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Exploring China's Clean Air Act and associated cardiovascular disease risk: a prospective, quasi-experimental, and causal inference modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Substantial improvements in air quality have been recorded following the implementation of China's Clean Air Act (CCAA) in 2013. However, the association between CCAA implementation and individual-level cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remains unclear. We aimed to examine the long-term association between CCAA implementation and individual-level predicted CVD risk. METHODS: In this prospective, quasi-experimental study, we used data from the China Kadoorie Biobank, a prospective cohort study that recruited participants from five urban and five rural areas across China between 2004 and 2008, with three resurveys conducted after the baseline survey (in 2008, 2013-14, and 2020-21). We included 34 862 individuals (mean age 51·3 years) who participated in at least one resurvey and had no history of CVD at baseline. Participants were classified into intervention (n=25 497) and control (n=9365) groups based on the local government's targets for particulate matter reduction. We estimated the 10-year risk of incident CVD morbidity or mortality using a validated risk prediction model. We used a difference-in-difference model to assess the long-term association between CCAA implementation and predicted risk, with adjustments made for regional confounders and individual-level characteristics, including demographics, lifestyle factors, medical history, and indoor air pollution exposure. The relationship between changes in long-term exposure to PM2·5, PM10, and O3 and predicted risk after CCAA implementation was analysed using a linear model. The estimated risk differences associated with air pollutant changes were estimated based on the magnitude of changes and their corresponding effect sizes. FINDINGS: After the CCAA was implemented, PM2·5 and PM10 concentrations declined in both groups, but O3 concentrations increased. The intervention group showed a 3·95% (95% CI 3·18-4·72%) lower increase in predicted risk than the control group, with larger estimated differences under stricter enforcement. Between 2013 and 2021, each 10 μg/m3 change in PM2·5 concentration was positively associated with a 1·80 (1·34-2·27) percentage point change in predicted CVD risk, whereas each 10 μg/m3 change in PM10 concentration was associated with a 1·24 (0·84-1·63) percentage point change and each 10 μg/m3 change in O3 concentration with a 0·58 (0·33-0·83) percentage point change. Overall, the observed changes in air pollutants during the study period were associated with an average 6·6 percentage point reduction in predicted CVD risk. INTERPRETATION: The CCAA and improved air quality were associated with a slower increase in predicted CVD risk, supporting the necessity for stricter, multipollutant air quality policies to maximise public health benefits. FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Noncommunicable Chronic Diseases-National Science and Technology Major Project, National Key R&D Program of China, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, and UK Wellcome Trust.

Journal Article

Restrictive vs Liberal Transfusion Strategy in Traumatic Brain Injury: A Secondary Analysis of the TRAIN Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Anemia is a prevalent condition among patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI); however, the optimal hemoglobin (Hb) threshold to initiate red blood cell transfusion (RBCT) is not well defined. OBJECTIVE: To assess which of 2 different Hb thresholds for guiding RBCT in patients with anemia and TBI is associated with a more favorable neurological outcome. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a preplanned secondary analysis of the Transfusion Strategies in Acute Brain Injured Patients multicentric randomized clinical trial, conducted in 72 intensive care units across 22 countries between September 1, 2017, and December 31, 2022. Follow-up was completed June 30, 2023. Only patients with TBI were included in the present analysis, conducted from February to May 2025. INTERVENTIONS: Liberal (transfusion at Hb <9 g/dL [to convert to g/L, multiply by 10.0]) vs restrictive (transfusion at Hb <7 g/dL) RBCT strategy over a maximum of 28 days. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was the occurrence of unfavorable neurological outcome, defined as a Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended score of 1 to 5 (overall range, 1-8, with higher scores indicating more favorable outcome) at 180 days. In addition, 14 prespecified serious adverse events, including infection and cerebral ischemia, were assessed. Data were analyzed using both the intention-to-treat and per-protocol principles. RESULTS: Of 486 patients who presented with TBI (mean [SD] age, 46.8 [17.6] years; 347 [71.4%] male), 475 were included in the primary outcome analysis: 236 were randomized to the liberal transfusion strategy group and 239 to the restrictive transfusion strategy group. Both groups had similar baseline characteristics. In total, 534 RBCTs were administered in the liberal transfusion strategy group, compared with 246 RBCTs in the restrictive group. At 180 days after randomization, 138 patients (58.5%) in the liberal group had unfavorable neurological outcome compared with 161 patients (67.4%) in the restrictive group (relative risk [RR], 0.86 [95% CI, 0.75-1.00]; P&#x2009;=&#x2009;.047; fragility index&#x2009;=&#x2009;1). There were no significant differences in the occurrence of secondary outcomes (eg, 28-day mortality: 42 of 240 [17.5%] vs 51 of 244 [20.9%]; RR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.58-1.21]; P&#x2009;=&#x2009;.34) or serious adverse events (eg, RR, 1.13 [95% CI, 0.88-1.43]; P&#x2009;=&#x2009;.34 for infection and RR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.40-1.90]; P&#x2009;=&#x2009;.72 for cerebral ischemia). After adjustment for several confounders, being randomized to the liberal group was associated with a lower observed probability of unfavorable neurological outcome (odds ratio, 0.60 [95% CI, 0.38-0.94]; P&#x2009;=&#x2009;.03). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this secondary analysis of a multicenter randomized clinical trial, a liberal RBCT strategy was associated with a lower risk than a restrictive RBCT strategy of unfavorable neurological outcome at 180 days among patients with TBI. These findings should be interpreted with caution in light of the inherent uncertainty of the estimate. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02968654.

