Search PubMed⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “machine learning prediction model”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources

GUANinE v1.1 reveals complementarity of supervised and genomic language models.

There has been much debate about the benefits of supervised versus unsupervised learning on genomes. Determining which is better in what contexts requires developing comprehensive benchmarks spanning functional and evolutionary tasks. Importantly, such benchmarks need large sample sizes to enable well-powered ranking of models. Having developed and applied such a benchmark here (GUANinE v1.1), we conclusively demonstrate each paradigm offers key advantages and outperforms on certain tasks. In accordance with training, supervised sequence-to-function models exhibit strong performance when annotating functional states characterized by chromatin accessibility or histone marks, while self-supervised language models outperform on evolutionary conservation. Our hundreds of new evaluations in this v1.1 expansion provide evidence for a tradeoff between input context size and model parameter count for a fixed compute budget, which we depict with new metrics such as kiloparameters/base pair. We also construct two new large-scale variant interpretation tasks in v1.1: cadd-snv measuring deleteriousness, and clinvar-snv measuring clinical pathogenicity. We find that conservation scores, and by extension, genomic language models, predict deleteriousness well, but successfully translating deleteriousness predictions to pathogenicity remains challenging. GUANinE v1.1 newly evaluates dozens of pretrained genomic models, and we conclude that moderate-context hybrid or post-trained language models may define the next era of machine learning in genomics.

Genomics↗

PMGen: from peptide-MHC structure prediction to peptide generation.

MOTIVATION: Accurate structural modeling of peptide-major histocompatibility complex (pMHC) complexes is essential for structure-driven immunotherapy design, yet current prediction tools suffer from narrow class coverage, restricted peptide lengths, insufficient accuracy, and a lack of built-in structure-aware peptide sampling. Consequently, most mimotope and altered peptide ligand designs rely solely on sequence substitution, leaving spatial and biophysical insights from pMHC structures largely unexploited. RESULTS: We introduce peptide-MHC generator (PMGen), an integrated framework for structure prediction and structure-guided design of variable-length peptides across MHC Class I and II. PMGen enforces anchor constraints within AlphaFold2 through two complementary strategies, initial guess and template engineering, achieving state-of-the-art structural fidelity without model fine-tuning. On a comprehensive benchmark, PMGen outperforms all existing methods, yielding median peptide-core Cα RMSDs of 0.62 Å for MHC-I and 0.33 Å for MHC-II. We show that PMGen can recover incorrectly predicted anchor positions and that AlphaFold pLDDT scores enable sequence-independent binding-core identification. Applied to a published neoantigen/wild-type pair, PMGen accurately captures mutation-induced conformational changes. Beyond structure prediction, we show that ProteinMPNN sampling on PMGen-predicted backbones yields higher affinity peptides while preserving the parental 3D conformation. Using PMGen to generate 63 817 high-confidence pMHC structures as training data, we further improve ProteinMPNN's peptide sequence recovery from 0.14 to 0.64 on a test set of 85 unseen MHC-I alleles, highlighting the value of accurate predicted structures for downstream machine learning tasks. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: PMGen is freely available at https://github.com/soedinglab/PMGen, with an interactive Colab notebook at https://colab.research.google.com/github/soedinglab/PMGen/blob/master/colab.ipynb.

Peptides↗

Survival prediction for clear cell renal cell carcinoma based on deep multimodal synergistic survival network.

