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PubMed1994

The future population and the future labour force.

"The combination of two recent publications by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides a useful insight into feasible future trends in the population, the labour force and dependency ratios. In addition, earlier ABS census data and its regular publications from the Labour Force Surveys clarify the historical trends in the relative number of dependants and nondependants. These various sources of data are brought together in this paper.... Official population projections...highlight the fact that the combination of annual zero net migration and 10 per cent below replacement fertility would not produce an immediate decline in Australia's population.... The conventional labour-force dependency ratio suggests that the dependency situation in Australia in 2041 will be no worse than it was in the early 1980s."

Australia↗
PubMed1987

Network organization of the connectivity between parietal area 7, posterior cingulate cortex and medial pulvinar nucleus: a double fluorescent tracer study in monkey.

The topographic distribution of medial pulvinar neuronal populations projecting to area 7a and to posterior cingulate gyrus (area 23) was investigated with retrograde axonal transport of fluorescent dyes. In an initial stage, separate injections of fast blue and diamidino-yellow were placed in area 7a. Two segregated backfilled cell populations were observed in the cingulate gyrus revealing a topographic distribution of cortico-cortical connections. In a second stage, the two dyes were injected in area 7a and in the posterior cingulate gyrus. After injections in two cortical sub-areas previously shown to be in topographic correspondence, the two projecting populations observed in the medial pulvinar overlapped extensively. In the case of injections in two regions not topographically correspondent, the two medial pulvinar populations were found to be segregated. These findings reveal that within both posterior parietal cortex and posterior cingulate gyrus, sub-areas which are in topographic correspondence receive projections from a common region of the medial pulvinar.

Amidines↗
PubMed1994

Projected numbers of cancers diagnosed in the US elderly population, 1990 through 2030.

As based on Bureau of the Census population projections and age-specific cancer incidence rates for 1985 to 1989 from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results program, the number of incident cancers diagnosed annually in the United States among persons aged 65 and over is projected to reach 1.5 million by the year 2030, or 2.4 times the number estimated for 1990. These projections, which may be conservative because birth cohort patterns (based on Connecticut rates) suggest possible future increases in incidence rates for all cancer sites combined, have implications for planning expanded primary prevention efforts, such as smoking cessation (especially for women) and dietary modification programs, and for projecting health care needs and costs.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1993

Tyrosine-hydroxylase-containing vagal afferent neurons in the rat nodose ganglion are independent from neuropeptide-Y-containing populations and project to esophagus and stomach.

Immunoreactivity to the rate limiting enzyme of catecholamine synthesis, tyrosine hydroxylase, has been described in the inferior sensory (= nodose) ganglion of the vagal nerve in the rat. The aim of the present study was to characterize further this neuronal population. The neurons do not represent displaced autonomic efferent neurons, since they do not receive synaptic input, as indicated by the absence of synaptophysin-immunoreactive terminals. In addition to the immunoreactivity to tyrosine hydroxylase, a tyrosine hydroxylase cRNA probe hybridizes with nodose ganglion neurons as demonstrated by in situ hybridization and Northern blotting. Many but not all of the tyrosine hydroxylase-immunoreactive neurons are also immunoreactive to the dopamine synthesizing enzyme, aromatic-L-amino-acid-decarboxylase, but lack the noradrenaline-synthesizing enzyme, dopamine-beta-hydroxylase, thus favoring synthesis of dopamine. Neuropeptide Y, which is often colocalized with catecholamines, is also present in a subset of nodose ganglion neurons, as indicated by immunohistochemistry, in situ hybridization and Northern blotting. However, double-labeling immunofluorescence has revealed that these two antigens are localized in different cell populations. Retrograde neuronal tracing utilizing fluorescent dyes (Fast blue, Fluoro-gold) combined with tyrosine hydroxylase immunohistochemistry has demonstrated that the esophagus and stomach are peripheral targets of tyrosine-hydroxylase-containing vagal viscero-afferent neurons.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Avian transgenerational reproductive toxicity test with in ovo exposure.

