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Conduct disordered adolescents hospitalised 1963-1990. Secular trends in criminal activity.

Secular trends in the criminal activity of conduct disordered adolescents admitted as psychiatric in-patients in Norway were examined. A nationwide sample of 650 adolescents hospitalised with DSM-IV Conduct Disorder during the years 1963-1990 was followed up 12-33 years after index hospitalisation by register linkage to the National Crime Register. In all, 469 patients, 82% of the males and 57% of the females, had a criminal record at follow-up. The study population was divided into four consecutive cohorts and gender-specific cohort differences in registered criminality were investigated, using survival analysis. There was a marked increase and subsequent levelling off in overall registered criminality from the first to the most recent cohort of conduct disordered females, in contrast to unchanged crime rates in conduct disordered males. Monitoring specific types of crime, males' violent crime rates initially increased but levelled off in more recent cohorts, whereas female violent crime rates increased steadily, with the highest level seen in the most recent cohort. A marked increase in drug offences was observed in both genders. Cox regression demonstrated numerous strong cohort effects, even when controlling for other important factors, including substance use comorbidity. Research into causal mechanisms is warranted.

Adolescent↗

Secular trends in the incidence, mortality, and survival rate of gastric cancer in a general Japanese population: the Hisayama study.

To examine secular trends in the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer in a Japanese community, Hisayama, we established three study-cohorts of Hisayama residents aged > or =40 years in 1961 (1637 subjects), 1974 (2054), and 1988 (2602). Each cohort was followed up for ten years. The age-standardized mortality from gastric cancer significantly decreased from 2.4 per 1000 person-years in the first cohort to 0.8 in the third cohort for men, and from 1.0 to 0.2, respectively, for women (p < 0.01 for trend in both sexes). The five-year survival rate after gastric cancer significantly improved from the first (32.6%) to the third cohort (73.0%, p < 0.01) for men and from 43.2% to 72.3% (p < 0.05), respectively, for women. The age-standardized incidence of cancer in men was not different among the cohorts (4.3 per 1000 person-years in the first, 5.0 in the second, and 4.9 in the third cohort), while it decreased significantly in women (2.0, 1.8, and 1.2, respectively, p < 0.01 for trend). In conclusion, our findings suggest that in a Japanese population, the mortality from gastric cancer declined during the past 40 years, due mainly to the improvement of survival in both sexes and a decrease in the incidence for women.

Adult↗

Secular blood pressure trends in normotensive persons: the Framingham Study.

Trends in hypertension prevalence are difficult to assess because of a massive increase in the prevalence of antihypertensive treatment. Over the past three decades mean blood pressure levels among the 5209 members of the Framingham Study cohort have declined, and elevated blood pressure is only one third as prevalent. However, if those receiving treatment who have normalized blood pressures are defined as hypertensive, in addition to those with elevated blood pressure, the prevalence of hypertension has increased. No consistent secular trend in the incidence of hypertension was noted over three decades, but high blood pressure eventually developed in two thirds of the study cohort. To determine whether untreated blood pressure levels are changing over time, trends in mean blood pressure were examined in normotensive subjects over three decades. Only a 1 mm Hg decline in mean systolic and diastolic pressure over each 10-year interval was noted (p < 0.001). Thus blood pressure in the normotensive segment of the population has been quite stable. Because the incidence of hypertension is very high and future hypertension arises from the upper end of the normal blood pressure distribution, there is an urgent need for primary prevention. Preventive measures such as exercise, avoidance of salt and alcohol, and especially weight control deserve a high priority.

Adult↗

[Comparison of algorithms for the resolution of a secular equation in the vibrational analysis of biological molecules].

A computer analysis of several solution methods for secular equations leads to a determination of their optimum conditions. The results contribute to the application of a new preliminary method of frequency assignment to the vibrational study of the heavy atoms coordination sphere in complex biological structures, such as metalporphyrins and adenosine triphosphate.

Adenine Nucleotides↗

Are secular trends in major depression an artifact of recall?

There is evidence that rates of major depression have increased over this century, with successive birth cohorts showing increased lifetime risks and earlier ages of onset. Two memory effects have been considered possible artifactual causes of these trends: age-related forgetting and postdating early episodes. In this study, relatives were reinterviewed six years after study entry using interviewers blind to initial reports. We examined the stability of lifetime diagnoses of MDD and ages of first onset. Older relatives were no more likely than younger ones to lose diagnoses nor to postdate their ages of first MDD onset. This is evidence that memory artifacts are not solely responsible for the observed secular trends.

