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PubMed1998

Demography and the canonical ensemble.

The Gibbs canonical ensemble of statistical mechanics is used to describe the probability distribution of the age classes of mothers of new-borns in an age-structured population. The Malthusian parameter emerges as a Lagrange multiplier corresponding to a generation time constraint, while a new perturbation parameter appears as the Lagrange multiplier corresponding to a maternity constraint. Classical Lotka stability reduces to the unperturbed case of the more general canonical ensemble model. The model is used in a case study of the female (peninsular) Malaysian population of 1970. The Malthusian parameter and perturbation are calculated easily by linear regression. Use of the model identifies an anomaly in the population due to the effects of World War II.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2000

The changing demography of diabetes mellitus in Singapore.

Diabetes mellitus has been on the rise in Singapore, while Singaporeans are becoming more affluent, our lifestyles are more sedentary and our population is ageing rapidly. The prevalence of diabetes mellitus rose from 2% in 1975 to 4.7% in 1984, 8.6% in 1992 and 9.0% of adults 18-69 years old in 1998. Malay and Indian women and Indian men were at higher risk, with 14.3, 14.9 and 16.7% prevalence rates, respectively. A further 15% of the adult population have impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). Diabetes was a factor in 39.7% of strokes and in 9.3% of all deaths in Singapore, and is the sixth most common cause of death. In the Diabcare Singapore 1998 Study, 91% of participants were diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes, with mean BMI of 25.1+/-4.4 kg/m(2). The incidence of Type 1 diabetes in childhood is 2.46 per 100000 children 0-12 years of age, while Type 2 diabetes in childhood is an emerging problem. The prevalence of obesity (BMI >30 kg/m(2)) among persons aged 18-69 years rose to 6% in 1998, up from 5.1% in 1992. The prevalence of obesity was highest among the Malays (16.2%) followed by the Indians (12.2%) and the Chinese (3.8%). About 12% of schoolchildren are obese. Increased efforts must be made to change lifestyle and eating patterns in our society, reduce childhood obesity and encourage adults to make lifelong sports and exercise part of the Singaporean way of life. Singapore has one of the world's fastest ageing populations, and even now, 32.4% of Singaporeans 60-69 years of age have diabetes. We should consider screening for diabetes in obese schoolchildren and seek to improve quality of care for people with diabetes, including enlisting the aid of community organisations to improve access to diabetes education, monitoring, support and complications screening services.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

[French medical demography in Obstetrics and Gynecology in 2003: the trainees].

INTRODUCTION: The increase in the number of trainees in Obstetrics and Gynecology (OBGYN) in France since 1999 seems to be a problem for the quality of training and availability of post-training positions. There are no data available on the number and geographical distribution of trainees in OBGYN in France despite the recent and ongoing increase in their number. We performed a survey on the demographical characteristics of trainees in OBGYN in France, their distribution, and the eventual problems related to this increase in 2003. MATERIAL AND METHOD: We used available data from university, governmental institutions, and local trainee contacts. We compared these data to obtain a complete list of French trainees in OBGYN, with their demographical characteristics. RESULTS: In 2003, there were 710 trainees participating in the 5-year OBGYN program in France, 59.5% were women. The proportion of female trainees was not homogeneous throughout France. The number of post-training positions was not proportional to the number of trainees for each region and these numbers will rapidly be insufficient. DISCUSSION: Halfway through the increase in the number of trainees in OBGYN, training capacities of the French system will soon be saturated if not reorganised. There is going to be a major shortage in post-training positions for future newly trained specialists in OBGYN in France.

Demography↗
PubMed2001

Comparative demography of isogenic populations of Caenorhabditis elegans.

Demographic characteristics of the bacterial-feeding nematode Caenorhabditis elegans were determined in two long-lived mutant strains, TJ1052 (age-1), CB4876 (clk-1), and a wild-type strain, N2. Within each strain, there was little correlation between longevity and reproduction for individuals that lived longer than 10days. Long-lived mutant strains produced fewer eggs than the wild type. Mean total life spans were 13.2days for the wild type, 21.9days for age-1, and 15.8days for clk-1; maximum life spans were 24days for the wild type, 47days for age-1, and 32days for clk-1. Differences in total life span resulted primarily from longer post-reproductive survival. The mean post-reproductive life spans were longer than the wild type by 183% in age-1 and 60% in clk-1. We conclude that (i) post-reproductive survival is not correlated with egg production within isogenic populations of C. elegans, and (ii) the relationship between reproduction and longevity differs among isogenic populations with specific longevity genes.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Demography, recombination hotspot intensity, and the block structure of linkage disequilibrium.

BACKGROUND: Effective gene mapping based on genetic association data will require detailed knowledge of patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in human populations. It has been recently suggested that linkage disequilibrium in humans may be organized in a block-like structure, with islands of high LD separated by regions of rapid breakdown of LD due to recombination hotspots. The experimental data to date, however, are limited, and fundamental questions remain about the implications of recombination rate heterogeneity. Here, we use computer simulations to evaluate how such heterogeneity influences patterns of LD, and we develop formal criteria to assess whether the patterns are functionally block like in the context of association mapping. RESULTS: Our analyses suggest that, even in models of extreme recombination rate heterogeneity, some human populations will have a functionally block-like structure to the pattern of LD, but others will not, depending on their precise demographic histories. In fact, for many models, we find that, following an LD-generating event, populations may move through discrete phases that can be functionally described as pre-block, block, and post-block. An analysis of observed and expected patterns of LD surrounding hotspots within the MHC Class II region confirms these theoretical expectations. CONCLUSIONS: Even if highly punctuated patterns of recombination are the rule, patterns of LD are still likely to show differences among populations and among genomic regions that are of practical importance in the design of genetic association studies. The notion that the average extent of LD is a useful concept for the design of association studies must be abandoned in light of the experimental and theoretical evidence.

