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PubMed1993

Should the elderly receive chemotherapy for node-negative breast cancer? A cost-effectiveness analysis examining total and active life-expectancy outcomes.

PURPOSE: This study determines the survival benefit and cost-effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy in elderly women with breast cancer. In addition, the analysis measures the impact of substituting active life expectancy for survival in the clinical decision. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two cohorts of women with estrogen receptor (ER)-negative, stage I breast cancer from age 60 to 80 years were monitored using a Markov process. One group received standard chemotherapy following primary therapy, and the other had no postoperative treatment. Data were derived from recently published clinical trials and a major meta-analysis. Outcome included the average survival, active life-expectancy, and incremental cost/quality-adjusted life-year (cost/QALY). RESULTS: Adjuvant chemotherapy prolongs survival in older women, but to a lesser extent compared with younger women. The average gain in quality-adjusted months was 1.8 months in a 75-year-old cohort at a cost/QALY of $4,400. These small benefits were not substantially altered when univariate changes were made in toxicity, recurrence risk, or effectiveness of chemotherapy. When active life expectancy replaced survival as an end point, the benefit for 75-year-old women decreased to 2 weeks at a cost of more than $96,000/QALY. CONCLUSION: There is a small survival benefit for adjuvant chemotherapy in elderly patients. The cost of this benefit is high, but within the range of commonly reimbursed procedures until a point between 75 and 80 years old. The use of active life expectancy as the primary outcome reduces the benefit and adds to the cost. If physicians and policymakers agree that active life expectancy is a relevant outcome, withholding chemotherapy for patients > or = 70 years old is a reasonable approach.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2005

How to prepare a life expectancy report for an attorney in a tort case.

The purpose of this methodology article is to describe a suitable format for a legally acceptable report on the life expectancy of the principal in a tort case that is being advocated or defended by an attorney. Life insurance medical directors and underwriters are clearly skilled and experienced in mortality risk classification for life insurance. However, the judicial system is accustomed to measuring excess mortality only in terms of reduced life expectancy. The analyst preparing the report must convert the excess mortality into a figure for reduced life expectancy and compare this with the life expectancy of persons matched by age, sex and race in the latest Decennial US Life Tables. This process is different from the life insurance underwriting process. A life table projected to age 109 must be constructed as an essential part of the report, and the entire process must be presented clearly and convincingly. There are good reasons why the excess death rate (EDR) should be used as the index of excess mortality in constructing the life table, in preference to the mortality ratio (MR), which is used most of the time in life insurance risk classification. All of these considerations are discussed in this article, which is based on a sample of 40 cases handled by the author, a retired life insurance medical director.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2000

Active life expectancy from annual follow-up data with missing responses.

Active life expectancy (ALE) at a given age is defined as the expected remaining years free of disability. In this study, three categories of health status are defined according to the ability to perform activities of daily living independently. Several studies have used increment-decrement life tables to estimate ALE, without error analysis, from only a baseline and one follow-up interview. The present work conducts an individual-level covariate analysis using a three-state Markov chain model for multiple follow-up data. Using a logistic link, the model estimates single-year transition probabilities among states of health, accounting for missing interviews. This approach has the advantages of smoothing subsequent estimates and increased power by using all follow-ups. We compute ALE and total life expectancy from these estimated single-year transition probabilities. Variance estimates are computed using the delta method. Data from the Iowa Established Population for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly are used to test the effects of smoking on ALE on all 5-year age groups past 65 years, controlling for sex and education.

Aged↗
PubMed1989

Relating changes in life expectancy to changes in mortality.

I address the problem of what can be said of changes in mortality rates, if one knows how life expectancies change. I note a general formula relating life expectancies in different ages to mortality and prove that if mortality changes over time following a proportional-hazard model, then there is a one-to-one correspondence between life expectancy at birth and mortality rates. Extensions and an application of these results to the analysis of mortality change are presented.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1986

Mortality ratios, life expectancy, and causes of death in patients with Turner's syndrome.