Humans

Venetoclax added to dose-adjusted EPOCH-R for newly diagnosed double-hit lymphomas: phase 2 results from ALLIANCE A051701, an open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 2-3 trial.

BACKGROUND: High-grade B-cell lymphoma with rearrangements of MYC and BCL2 and/or BCL6, known as double-hit lymphoma, is a highly aggressive malignancy with poor outcomes after standard chemoimmunotherapy. We aimed to study whether the addition of the BCL2-inhibitor venetoclax to chemoimmunotherapy in patients with double-hit lymphoma resulted in superior efficacy compared with chemotherapy alone. METHODS: ALLIANCE A051701 is an open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 2-3 trial in separate cohorts of patients with double-hit lymphoma and patients with double-expressor lymphoma. In this analysis, we report phase 2 results from the double-hit lymphoma cohort. Patients aged 18-80 years with newly diagnosed double-hit lymphoma and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status 0-2 were recruited from 41 hospitals and outpatient clinics in the USA. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive DA-EPOCH-R (dose-adjusted etoposide, prednisone, vincristine, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, and rituximab) either alone (DA-EPOCH-R group) or with venetoclax (DA-EPOCH-R plus venetoclax group) using permuted block randomisation schedule. All patients and investigators were aware of group assignment. DA-EPOCH-R was administered on a 21-day schedule for up to six total cycles. Venetoclax was given as 600 mg by mouth daily on days 4-8 of cycle 1 and on days 1-5 of cycles 2-6. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival in the modified intent-to-treat population inclusive of all eligible patients with centrally confirmed double-hit lymphoma. The safety analysis population consisted of all evaluable patients who received at least one dose of protocol treatment. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03984448) and is closed to enrolment. FINDINGS: 36 patients were randomly assigned to the DA-EPOCH-R group and 37 to the DA-EPOCH-R plus venetoclax group between Oct 22, 2019, and Sept 18, 2020. Median age was 65 years (IQR 56-73) and baseline demographic factors were well balanced between groups, with 30 (45%) female and 36 (55%) male patients. Most patients (59 [89%]) were white, two (3%) were Asian, one (2%) was Black or African American, and four (6%) had unknown or unreported ethnicity. The majority of patients had MYC-BCL2 double-hit lymphoma (59 [89%] patients), advanced stage disease (57 [86%] patients), and high-intermediate/high-risk IPI score (42 [64%] patients). Median follow-up was 34&#xb7;7 months (IQR 30&#xb7;1-36&#xb7;8). Median progression-free survival was 28&#xb7;4 months (95% CI 5&#xb7;2-not estimable) in the DA-EPOCH-R group (n=30) and 7&#xb7;7 months (95% CI 4&#xb7;7-NE) in the DA-EPOCH-R plus venetoclax group (n=36; hazard ratio [HR] 1&#xb7;13, 95% CI 0&#xb7;53-2&#xb7;37; p=0&#xb7;75). Deaths on treatment occurred in one (3%) patient in the DA-EPOCH-R group (due to dyspnoea; possibly related to treatment) and six (17%) patients in the DA-EPOCH-R plus venetoclax group (four due to sepsis [three at least possible related and one unrelated], two due to cardiac arrest [at least possibly related]), prompting early closure of the double-hit lymphoma cohort. The most common grade 3-4 non-haematological adverse event was febrile neutropenia, occurring in 15 (43%) of 35 patients in the DA-EPOCH-R plus venetoclax group and 11 (37%) of 30 patients in the DA-EPOCH-R group. The median overall survival has not been reached in either group. The 24-month overall survival estimates were 72% (95% CI 52-85) in the DA-EPOCH-R group compared with 52% (95% CI 33-68) in the DA-EPOCH-R plus venetoclax group (HR 2&#xb7;49, 95% CI 1&#xb7;03-6&#xb7;04; p=0&#xb7;038). INTERPRETATION: The addition of venetoclax to DA-EPOCH-R resulted in excess mortality, prompting early study closure. Robust accrual shows that prospective multicentre trials are feasible in double-hit lymphoma, and the outcomes in the DA-EPOCH-R group serve as a benchmark for future studies. FUNDING: National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health.

