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Demographic and employment shifts: implications for benefits and economic security.

This Issue Brief examines factors affecting the population's age distribution and composition, such as mortality rates, fertility rates, and immigration. In addition, it examines factors affecting labor force composition, such as immigration, increased labor force participation of women, and retirement trends, and discusses the potential impact of these changes on publicly financed programs: Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and federal employee retirement systems. The discussion also highlights the implications of these population and labor force changes on employers, employees, and retirees. The elderly population--now 31.8 million, representing 12.6 percent of the population--is projected to experience tremendous growth between 2010 and 2030, when the baby boom generation reaches age 65, rising from 39.7 million, or 13.3 percent of the population, to 69.8 million, or 20.2 percent of the population. Growth in the elderly population has implications for retirement and health care systems. Population projections suggest that the traditionally pyramid-shaped work force, with a proportionately greater number of younger workers than older workers, will be replaced with a more even age distribution. Consequently, significant and continued modifications to benefit packages, such as changes in compensation structures in which earnings automatically rise with age, are likely to occur. Women's labor force participation began to accelerate in the mid-1950s, rising 75 percent among women aged 25-44 in 1991, although there is some indication that this growth may be flattening. With women comprising a greater part of the labor force, employers will be encouraged to develop and implement programs to better accommodate their needs. Increased life expectancy, a decreased percentage of entry level workers, changes in Social Security's normal retirement age from 65 to 67, and employer plans to raise the normal age of retirement or provide incentives to delay retirement, could raise the average age of retirement. However, other factors, such as poor health, other sources of retirement income, and individual preferences for retirement, could still dominate the retirement decision. The combination of increased average life expectancy guaranteeing more years of retirement to finance and rising dependency ratios increases the future cost of Social Security financing. Medicare financing is also an important policy issue because the program is projected to experience financial difficulties in the short term, resulting from explosive health care costs. In addition, Medicaid expenditures are consuming increasing amount of shrinking state budget resources--a large portion of which is used to finance nursing home care for a growing elderly population.

Age Distribution↗

The challenge of an aging work force: keeping older workers employed and employable.

This article reviews labor-force trends and older-worker employment policies in Japan and the United States. Both countries have aging work forces, but Japan's labor force is and for some time has been older than that of the United States. Japan's Ministry of Labor began addressing older-worker issues over 30 years ago and in the ensuing years has promulgated numerous initiatives to extend working life. Mandatory retirement, however, remains both legal and common in Japan, yet labor-force participation rates are higher for older persons in that country than in the United States, where mandatory retirement is illegal. Japan's older-worker programs and policies clearly seem to have an impact on labor-force rates, although those rates are dropping among the elderly in Japan as well as in the United States. The transferability of these programs and policies to the United States is discussed.

Aged↗

Employment, attitudes toward employment, and women's health.

The relationships between self-reported general health, employment, and attitudes toward the employment of married women have been analyzed for a representative sample of married, middle-aged women in the United States. The cross-sectional data indicate that women who were in the labor force had better health than women who were out of the labor force. In addition, women whose labor force status was compatible with their attitudes toward employment tended to have better health than women for whom there was a discrepancy between labor force status and attitudes. Analysis of the longitudinal data indicate that several causal mechanisms contributed to the relationships observed in the cross-sectional data. For the women with favorable attitudes toward employment, it appears that being a housewife had more detrimental effects on health than being employed. In contrast, for the women with unfavorable or neutral attitudes toward employment, it appears that employment status did not affect health. For healthy women, being employed may have contributed to more favorable attitudes toward employment. Healthy women were more likely than unhealthy women to stay in the labor force. Thus, it appears that there are multiple causal relationships linking employment status, attitudes toward employment and women's health.

Adaptation, Psychological↗

Not yet equal: employment experience of older women and older men.

Women age forty-five and over are an important component of all working women and of the older labor force. They make up almost 30 percent of the female civilian labor force. Of the older labor force, 40 percent are women. Yet contrary to societal values about equality in the market place, employment-related experience of older women is not only different from that of men but frequently disadvantaged. This article examines the growing importance of the issue of market equality of older working women. It then considers six ways in which their employment-related experience differs from that of men: labor force participation rates; occupational distribution; earnings; unemployment; poverty; and retirement income. The article concludes with suggested policy directions that would improve the status of older women. Some of these would assist, as well, employment needs of older men.

Age Factors↗

Social Security, retirement incentives, and retirement behavior: an international perspective.