In a prospective study of 156 female patients with Turner's syndrome who had survived infancy and been followed up for an average of 17 years there were 15 deaths. The expected mortality was 3.6. Sixteen of the patients had a congenital heart anomaly and five of the deaths occurred in this group. The 10 deaths in the remaining 140 were three times as many as expected. The reduction in life expectation was 12.5 years at age 1 year, 11 years at age 20, and 10 years at age 40. Deaths were due to a broad spectrum of diseases. In the sample as a whole there were eight deaths from diseases of the circulatory system. This number is significantly greater than expected, but four were due to congenital heart disease. When patients with congenital heart disease were omitted from the sample the mortality from circulatory disorders was not significantly increased. Within the category of circulatory disorders there were three deaths from dissection of the aorta, a number which is greatly in excess of the expected. Two of these patients had no previous evidence of heart disease.

Female↗
PubMed2000

Standardized mortality ratio and life expectancy: a comparative study of Chinese mortality.

BACKGROUND: Various models have been proposed for rapid conversion of the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) to life expectancy using data from developed countries. METHODS: We compared two methods for converting the SMR to life expectancy using mortality data from the largest developing country, China. RESULTS: The first model, using the Gompertz function, does not provide a good fit to the life expectancy and SMR of China. The regression lines derived from the second, a log-linear model using parameters estimated from the US white population are not a good fit to Chinese males and older females. However, if the parameters in the log-linear model are estimated using Chinese mortality data, the resultant regression lines fit the data reasonably well. CONCLUSION: The relationship between life expectancy and SMR based on mortality data from developed countries may not be valid for developing countries. Based on our empirical study, separate estimates of the coefficients of the model are required for developing countries.

Adult↗
PubMed2001

[Competitive morbidity ant its impact on life expectancy: evaluation and inclusion in the therapeutic decision regarding localized prostatic cancer].

OBJECTIVES: The treatment decision taken by a multidisciplinary meeting for patients with localized prostate cancer must take into account the clinical stage of the cancer and its histological characteristics, but also the patient's age, general state and any concomitant diseases, as treatment is only beneficial when it induces a reduction of morbidity and specific mortality. The specific survival with or without recurrence after treatment for localized prostate cancer is long, at least more than 10 years. Curative treatment is generally not proposed to men with localized prostate cancer when his probability of survival related to a competitive morbidity (intercurrent medical disease) is estimated to be less than 10 years. The objective of this study was to measure the increase or reduction of the survival probability of a patient with localized prostate cancer according to his competitive morbidity, based on the mean life expectancy of the general population. METHODS: Review of the literature. RESULTS: Studies describing the natural history of prostate cancer show that the impact of treatment on morbidity of the cancer (local and/or metastatic) requires a life expectancy of about 8 to 10 years. The impact of a treatment on specific survival requires a life expectancy of about 13 to 15 years. The exact prevalence of diseases coexisting with prostate cancer is unknown. In the USA, The Index of Coexisting Disease (ICD), which takes into account 14 diseases, appears to be the most reliable tool to measure the competitive morbidity in patients with localized prostate cancer. Each disease is classified into 4 levels of severity (score 0 to 3). A table indicates estimated life expectancies by age-group and by ICD score. All men with a high score (2 to 3) die within 10 years after diagnosis, men with a score of 0 have a better estimated life expectancy according to age than that of the general population. CONCLUSION: The upper age limit, theoretically set at 70 years, in order to propose curative treatment for localized prostate cancer needs to be reviewed (the mean life expectancy for a 70-year-old man is 12.9 years in France). According to the ICD, the life expectancy at 70 years is 14.8 years in the case of a score of 0 and 8.4 years in the case of a score of 2. In the case of a score of 2, the impact of curative treatment on localized prostate cancer would be real on morbidity, but not on specific mortality.

Humans↗
PubMed2003

[New trends in mortality and life expectancy: epidemiologic transition in Hungary?].

