Search PubMed⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “Population Projection”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources

[The demographic transition in Finland and Hungary].

"The study compares demographic transition in Finland and Hungary in the 1881-1986 period. The analysis focuses on the classical two-factor model of demographic transition, i.e. the effect of fertility and mortality on the number and age composition of inhabitants.... The author [also] presents six population projections, prepared with the [cohort] method, covering the period of 1991-2041. By means of these he compares the likely changes in the number and age composition of inhabitants in Finland and Hungary." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

Age Distribution↗

Time use and costs of institutionalised elderly persons with or without dementia: results from the Nordanstig cohort in the Kungsholmen Project--a population based study in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: The aging of the population has become a worldwide phenomenon. This leads to increased demand for services and with limited resources it is important to find a way to estimate how resources can be match to those with greatest need. AIMS: To analyse time use and costs in institutional care in relation to different levels of cognitive and functional capacity for elderly persons. METHODS: The population consisted of all institutionalised inhabitants, 75 + years, living in a rural community (n = 176). They were clinically examined by physicians and interviewed by nurses. Staff and informal care-giving time was examined with the RUD (Resource Utilization in Dementia) instrument. RESULTS: Tobit regression analyses showed that having dementia increased the amount of ADL care time with 0.9 h when compared to those not having dementia, whereas each loss of an ADL function (0-6) added 0.6 h of ADL care time. Analysing the total care time use, the presence of dementia added more than 9 h, while each loss of one ADL function added 2.9 h. There were some informal care contributions, however with no correlation to severity in dependency. The estimated cost for institutional care increased with more than 85% for people being dependent in 5-6 ADL activities compared to persons with no functional dependency, and with 30% for persons with dementia compared to the non-demented. CONCLUSION: There is a variation in time use in institutional settings due to differences in ADL dependency but also whether dementia is present or not. This variation has implications for costs of institutional care.

Activities of Daily Living↗

Importance of adult survival, local recruitment and immigration in a declining boreal forest passerine, the willow tit Parus montanus.

Population growth rate (lambda) and its components (adult survival, local recruitment, immigration and their relative contributions to lambda) were studied in the declining willow tit Parus montanus in Northern Finland. Capture-recapture models for open populations were used to estimate the population parameters and their process variation. Adult survival was fairly high with low variation (0.593, CV=0.067). As expected, local recruitment was lower and more variable (0.063, CV=0.610). During the 12-year study, the population growth rate averaged to one (0.988, CV=0.197; calculated as [see text]. However, if the present processes continue, population projections show that the population is likely to decline. There was considerable temporal variation in the relative contributions of demographic parameters to lambda. In all years, adult survival had the highest relative contribution (mean 64%) to the population growth rate and it was the least variable trait. Immigration had a higher relative contribution (22%) to lambda than local recruitment (14%). Based on the results for the contributions to lambda, the main conservation concern for willow tits is adult survival. Due to low variation, adult survival may be difficult to enhance, but at least it should be prevented from declining. High stochasticity in local recruitment and immigration is probably an inherent characteristic of highly seasonal environments, making these traits difficult to address for conservation practices.

Animals↗

Estimation and projection of population lung cancer trends (United Kingdom).

OBJECTIVE: Reduction of overall cancer mortality in the UK will require a marked decrease in lung cancer incidence and mortality. A method was sought to predict future lung cancer trends at regional and subregional levels to improve planning, aid the monitoring of health promotion strategies, and to assess health gains that might be achieved. METHODS: Data on 55,000 lung cancer patients were used in an age-cohort model of lung cancer incidence (1981-95) and a parametric model of survival (1981-91). Indicators of deprivation were included in the models. Prevalence was estimated from the product of incidence and survival. Lung cancer trends were predicted to 2015, both at steady state and with an incidence perturbation. RESULTS: Female lung cancer is predicted to increase, until by 2015 the numbers will almost equal those in men. Cohort coefficients reveal an increasing risk of lung cancer in females born after 1941. Changing these female cohort coefficients to equate to a declining risk after 1941 suggests that, by 2015, around 200 cases per year might be prevented. This would necessitate a marked change in smoking behavior. Survival from lung cancer was significantly associated with social deprivation and health authority of residence. CONCLUSIONS: A credible model has been derived which can be used for health service and outcome monitoring. The model results have highlighted a priority area for smoking intervention which currently seems to attract little attention.

Adult↗

Subpallial origin of a population of projecting pioneer neurons during corticogenesis.

Pyramidal neurons of the mammalian cerebral cortex are generated in the ventricular zone of the pallium whereas the subpallium provides the cortex with inhibitory interneurons. The marginal zone contains a subpial stream of migratory interneurons and two different classes of transient neurons, the pioneer neurons provided with corticofugal axons, and the reelin-expressing Cajal-Retzius cells. We found in cultured slices that the medial ganglionic eminence provides the reelin-negative pioneer neurons of the marginal zone. Pioneer neurons sent long projection axons that went through the cortical plate and reached the subplate and the lateral border of the lateral ganglionic eminence. In the cultured slices, pioneer neurons were functionally mature: they displayed a voltage-gated sodium current, expressed functional alpha-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid (AMPA) receptors, and showed gamma-aminobutyric acid type A (GABAA) postsynaptic events that were modulated by presynaptic AMPA receptors. Pioneer neurons expressed the adhesion molecules L1 and TAG-1; the latter has been reported to control tangential migrations to the neocortex [Denaxa, M., Chan, C.-H., Schachner, M., Parnavelas, J. & Karagogeos, D. (2001) Development (Cambridge, U.K.) 128, 4635-4644], and we show here that the pioneer neurons of the marginal zone are the cellular substrate of such a function. Finally, we show that, in early corticogenesis, reelin controls both the tangential migration of cortical interneurons toward the cortical plate and the tangential migration of pioneer neurons toward the marginal zone.

