is that the core areas of most developing countries are still experiencing high and, in a number of cases, increasing rates of net inmigration." The author contends that "this finding confirms the developmental model of spatial concentration and dispersal and should lay to rest other explanations of deconcentration, including arguments that focus on diseconomies of absolute size in the core area or on fluctuations in the aggregate economy." The difference between the population growth rates of entire nations and of core areas is used as a measure of interregional migration. Data for the 44 countries and information on the data sources are included in appendixes.
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