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Mantle shear-wave tomography and the fate of subducted slabs.

A new seismic model of the three-dimensional variation in shear velocity throughout the Earth's mantle is presented. The model is derived entirely from shear bodywave travel times. Multibounce shear waves, core-reflected waves and SKS and SKKS waves that travel through the core are used in the analysis. A unique aspect of the dataset used in this study is the use of bodywaves that turn at shallow depths in the mantle, some of which are triplicated. The new model is compared with other global shear models. Although competing models show significant variations, several large-scale structures are common to most of the models. The high-velocity anomalies are mostly associated with subduction zones. In some regions the anomalies only extend into the shallow lower mantle, whereas in other regions tabular high-velocity structures seem to extend to the deepest mantle. The base of the mantle shows long-wavelength high-velocity zones also associated with subduction zones. The heterogeneity seen in global tomography models is difficult to interpret in terms of mantle flow due to variations in structure from one subduction zone to another. The simplest interpretation of the seismic images is that slabs in general penetrate to the deepest mantle, although the flow is likely to be sporadic. The interruption in slab sinking is likely to be associated with the 660 km discontinuity.

Computer Simulation↗

Computational mineral physics and the physical properties of perovskite.

The inherent uncertainties in modern first-principles calculations are reviewed using geophysically relevant examples. The elastic constants of perovskite at lower-mantle temperatures and pressures are calculated using ab initio molecular dynamics. These are used in conjunction with seismic tomographic models to estimate that the lateral temperature contrasts in the Earth's lower mantle are 800 K at a depth of 1000 km, and 1500 K at a depth of 2000 km. The effect of Al(3+) on the compressibility of MgSiO(3) perovskite is calculated using three different pseudopotentials. The results confirm earlier work and show that the compressibility of perovskites with Al(3+) substituted for both Si(4+) and Mg(2+) is very similar to the compressibility of Al(3+)-free perovskite. Even when 100% of the Si(4+) and Mg(2+) ions are replaced with Al(3+), the bulk modulus is only 7% less than that for Al(3+)-free perovskite. In contrast, perovskites where Al(3+) substitutes for Si(4+) only and that are charge balanced by oxygen vacancies do show higher compressibilities. When corrected to similar concentrations of Al(3+), the calculated compressibilities of the oxygen-vacancy-rich perovskites are in agreement with experimental results.

Aluminum↗

Geodynamic and seismic constraints on the thermochemical structure and dynamics of convection in the deep mantle.

We revisit a recent study by Forte & Mitrovica in which global geophysical observables associated with mantle convection were inverted and the existence of a strong increase in viscosity near a depth of 2000 km was inferred. Employing mineral-physics data and theory we also showed that, although there are chemical anomalies in the lowermost mantle, they are unable to inhibit the dominant thermal buoyancy of the deep-mantle mega-plumes below Africa and the Pacific Ocean. New Monte Carlo simulations are employed to explore the impact of uncertainties in current mineral-physics constraints on inferences of deep-mantle thermochemical structure. To explore the impact of the high-viscosity peak at a depth of 2000 km on the evolution of lower-mantle structure, we carried out time-dependent convection simulations. The latter show that the stability and longevity of the dominant long-wavelength heterogeneity in the lowermost mantle are controlled by this viscosity peak.

Computer Simulation↗

Mantle-circulation models with sequential data assimilation: inferring present-day mantle structure from plate-motion histories.