Bias↗

Secular trends in lifetime onset of MDD stratified by selected sociodemographic risk factors.

We used multivariate proportional hazards (Cox) models to investigate the effects of cohort of birth on age of first onset of major depression measured independently at two occasions, about six years apart, in the first degree relatives of probands with major affective illnesses. We estimated the cohort trends in strata defined by sociodemographic and other measures, to see if the cohort trends are the same across strata. Graphical summaries of the trends reveal a generally consistent pattern of increasing rates and earlier age of onset with successive birth cohorts, across all strata examined. The relatives with a divorced parent had a somewhat delayed secular increase, suggesting either a ceiling effect or an interaction of the two risk factors (recent cohort of birth and divorced parents) such that the combined effect is less than the sum of the individual effects. Otherwise, the cohort effect is persistent and ubiquitous in this sample.

Adult↗

International mortality trends and secular changes.

The decline in mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) in several countries, notably the United States, in the 1970s has drawn attention to the need for monitoring secular trends in mortality and morbidity from this disease internationally and to discover the reasons for any upward or downward changes. Mortality trends for CHD in 27 countries are seen to vary widely, being very similar for men and women. It is, however, important to view CHD not in isolation but in terms of total mortality (TM) and other specific causes of death. For a more comprehensive picture, it is also necessary to go back two more decades into the 1950s, requiring the use of a broader diagnostic category "nonrheumatic and hypertensive heart disease" (HD). Using examples from selected countries, it is shown that CHD and HD run generally in parallel, that HD trends often though not always determine TM, and that cancer trends may or may not follow those for HD. Since preventive measures for CHD are likely to be beneficial for the prevention of other diseases as well, the concomitant study of trends for several chronic disorders ought to be rewarding.

Adult↗

Secular trend in unipolar depression: a hypothesis.

To address the observation of a secular trend in the incidence of major depression, we have evaluated prevalence of unipolar depression in first-degree relatives of unipolar depressed probands, all of whom were studied in the sleep laboratory. A threshold value of reduced (less than or equal to 65.0 min) or non-reduced (greater than 65.0 min) REM latency was used to define groups for both parents and siblings. Unipolar depression occurred at the same rate in both reduced REM latency siblings (57.1%) and parents (66.7%). Siblings with non-reduced REM latency had a higher rate of depression (36.8%) than non-reduced REM latency parents (0.0%). Implications for biological and environmental factors associated with liability for unipolar depression are discussed.

Adult↗

Secular changes in age-specific cause of death in Sanday, Orkney Islands.

The purpose of this study is to describe secular trends in mortality for Sanday, Orkney Islands, Scotland between 1855 and 1974. Using information from death records, standardized crude mortality rates for each 10-year period were decomposed into 12 cause specific mortality rates. Differential contribution of each cause of death to the overall decrease in crude and age specific rates has been determined by comparing rates between periods of highest and lowest mortality. Although the decrease in rates was greater for females than for males, for both sexes, decreased mortality associated with respiratory diseases made the greatest contribution to the overall mortality decline. The decrease in death rates has its greatest effect during the reproductive period. Although results differ from those reported for England and Wales in the nineteenth century, they conform to estimates based on cross-national data from the mid-nineteenth century to the present.

Age Factors↗

Secular trends and the pattern of growth in arctic populations.

Examinations of growth patterns in Arctic populations suggest that Inuit/Inupiat (Eskimo) children display a unique pattern relative to European or continental U.S. children. This pattern--high weight for height--becomes established early in life and it has existed for as long as researchers have Inuit or Inupiat data. This paper will examine the growth pattern relative to the NCHS reference standard, using recent data from the Arctic and several indices combining height and weight. Of particular concern will be the persistence of this pattern in the face of secular trends in growth that have occurred over the past 50 years. Trends for height increase have been greater than those for weight but weight for height still remains well above the 50th percentile of the U.S. reference for these Arctic groups.

Anthropometry↗

Secular trends in stroke in the Framingham Study.

Trends in stroke incidence, prevalence, fatality, and severity were examined in Framingham Study subjects, aged 55 to 64, during 3 successive decades beginning in 1953, 1963, and 1973. There was no significant decline in incidence or prevalence of total stroke and transient ischemic attacks (TIAs). In women, but not men, incidence of completed ischemic stroke declined significantly. Stroke severity did decrease significantly and severe neurologic deficit was less frequent in later decades; fewer patients with stroke were unconscious on admission to the hospital. There was no substantial change in the case mix and no significant decline in hemorrhage to account for the decline in severity. The proportion of isolated TIAs increased significantly over the 30 years studied, yielding an apparent decline in case-fatality rates, which was significant only in men. Secular trends in stroke incidence and fatality did not follow a clear pattern. There was a significant decline in stroke severity, but incidence of infarction fell only in women. The decline in total case-fatality rate occurred only in men, resulting largely from an increased incidence of isolated TIAs.