Ecological risk assessment of environmental pollutants requires effective laboratory assays and extrapolation of the resultant data to wild species. Because avian reproductive disorder and accumulation of persistent compounds in wild birds and their eggs have long been observed in polluted regions, we have developed an assay for investigating whether pollutants accumulated in eggs impair the reproduction of the exposed birds and the survival of the next generation using the Japanese quail. A typical estrogenic compound, diethylstilbestrol (DES), dissolved in olive oil was injected into the air-chamber of fertilized eggs on day 10 of incubation. After sexual maturation of hatched chicks, we mated pairs of male and female quails following an observation period of egg production and collected their eggs. The collected eggs were incubated and checked for the fertility and hatchability, and then the hatchlings were raised and observed in growth for 3 weeks. A dosage of 5 ng/g per egg of DES caused eggshell thinning in eggs laid by exposed females and reduction in eggshell strength. DES also induced shortening of the left oviduct and unexpected development of the right oviduct, while testis weight was reduced symmetrically. The ability of quail pairs to produce offspring was significantly diminished by exposure of females to DES independently of exposure of males, which mainly arose from production of abnormal and inviable eggs. Fertility of normal-shelled eggs and hatchability of fertilized eggs were unchanged regardless of treatments. External morphological abnormalities, which were mostly unopened toes of the foot, were frequently observed in hatchlings from exposed males independently of exposure of females. Additionally, we attempted to extrapolate the experimental results to the northern bobwhite and to predict population trends for quails in a polluted habitat using a population projection model composed of a combination of a Leslie matrix and the logistic equation. In the event of accumulation of an estrogenic compound equivalent to a dosage of 5 ng/g DES in quail eggs, the average population size was predicted to decrease by 20.2% after 1 year, to approximately half after 4 years, and to a fifth after 14 years. When observed weakening of individuals and the risk of egg breakage are taken into consideration, the decline in population was further accelerated. The proposed assay appears to be suitable not only for assessing adverse effects of chemicals on avian reproduction but for population projection of affected wild birds.

Abnormalities, Drug-Induced↗
PubMed1997

[Factors associated with cognitive deterioration in an urban population. ANCO project].

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the prevalence of cognitive deterioration (CD) in the over-60s of the city of Córdoba not in institutions and to evaluate its relationship with social, demographic and health variables. DESIGN: A crossover study of prevalence. SETTING: The city of Córdoba. PARTICIPANTS: Population over 60 years old living at home (N = 49,674), from which a sample of 1,103 people was extracted. INTERVENTIONS: The Spanish-language version of the multidimensional OARS-MFAQ questionnaire was filled in. This included the Pfeiffer cognitive evaluation test. RESULTS: Reply rate was 86.8%. 3.7% had possible moderate-severe CD. People with CD also used more services (basically to help with DA) and had a perception of needing more services which they were not receiving at present. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of possible cognitive deterioration in the population under analysis is similar to that found in other studies in our country. They confirm that age and lack of schooling are the factors most closely linked to this deterioration.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1996

The VITA Project: population-based distributions of protein C, antithrombin III, heparin-cofactor II and plasminogen--relationship with physiological variables and establishment of reference ranges.

A proper laboratory diagnosis of inherited thrombophilia due to defects of the coagulation system may be obtained only by a stringent definition of the diagnostic reference ranges taking into account the influence exerted by major physiological variables. To this purpose, we analyzed the data for Protein C, Antithrombin III, Heparin-Cofactor II and plasminogen coming from the first 4,000 subjects enrolled in the VITA Project. This is the first study that allows the establishment of reference ranges in a non-selected, active population using stringent standardization of clinical and laboratory measurements and multivariable regression techniques for data analysis. Serum triglycerides and total cholesterol, together with plasma fibrinogen were found to influence the functional plasma level of the four considered proteins. Menopause increased AT-III concentration, while pill use increased Heparin-Cofactor II and plasminogen. PT and PTT ratio, gender, age, smoking, body-mass index, HDL cholesterol and blood group had minor effects. The effect of these variables should be taken into account for both clinical and epidemiologic purposes, using appropriate reference ranges or covariance analysis for adjustment.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2000

Hip fracture rates in South Australia: into the next century.