Data assimilation is an approach to studying geodynamic models consistent simultaneously with observables and the governing equations of mantle flow. Such an approach is essential in mantle circulation models, where we seek to constrain an unknown initial condition some time in the past, and thus cannot hope to use first-principles convection calculations to infer the flow history of the mantle. One of the most important observables for mantle-flow history comes from models of Mesozoic and Cenozoic plate motion that provide constraints not only on the surface velocity of the mantle but also on the evolution of internal mantle-buoyancy forces due to subducted oceanic slabs. Here we present five mantle circulation models with an assimilated plate-motion history spanning the past 120 Myr, a time period for which reliable plate-motion reconstructions are available. All models agree well with upper- and mid-mantle heterogeneity imaged by seismic tomography. A simple standard model of whole-mantle convection, including a factor 40 viscosity increase from the upper to the lower mantle and predominantly internal heat generation, reveals downwellings related to Farallon and Tethys subduction. Adding 35% bottom heating from the core has the predictable effect of producing prominent high-temperature anomalies and a strong thermal boundary layer at the base of the mantle. Significantly delaying mantle flow through the transition zone either by modelling the dynamic effects of an endothermic phase reaction or by including a steep, factor 100, viscosity rise from the upper to the lower mantle results in substantial transition-zone heterogeneity, enhanced by the effects of trench migration implicit in the assimilated plate-motion history. An expected result is the failure to account for heterogeneity structure in the deepest mantle below 1500 km, which is influenced by Jurassic plate motions and thus cannot be modelled from sequential assimilation of plate motion histories limited in age to the Cretaceous. This result implies that sequential assimilation of past plate-motion models is ineffective in studying the temporal evolution of core-mantle-boundary heterogeneity, and that a method for extrapolating present-day information backwards in time is required. For short time periods (of the order of perhaps a few tens of Myr) such a method exists in the form of crude 'backward' convection calculations. For longer time periods (of the order of a mantle overturn), a rigorous approach to extrapolating information back in time exists in the form of iterative nonlinear optimization methods that carry assimilated information into the past through the use of an adjoint mantle convection model.

Computer Simulation↗

Zoned mantle convection.

We review the present state of our understanding of mantle convection with respect to geochemical and geophysical evidence and we suggest a model for mantle convection and its evolution over the Earth's history that can reconcile this evidence. Whole-mantle convection, even with material segregated within the D" region just above the core-mantle boundary, is incompatible with the budget of argon and helium and with the inventory of heat sources required by the thermal evolution of the Earth. We show that the deep-mantle composition in lithophilic incompatible elements is inconsistent with the storage of old plates of ordinary oceanic lithosphere, i.e. with the concept of a plate graveyard. Isotopic inventories indicate that the deep-mantle composition is not correctly accounted for by continental debris, primitive material or subducted slabs containing normal oceanic crust. Seismological observations have begun to hint at compositional heterogeneity in the bottom 1000 km or so of the mantle, but there is no compelling evidence in support of an interface between deep and shallow mantle at mid-depth. We suggest that in a system of thermochemical convection, lithospheric plates subduct to a depth that depends - in a complicated fashion - on their composition and thermal structure. The thermal structure of the sinking plates is primarily determined by the direction and rate of convergence, the age of the lithosphere at the trench, the sinking rate and the variation of these parameters over time (i.e. plate-tectonic history) and is not the same for all subduction systems. The sinking rate in the mantle is determined by a combination of thermal (negative) and compositional buoyancy and as regards the latter we consider in particular the effect of the loading of plates with basaltic plateaux produced by plume heads. Barren oceanic plates are relatively buoyant and may be recycled preferentially in the shallow mantle. Oceanic plateau-laden plates have a more pronounced negative buoyancy and can more easily founder to the very base of the mantle. Plateau segregation remains statistical and no sharp compositional interface is expected from the multiple fate of the plates. We show that the variable depth subduction of heavily laden plates can prevent full vertical mixing and preserve a vertical concentration gradient in the mantle. In addition, it can account for the preservation of scattered remnants of primitive material in the deep mantle and therefore for the Ar and (3)He observations in ocean-island basalts.

Convection↗

The thermochemical structure and evolution of Earth's mantle: constraints and numerical models.

