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The basis of sample size calculations is usually needed in protocols for clinical trials and when publishing results in respected journals. Although a large amount of research has been undertaken on sample size estimation for different trial designs, in practice the methods are rarely used. This paper describes some useful theory that has practical relevance.
The purpose of this study was to examine the relation between working memory span and syllogistic reasoning performance. In addition, performance for the reasoning task was compared to predictions made by mental model theory and the probability heuristics model. According to mental model theory, syllogisms that require the use of more mental models are more difficult. According to the probability heuristics model difficulty is related to the number of probabilistic heuristics that must be applied, or (for invalid syllogisms) inconsistencies between the derived and correct conclusion. The predictions of these theories were examined across two experiments. In general, people with larger working memory capacities reasoned better. Also, the responses made by people with larger capacities were more likely to correspond to the predictions made by both mental model theory and the probability heuristics model. Relations between working memory span and performance were also consistent with both theories.
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Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
This study used Rasch measurement theory to examine the Mississippi Scale--Revised for its utility in the development of an interval measure of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Rasch is a probability-based theory that provides both a measure of the person responding to the instrument and the location of each item calibration on one common construct or dimension. The study used a largely male sample of 153 veterans to evaluate the quality of the items defining PTSD, to describe how the items represent the symptom range of the disorder, and to assess the functioning of items in evaluating PTSD with and without comorbid MDD. Sixteen items were found to fit the measurement model. These items may be used to develop an interval scale of the PTSD construct that is generalizable across diverse populations and that can be used for individualized comparable assessments.
Safety assessments of technological systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical process facilities, and hazardous waste repositories, require the investigation of the occurrence and consequences of rare events. The subjectivistic (Bayesian) theory of probability is the appropriate framework within which expert opinions, which are essential to the quantification process, can be combined with experimental results and statistical observations to produce quantitative measures of the risks from these systems. A distinction is made between uncertainties in physical models and state-of-knowledge uncertainties about the parameters and assumptions of these models. The proper role of past and future relative frequencies and several issues associated with elicitation and use of expert opinions are discussed.
The purpose of this research was to explore the explanatory value of Awareness Context Theory for social interactional issues in early probable Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Glaser and Strauss's Awareness Context Theory [Glaser and Strauss (1965) Awareness of Dying, Aldine, New York] served as the framework for the analysis of interview data from 14 early probable AD clients and 14 family caregivers, a written autobiographical account, a fictionalized account, observations of a family care-giver focus group, and excerpts that focused on early AD from field notes recorded during two years of participant observation at a specialized AD daycare center and a family caregiver support group. Initial open-ended study questions focused on the experience of early AD from the diverse perspectives represented in the data. After preliminary analysis of data suggesting emergent fit with Awareness Context Theory, questions were refocused to address awareness contexts. Data were coded and analyzed for fit with the theory. Awareness Context Theory provided a useful heuristic for thinking about the nuances and complexities of social interaction in early AD. Attention to awareness contexts should enable health care providers to suggest interventions to improve caregiver-client interactions.
In this paper, we prove by perturbational molecular orbital (PMO) theory that with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) there exist two regions having electrophilic activity, which are the necessary and sufficient condition for its carcinogenic activity. We are the first to obtain a quantitative equation for the carcinogenic activity of PAH, using the carbonium ion delocalization energies as parameters. By using the equation, the calculated carcinogenic activity is in fair accord with the experiment, and the consistent ratio comes up to 98%. Further study shows that the optimum distance for carcinogenic activity approximates to 2.80 A. This is just the distance between the negative centers in DNA double helix. Therefore, the key step of the carcinogenesis for PAH in vivo is the interstrand cross linkage between the DNA complementary base pair. In terms of this deduction, we suggest that the possible mechanism of chemical carcinogenesis should be a complementary frameshift mutation between the DNA double helix. We name such an idea "di-region theory", which probably might be of general significance for other chemical carcinogenesis.
Probabilistic methods are providing new explanatory approaches to fundamental cognitive science questions of how humans structure, process and acquire language. This review examines probabilistic models defined over traditional symbolic structures. Language comprehension and production involve probabilistic inference in such models; and acquisition involves choosing the best model, given innate constraints and linguistic and other input. Probabilistic models can account for the learning and processing of language, while maintaining the sophistication of symbolic models. A recent burgeoning of theoretical developments and online corpus creation has enabled large models to be tested, revealing probabilistic constraints in processing, undermining acquisition arguments based on a perceived poverty of the stimulus, and suggesting fruitful links with probabilistic theories of categorization and ambiguity resolution in perception.
Recent evidence suggests that genetic and biochemical factors associated with psychoses may also provide an increased propensity to think creatively. The evolutionary theories linking brain growth and diet to the appearance of creative endeavors have been made recently, but they lack a direct link to research on the biological correlates of divergent and creative thought. Expanding upon Horrobin's theory that changes in brain size and in neural microconnectivity came about as a result of changes in dietary fat and phospholipid incorporation of highly unsaturated fatty acids, we propose a theory relating phospholipase A2 (PLA2) activity to the neuromodulatory effects of the noradrenergic system. This theory offers probable links between attention, divergent thinking, and arousal through a mechanism that emphasizes optimal individual functioning of the PLA2 and NE systems as they interact with structural and biochemical states of the brain. We hope that this theory will stimulate new research in the neural basis of creativity and its connection to psychoses.