Humans

Long-term hormone therapy for perimenopausal and postmenopausal women.

BACKGROUND: Hormone therapy is widely provided to control menopausal symptoms and has been used for the management and prevention of cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis and dementia in older women. This is an updated version of a Cochrane review first published in 2005. OBJECTIVES: To assess the long-term effects of prolonged use (at least one year) of hormone therapy on mortality, cardiovascular outcomes, cancer, gallbladder disease, fractures and cognition in perimenopausal and postmenopausal women. SEARCH METHODS: We used the Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility Group Specialised Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, three other databases and two trial registers, together with reference checking, citation searching and contact with study authors to identify the studies included in the review. The latest search date was 26 September 2024. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised, double-blind trials in which peri- or postmenopausal women took hormone therapy or placebo for at least one year. We included various oestrogen formulations, with or without progestogens. We focused on studies assessing hormone therapy's effects on long-term clinical outcomes, including death, coronary events and cancer. Hormone therapy's efficacy in managing menopausal symptoms was beyond the scope of this review, and is assessed in other Cochrane reviews. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently selected studies, assessed risk of bias and extracted data. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) for dichotomous data and mean differences (MDs) for continuous data, along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We assessed the certainty of the evidence using GRADE. MAIN RESULTS: We included 24 studies - with two newly added in this update - involving 45,660 participants. We derived nearly 70% of the data from two well-conducted studies: the Heart and Estrogen/progestin Replacement Study (HERS 1998) and the large, multi-component Women's Health Initiative research programme, which included two hormone therapy arms (WHI 1998). Across all the studies, most participants were postmenopausal American women with one or more comorbidities. The mean participant age in most studies was over 60 years. Only one included study focused on perimenopausal women. We present full results for all included studies with available data in the main review. The results presented below are drawn from WHI 1998, in which the combined hormone therapy arm and the oestrogen-only arm were run concurrently, with women assigned to the appropriate trial based on their uterus status. One study with 16,608 postmenopausal women with an intact uterus compared combined continuous hormone therapy (conjugated equine oestrogen and medroxyprogesterone acetate) to placebo, and measured outcomes at an average of 5.6 years of follow-up. Based on this study, combined continuous hormone therapy probably makes little to no difference to the risk of a coronary event (RR 1.17, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.44; moderate-certainty evidence). It may increase the risk of stroke (RR 1.39, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.09; low-certainty evidence) and venous thromboembolism (RR 2.03, 95% CI 1.55 to 6.64; low-certainty evidence). Compared to placebo, combined continuous hormone therapy probably increases the risk of breast cancer (RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.56; moderate-certainty evidence) and probably makes little to no difference to the risk of lung cancer (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.46; moderate-certainty evidence). It may increase gallbladder disease requiring surgery (RR 1.64, 95% CI 1.30 to 2.06; 14,203 participants; low-certainty evidence), and probably reduces the risk of all clinical fractures (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.86; moderate-certainty evidence). One study including 10,739 postmenopausal women who had undergone a hysterectomy compared oestrogen-only (conjugated equine oestrogen) hormone therapy to placebo, and measured outcomes at an average of seven years' follow-up. Based on this study, oestrogen-only hormone therapy probably makes little to no difference to the risk of coronary events (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.13), venous thromboembolism (RR 1.32, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.74) and breast cancer (RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.01), all with moderate-certainty evidence. It may make little to no difference to the risk of lung cancer (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.48; low-certainty evidence). Oestrogen-only hormone therapy probably increases the risk of stroke (RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.67) and gallbladder disease requiring surgery (RR 1.78, 95% CI 1.42 to 2.24), and probably reduces the risk of all clinical fractures (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.80), all with moderate-certainty evidence. We judged most included studies to have a low risk of bias for most domains. The overall certainty of evidence for the main comparisons was moderate. The main limitation was that only about 30% of women were 50 to 59 years old at baseline, the age group most likely to consider hormone therapy for vasomotor symptoms. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Long-term follow-up of women using hormone therapy suggests that the risk profiles vary between combined hormone therapy and oestrogen-only therapy. Oestrogen-only hormone therapy probably makes little to no difference to coronary events, and probably increases the risk of stroke and gallbladder disease. It probably makes little to no difference in the risk of breast cancer, and probably reduces the risk of all fractures. Combined hormone therapy may increase the risk of thromboembolism and probably increases the risk of breast cancer. These results should be interpreted with caution as they are based on one study using oral hormone therapy, which may not represent the risks of the hormone therapy currently used in clinical practice.