Objective.To propose a deep multimodal synergistic survival analysis framework (Deep Multimodal Synergistic Survival Network, DMSSN) to achieve accurate prognostic analysis for clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC).Methods.This study (DMSSN) utilized matched multimodal data from the Cancer Genome Atlas-KIRC database, including CT imaging data, whole slide images, copy number variation (CNV) features, and clinical data. Deep Canonical Correlation Analysis was employed to map heterogeneous modalities into a shared latent space. Contrastive learning was introduced to enhance semantic consistency across multimodal features, and a gating network was utilized for the adaptive fusion of multimodal information to achieve precise survival risk prediction for patients.Results.Experimental results demonstrated that DMSSN achieved a Concordance Index (C-index) of 0.8153 ± 0.0994, with a Log-rank testp-value of 1.6553×10-11. DMSSN exhibited significant performance advantages over traditional statistical methods like Log-rank-Cox (0.7055 ± 0.0670) and machine learning methods such as Random Survival Forest (RSF) (0.6836 ± 0.1048). Furthermore, in comparison with similar deep learning approaches, DMSSN outperformed late fusion strategies (0.7493 ± 0.1211) and discrete-time survival models such as DeepHit (0.7655 ± 0.1041) and Nnet-surv (0.7694 ± 0.0635). Notably, DMSSN still achieved the best predictive performance when compared to the classic deep survival model DeepSurv (0.7919 ± 0.0978) and advanced state-of-the-art multimodal fusion frameworks like Context-Aware Transformer (0.7735 ± 0.0818) and Multimodal Co-Attention Transformer (0.8102 ± 0.0972). Ablation studies showed that removing any single modality led to a decline in performance, with the largest numerical decrease occurring after removing CT imaging features (C-index decreased to 0.7327), validating the complementarity of multimodal data and the pivotal role of radiomic features in prognostic assessment. Module ablation experiments further confirmed the effectiveness of the core components.Conclusion:By effectively integrating imaging, pathology, genomic, and clinical features, the DMSSN framework demonstrates superior performance and robustness in the survival prediction of ccRCC.

Carcinoma, Renal Cell↗

Blood-based DNA methylation and exposure risk scores predict PTSD with high accuracy in military and civilian cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Incorporating genomic data into risk prediction has become an increasingly useful approach for rapid identification of individuals most at risk for complex disorders such as PTSD. Our goal was to develop and validate Methylation Risk Scores (MRS) using machine learning to distinguish individuals who have PTSD from those who do not. METHODS: Elastic Net was used to develop three risk score models using a discovery dataset (n = 1226; 314 cases, 912 controls) comprised of 5 diverse cohorts with available blood-derived DNA methylation (DNAm) measured on the Illumina Epic BeadChip. The first risk score, exposure and methylation risk score (eMRS) used cumulative and childhood trauma exposure and DNAm variables; the second, methylation-only risk score (MoRS) was based solely on DNAm data; the third, methylation-only risk scores with adjusted exposure variables (MoRSAE) utilized DNAm data adjusted for the two exposure variables. The potential of these risk scores to predict future PTSD based on pre-deployment data was also assessed. External validation of risk scores was conducted in four independent cohorts. RESULTS: The eMRS model showed the highest accuracy (92%), precision (91%), recall (87%), and f1-score (89%) in classifying PTSD using 3730 features. While still highly accurate, the MoRS (accuracy = 89%) using 3728 features and MoRSAE (accuracy = 84%) using 4150 features showed a decline in classification power. eMRS significantly predicted PTSD in one of the four independent cohorts, the BEAR cohort (beta = 0.6839, p-0.003), but not in the remaining three cohorts. Pre-deployment risk scores from all models (eMRS, beta = 1.92; MoRS, beta = 1.99 and MoRSAE, beta = 1.77) displayed a significant (p < 0.001) predictive power for post-deployment PTSD. CONCLUSION: Results, especially those from the eMRS, reinforce earlier findings that methylation and trauma are interconnected and can be leveraged to increase the correct classification of those with vs. without PTSD. Moreover, our models can potentially be a valuable tool in predicting the future risk of developing PTSD. As more data become available, including additional molecular, environmental, and psychosocial factors in these scores may enhance their accuracy in predicting the condition and, relatedly, improve their performance in independent cohorts.

DNA methylation↗

MetaFX: feature extraction from whole-genome metagenomic sequencing data.

MOTIVATION: Microbial communities consist of thousands of microorganisms and viruses and have a tight connection with an environment, such as gut microbiota modulation of host body metabolism. However, the direct relationship between the presence of certain microorganism and the host state often remains unknown. Toolkits using reference-based approaches are limited to microbes present in databases. Reference-free methods often require enormous resources for metagenomic assembly or results in many poorly interpretable features based on k-mers. RESULTS: Here we present MetaFX-an open-source library for feature extraction from whole-genome metagenomic sequencing data and classification of groups of samples. Using a large volume of metagenomic samples deposited in databases, MetaFX compares samples grouped by metadata criteria (e.g. disease, treatment, etc.) and constructs genomic features distinct for certain types of communities. Features constructed based on statistical k-mer analysis and de Bruijn graphs partition. Those features are used in machine learning models for classification of novel samples. Extracted features can be visualized on de Bruijn graphs and annotated for providing biological insights. We demonstrate the utility of MetaFX by building classification models for 590 human gut samples with inflammatory bowel disease. Our results outperform the previous research disease prediction accuracy up to 17%, and improves classification results compared to taxonomic analysis by 9&#xb1;10% on average. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: MetaFX is a feature extraction toolkit applicable for metagenomic datasets analysis and samples classification. The source code, test data, and relevant information for MetaFX are freely accessible at https://github.com/ctlab/metafx under the MIT License. Alternatively, MetaFX can be obtained via http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16949369.