Geochemical observations place several constraints on geophysical processes in the mantle, including a requirement to maintain several distinct reservoirs. Geophysical constraints limit plausible physical locations of these reservoirs to a thin basal layer, isolated deep 'piles' of material under large-scale mantle upwellings, high-viscosity blobs/plums or thin strips throughout the mantle, or some combination of these. A numerical model capable of simulating the thermochemical evolution of the mantle is introduced. Preliminary simulations are more differentiated than Earth but display some of the proposed thermochemical processes, including the generation of a high-mu mantle reservoir by recycling of crust, and the generation of a high-(3)He/(4)He reservoir by recycling of residuum, although the resulting high-(3)He/(4)He material tends to aggregate near the top, where mid-ocean-ridge melting should sample it. If primitive material exists as a dense basal layer, it must be much denser than subducted crust in order to retain its primitive (e.g. high-(3)He) signature. Much progress is expected in the near future.

Computer Simulation↗

Numerical models, geochemistry and the zero-paradox noble-gas mantle.

Numerical models of whole-mantle convection demonstrate that degassing of the mantle is an inefficient process, resulting in ca. 50% of the (40)Ar being degassed from the mantle system. In this sense the numerical simulations are consistent with the (40)Ar mass balance between the atmosphere and mantle reservoir. These models, however, are unable to preserve the large-scale heterogeneity predicted by models invoking geochemical layering of the mantle system. We show that the three most important noble-gas constraints on the geochemically layered mantle are entirely dependent on the (3)He concentration of the convecting mantle derived from the (3)He flux into the oceans and the average ocean-crust generation rate. A factor of 3.5 increase in the convecting-mantle noble-gas concentration removes all requirements for: a (3)He flux into the upper mantle from a deeper high (3)He source; a boundary in the mantle capable of separating heat from helium; and a substantial deep-mantle reservoir to contain a hidden (40)Ar rich reservoir. We call this model concentration for the convecting mantle the 'zero-paradox' concentration. The time-integrated flux of (3)He into the oceans is a robust observation, but only representative of the ocean-floor activity over the last 1000 years. In contrast, ocean-floor generation occurs over tens of millions of years. We argue that combining these two observations to obtain the (3)He concentration of the mantle beneath mid-ocean ridges is unsound. Other indicators of mantle (3)He concentration suggest that the real value may be at least a factor of two higher. As the zero-paradox concentration is approached, the noble-gas requirement for mantle layering is removed. We further consider the role that recycled material plays in ocean-island-basalt generation and show that a source with high (3)He and (3)He/(4)He must exist within the mantle. Nevertheless, only a small amount of this material is required to generate both the observed ocean-island (3)He/(4)He ratios and the concentrations inferred from basalt samples for this mantle source.

Argon↗

On the origin of noble gases in mantle plumes.

The chemical differences between deep- and shallow-mantle sources of oceanic basalts provide evidence that several distinct components coexist within the Earth's mantle. Most of these components have been identified as recycled in origin. However, the noble-gas signature is still a matter of debate and questions the preservation of primitive regions in the convective mantle. We show that a model where the noble-gas signature observed in Hawaii and Iceland comes from a pristine homogeneous deep layer would imply a primitive (3)He content and (3)He/(22)Ne ratio that are very unlikely. On the contrary, mass balances show that the partly degassed peridotite of a marble-cake mantle can be the noble-gas end-member with an apparent 'primitive'-like composition. This component is mixed with recycled oceanic crust in different proportions in the plume sources and in the shallow mantle. A recycling model of the mantle, involving gravitational segregation of the oceanic crust at the bottom of the mantle, potentially satisfies trace-element as well as noble-gas constraints.

Argon↗

Chemical and seismological constraints on mantle heterogeneity.