In 2001 there were 18,000 fewer deaths than in 1993. In eight years, the annual number of deaths decreased by 12 per cent, the death rate by 10 per cent, and life expectancy at birth increased by 3.3 years. The chronic epidemiologic crisis came to an end, and the long process of closing the gap in life expectancy at birth between Hungary and the European Union started in the mid 1990s. There is still a long way to go, however, before the country reaches EU levels in terms of life expectancy at birth. The most important phenomenon of the favourable turn in mortality and life expectancies has been the decline in the death rate due to cardiovascular diseases. Health promotion and preventive and curative medicine have contributed to the improving epidemiological situation, but the decisive factor in the lower death rates and consequently longer life expectancies at different ages, including old age, has been the change in the socio-economic and political system. Hungary appears to be at the beginning of the fourth stage of epidemiologic transition, i.e. having left the stage of chronic noninfectious diseases, it has entered the stage of delayed chronic noninfectious diseases.

Adult↗
PubMed1996

Contributions of various major causes of death to life expectancy in Singapore, 1980-1990.

This paper considers the contributions by age of the various major groups of deaths to the increase in life expectancy at birth between 1980 and 1990 for both sexes in Singapore. Sixteen cause groups were used in the study. The data were analysed using LIFETIME, a personal computer package with a wide variety of methods for mortality investigations. Respiratory diseases made the largest contribution to the increase in life expectancy for both sexes. In contrast, ischaemic heart disease made a negative contribution of 1% in the gain in female life expectancy but contributed 12% improvement for males. Life tables for Singaporean males and females in the year 2000 were projected by extrapolating the mortality trends observed in earlier periods. The calculations show that the life expectancy at birth in the year 2000 to be 74.72 years for males and 79.48 years for females.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1988

[Factor decomposition of the differences in life expectancy: a Hungarian method].

"The author shows the Hungarian method of decomposition according to factors causing differences in life expectancies. He uses abridged mortality tables by causes of death of Hungary's male and female population in 1972-1973 and 1982....[The author explains that] the significant increase in the difference between males' and females' average life expectancies at birth can be explained primarily with the ever increasing differences in life expectancies of the victims of various causes of death shifted in favour of females." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

Cause of Death↗
PubMed2003

Decomposing change in life expectancy: a bouquet of formulas in honor of Nathan Keyfitz's 90th birthday.

We extend Nathan Keyfitz's research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change. The formula separates change in life expectancy over time into two terms. The first term captures the general effect of reduction in death rates at all ages, and the second term captures the effect of heterogeneity in the pace of improvement in mortality at different ages. We extend the formula to decompose change in life expectancy into age-specific and cause-specific components, and apply the methods to analyze changes in life expectancy in Sweden and Japan.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1999

Continuing screening mammography in women aged 70 to 79 years: impact on life expectancy and cost-effectiveness.

CONTEXT: Mammography is recommended and is cost-effective for women aged 50 to 69 years, but the value of continuing screening mammography after age 69 years is not known. In particular, older women with low bone mineral density (BMD) have a lower risk of breast cancer and may benefit less from continued screening. OBJECTIVE: To compare life expectancy and cost-effectiveness of screening mammography in elderly women based on 3 screening strategies. DESIGN: Decision analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model. PATIENTS: General population of women aged 65 years or older. INTERVENTIONS: The analysis compared 3 strategies: (1) Undergoing biennial mammography from age 65 to 69 years; (2) undergoing biennial mammography from age 65 to 69 years, measurement of distal radial BMD at age 65 years, discontinuing screening at age 69 years in women in the lowest BMD quartile for age, and continuing biennial mammography to age 79 years in those in the top 3 quartiles of distal radius BMD; and (3) undergoing biennial mammography from age 65 to 79 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths due to breast cancer averted, life expectancy, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: Compared with discontinuing mammography screening at age 69 years, measuring BMD at age 65 years in 10000 women and continuing mammography to age 79 years only in women with BMD in the top 3 quartiles would prevent 9.4 deaths and add, on average, 2.1 days to life expectancy at an incremental cost of $66773 per year of life saved. Continuing mammography to age 79 years in all 10000 elderly women would prevent 1.4 additional breast cancer deaths and add only 7.2 hours to life expectancy at an incremental cost of $117689 per year of life saved compared with only continuing mammography to age 79 years in women with BMD in the top 3 quartiles. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that continuing mammography screening after age 69 years results in a small gain in life expectancy and is moderately cost-effective in those with high BMD and more costly in those with low BMD. Women's preferences for a small gain in life expectancy and the potential harms of screening mammography should play an important role when elderly women are deciding about screening.