Metagenomics↗

Artificial intelligence techniques for bioinformatics.

This review provides an overview of the ways in which techniques from artificial intelligence (AI) can be usefully employed in bioinformatics, both for modelling biological data and for making new discoveries. The paper covers three techniques: symbolic machine learning approaches (nearest neighbour and identification tree techniques), artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms. Each technique is introduced and supported with examples taken from the bioinformatics literature. These examples include folding prediction, viral protease cleavage prediction, classification, multiple sequence alignment and microarray gene expression analysis.

Algorithms↗

Predicting extubation outcome in preterm newborns: a comparison of neural networks with clinical expertise and statistical modeling.

Even though ventilator technology and monitoring of premature infants has improved immensely over the past decades, there are still no standards for weaning and determining optimal extubation time for those infants. Approximately 30% of intubated preterm infants will fail attempted extubation, requiring reintubation and resuming of mechanical ventilation. A machine-learning approach using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to aid in extubation decision making is hereby proposed. Using expert opinion, 51 variables were identified as being relevant for the decision of whether to extubate an infant who is on mechanical ventilation. The data on 183 premature infants, born between 1999 and 2002, were collected by review of medical charts. The ANN extubation model was compared with alternative statistical modeling using multivariate logistic regression and also with the clinician's own predictive insight using sensitivity analysis and receiver operating characteristic curves. The optimal ANN model used 13 parameters and achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 (out-of-sample validation), comparing favorably with multivariate logistic regression. It also compared well with the clinician's expertise, which raises the possibility of being useful as an automated alert tool. Because an ANN learns directly from previous data obtained in the institution where it is to be used, this makes it particularly amenable for application to evidence-based medicine. Given the variety of practices and equipment being used in different hospitals, this may be particularly relevant in the context of caring for preterm newborns who are on mechanical ventilation.

Decision Making↗

Potential assessment of the "support vector machine" method in forecasting ambient air pollutant trends.

Monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters are popular and important topics of atmospheric and environmental research today due to the health impact caused by exposing to air pollutants existing in urban air. The accurate models for air pollutant prediction are needed because such models would allow forecasting and diagnosing potential compliance or non-compliance in both short- and long-term aspects. Artificial neural networks (ANN) are regarded as reliable and cost-effective method to achieve such tasks and have produced some promising results to date. Although ANN has addressed more attentions to environmental researchers, its inherent drawbacks, e.g., local minima, over-fitting training, poor generalization performance, determination of the appropriate network architecture, etc., impede the practical application of ANN. Support vector machine (SVM), a novel type of learning machine based on statistical learning theory, can be used for regression and time series prediction and have been reported to perform well by some promising results. The work presented in this paper aims to examine the feasibility of applying SVM to predict air pollutant levels in advancing time series based on the monitored air pollutant database in Hong Kong downtown area. At the same time, the functional characteristics of SVM are investigated in the study. The experimental comparisons between the SVM model and the classical radial basis function (RBF) network demonstrate that the SVM is superior to the conventional RBF network in predicting air quality parameters with different time series and of better generalization performance than the RBF model.

Air Pollutants↗

Fine-grained structural classification of biosynthetic gene cluster-encoded products.