Recent seismological studies that use scattered waves to detect heterogeneities in the mantle reveal the presence of a small, distributed elastic heterogeneity in the lower mantle which does not appear to be thermal in nature. The characteristic size of these heterogeneities appears to be ca. 8 km, suggesting that they represent subducted recycled oceanic crust. With this stimulus, old ideas that the mantle is heterogeneous in structure, rather than stratified, are reinterpreted and a simple, end-member model for the heterogeneity structure is proposed. The volumetrically largest components in the model are recycled oceanic crust, which contains the heat-producing elements, and mantle depleted of these and other incompatible trace elements. About 10% of the mantle's mass is made up of recycled oceanic crust, which is associated with the observed small-scale seismic heterogeneity. The way this heterogeneity is distributed is in convectively stretched and thinned bodies ranging downwards in size from 8 km. With the present techniques to detect small bodies through scattering, only ca. 55% of the mantle's small-scale heterogeneities are detectable seismically.

Computer Simulation↗

The self-organization of space and time.

Self-organization is clearly relevant to biology, chemistry, Earth science, economics and other sciences that have to deal with big and complicated issues. This paper shows that self-organization also has a great deal to do with fundamental physics, including quantum mechanics, relativity, quantum gravity and cosmology. This paper also aims to give some insight into what self-organization means and discusses questions such as the kinds of methods that can be used to understand self-organization and how self-organization relates to other modes of explanation such as reductionism.

Evolution, Planetary↗

Palaeoclimatic insights into future climate challenges.

Palaeoclimatic data document a sensitive climate system subject to large and perhaps difficult-to-predict abrupt changes. These data suggest that neither the sensitivity nor the variability of the climate are fully captured in some climate-change projections, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers. Because larger, faster and less-expected climate changes can cause more problems for economies and ecosystems, the palaeoclimatic data suggest the hypothesis that the future may be more challenging than anticipated in ongoing policy making. Large changes have occurred repeatedly with little net forcing. Increasing carbon dioxide concentration appears to have globalized deglacial warming, with climate sensitivity near the upper end of values from general circulation models (GCMs) used to project human-enhanced greenhouse warming; data from the warm Cretaceous period suggest a similarly high climate sensitivity to CO(2). Abrupt climate changes of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle occurred during warm as well as cold times, linked especially to changing North Atlantic freshwater fluxes. GCMs typically project greenhouse-gas-induced North Atlantic freshening and circulation changes with notable but not extreme consequences; however, such models often underestimate the magnitude, speed or extent of past changes. Targeted research to assess model uncertainties would help to test these hypotheses.

Arctic Regions↗

Recent changes in the North Atlantic.

It has long been recognized that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is potentially sensitive to greenhouse-gas and other climate forcing, and that changes in the MOC have the potential to cause abrupt climate change. However, the mechanisms remain poorly understood and our ability to detect these changes remains incomplete. Four main (interrelated) types of ocean change in particular are associated in the literature with greenhouse-gas forcing. These are: a slowing of MOC overturning rate; changes in northern seas which might effect a change in Atlantic overturning, including changes in the freshwater flux from the Arctic, and changes in the transport and/or hydrographic character of the northern overflows which ventilate the deep Atlantic; a change in the trans-ocean gradients of steric height (both zonal and meridional) which might accompany a change in the MOC; and an intensification of the global water cycle. Though as yet we have no direct measure of the freshwater flux passing from the Arctic to the Atlantic either via the Canadian Arctic Archipelago or along the East Greenland Shelf, and no direct measure yet of the Atlantic overturning rate, we examine a wide range of time-series from the existing hydrographic record for oceanic evidence of the other anticipated responses. Large amplitude and sustained changes are found (or indicated by proxy) over the past three to four decades in the southward transport of fresh waters along the Labrador shelf and slope, in the hydrography of the deep dense overflows from Nordic seas, in the transport of the eastern overflow through Faroe Bank Channel, and in the global hydrologic cycle. Though the type and scale of changes in ocean salinity are consistent with an amplification of the water cycle, we find no convincing evidence of any significant, concerted slowdown in the Atlantic overturning circulation.