Escalating rates of early retirement are imposing fiscal pressure on retirement systems around the world. In some developed countries, the labor-force participation rates of men ages 60-64 have fallen by 75 percent over the last three decades. One explanation for this striking decline is social security program provisions which create disincentives to continued labor-force participation by older workers. There are substantial differences among developed nations in the labor-force participation of older workers. While two-thirds of 60-year-old American males are working, only one-quarter of men that age are working in Belgium. Over the entire 55-65 age range, 63 percent of American males are working, compared with only 40 percent of French males and 33 percent of Belgians males. There is strong evidence that the early retirement provisions of social security systems in developed countries determine the modal age of retirement. There is a strong relationship between early retirement ages and labor-force withdrawal rates; for example, in France, 60 percent of those working at the early entitlement age of 60 leave the labor force at that age. The core of this analysis is the construction of "implicit tax/subsidy rates" on additional work at older ages through each nation's social security system. These rates measure the change in a worker's retirement wealth entitlement from delaying retirement for one year, relative to the amount that would have been earned over that year. The U.S. Social Security system has an actuarial adjustment for delayed benefits claiming and other features that avoid financial incentives to leave the labor force at age 62 for a married worker, there is a slight disincentive to work for single workers and high wage earners. However, at ages 65 and older there is a stronger incentive to leave the labor force, with implicit tax rates on work of 19 percent for married workers and 33 percent for single workers. By comparison, other nations do not have actuarially fair adjustments, and as a result impose substantial taxes on additional work at older ages. In several countries, implicit tax rates on work at older ages approach or exceed 100 percent. This is because by delaying retirement, workers forgo benefits which often replace close to their full wage, in addition to having to pay the high payroll taxes required to finance generous social security benefits. There is a striking correlation across nations between high implicit tax rates on additional work and low labor-force participation rates among older workers. This suggests that social security program incentives are an important determinant of retirement. These findings have important policy implications for reforming social security programs in the United States and abroad. Policymakers must consider how program reforms will affect incentives for continued work at older ages.

Actuarial Analysis↗

The essential forces of labor revisited: 13 Ps reported in womens' stories.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to analyze women's birth stories. Women's perspectives were used to expand the current model of the essential forces of labor (the three Ps: powers, passenger, and passageway). DESIGN: This was a qualitative descriptive study analyzing women's birth narratives. METHODS: Narratives consisted of women's spontaneous responses to the request to tell their birth stories in any way they wished. Fifteen Midwestern women (eight primiparas and seven multiparas) were interviewed, resulting in a total of 33 birth stories. Content and thematic analyses of verbatim transcripts of the birth narratives were done to elicit women's personal meanings of control during labor. RESULTS: Women identified many essential forces of labor that exerted control or direction over their labors. Some of the forces were internal to the women, such as maternal psyche and position, as well as the classic three Ps (powers, passenger, and passageway). Others were external forces such as professional providers and procedures. An expanded model is proposed to demonstrate the complexity of labor and the multiple interacting forces. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: The educational model, consisting of three essential forces that currently appears in textbooks, is inadequate. Maternity nursing practice can be improved by including a broader array of the essential forces of labor, thus attending more adequately to the complexity of caring holistically and contextually for laboring women. Women indicated that nurses have a profound impact during labor. Nurses are in a position to make positive change by working with women to share control.

Female↗

Population and labour force growth and patterns in ASEAN countries.

"The paper shows that the diverse labor dimensions prevailing in the ASEAN region can be attributed to changes in the structure of the society and economy in the course of recent economic development. It observes the considerable variety in the growth of the population and its effect on the labor force in the ASEAN region.... The paper details the similarity and diversity in the level and type of labor force participation rates. A common feature shared by ASEAN countries is a general pattern in the age-specific participation rate of men. In contrast, the women, aside from participating in the labor force at a much lower level than men at almost all ages, display diverse patterns of participation over the working age range. Lastly, the distribution of the labor force according to major industrial sectors in the six ASEAN countries is presented...."

Age Factors↗

Occupational and environmental reproductive hazards education and resources for communities of color.