This paper investigates the accuracy of the resistive-force theory (Gray and Hancock method) which is commonly used for hydrodynamic analysis of swimming flagella. We made a comparison between the forces, bending moments, and shear moments calculated by resistive-force theory and by the more accurate slender-body theory for large-amplitude, planar wave forms computed for a flagellar model. By making an upward empirical adjustment, by about 35%, of the classical drag coefficient values used in the resistive-force theory calculations, we obtained good agreement between the distributions of the forces and moments along the length of the flagellum predicted by the two methods when the flagellum has no cell body attached. After this adjustment, we found the rate of energy expenditure calculated by the two methods for the few typical test cases to be almost identical. The resistive-force theory is thus completely satisfactory for use in analysis of mechanisms for the control of flagellar bending, at the current level of sophistication of this analysis. We also examined the effects of the presence of a cell body attached to one end of the flagellum, which modifies the flow field experienced by the flagellum. This interaction, which is not considered in resistive-force theory, is probably insignificant for small cell bodies, such as the heads of simple spermatozoa, but for larger cell bodies, or cell bodies that have large-amplitude motions transverse to the swimming direction, use of slender-body theory is required for accurate analysis.
This article describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed until the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built on methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty.
A theory of transfection is developed which describes three different types of experiments in transfection: The concentration dependence of transfection, transfection with marker rescue, and the mapping function in transfection crosses. The theory is applicable to transfection systems exhibiting quadratic or higher order dose response (APP1, AP50, SP82). It pictures the essential process in transfection as follows: transfecting DNA molecules, having suffered inactivating events during uptake or intracellularly, have to recombine prior to replication under elimination of these lesions. The probability for recombination, successful in this sense, is calculated as a function of the number of DNA molecules within the competent cell, the mean number of inactivating events per DNA molecule, and the crossover probability per nucleotide. Under the assumption of random distribution of inactivating events over the population of DNA molecules and homogeneous crossover probabilities the theory explains on a quantitative basis a number of experimental observations in transfection, as for instance the relative efficiencies of different helper phage in transfection with marker rescue, the third order concentration dependence in SP50 transfection, and the high recombination frequencies observed in transfection crosses.
Research on people's confidence in their general knowledge has to date produced two fairly stable effects, many inconsistent results, and no comprehensive theory. We propose such a comprehensive framework, the theory of probabilistic mental models (PMM theory). The theory (a) explains both the overconfidence effect (mean confidence is higher than percentage of answers correct) and the hard-easy effect (overconfidence increases with item difficulty) reported in the literature and (b) predicts conditions under which both effects appear, disappear, or invert. In addition, (c) it predicts a new phenomenon, the confidence-frequency effect, a systematic difference between a judgment of confidence in a single event (i.e., that any given answer is correct) and a judgment of the frequency of correct answers in the long run. Two experiments are reported that support PMM theory by confirming these predictions, and several apparent anomalies reported in the literature are explained and integrated into the present framework.
Perceptual multistability, alternative perceptions of an unchanging stimulus, gives important clues to neural dynamics. The present study examined 56 perceptual dominance time series for a Necker cube stimulus, for ambiguous motion, and for binocular rivalry. We made histograms of the perceptual dominance times, based on from 307 to 2478 responses per time series (median=612), and compared these histograms to gamma, lognormal and Weibull fitted distributions using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. In 40 of the 56 tested cases a lognormal distribution provided an acceptable fit to the histogram (in 24 cases it was the only fit). In 16 cases a gamma distribution, and in 11 cases a Weibull distribution, were acceptable but never as the only fit in either case. Any of the three distributions were acceptable in three cases and none provided acceptable fits in 12 cases. Considering only the 16 cases in which a lognormal distribution was rejected ( p<0.05) revealed that minor adjustments to the fourth-moment term of the lognormal characteristic function restored good fits. These findings suggest that random fractal theory might provide insight into the underlying mechanisms of multistable perceptions.
This paper seeks to enhance understanding of the philosophical underpinnings of our discipline and the resulting practical implications. Radiology reports exist in order to convey new knowledge about a patient's condition based on empiric observations from anatomic or functional images of the body. The route to explanation and prediction from empiric evidence is mostly through inference based on inductive (and sometimes abductive) arguments. The conclusions of inductive arguments are, by definition, contingent and provisional. Therefore, it is necessary to deal in some way with the uncertainty of inferential conclusions (i.e. interpretations) made in radiology reports. Two paradigms for managing uncertainty in natural sciences exist in dialectic tension with each other. These are the frequentist and Bayesian theories of probability. Tension between them is mirrored during routine interactions among radiologists and clinicians. I will describe these core issues and argue that they are quite relevant to routine image interpretation and reporting.