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When predictions don't predict.

One of the most widespread abuses of statistical methods involves the misinterpretation of statistical significance after the application of multiple comparisons. This paper highlights the problem by demonstrating 'significance' when clearly none exists.

Female↗

A significant diffuse component predicts for inferior survival in grade 3 follicular lymphoma, but cytologic subtypes do not predict survival.

Grade 3 follicular lymphoma (FL3) is thought to have an aggressive clinical course. On the basis of possible biologic differences, the new World Health Organization (WHO) classification of lymphoma suggests further subdivision of FL3 into grades 3a and 3b and states that the percentage of involvement by diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) should also be reported. However, the clinical implications of these features are unclear. Therefore, we studied 190 newly diagnosed patients with lymph node-based FL3 who received anthracycline-containing combination chemotherapy. The follicular component was subclassified as grade 3a (FL3a) or grade 3b (FL3b) according to the WHO criteria, or as follicular large cleaved cell type (FLC). The percentage of a diffuse component, if present, was also recorded. Of the 190 cases, there were 107 FL3a (56%), 53 FL3b (28%), and 30 FLC (16%) cases. Diffuse areas were seen in 72 cases (31 FL3a, 28 FL3b, and 13 FLC). There were no significant differences in the clinical characteristics, overall survival, or event-free survival between patients with grades FL3a, FL3b, or FLC. However, those cases with a predominant diffuse component (> 50% diffuse) had a significantly worse overall survival (P =.0037) and event-free survival (P =.012). Therefore, we conclude that the subdivision of FL3 into cytologic subtypes does not appear to be important clinically. However, patients with FL3 having a diffuse component of more than 50% have an inferior survival that is similar to the survival of those with DLBCL.

Adolescent↗

The preterm prediction study: the value of new vs standard risk factors in predicting early and all spontaneous preterm births. NICHD MFMU Network.

OBJECTIVES: This study was undertaken to determine the relationship between fetal fibronectin, short cervix, bacterial vaginosis, other traditional risk factors, and spontaneous preterm birth. METHODS: From 1992 through 1994, 2929 women were screened at the gestational age 22 to 24 weeks. RESULTS: The odds ratios for spontaneous preterm birth were highest for fetal fibronectin, followed by a short cervix and history of preterm birth. These factors, as well as bacterial vaginosis, were more strongly associated with early than with late spontaneous preterm birth. Bacterial vaginosis was more common--and a stronger predictor of spontaneous preterm birth--in Black women, while body mass index less than 19.8 was a stronger predictor in non-Black women. This analysis suggests a pathway leading from Black race through bacterial vaginosis and fetal fibronectin to spontaneous preterm birth. Prior preterm birth is associated with spontaneous preterm birth through a short cervix. CONCLUSIONS: Fetal fibronectin and a short cervix are stronger predictors of spontaneous preterm birth than traditional risk factors. Bacterial vaginosis was found more often in Black than in non-Black women and accounted for 40% of the attributable risk for spontaneous preterm birth at less than 32 weeks.

Cervix Uteri↗

Low socio-economic status, smoking, mental stress and obesity predict obstructive symptoms in women, but only smoking also predicts subsequent experience of poor health.

This study was conducted among female subjects to assess the possible association between selected risk factors and lung function as well as airway symptoms in a 32-year perspective. The Prospective Population Study of Women was initiated in 1968-1969 in Göteborg, Sweden (population about 450,000) with follow-ups in 1974-1975, 1980-1981, 1992-1993 and 2000-2001. Women born in 1930, representative of women of the same age in the general population in 1968, were selected. Initially, 372 participants were included in the cohort. In 2000-2001, 231 of these women (73%), now 70 years old, underwent lung function tests. The main outcome measures were lung function values, airway symptoms and health outcome in 2000-2001 in relation to self-reported exposures in 1968-1969 including smoking status. Smoking in 1968-1969 was associated with self-reported chronic bronchitis, obstructive symptoms and poor health 32 years later as well as lower lung function values, compared to non-smokers. Obesity, low socio-economic status and self-reported mental stress in 1968-1969 were associated with obstructive symptoms 32 years later. There are only a few longitudinal studies concerning women's health problems in this field and epidemiological studies of lung function impairment in women and risk factors in a long-term perspective are scarce. The results of the study suggest that life-style factors such as mental stress, obesity and smoking among women are related to airway symptoms and also quality of life many years later.

Adult↗