Demography↗
PubMed1998

Sectarian demography, territoriality and political development in Northern Ireland.

"Here we discuss, firstly, the limits of Census-based empiricism [in Northern Ireland] and the usually unacknowledged problems of data and interpretation which have resulted in a seriously misleading ¿conventional wisdom'. Secondly, we question its sectarian terms of reference, the over-identification of religion and politics, and misconceptions of ethnicity.... Thirdly, we focus on some of the flawed policy ¿solutions' associated with empiricism and sectarianism, including ¿internal' power-sharing and ¿consociational' strategies for political development."

Attitude↗
PubMed1997

Economic change and demographic continuity: the demography of Borne and Wierden (the Netherlands) in the period of proto- and factory industry, 1800-1900.

"The article tests some central hypotheses from theories of proto-industrialization. The work of Mendels and Medick suggests that prolonged intensification of cottage industry on a regional level will have significant consequences for nuptiality and fertility. Two family reconstitution studies in the Dutch region of Twente, an area with proto-industrial activities (linen weaving) since the second half of the seventeenth century, showed that with respect to nuptiality, there are no indications of the existence of a proto-industrial or industrial marriage pattern. It is argued that its absence, in spite of intensive cottage and factory industry in the region, can be attributed to the existence, on the level of the family, of a dual economy in which agriculture and textiles production supplemented each other well into the twentieth century."

Demography↗
PubMed1990

Demography of Muslims in Australia.

This paper describes the origins and size of the Muslim population in Australia, at present about 1% of the total population. Their age distribution is younger and their sociodemographic characteristics are different from those of the rest of the Australian population.

Australia↗
PubMed2004

Demography of French anaesthesiologists. Results of a national survey by the French College of Anaesthesiologists (CFAR) and the French National Society of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care (SFAR), supported by the National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED).

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The perception of a looming manpower shortage led the French College of Anaesthesiologists (CFAR) and the French Society of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care (SFAR), with assistance from the National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), to conduct a national survey of French anaesthesiologists in order to determine precise physician characteristics data, analyse professional practices and project future service provision. METHODS: The survey was based on self-administered individual questionnaires, approved by the National Committee on Informatics and Freedom (CNIL). The survey was carried out at the end of 1998 among 1484 hospitals (590 public and 894 private), under the supervision of local referees and regional co-ordinators. RESULTS: Of 9741 anaesthesiologists' posts, 5694 (58%) are in public hospitals, 3569 (37%) in private practice and 478 (5%) in private hospitals within the National Health Service, i.e. the participant au service public hospitalier (PSPH). Complex validation of the results was necessary to account for the missing responses and multiple sites of activity. The survey identified 8876 specialists practising anaesthesia and intensive care in France at the beginning of 1999, including 216 in French overseas territories. This figure is consistent with that published by the Medical Council (Ordre des Médecins) on 1 January 1999, identifying 8950 anaesthesiologists in France, including 234 in the overseas territories. Annual growth in the anaesthesiologist population has fallen from 9% pre-1989 to 0% in 1999. Male anaesthesiologists outnumber females (35.7%). The average age has risen from 42.8 yr in 1989 to 45.9yr in 1999. The age distribution of anaesthesiologists has become bell shaped, reflecting reduced numbers of younger practitioners. There are currently 14.75 anaesthesiologists per 100 000 people (compared to 12.9 in 1989), a figure slightly above the European average, but there is considerable geographical inequality between the north and south of France, with increased concentrations in large cities that contain university hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Future service provision must take account of falling numbers of new anaesthesiologists and an increase in retirements, but must also include changes in working practices, such as the European Working Time Directive. If anaesthesia manpower shortages are to be avoided, there must be a restructuring of the work-place, a redefinition of tasks and improved management of working time.

Age Distribution↗
PubMed2000

Population estimates of persons presenting to general practitioners with influenza-like illness, 1987-96: a study of the demography of influenza-like illness in sentinel practice networks in England and Wales, and in The Netherlands.

Incidence data by age of new episodes of influenza-like illness reported by sentinel general practice networks in England and Wales and in The Netherlands over a 10-year period were examined to provide estimates of the consulting population during influenza epidemic periods. Baseline levels of recording in each age group were calculated from weeks in which influenza viruses were not circulating and the excess over baseline calculated to provide the population estimates during influenza epidemics. Influenza A/H3N2 epidemics were associated with higher population estimates for consultations than influenza B, especially in the age groups 0-4 and 65 years and over. In the intervening age groups, population estimates were more consistent regardless of the virus type. Both networks reported simultaneous peaking of incidence rates in all of the age groups. There were substantial increases in the number of persons reporting other respiratory illnesses during influenza epidemics. Population estimates of the consulting population provide the only secure basis for which health services resource utilization during influenza epidemics can be estimated.

Adolescent↗