MOTIVATION: Biosynthetic gene clusters (BGCs) are responsible the biosynthesis of many natural products, including a multitude of effective therapeutics and their precursors. Advances in genomic data collection as well as computational techniques have made it possible to identify BGCs at scale. However, accurately determining the types of BGC-encoded products from genomic content remains elusive. RESULTS: Here, we introduce BGC annotation tool (BGCat), a machine learning method for fine-grained structural classification of BGC-encoded products, leveraging the NPClassifier natural product nomenclature. Our method leverages a pre-trained protein language model for creating meaningful gene representations and a deep neural network for class label prediction. We show the method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in coarse-grained product classification and is effective for detailed classification. We implement a clustering-based augmentation strategy for BGC-product relationships, addressing a crucial gap in the available datasets. We then introduce the concept of product class profiles of gene cluster families (GCFs), associating each GCF with a probabilistic distribution of product types and offering a new perspective on GCF functions. Lastly, we use BGCat to provide new product class labels for over 100k BGCs in antiSMASH DB that presently have minimal information about their products. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The source code and trained model weights are freely available at https://github.com/HassounLab/BGCat.

Multigene Family↗

Large-scale predictions of secretory proteins from mammalian genomic and EST sequences.

Machine learning techniques have improved predictions of secretory proteins from protein, genomic and expressed sequence tag (EST) sequences. Artificial neural networks, physical sequence analysis using high-performance optimization, and hidden Markov models identify extremely variable signal peptides (the vehicles of protein transport across the endoplasmic reticulum membrane), transmembrane segments, and specific extracellular and intracellular domains as indicators of possible roles in the intercellular and intracellular chemical signaling pathways. The major role of peptide hormones, blood coagulation factors, carcinogenesis agents, and other secretory proteins in orchestrating multicellular life indicates pharmacological potential in the cure of major diseases and numerous biotechnological applications.

Animals↗

Deriving the expected utility of a predictive model when the utilities are uncertain.

Predictive models are often constructed from clinical databases with the goal of eventually helping make better clinical decisions. Evaluating models using decision theory is therefore natural. When constructing a model using statistical and machine learning methods, however, we are often uncertain about precisely how the model will be used. Thus, decision-independent measures of classification performance, such as the area under an ROC curve, are popular. As a complementary method of evaluation, we investigate techniques for deriving the expected utility of a model under uncertainty about the model's utilities. We demonstrate an example of the application of this approach to the evaluation of two models that diagnose coronary artery disease.

Artificial Intelligence↗

A machine learning approach to identify key epigenetic transcripts for ageing research in human blood (Epitage).

DNA methylation is an established biomarker of human ageing and is used by a variety of tools to identify meaningful epigenetic signals. We investigated whether analysing CpGs grouped by transcript as functional units could generate a ranked list of transcripts most correlated with age that might otherwise be overlooked in genome-wide CpG-based studies. Here we present Epitage ( https://github.com/a00s/epitage ), a continuously updated ranked list of transcripts built from the GSE87571 dataset (714 whole-blood samples, ages 14-94 years) through intensive testing with machine-learning models. To support reproducible analyses, we developed ugPlot ( https://github.com/a00s/ugplot ), an open-source R/Shiny tool with a graphical user interface that automates model training, testing, and comparison. Initially, we identified 48 transcripts across 13 genes, with some transcripts from the genes OBSCN, PRRT1, and SPTBN4 showing better predictive performance when multiple associated CpGs were analysed together rather than individually. In contrast, for the majority of transcripts, a dominant individual CpG still showed a higher Spearman correlation with age, as seen in established ageing genes such as ELOVL2, FHL2, and TRIM59. Epitage is a transcript-ranking list based on the methylation patterns observed in the analysed dataset. It provides a reproducible framework for prioritising transcripts associated with human ageing and for guiding future epigenetic studies.