BACKGROUND: Fractures of the femoral neck already represent a major public health problem in Australia. This situation is set to worsen as the population ages. The present study estimates the number of patients over 50 years of age with femoral neck fractures that is expected to impact on the South Australian healthcare service into the next century. METHODS: Population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 1996 census were combined with age- and gender-specific incidence rates for fractures of the femoral neck for persons over the age of 50 in South Australia. Projections for the expected number of hip fractures in this State were then calculated. RESULTS: Assuming there are no changes in the age- and gender-specific incidence of fracture rates, the number of fractures in South Australia is estimated to increase by approximately 66% by the year 2021 and 190% by 2051. CONCLUSION: Based on the population projections and the assumption that conditions contributing to hip fractures remain constant, the number of fractured neck of femurs will increase in far greater proportion than the overall population in the next century. The results of the present study indicate the serious implications for the South Australian healthcare system if there is no reduction in incidence rates.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1993

[What has the reform of primary care meant in the community approach to arterial hypertension?].

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate an arterial Hypertension programme (AHP), with analysis of its feasibility and the problems inherent in the methodology used. DESIGN: A retrospective evaluation of the results of an AHP programme. A population projection of the results by means of an extrapolated calculation. SETTING: An urban Health Centre. PATIENTS: A random sample of 282 patients selected from the total of 564 individuals diagnosed with AHT over the 6 years of the programme's operation. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The 564 patients in the records made up 16.5% of the Health Area's adult population. The iceberg phenomenon (the percentage of undiagnosed hypertension sufferers) has evolved from 59% in 1988 to the present 17%. 7.4% of the sample received no treatment. Average AHT figures for the patients in treatment were 143 +/- 15 mm Hg systolic pressure and 85 +/- 9 mm Hg diastolic. 75% had adequate control of their tension figures (< 160/95). The population projection of these findings indicated that 57% of Hypertension sufferers calculated to be living in the Health area were diagnosed and monitored. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that the AHT situation among the population has substantially improved. The methodology used is easy to manage and can be of service in the evaluation of the impact of AHT programmes on the population.

Adult↗
PubMed1986

Using Medicare data for short-run projections of the elderly population.

As the elderly population of the United States grows in absolute number and as a proportion of total population, accurate projections of that population become increasingly important for sound policy decisions. Cohort component techniques are typically used for state and local projections of the elderly population, but are often outdated or even nonexistent for many local areas. This paper suggests an alternative approach, based on Medicare data and simple projection techniques. Projections for several base periods and projection horizons are made for all states and for counties in Florida and are compared with actual Medicare enrollment. On the basis of these comparisons it appears that Medicare data and simple projection techniques can produce very useful short-run projections of the elderly population for states and local areas.

Aged↗
PubMed1987

Measuring the accuracy of population forecasts.

The accuracy of population projections is discussed, with specific reference to population forecasts for development planning purposes. The author notes that errors in making population forecasts depend on the parameter values used in the calculations, and that such errors can be avoided if the demographic models used are seen not as stochastic but as models with random parameters. "For such models the present article derives estimations of the covariance matrices of forecasts of the social and age composition of the population."

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1986

Mapping of an olfactory receptor population that projects to a specific region in the rat olfactory bulb.

An anatomically distinct group of glomeruli, termed the modified glomerular complex (MGC), is present in the posterior dorsomedial portion of the main olfactory bulb. This region has been strongly implicated as part of the pathway that processes odor cues for suckling in neonatal rat pups. We studied the distribution pattern of olfactory receptor neurons that project to the MGC region after ionophoretic injections of WGA-HRP into the olfactory bulbs of 12-day-old rat pups. HRP label was confined to an identifiable localized region in the MGC of the main olfactory bulb. Label extended over 2-7% of the glomerular sheet of the main olfactory bulb, including the MGC. Olfactory receptor neurons within the olfactory epithelium of the nasal cavity were labeled with HRP ipsilateral to the injected side. Maps constructed of the olfactory epithelium revealed that the labeled neurons occurred within topographically defined regions. Anteriorly, labeled olfactory neurons were confined to a narrow strip medial to the dorsal recess, and, more posteriorly, this strip widened medially along the septal wall and laterally onto a limited area on the nasal turbinates. Only a portion of the receptor population within a region was labeled. The boundaries between labeled and unlabeled regions were sharp. These findings support the concept that the olfactory epithelium is an anatomical mosaic in which receptors with different glomerular projections sites are intermingled. In conjunction with previous evidence on the functional specificity of the MGC, and staining of receptor neuron subgroups with monoclonal antibodies, these findings further suggest that olfactory receptor neurons form a functional mosaic within the olfactory epithelium.