Aged↗
PubMed2005

Estimation of future mortality rates and life expectancy in chronic medical conditions.

Estimates of old-age mortality are necessary for the construction of life tables and computation of life expectancy, and are essential in the growing area of life insurance for the elderly. Two common assumptions are that either the excess death rate (EDR) or the relative risk (RR) stays constant with increasing age. It is known, however, that for most medical conditions the former underestimates the risk and the latter overestimates it. A third popular method is that of rating up: a subject is said to be "rated up k years" if his future mortality rates are assumed to be those of a person in the general population who is k years older. It is shown here that this method generally leads to gross overestimates of old-age mortality. We consider two less-commonly used models, log-linear declining relative risk (LDR) and constant proportional life expectancy (PLE), and compare them to the methods of constant EDR, constant RR and rating up. Although slightly more complicated to employ than the other methods, both LDR and PLE generally give better estimates of mortality and life expectancy. When mortality rates for chronic conditions are known within a certain age range, and estimates outside of the range are required, the LDR and PLE methods may be preferable to the more familiar methods of constant EDR, constant RR, or rating up.

Adult↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Can life expectancies be used to determine if health promotion works?

PURPOSE: The goal of this study was to develop a method to measure the impact and cost-effectiveness of health promotion. DESIGN: Age- and sex-specific changes in life expectancy in Canada between 1970 to 1972 and 1985 to 1987, after the introduction of national health insurance (1970) and health promotion (1975), are used to assess the impact due to biological hardiness, improvements in the health care field, and the effects of health promotion. SUBJECTS: The subjects were the total male and female population of Canada between the years 1970 to 1972 and 1985 to 1987. MEASURES: Life expectancy by years of age by sex was the measurement used. RESULTS: A method is presented that allows the calculation of the differential effects of health promotion, health care, and biological hardiness on changes in life expectancy based on sequential subtraction of life expectancies for one-year age cohorts over a 15-year period. Results were obtained for each year of age for men and women, showing gender and age differences in the relative impact of the three factors. In this illustrative example using Canadian data, health promotion was found to have less impact on longevity than health care or biological hardiness. However, of the three, health promotion was the most cost-effective. CONCLUSION: This method can be used to quantify changes in life span due to health promotion, health care, and biological hardiness for men and women at each year of age and to relate this to health expenditures for the whole population. The method is limited in that it cannot determine the relative impact of other factors that can affect life expectancy such as environmental changes or social trends.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2006

Healthy life expectancy in Brazil: applying the Sullivan method.

The objective of this study is to present the method proposed by Sullivan and to estimate the healthy life expectancy using different measures of state of health, based on information from the World Health Survey carried out in Brazil in 2003. By combining information on mortality and morbidity into a unique indicator, simple to calculate and easy to interpret, the Sullivan method is currently the one most commonly used for estimating healthy life expectancy. The results show higher number of healthy years lost if there is a long-term disease or disability that limits daily activities, regardless of the difficulty in performing such activities or the severity of the functional limitations. The two measures of healthy life expectancy adjusted by the severity of functional limitation show results very similar to estimates based on the perception of state of health, especially in advanced age. It was also observed, for all measures used, that the proportion of healthy years lost increases significantly with age and that, although females have higher life expectancy than males, they live proportionally less years in good health.