Humans↗

Blood-based DNA methylation and exposure risk scores predict PTSD with high accuracy in military and civilian cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Incorporating genomic data into risk prediction has become an increasingly popular approach for rapid identification of individuals most at risk for complex disorders such as PTSD. Our goal was to develop and validate Methylation Risk Scores (MRS) using machine learning to distinguish individuals who have PTSD from those who do not. METHODS: Elastic Net was used to develop three risk score models using a discovery dataset (n&#x2009;=&#x2009;1226; 314 cases, 912 controls) comprised of 5 diverse cohorts with available blood-derived DNA methylation (DNAm) measured on the Illumina Epic BeadChip. The first risk score, exposure and methylation risk score (eMRS) used cumulative and childhood trauma exposure and DNAm variables; the second, methylation-only risk score (MoRS) was based solely on DNAm data; the third, methylation-only risk scores with adjusted exposure variables (MoRSAE) utilized DNAm data adjusted for the two exposure variables. The potential of these risk scores to predict future PTSD based on pre-deployment data was also assessed. External validation of risk scores was conducted in four independent cohorts. RESULTS: The eMRS model showed the highest accuracy (92%), precision (91%), recall (87%), and f1-score (89%) in classifying PTSD using 3730 features. While still highly accurate, the MoRS (accuracy&#x2009;=&#x2009;89%) using 3728 features and MoRSAE (accuracy&#x2009;=&#x2009;84%) using 4150 features showed a decline in classification power. eMRS significantly predicted PTSD in one of the four independent cohorts, the BEAR cohort (beta&#x2009;=&#x2009;0.6839, p=0.006), but not in the remaining three cohorts. Pre-deployment risk scores from all models (eMRS, beta&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.92; MoRS, beta&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.99 and MoRSAE, beta&#x2009;=&#x2009;1.77) displayed a significant (p&#x2009;<&#x2009;0.001) predictive power for post-deployment PTSD. CONCLUSION: The inclusion of exposure variables adds to the predictive power of MRS. Classification-based MRS may be useful in predicting risk of future PTSD in populations with anticipated trauma exposure. As more data become available, including additional molecular, environmental, and psychosocial factors in these scores may enhance their accuracy in predicting PTSD and, relatedly, improve their performance in independent cohorts.

Humans↗

Machine learning on multiple epigenetic features reveals H3K27Ac as a driver of gene expression prediction across patients with glioblastoma.

Epigenetic mechanisms play a crucial role in driving transcript expression and shaping the phenotypic plasticity of glioblastoma stem cells (GSCs), contributing to tumor heterogeneity and therapeutic resistance. These mechanisms dynamically regulate the expression of key oncogenic and stemness-associated genes, enabling GSCs to adapt to environmental cues and evade targeted therapies. Importantly, epigenetic reprogramming allows GSCs to transition between cellular states, including therapy-resistant mesenchymal-like phenotypes, underscoring the need for epigenetic-targeting strategies to disrupt these adaptive processes. Understanding these epigenetic drivers of gene expression provides a foundation for novel therapeutic interventions aimed at eradicating GSCs and improving glioblastoma outcomes. Using machine learning (ML), we employ cross-patient prediction of transcript expression in GSCs by combining epigenetic features from various sources, including ATAC-seq, CTCF ChIP-seq, RNAPII ChIP-seq, H3K27Ac ChIP-seq, and RNA-seq. We investigate different ML and deep learning (DL) models for this task and ultimately build our final pipeline using XGBoost. The model trained on one patient generalizes to other 11 patients with high performance. Notably, H3K27Ac alone from a single patient is sufficient to predict gene expression in all 11 patients. Furthermore, the distribution of H3K27Ac peaks across the genomes of all patients is remarkably similar. These findings suggest that GSCs share a common distributional pattern of enhancer activity characterized by H3K27Ac, which can be utilized to predict gene expression in GSCs across patients. In summary, while GSCs are known for their transcriptomic and phenotypic heterogeneity, we propose that they share a common epigenetic pattern of enhancer activation that defines their underlying transcriptomic expression pattern. This pattern can predict gene expression across patient samples, providing valuable insights into the biology of GSCs.

Glioblastoma↗

Long-read based detection of large copy number variants with potential functional significance using the ContextSV structural variant caller.

Long-read sequencing enables improved detection of structural variants (SVs) in the human genome due to its substantially increased read lengths. However, currently widely used long-read SV callers primarily rely on alignment-based evidence, limiting their ability to detect large and complex SVs and potentially missing disease-relevant events. To address these limitations, we developed ContextSV, a framework that integrates alignment evidence with copy number predictions derived from sequencing coverage and single-nucleotide variant allele frequencies to improve SV detection, particularly for large copy number variants (CNVs). We additionally developed ContextScore, a machine learning-based classification model to assign SV confidence scores based on genomic context features and integrated it within ContextSV. Through benchmarking analyses on both simulated and real datasets, we demonstrate that ContextSV improves detection of large CNVs and inversions that may be missed by existing long-read SV callers. We further illustrate its utility by identifying and experimentally validating multiple large SVs in the KOLF2.1J reference stem cell line that were not detected by other methods. Collectively, our results demonstrate that ContextSV serves as a valuable complement to existing long-read SV detection approaches by improving sensitivity for large and clinically relevant SVs.