Little research has been published on the occupational and environmental hazards affecting people of color. Even less is known about the hazards that affect women of color. Although women of color have always been aggressive participants in the work force, their labor activity has increased dramatically over the last decade. Current job placement patterns suggest that women of color are concentrated in the lowest-paying and most hazardous jobs. In this paper, we specifically focus on occupational and environmental reproductive health concerns. We write with the understanding that reproductive hazards can affect pregnant women, nonpregnant women, and men, as well as the health and development of young children. Emphasis is placed primarily on African American women, because information on Hispanic, Native American, and Asian women is very limited. We discuss the participation of women of color in the labor force, using the U.S. Department of Labor categories. We review specific occupational hazards associated with each category of work and briefly discuss environmental hazards, noting that communities of color are at a disproportionate risk of exposure. Finally, we present the consensus report of the Community Education Working Group from the Woods Hole Conference on Occupational and Environmental Reproductive Hazards.

Black or African American↗

[Labor supply and economic fluctuations: Brazil, 1979-1986].

"The purpose of this article is to study how the Brazilian labor supply responded to the business cycle of the period 1979-1986. In doing so, the article analyzes the growth and the structure of the Brazilian labor force as well as its demographic traits over that time span. The analysis focuses on the cyclical sensitivity of the labor force participation rate (LFPR) of particular labor force groups. The study breaks down the LFPR by age, sex, schooling and family income. The main finding is that the labor supply measured by the time series behavior of the LFPR is sensitive to the business cycle although the direction and the degree of responsiveness varies among labor force groups." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Age Factors↗

Occupational status scores: changes introduced by the inclusion of women.

This paper examines the impact of women's labor force participation on occupational scores by comparing occupational status scores based on the characteristics of the 1970 male labor force with a set of occupational status scores based on the characteristics of the total 1970 labor force. Although the two sets of scores are highly correlated, important differences are found in the scores for specific occupations as well as for major occupational groups. Using the tradional list of 12 major occupational categories, we find that the positions of clerical workers and craftsmen are reversed when status scores are derived from data on all incumbents in the labor force rather than on male incubents alone. The paper suggests that, with the increased participation of women in the labor force and the concomitant change in the sex composition of the work force, the traditional approaches to the measurement of occupational status based solely on male incumbents may no longer be valid for examining the occupational hierarchy of contemporary American society.

Female↗

Work disability in adults with cystic fibrosis.

Greater numbers of persons with cystic fibrosis (CF) reach adulthood and, therefore, actively participate in the labor force. In this study, we estimated labor force participation rates and determined risk factors for work disability among persons with CF. We recruited 49 (73%) of 67 adults followed at one of two hospital-based CF centers. We ascertained employment history and CF-attributed work disability by structured questionnaire. Independently, we reviewed medical records for demographics and illness severity indicators. We analyzed potential risk factors for work disability by logistic regression analysis. All of those studied reported past or present labor force participation, consistent with high work motivation. Complete cessation of work attributed to CF was reported by 17 (35%; 95% CI, 21 to 49%). Although 23 (47%; 95% CI, 32 to 60%) of those surveyed stated that CF had affected career choice, only nine respondents had ever received career counselling and 16 had ever discussed job choice with their physicians. After adjusting for standard measures of disease severity by multiple logistic regression, age, adult diagnosis of CF, female gender, and single marital status, analyzed as a group, provided significant additional explanatory power to a predictive model of disability risk (model chi square [4 d.f.] = 11.5, p < 0.05). Health care professionals who design interventions targeted at work disability among persons with CF should address demographic factors as well as illness severity and should assess the vocational needs of persons with CF and the potential benefit of career counselling.

Adult↗

[[The effect of demographic changes on the unemployment rate in Taiwan: 1978-1990]].

"The purpose of this paper is to compute the effects of changes in the composition of age, sex, and labor force participation rate, and education of population and labor force on the overall unemployment rate in Taiwan. The results show that the changes in the composition of age-sex and labor force participation rate have had an increasingly significant downward pressure on the overall unemployment rate. However, the compositional changes in...education [and sex] have exerted considerable upward pressure on the overall unemployment rate...." Recommendations for future policy directions are made. (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Age Distribution↗

Employment, parental responsibility, and psychological distress: a longitudinal study of married women.

This paper uses 1985-1988 panel data from 745 married women in the Detroit, Michigan, US, Metropolitan Area to examine the mental health effects of employment and parenting status changes. Contrary to popular belief, the transition to parenting is not directly related to increases in psychological distress. Changes in employment status, however, are. Women who significantly increase their labor force participation report lower levels of psychological distress over the study period, while women who significantly decrease their labor force participation report higher psychological distress. The effects of labor force changes on mental health are not all modified by parenting status or changes in parenting status. The transition to parenting and increased parenting responsibilities, however, are indirectly related to increased psychological distress insofar as they result in decreased labor force participation. The implications of these results are used to evaluate 4 competing perspectives on the relationship between roles, stress, and psychological functioning.