Cerebrovascular Disorders↗

Secular increase and geographical differences in hip fracture incidence in Norway.

In 1988 and 1989, 2790 hip fractures were reported from the urban population of Oslo (annual incidence per 10,000 in the age group 50 years and older: women 118.7, men 45.4). For the same period, 385 fractures were reported from the rural population of the county Sogn og Fjordane (annual incidence per 10,000 in the age-group 50 years and older: women 74.6, men 36.7). The hip fracture incidence in Oslo had increased for all sex and age groups above 50 years (except women 50-59 years) in the 10-year period 1978/79 to 1988/89. The incidence of hip fractures in Sogn og Fjordane was only 65% of the incidence in Oslo. These results support previous reports on a secular increase and geographical differences in hip fracture incidence.

Age Distribution↗

Secular trends in cardiovascular disease mortality, incidence, and case fatality rates in adults in the United States.

PURPOSE: To assess the effects of changes in cardiovascular disease incidence and case fatality rates on secular trends in mortality in the U.S. population between 1971-1982 and 1982-1992. METHODS: Using data from the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study, two cohorts (10,869 subjects in the 1971-1982 cohort and 9774 in the 1982-1992 cohort) of participants aged 35 to 74 years were created. Baseline medical history questionnaires were administered in 1971-1975 and 1982-1984, with follow-up interviews, hospital record reviews, and death certificate searches conducted in 1982-1984, 1986, 1987, and 1992. RESULTS: Between 1971-1982 and 1982-1992, age-standardized cardiovascular disease mortality declined from 79.1 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 75.2 to 83.0) to 53.0 (95% CI: 49.5 to 56.5) per 10,000 person-years, while cardiovascular disease incidence rates decreased from 293.5 (95% CI: 284.5 to 302.4) to 225.1 (95% CI: 216.6 to 233.5) per 10,000 person-years. The 28-day case fatality rate for cardiovascular disease declined from 15.7% (95% CI: 14.5% to 16.8%) to 11.7% (95% CI: 10.3% to 13.0%). After adjustment for age, sex, and race, rates were 31% lower for cardiovascular disease mortality, 21% lower for incidence, and 28% lower for 28-day case fatality in the 1982-1992 cohort than in the 1971-1982 cohort (each P <0.001). CONCLUSION: The decrease in cardiovascular disease mortality between 1971-1982 and 1982-1992 was due to declines in both the incidence and case fatality rates in this national sample. These findings suggest that both primary and secondary prevention and treatment contributed to the decline in cardiovascular disease mortality in the United States.

Adult↗

Secular trend and regional differences in the stature of Italians, 1854-1980.

We present 127 years of data on the physical stature of military conscripts born in Italy during 1854-1980, as well as an analysis of regional variations in height (for birth cohorts born during 1927-1980). The height of young men has increased in all regions of Italy. The secular trend and the regional changes in stature are correlated with economic growth and a general improvement of living conditions. This is suggested by the relationship between height and various socio-economic indicators. A comparison of the 1927 birth cohort with the 1980 birth cohort shows that the mean heights for populations in Italy's southern areas, which were shorter than the national average in 1927, underwent the largest increases. In recent years, mean height has been gradually approaching an upper bound for all regions in Italy, with the exception of some central and southern regions. A multiple regression analysis evaluates the impact of living conditions on the convergence of regional heights.

Body Height↗

Secular trends in rates of unintentional injury deaths among adult Finns.

This study assessed the current secular trends in unintentional injury deaths among persons 15 years of age or older in Finland. For this purpose, we obtained from the Finnish Official Cause-of-Death Statistics (OCDS) the data for persons aged 15 years or older whose deaths occurred in 1971--2003 due to an unintentional injury. Among Finnish men, the most drastic change occurred in road traffic crashes. The age-standardised death rate (per 100,000 person-years) of men's road traffic crashes was 47 in 1971 but only 11 in 2003. In contrast, the rate of fall-induced deaths among Finnish men gradually rose, from 18 in 1971 to 24 in 2003, by which time falls became the leading category of men's unintentional injury death. Also alcohol poisonings seemed to bypass road traffic crashes as the cause of men's injury death. Among Finnish women, the age-standardised rate of fall-induced deaths decreased till 1975, after which the curve was rather flat. The death rate (per 100,000 person-years) of women's falls was 30 in 1971 and 18 in 2003. During the entire period of 1971--2003, traffic caused fewer deaths in women than men, but the declining trend in women's death rates was also clear, from 17 in 1971 to 5 in 2003. Other unintentional causes accounted for few deaths in women during 1971--2003, although it was of interest that the rate of women's deaths due to alcohol poisoning rose from 1 in 1971 to 4 in 2003. In conclusion, during 1971--2003 falls replaced road traffic crashes as the leading cause of unintentional injury death in adult Finns. The rise in men's fall-induced deaths occurred even with a rate that cannot be explained merely by demographic changes, and therefore, systematic fall prevention measures are needed to control the development. The rising incidence of women's deaths due to alcohol poisoning needs close follow-up.