Adult↗
PubMed1999

Effect of ACE inhibitor trandolapril on life expectancy of patients with reduced left-ventricular function after acute myocardial infarction. TRACE Study Group. Trandolapril Cardiac Evaluation.

BACKGROUND: The survival benefit from the use of inhibitors of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) in patients with acute myocardial infarction is usually presented in terms of risk ratios and lives saved per 1000 people treated. A more relevant way to present the extent of benefit would be in terms of an increase in life expectancy, but this approach has not previously been possible because of limited data on long-term outcome. We aimed to calculate the effect of trandolapril on life expectancy with follow-up data from the Trandolapril Cardiac Evaluation (TRACE) Study. METHODS: The TRACE study previously showed a significant survival benefit with trandolapril in patients with reduced left-ventricular function after an acute myocardial infarction who were treated for at least 2 years. We ascertained the survival status of all patients in the TRACE study in June, 1998, at which time they had been followed up for a minimum of 6 years. We estimated life expectancy as median lifetime, which was the time for 50% of the patients to have died. Change in life expectancy is expressed as change in median lifetime. Analysis was by intention to treat. FINDINGS: The life expectancy of patients was 4.6 years for those given placebo versus 6.2 years for those on trandolapril. Thus, for patients on trandolapril, median lifetime was increased by 15.3 months or 27% (95% CI 7 to 51). Analysis of follow-up after the end of the study indicated no decrease of this benefit during the course of double-blind treatment; continued use of trandolapril was recommended at study closure. INTERPRETATION: In patients with severely reduced left-ventricular function, long-term treatment with an ACE inhibitor during the critical period after myocardial infarction is associated with a substantial increase in life expectancy.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

Active life expectancy among elderly Japanese.

BACKGROUND: This study estimated the active life expectancy (ALE) among the elderly in a Japanese urban society to determine whether or not the Japanese live long lives at the expense of life quality. METHODS: Survival and ability to perform activities of daily living (ADLs) were followed up on a probability sample (n = 3,459) of the aged people living in Sendai City, Japan, between 1988 and 1991. ALE was calculated by an increment-decrement life table method. RESULTS: At age 65, ALE was 14.7 years for men and 17.7 years for women. The duration of active life occupied 91% of the total life expectancy for men and 87% for women. These values were further compared with those reported for the elderly in the United States. ALE among the Japanese subjects was longer than that among the American elderly. The percentage of remaining life that was active was comparable with that in the United States. However, the interpretation of the results requires caution because of the difficulty in comparing self-reported disabilities across cultures. CONCLUSION: The authors conclude that it is premature at this time to judge which country is better in terms of functional status among the elderly. An international comparison of ALE would create an opportunity to evaluate and promote health and function of the elderly population worldwide. For this purpose, an international standardization of ALE measurement is urgently needed.

Activities of Daily Living↗
PubMed2006

Impact of HAART and injection drug use on life expectancy of two HIV-positive cohorts in British Columbia.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of HAART has led to consistent improvements in survival among HIV-infected individuals. However, there is evidence that not all populations have benefited equally from HAART and that mortality rates are higher in HIV-infected injection drug users than in non-users. OBJECTIVE: To model life expectancies for HIV-positive individuals subdivided according to history of injection drug use and treatment with HAART. DESIGN: Population-based study of HIV-positive persons in British Columbia's HIV/AIDS treatment program. METHODS: The primary outcome measures in this study were life expectancy at exact age 20 and potential years of life lost. RESULTS: The highest life expectancy (38.9 years) and lowest potential years of life lost were measured for individuals taking HAART and without a history of injection drug use. The lowest life expectancy (19.1 years) and highest potential years of life lost were measured in HIV-positive injection drug users who were not taking HAART. CONCLUSIONS: There are substantial disparities in life expectancy for persons living with HIV in British Columbia. Members of the injection drug community, particularly those who are not taking HAART, experience elevated mortality in comparison with those without a history of drug use.

Adult↗