Arctic Regions↗

The future of the carbon cycle: review, calcification response, ballast and feedback on atmospheric CO2.

The operation of the carbon cycle forms an important part of the processes relevant to future changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide. The balance of carbon between terrestrial and oceanic reservoirs is an important factor and here we focus in particular on the oceans. Future changes in the carbon cycle that may affect air-sea partitioning of CO(2) are difficult to quantify but the palaeoceanographic record and modern observational studies provide important evidence of what variations might occur. These include changes in surface nutrient use, the oceanic inventory of nutrients, and the elemental composition and rain-rate ratio of marine particles. Recent work has identified two inter-linked processes of potential importance that we consider in some detail: the response of marine calcification to changes in surface water CO(2) and the association of particulate organic carbon with ballast minerals, in particular biogenic calcite. We review evidence from corals, coccolithophores and foraminifera, which suggests that the response of reduced calcification provides a negative feedback on rising atmospheric CO(2). We then use a box model to demonstrate how the calcification response may affect the organic carbon rain rate through the ballast effect. The ballast effect on export fluxes of organic and inorganic carbon acts to counteract the negative calcification response to increased CO(2). Thus, two oceanic buffers exert a significant control on ocean-atmosphere carbonate chemistry: the thermodynamic CO(2) buffer; and the ballast/calcification buffer. Just how tightly coupled the rain-rate ratio of CaCO(3)/C(org) is to fluxes of ballast minerals is an important question for future research.

Atmosphere↗

Evidence for rapid climate change in the Mesozoic-Palaeogene greenhouse world.

The best-documented example of rapid climate change that characterized the so-called 'greenhouse world' took place at the time of the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary: introduction of isotopically light carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system, accompanied by global warming of 5-8 degrees C across a range of latitudes, took place over a few thousand years. Dissociation, release and oxidation of gas hydrates from continental-margin sites and the consequent rapid global warming from the input of greenhouses gases are generally credited with causing the abrupt negative excursions in carbon- and oxygen-isotope ratios. The isotopic anomalies, as recorded in foraminifera, propagated downwards from the shallowest levels of the ocean, implying that considerable quantities of methane survived upward transit through the water column to oxidize in the atmosphere. In the Mesozoic Era, a number of similar events have been recognized, of which those at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary, in the early Toarcian (Jurassic) and in the early Aptian (Cretaceous) currently carry the best documentation for dramatic rises in temperature. In these three examples, and in other less well-documented cases, the lack of a definitive time-scale for the intervals in question hinders calculation of the rate of environmental change. However, comparison with the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) suggests that these older examples could have been similarly rapid. In both the early Toarcian and early Aptian cases, the negative carbon-isotope excursion precedes global excess carbon burial across a range of marine environments, a phenomenon that defines these intervals as oceanic anoxic events (OAEs). Osmium-isotope ratios ((187)Os/(188)Os) for both the early Toarcian OAE and the PETM show an excursion to more radiogenic values, demonstrating an increase in weathering and erosion of continental crust consonant with elevated temperatures. The more highly buffered strontium-isotope system ((87)Sr/(86)Sr) also shows relatively more radiogenic signatures during the early Toarcian OAE, but the early Aptian and Cenomanian-Turonian OAEs show the reverse effect, implying that increased rates of sea-floor spreading and hydrothermal activity dominated over continental weathering in governing sea-water chemistry. The Cretaceous climatic optimum (late Cenomanian to mid Turonian) also shows evidence for abrupt cooling episodes characterized by episodic invasion of boreal faunas into temperate and subtropical regions and changes in terrestrial vegetation; drawdown of CO(2) related to massive marine carbon burial (OAE) may be implicated here. The absence of a pronounced negative carbon-isotope excursion preceding the Cenomanian-Turonian OAE indicates that methane release is not necessarily connected to global deposition of marine organic carbon, but relative thermal maxima are common to all OAEs. 'Cold snaps' have also been identified from the Mesozoic record but their duration, causes and effects are poorly documented.