Americas↗

The impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on work loss in the United States.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a rapidly growing public health problem in the United States and elsewhere. Although direct costs of COPD are well documented, the impact of COPD and its severity on labor force participation is not well known. Using population-based data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), we determined the adjusted relationship between COPD (and its severity) and labor force participation in the U.S. We used data from 12,436 participants involved in NHANES III; 1,073 of these participants (8.6% of the total) reported COPD. These participants were 3.9% (95% confidence interval, 1.3% to 6.4%) less likely to be in the labor force than those without COPD. Increasing severity of COPD was associated with decreased probability of being in the labor force (p for linear trend = 0.001). Mild, moderate, and severe COPD was associated with a 3.4%, 3.9%, and 14.4% reduction in the labor force participation rate relative to those without COPD. These data suggest that COPD has a considerable adverse impact on work force participation. Based on these data, we estimate that, in 1994, COPD was responsible for work loss of approximately $9.9 billion in the U.S.

Absenteeism↗

The impact of children on the labour supply off married women: comparative estimates from European and U.S. data.

This paper presents estimates of the impact of the age pattern and level of fertility on the probability of labor force participation by married and cohabiting women in 12 eastern and western European countries and the US. Logit models for labor force participation probabilities are estimated conditional on age, age at marriage or union, educational attainment, current parity, and number of years in parity, using data on married and cohabiting women from the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Comparative Study of World Fertility Surveys. The estimated models are used to simulate the age profiles of labor force participation conditional on the level and timing of fertility. The simulation results are presented in a series of charts grouped according to similarities in the effects of fertility on the age profiles of labor force participation. Four distinct patterns are identified that depend on the empirical significance of distinct number-of-children and age-of-youngest-child effects. The role of family policies and the extent to which the labor supply reductions associated with childbearing can be interpreted as opportunity costs are considered.

Age Factors↗

Child labor. A matter of health and human rights.

Despite the existence of laws in India that prohibit the labor of children under age 14, 70 to 115 million children between the ages of 5 and 14 are estimated to be part of India's labor force. Child labor in the agriculture sector accounts for 80% of child laborers in India and 70% of working children globally. From May 2001 to July 2001, Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) investigated the health experiences of 100 children in hybrid cottonseed production in rural Andhra Pradesh. Eighty-eight percent of the survey participants were girls, ages 7 to 14. PHR found that children worked on average 12 hours a day, were frequently exposed to pesticides, and were not provided with safety equipment, not even shoes or water to wash their hands and clothes. Children reported having frequent headaches and dizziness and skin and eye irritations after pesticide spraying. All 100 children reported that they were unable to go to school during the hybrid cottonseed season due to work demands. Ninety-four children reported to PHR that they would rather be in school. In addition, a majority of child workers interviewed by PHR reported physical and/or verbal abuse by their employers. Moreover, PHR interviews with representatives of multinational and national companies revealed knowledge of child labor practices for up to 10 years. Child labor is a significant health and human rights problem for children in India. The progressive elimination of child labor practices will require the support of a wide cross-section of civil society.

Adolescent↗

Transience and settlement: Singapore's foreign labor policy.

"Foreigners constitute 15 percent of the population and over 20 percent of the labor force in Singapore.... This large foreign labor force is managed by a comprehensive and highly selective foreign labor policy, which is described in this paper. The strict enforcement of a guestworker policy of transience on the one hand, and the liberal encouragement of settlement on the other, are the twin pillars of this policy. Seen originally as a dispensable appendage to a labor-scarce economy, foreign labor has now become integral to the economic and increasingly, population policy of the country, as evidenced by the recent announcement of a national policy to ¿attract foreign talent'."

Asia↗

Trends in retirement age in the United States, 1955-1993, by sex and race.

To meet the need for a labor-force-based time series on the average age at retirement differentiated by sex and race, net labor force withdrawal rates (NWR) are calculated on a cohort basis for periods of time. The NWR are used to calculate the medium age of exit from the labor force. From the late 1950s through the late 1980s, declines of about 3-4 years occurred among Black and White women and men. These results are very similar to those obtained from Social Security data. The decline slowed during the 1970s and leveled off during the 1980s and early 1990s. The findings are a valuable addition to the meager knowledge available now about the retirement behavior of women and Blacks. The labor force and the Social Security time series of the average age of retirement are useful, especially in combination, to private and public planners and policymakers.

Black or African American↗