Humans

Cardiorespiratory training for people with stroke.

RATIONALE: Low levels of cardiorespiratory fitness are common after stroke and are associated with post-stroke disability and increased risk of secondary stroke. Cardiorespiratory training interventions aim to increase cardiorespiratory fitness, improve physical function, reduce disability, and help prevent future strokes. Clinical guidelines recommend exercise as part of lifestyle modification for secondary prevention, and strongly recommend exercise for rehabilitation. This review is one of three reviews that were originally a single review on physical fitness training for stroke. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective of this review was to determine whether cardiorespiratory training after stroke has an effect on death, disability, adverse events, risk factors, fitness, walking, and indices of physical function when compared to a non-exercise control. SEARCH METHODS: In April 2025, we searched nine bibliographic databases and two trials registers to identify studies for inclusion in the review. We checked reference lists, tracked citations, and contacted experts. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials comparing cardiorespiratory training interventions with usual care, no intervention, or a non-exercise intervention in people with stroke. OUTCOMES: Our critical outcomes were death, disability, adverse events, risk factors, fitness, walking, and indices of physical function, assessed at the end of the intervention and the end of the longest follow-up. RISK OF BIAS: We used the Cochrane RoB 1 tool to assess the risk of bias in the included studies. SYNTHESIS METHODS: The studies evaluated different comparisons (e.g. cardiorespiratory training versus no intervention/waiting list control or versus attention control or versus usual care), which we synthesised into a single comparison: cardiorespiratory training versus control. We used random-effects meta-analysis on arm-level data (risk difference (RD) for dichotomous data, and mean difference (MD) or standardised mean difference (SMD) for continuous data, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs)). For outcome data that we did not meta-analyse, we followed Synthesis Without Meta-analysis (SWiM) guidance. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence for critical outcomes. INCLUDED STUDIES: We included 53 studies (2672 participants, with an average age of 61.9 years). Most studies recruited ambulatory participants in the early subacute (7 days to 3 months) or chronic (> 6 months) phases of recovery. Exercise duration recommendations were met in 49 studies, and frequency recommendations in 48. Twenty-eight studies lacked balanced exposure between groups. Programme duration was 12 weeks or more in 16 studies (maximum: 24 weeks). Sixteen studies had a post-intervention follow-up period (12 weeks to 12 months from baseline). One study planned a six-month follow-up but did not report it. SYNTHESIS OF RESULTS: Cardiorespiratory training does not increase or decrease deaths at the end of intervention (RD 0.00, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.01; 36 studies, 1563 participants; high-certainty evidence) or the end of follow-up (RD -0.00, 95% CI -0.02 to 0.02; 10 studies, 713 participants; high-certainty evidence). Cardiorespiratory training may improve indices of disability slightly at the end of intervention (SMD 0.35, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.57; 17 studies, 1073 participants; very low-certainty evidence), but