Animals↗
PubMed1994

Terminal types on ipsilaterally and contralaterally projecting lateral superior olive cells.

The lateral superior olive (LSO) in ferret contains two distinct populations of principal cells, one population projecting to the ipsilateral and the other projecting to the contralateral inferior colliculus. In addition, these populations have been shown to be distinct from each other on the basis of tonotopic and isofrequency distribution within LSO, of dendritic morphology, and of neurotransmitter within the somata. The present study compared the two populations on the basis of the type of synaptic input. Laterality of projection was established using horseradish peroxidase histochemistry. Synaptic terminals contacting LSO somata identified as projecting ipsilaterally or contralaterally were quantified as round (R) or nonround (NR), representing presumptive excitatory and inhibitory input, respectively. Results indicate that the vast majority of somatic terminals contacting both projection populations are NR and, furthermore, that R terminals are significantly more likely to contact ipsilaterally than contralaterally projecting LSO cells. There is no significant difference in number of NR terminals or total number of terminals between ipsilaterally and contralaterally projecting LSO cells. These findings provide additional support to the notion that the LSO is comprised of two distinct cell populations. Moreover, they indicate a difference in the balance of somatic inhibition and excitation which may have an impact on the nature of the response properties of the two populations.

Animals↗
PubMed1988

[[On the parameter estimation problems in the multiregional demographic growth model]].

"In this paper, we critically prove the formulas of Ledent-Rogers-Willekens.... Our procedure does not depend on multi-regional life table technique but on direct discretization of the continuous-time model. Here our main purpose is not to provide new results but to clear the conditions under which these methods for estimating the parameters can be applied. Finally, we give another method of calculation of parameters, which makes it possible to do a consistent disaggregated projection when we have already had an aggregated population projection." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Demography↗
PubMed1987

[Body weight, food habits and physical activity in the Swiss population: the project MONICA].

Within the framework of the first risk factor survey among the two reporting units of MONICA-Switzerland (cantons of Vaud and Fribourg; canton of Tessin), body mass index (BMI) was also analysed. One in four adults (25-74 years) presents with overweight, this proportion being even 1 in 3 among males of the canton of Tessin. However, this health risk can probably be changed, as every third female and every fifth male indicated to have modified their nutritional habits in a more healthy sense within the last 12 months preceeding the survey. On the other side, less than half of the population engages in a degree of physical activity conducive to cardiovascular prevention and reduction of overweight. In order to increase the level of physical activity in the population, it is primarily leisure time sports activities that have to be developed as only very few adults experience a heavy physical work load within their profession.

Adult↗
PubMed1998

Growth and development of term children born with low birth weight: effects of genetic and environmental factors.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the role of intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) on childhood growth and development, controlling for environmental and genetic factors. METHODS: Women and infants enrolled in the National Collaborative Perinatal Project were analyzed. Weight, length, and IQ were assessed at birth and at 7 years in the entire National Collaborative Perinatal Project population in term infants born with and without IUGR ("population cohort"). To control for genetic and environmental factors, growth and development were also compared in 220 similar-sex term sibling pairs in which one sibling was born with IUGR and one was born without IUGR ("sibling cohort"). RESULTS: At 7 years of age heights and weights of infants born with IUGR remained approximately 0.5 SD less than infants born without IUGR (weight-for-age: p < 0.001, height-for-age: p < 0.001). In the entire National Collaborative Perinatal Project population, IQ (p < 0.001) and Bender-Gestalt (p < 0.001) scores were significantly lower in infants born with IUGR compared with those in infants born without IUGR. There were no significant differences in IQ or Bender-Gestalt scores between siblings born with and without IUGR. However, siblings with IUGR and large deficits in head circumference demonstrated both decreased IQ (p < 0.05) and Bender-Gestalt (p < 0.05) scores. CONCLUSION: Long-term growth deficits associated with IUGR appear largely independent of prenatal or postnatal environmental factors. IUGR had little impact on intelligence and motor development except when associated with large deficits in head circumference.

Body Height↗