Animals↗

Population analysis on the microcomputer: a system of software packages.

"This paper describes a system of versatile software packages that has been developed by the author for population analysis on IBM-compatible microcomputers using PC or MS DOS. The series includes programs for the production of life tables, the analysis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in mortality, population projections, stationary-state population simulations and demographic planning, cohort survival estimates of net migration, and the analysis of migration matrices. Each of the programs in the series is discussed in terms of its principal analytical features, associated conceptual and methodological issues, and potential applications. The programs are intended for use both as basic research and planning tools and as instructional aids in university-level-courses. The programs and related documentation are available on a set of four 360K diskettes." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Cohort Studies↗

Incidence of clinically diagnosed subtypes of dementia in an elderly population. Cambridge Project for Later Life.

BACKGROUND: In developed countries, most dementia appears to be due to Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia. We report rates for incidence of subtypes of dementia based on clinical diagnosis. METHOD: This study was a 2.4-year (s.d. 2.6 months) follow-up of a cohort aged 75 years and over, seen initially in a prevalence study of dementia. A screening interview in 1173 survivors was followed in a subsample of 461 respondents by a diagnostic interview 1.8 months after screening (s.d. 1.5 months). This comprised a standardised interview with respondent and informant, with venepuncture where possible. Clinical diagnoses of subtypes were made by specified criteria. RESULTS: The incidence of Alzheimer's disease of mild and greater severity was 2.7/1000 person-years at risk (1.6-4.4); in men 1.5 (0.8-2.7) and in women 3.3 (1.8-5.9). The incidence of vascular dementia was 1.2/100 person-years at risk (0.7-1.9); in men 1.1 (0.4-2.8) and in women 1.2 (0.7-2.0). Alzheimer's disease, but not vascular dementia, showed a marked increase with age, particularly in women. Rates for minimal dementia of different subtypes showed similar age and sex effects, but were much higher for Alzheimer's disease than vascular dementia. CONCLUSIONS: The striking rise in incidence rates of dementia in the very old appear to be due to Alzheimer's disease, while rates for vascular dementia remain relatively constant. These trends are particularly marked for minimal dementia, but emphasise the importance of Alzheimer's disease in the community as a cause of cognitive decline of all degrees.

Aged↗

[Evolution of the population of Quebec and Canada over the past century and a half in the absence of migration].

"Population projections in the absence of migration--based on observed or estimated mortality and fertility rates since 1851--help provide a long-term assessment of migration in Quebec and Canada, through the comparison of census data with the results of such projections. Without migration since 1851, Quebec would have had 12 million inhabitants in 1991 instead of the observed 7 million. For Canada, the projection [excluding] migration since 1871 results in a population of 26 million persons (without Newfoundland), this being one million less than the latest census total." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)

Americas↗

Forecasting change in Louisiana physician age cohorts: 1994-2020.

A shortage of physicians is predicted in the near future, as there is a mismatch between the supply and demand for physicians. Our objective was to examine what effect an aging Louisiana physician population might have on these forecasts using data from the American Medical Association and population projections from the Louisiana Population Data Center. Our results propose a considerable rise in the number of Louisiana physicians who are older, with growth in younger physicians being continually flat. We forecast 44.2 percent of Louisiana physicians will be over 55 years of age in the year 2020. Acknowledging many limitations of a study such as this, we believe an aging physician population might lead to an overall decrease in the effective physician supply of Louisiana in the future.

Adult↗

B-scan ultrasound examination of the carotid arteries within a representative population (MONICA Project Augsburg).

As part of the MONICA project carried out in Augsburg, 1388 male and female subjects, aged 25 to 65 years, participated in a B-scan ultrasound examination of the carotid arteries. The segments of the carotid arteries examined on both sides of the neck were the A. carotis communis, the A. carotis interna, and A carotis externa. As a result plaques were found in 330 subjects (23.9%). The presence of plaques in subjects is strongly correlated to age (increasing trend in both sexes, P less than 0.001) and the process of establishing plaques starts in men earlier than in women (P less than 0.01). For both sexes a different correlation structures is found for the relationship of cardiovascular risk factors to presence of plaques as well as to number of plaques in the carotid arteries. In men, total cholesterol (P less than 0.05) and personal history of diabetes, myocardial infarction, and stroke (P less than 0.01) were positively correlated with the presence of plaques while HDL/total cholesterol ratio shows a negative correlation (P less than 0.01). In women, none of the analyzed risk factors is found to correlate significantly with the presence of plaques. Regarding the number of vessels with plaques, a consistent and significant relationship with both hypertension and total cholesterol is seen in males and with hypertension in females. Comparing the different factors analyzed, age is obviously much more related to the occurrence of plaques than all the other risk factors together. Age is followed by a decrease in HDL cholesterol and, at a much lower level, by hypertension and smoking.

Adult↗