Accidental Falls↗

Secular changes in head dimensions of Japanese adult male students over eight decades.

The aim was to study secular changes in head dimensions of Japanese adult males. The subjects were all of Japanese birth and Japanese ancestry. The age range of the subjects was between 18 and 25 years. Four head measurements were taken: head length, head breadth, head height and head circumference. In addition, stature and body weight were also measured. All measurements were made by one observer (Fumio Ohtsuki) from 1998 to 2001. The present sample was compared with the series taken between 1910 and 1917 of Matsumura (J Fak Sci Imp Univ Tokyo Sec 1 (1925) 1) and the one measured in 1965 of Morita and Ohtsuki (Hum Biol 45 (1973) 151). The present study demonstrated the presence of larger means for head length, head breadth and cephalic index in the current sample than in their predecessors of about 35-85 years ago. Also, the present series displayed larger head circumference than that of the Morita and Ohtsuki series. Using ANOVA, head length and head breath showed significant (p<0.01) differences among all birth-year cohorts from 1978 to 1983 of the current sample. Head height, head circumference and cephalic index did not display significant differences. However, the slope of the regression line indicated that all measurements as well as the cephalic index showed slightly decreasing tendencies during the investigated period. These results suggest that brachycephalization has been occurring for approximately about 35-85 years in adult Japanese males, but the change seems to have become reversed slightly during the period covered by the present sample.

Adolescent↗

Overweight status and weight control behaviors in adolescents: longitudinal and secular trends from 1999 to 2004.

BACKGROUND: This study examined 5-year longitudinal and secular trends in weight status and the use of healthy and unhealthy weight control behaviors in adolescents. METHODS: Project EAT-II followed 2516 adolescents from Minnesota longitudinally from 1999 to 2004. The population included two cohorts allowing for the observation of transitions from early to middle adolescence (junior high school to high school) and from middle to late adolescence (high school to post-high school). RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight (females: 28.7%; males: 28.0%) was high in early adolescence and remained high throughout adolescence. In females, between early and middle adolescence, there were steep longitudinal increases in the use of unhealthy weight control behaviors (48.6% to 58.8%, P = 0.001) and extreme weight control behaviors (9.4% to 17.9%, P < 0.001), and between middle and late adolescence, extreme weight control behaviors increased from 14.5% to 23.9% (P < 0.001). In males, extreme weight control behaviors doubled from middle to late adolescence (3.4% to 6.3%, P = 0.023). Use of diet pills doubled from 7.5% to 14.2% from 1999 to 2004 (P = 0.004) in high school females. One fifth (19.9%) of females in late adolescence reported taking diet pills. CONCLUSIONS: Overweight status and unhealthy weight control behaviors in adolescents are major public health concerns that warrant interventions addressing both problems.

Adolescent↗

Secular trends of motor vehicle mortality in the United States, 1910-1994.

To examine the secular trends of mortality from motor vehicle crashes, the authors compiled annual population and mortality data for the United States from 1910 to 1994 and performed an age-period-cohort analysis through graphical presentation, median polish, and Poisson regression modeling. During the 85-year study period, death rates from motor vehicle crashes showed two peaks, first in 1935-39 and then in 1965-69. Age and period effects accounted for 94% of the variation in motor vehicle mortality in men and 84% of the variation in women. Age patterns of motor vehicle mortality varied greatly with birth cohorts: for those who were born before 1910, death rates increased with age; for those born after 1910, death rates peaked at age 20-24 years for men and at age 15-19 years for women. A crossover characterized by a downward trend in death rates among the elderly and an upward trend among adolescents and young adults was observed in both sexes. The complex age, period, and cohort patterns of motor vehicle mortality are likely to have been shaped by changes in traffic patterns and driver behavior, and by improvements in safety design and emergency medical service systems.

Accidents, Traffic↗