the evidence is very uncertain. Re-expressed using the Barthel Index (0 to 20), the equivalent effect is MD 1.68, 95% CI 0.59 to 2.74. It is unclear if the effect is clinically meaningful (the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) is +1.85). The effect is unclear at the end of follow-up (SMD -0.14, 95% CI -0.36 to 0.08; 5 studies, 347 participants; low-certainty evidence). Cardiorespiratory training does not increase or decrease the incidence of secondary cardiovascular or cerebrovascular events at the end of intervention (RD -0.00, 95% CI -0.03 to 0.02; 8 studies, 544 participants; high-certainty evidence) and probably does not affect them at the end of follow-up (RD -0.02, 95% CI -0.08 to 0.04; 4 studies, 412 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). It is very uncertain whether cardiorespiratory training affects systolic blood pressure (mmHg) at the end of intervention (MD -2.12, 95% CI -5.81 to 1.57; 9 studies, 535 participants; very low-certainty evidence) (MCID -2 mmHg) or follow-up (MD 0.93, 95% CI -4.30 to 6.16; 3 studies, 155 participants; very low-certainty evidence); the 95% CIs include the MCID. Cardiorespiratory training probably results in a slight improvement in cardiorespiratory fitness (VO2 ml/kg/min) at the end of intervention (MD 2.37, 95% CI 1.39 to 3.36; 13 studies, 608 participants; moderate-certainty evidence); it is unclear if the effect is clinically meaningful (MCID +3.5 ml/kg/min). The effect may be similar at the end of follow-up (MD 2.76, 95% CI 1.36 to 4.16; 5 studies, 237 participants; low-certainty evidence). Subgroup analysis favoured longer interventions. Cardiorespiratory training probably results in a slight increase in comfortable walking speed (metres per second) at the end of intervention (MD 0.08, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.12; 16 studies, 647 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), but the effect is not clinically meaningful (MCID +0.13). The effect is unclear at the end of follow-up (MD 0.02, 95% CI -0.05 to 0.10; 3 studies, 182 participants; low-certainty evidence). Cardiorespiratory training may improve indices of balance at the end of intervention (SMD 0.31, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.47; 18 studies, 772 participants; very low-certainty evidence), but the evidence is very uncertain. Re-expressing using the Berg Balance Scale, the equivalent effect is MD 2.09, 95% CI 1.10 to 3.07; and it is unclear if it is clinically meaningful (MCID of +2). The effect is unclear at the end of follow-up (MD 0.90, 95% CI -1.32 to 3.12; 6 studies, 253 participants; low-certainty evidence). Overall, our certainty about the evidence is limited for most outcomes by imprecision (small number of studies and participants) or risks of bias (e.g. imbalanced exposure doses) or both. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Cardiorespiratory training after stroke does not affect mortality or the incidence of secondary events at the end of the aerobic exercise training programme or end of follow-up. It may increase fitness, reduce disability, increase walking speed, and improve balance at the end of intervention, but it is unclear if these improvements are clinically meaningful. Further well-designed randomised trials are needed to fully understand the potential benefits and long-term effects of cardiorespiratory training and the optimal exercise prescription. FUNDING: No dedicated funding REGISTRATION: Protocol (and previous versions) available via DOI 10.1002/14651858.CD003316.

Humans