Humans↗

A composite score for predicting errors in protein structure models.

Reliable prediction of model accuracy is an important unsolved problem in protein structure modeling. To address this problem, we studied 24 individual assessment scores, including physics-based energy functions, statistical potentials, and machine learning-based scoring functions. Individual scores were also used to construct approximately 85,000 composite scoring functions using support vector machine (SVM) regression. The scores were tested for their abilities to identify the most native-like models from a set of 6000 comparative models of 20 representative protein structures. Each of the 20 targets was modeled using a template of <30% sequence identity, corresponding to challenging comparative modeling cases. The best SVM score outperformed all individual scores by decreasing the average RMSD difference between the model identified as the best of the set and the model with the lowest RMSD (DeltaRMSD) from 0.63 A to 0.45 A, while having a higher Pearson correlation coefficient to RMSD (r=0.87) than any other tested score. The most accurate score is based on a combination of the DOPE non-hydrogen atom statistical potential; surface, contact, and combined statistical potentials from MODPIPE; and two PSIPRED/DSSP scores. It was implemented in the SVMod program, which can now be applied to select the final model in various modeling problems, including fold assignment, target-template alignment, and loop modeling.

Models, Molecular↗

Predicting the efficacy of short oligonucleotides in antisense and RNAi experiments with boosted genetic programming.

MOTIVATION: Both small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) and antisense oligonucleotides can selectively block gene expression. Although the two methods rely on different cellular mechanisms, these methods share the common property that not all oligonucleotides (oligos) are equally effective. That is, if mRNA target sites are picked at random, many of the antisense or siRNA oligos will not be effective. Algorithms that can reliably predict the efficacy of candidate oligos can greatly reduce the cost of knockdown experiments, but previous attempts to predict the efficacy of antisense oligos have had limited success. Machine learning has not previously been used to predict siRNA efficacy. RESULTS: We develop a genetic programming based prediction system that shows promising results on both antisense and siRNA efficacy prediction. We train and evaluate our system on a previously published database of antisense efficacies and our own database of siRNA efficacies collected from the literature. The best models gave an overall correlation between predicted and observed efficacy of 0.46 on both antisense and siRNA data. As a comparison, the best correlations of support vector machine classifiers trained on the same data were 0.40 and 0.30, respectively.

Algorithms↗

Genome-wide association, polygenic risk scores, and machine learning for chronic post-surgical pain risk stratification: A UK biobank study.

Chronic post-surgical pain is a prevalent and debilitating complication following surgery, representing a clinical challenge. Despite the established heritability of pain phenotypes, large-scale genetic studies remain limited. This study aimed to identify genetic variants associated with chronic post-surgical pain, develop polygenic risk scores, and integrate these with clinical features for risk prediction. UK Biobank data from 47,836 participants (2490 cases and 45,346 controls) were split into training (80%; n = 38,268) and validation (20%; n = 9568) sets prior to analysis. A genome-wide association study was conducted on the training set only, across 19 million variants, and polygenic risk scores were constructed and integrated with clinical features in a logistic regression framework. Two close, rare, imputed signals crossed the genome-wide significance threshold but lacked local linkage-disequilibrium support, while 220 variants crossed the suggestive threshold. In the held-out validation set, cases had higher mean polygenic risk scores than controls (0.138 vs. -0.021; Cohen's d = 0.16, p < 0.001). A logistic regression model integrating clinical features and polygenic risk scores achieved an area under the curve of 0.639 (95% CI: 0.583-0.693), higher than models using either feature set alone. The polygenic risk score for chronic post-surgical pain was among the most important predictors. Risk stratification revealed the top quartile had 3.84-fold higher odds of chronic post-surgical pain than the bottom quartile (95% CI: 2.00-7.37). These findings suggest a possible modest genetic contribution to chronic post-surgical pain. Polygenic risk scores may complement clinical factors in surgical risk stratification. PERSPECTIVE: Chronic post-surgical pain may have a modest genetic contribution. This UK Biobank study identified over 220 variants at suggestive significance and constructed a polygenic risk score that was significantly elevated in cases. A combined clinical-genomic model achieved a 3.84-fold difference in odds across predicted-risk quartiles.

Chronic post-surgical pain↗