Carbon↗

Sea-ice switches and abrupt climate change.

We propose that past abrupt climate changes were probably a result of rapid and extensive variations in sea-ice cover. We explain why this seems a perhaps more likely explanation than a purely thermohaline circulation mechanism. We emphasize that because of the significant influence of sea ice on the climate system, it seems that high priority should be given to developing ways for reconstructing high-resolution (in space and time) sea-ice extent for past climate-change events. If proxy data can confirm that sea ice was indeed the major player in past abrupt climate-change events, it seems less likely that such dramatic abrupt changes will occur due to global warming, when extensive sea-ice cover will not be present.

Climate↗

Global warming and thermohaline circulation stability.

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) plays an important role in global climate. Theoretical and palaeoclimatic evidence points to the possibility of rapid changes in the strength of the THC, including a possible quasi-permanent shutdown. The climatic impacts of such a shutdown would be severe, including a cooling throughout the Northern Hemisphere, which in some regions is greater in magnitude than the changes expected from global warming in the next 50 years. Other climatic impacts would likely include a severe alteration of rainfall patterns in the tropics, the Indian subcontinent and Europe. Modelling the future behaviour of the THC focuses on two key questions. (i) Is a gradual weakening of the THC likely in response to global warming, and if so by how much? (ii) Are there thresholds beyond which rapid or irreversible changes in the THC are likely? Most projections of the response of the THC to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases suggest a gradual weakening over the twenty-first century. However, there is a wide variation between different models over the size of the weakening. Rapid or irreversible THC shutdown is considered a low-probability (but high-impact) outcome; however, some climate models of intermediate complexity do show the possibility of such events. The question of the future of the THC is beset with conceptual, modelling and observational uncertainties, but some current and planned projects show promise to make substantial progress in tackling these uncertainties in future.

Atlantic Ocean↗

Glacial integrative modelling.

Understanding the mechanisms of past climate changes requires modelling of the complex interaction between all major components of the Earth system: atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere. This paper reviews attempts at such an integrative approach to modelling climate changes during the glacial age. In particular, the roles of different factors in shaping glacial climate are compared based on the results of simulations with an Earth-system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2. It is shown that ice sheets, changes in atmospheric compositions, vegetation cover, and reorganization of the ocean thermohaline circulation play important roles in glacial climate changes. Another example of this approach is the modelling of two major types of abrupt glacial climate changes: Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events. Our results corroborate some of the early proposed mechanisms, which relate abrupt climate changes to the internal instability of the ocean thermohaline circulation and ice sheets. At the same time, it is shown that realistic representation of the temporal evolution of the palaeoclimatic background is crucial to simulate observed features of the glacial abrupt climate changes.

Cold Climate↗

Evidence for abrupt climate changes in annually laminated marine sediments.

Annually laminated sediments from marine or lacustrine settings represent valuable high-resolution archives of climate change that record variation due to changing precipitation and run-off from land or variation in biological productivity and flux in the water column. Because of their annual resolution such sediments may capture abrupt changes of interannual to decadal scales rivaling corals and ice cores in resolution. Laminated sediments often occur intermittently in the sediment column, and the onset and cessation of laminae commonly record the abrupt crossing of thresholds related to climate change, for example, in the degree of oxygenation of bottom waters. Such records from marginal basins and continental margins have been pivotal in demonstrating that abrupt changes hitherto documented only in high-latitude ice cores are synchronous with climatic change at low latitudes. These insights into global teleconnections have improved our understanding of the mechanisms of rapid climate change. In deep-sea settings, the discovery of the episodic occurrence of laminated diatom-rich sediments in the Equatorial Pacific and Southern Ocean provides evidence for massive climate-related biogeochemical excursions tied to abrupt changes in the input, distribution and availability of nutrients in the oceans.

Climate↗