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Method of stochastic prediction of population estimates based on Kendall's birth and death process.

"An attempt has been made to incorporate density and time-dependent birth and death rates into the generalized birth and death process given by Kendall (1948). The probability generating function of the process has also been investigated. A simple method of estimating the parameters of the process has been illustrated in the text. The applicability of the method for predicting the population of India, starting from the several deterministic projection figures given for any base year, is also discussed in the text."

Asia↗

Evaluation of procedures for improving population estimates for small areas.

"We provide and illustrate methods for evaluating across-the-board ratio estimation and synthetic estimation, two techniques that might be used for improving population estimates for small areas. The methods emphasize determination of a break-even accuracy of knowledge concerning externally obtained population totals, which marks the point at which improvement occurs." The techniques are illustrated using 1980 U.S. census data.

Americas↗

Estimates of future demographic changes in the coastal zone.

"This paper reports estimates of the relative and absolute sizes of the coastal population in the United States in the years 1990, 2000, and 2010. The estimates vary greatly among states in both the rate and direction of change, with increases expected for most marine coastal states and declines for most states bordering the Great Lakes. Together, only about 52.9 percent, 53.3 percent, and 53.6 percent of the United States's population is predicted to live in counties entirely or substantially within 50 miles of coastlines in the years 1990, 2000, and 2010, respectively. The need for long-range planning is not diminished, however, since the absolute size of the coastal population is estimated to increase to nearly 143 million people by the turn of the century."

Americas↗

Loose-coupling a cellular automaton model and GIS: long-term urban growth prediction for San Francisco and Washington/Baltimore.

"Prior research developed a cellular automaton model, that was calibrated by using historical digital maps of urban areas and can be used to predict the future extent of an urban area. The model has now been applied to two rapidly growing, but remarkably different urban areas: the San Francisco Bay region in California and the Washington/Baltimore corridor in the Eastern United States. This paper presents the calibration and prediction results for both regions, reviews their data requirements, compares the differences in the initial configurations and control parameters for the model in the two settings, and discuses the role of GIS in the applications."

Americas↗