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PubMed2000

Malignant melanoma: clinical variants and prognostic indicators.

The four main clinicopathological subsets of melanoma are described and the arguments for their retention in a research setting presented. Further additional subsets are described, including partly regressed primary melanoma, melanoma arising in a congenital naevus and multiple primary tumours. Pathological prognostic indicators are discussed and the pre-eminent significance of tumour thickness and its interaction with ulceration described. The need for accurate personal predictive profiles as distinct from those relevant to populations is discussed, as is the need for a molecular marker of metastatic potential.

Humans↗
PubMed2002

Angiogenesis as an independent prognostic indicator in node-negative breast cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To quantitate tumor angiogenesis in carcinoma of the breast (stage T2N0M0) by computerized image analysis of CD-31-stained histologic sections and, keeping in view the heterogeneity of tumors, to assess which areas of neovascularization provide the best prognostic indicator. STUDY DESIGN: Thirty-six cases of infiltrating duct carcinoma of the breast, stage T2N0M0, with follow-up of five years, were analyzed. All cases had received uniform initial treatment in the form of mastectomy with axillary clearance and radiotherapy. Intratumoral microvessel density (IMD) counts were done on "hot spots" and "non-hot spots" on CD-31-stained sections using computerized image analysis. Angiogenesis was correlated with other variables, such as age, menopausal status, histologic grade and proliferative activity by univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Hot-spot IMD counts were highly significant independent prognostic markers in univariate and multivariate analyses. Background vascularity of a tumor was of no value in prognosticating. CONCLUSION: In patients with node negative breast carcinoma, IMD counts in hot spots are an independent prognostic factor in disease-free and overall survival and can be used to separate out patients with T2N0M0 stage in need of systemic adjuvant therapy.

Breast Neoplasms↗
PubMed1997

Prognostic indicators in acute pancreatitis: CT vs APACHE II.

PURPOSE: To investigate the correlation between established contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) criteria of disease severity in acute pancreatitis and the APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) II score and to assess the utility of each as prognostic indicators in acute pancreatitis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Over a 1-year period, prospective, consensus interpretation of the CECTs of 35 consecutive inpatients was performed with determination of the CECT grade, degree of necrosis, and severity index. The APACHE II score was calculated within 24 h of CECT. Multiple clinical endpoints were recorded: local complications (pseudocyst, abscess, or acute fluid collections requiring urgent surgical or radiological intervention), systemic disease (intensive care unit admission), and duration of hospitalization. Statistical analysis was performed to determine correlations. RESULTS: No statistically significant correlation existed between the APACHE II score and CECT grade, the degree of necrosis, or the CECT severity index. Only the CECT grade and severity index correlated significantly with the occurrence of local complications (P = 0.0035 and 0.0048, respectively). The APACHE II score was superior to the CECT grade as a predictor of the need for ICU admission (P = 0.022 vs P = 0.035), and no other CECT criteria was a significant predictor of ICU admission. CONCLUSION: The preferred clinical and imaging prognostic measures in acute pancreatitis, the APACHE II score and CECT criteria, do not correlate with one another in the commonly encountered, mixed primary and tertiary care population. The mathematical integration of CECT criteria and the APACHE II score fails to yield a predictor of outcome superior to the use of any one measure alone. CECT criteria best define local anatomic abnormality, and are superior to the APACHE II score as predictors of local complications. The APACHE II score is superior to all CECT criteria as an indicator of systemic disease severity (reflected in the need for ICU admission). The most effective initial triage would be immediate APACHE II calculation. Further use of imaging vs clinical assessment can then be individualized.

APACHE↗
PubMed1975

Perfusion of ischemic ulcers of the extremity: a prognostic indicator of healing.

Forty patients with an ischemic ulcer of the lower extremity had peripheral vascular perfusion studies, performed with intra-arterial injections of aggregated technetium Tc 99m serum albumin microspheres (15mu to 30mu in diameter), in an attempt to develop an objective prognostic criterion for healing. The association between ulcer healing and the presence or absence of diabetes mellitus, palpable peripheral pulses, and patent trifurcation vessels on the arteriogram was reviewed and no association was noted. When, however, there was a relative hyperemia of the ulcer bed in comparison to the adjacent tissue of at least 3.5:1, as determined by counting the amount of radioactivity per unit area, 86% of patients went on to heal their ulcers. In those without this degree of hyperemia, only 11% were healed with conservative nonsurgical management. The results have shown that relative hyperemia of the ulcer bed is a clinically useful prognostic indicator in the patient with ischemic ulcer disease.

Diabetes Complications↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Stroke unit care--who benefits? Comparisons with general medical care in relation to prognostic indicators on admission.

The clinical outcome in 110 patients admitted to a non-intensive stroke unit was compared to that in 183 patients treated for acute stroke in general medical wards. At entry, the two groups of patients were closely similar in all prognostic indicators. Subsets of patients were analyzed in an attempt to identify groups that benefit more than others from stroke unit care. The stroke unit regime had little effect on short-term and long-term mortality rates in the entire stroke population as well as in subgroups. But after the care in the stroke unit, the need for long-term hospitalization in survivors was reduced (p = 0.0001). This difference in favour of the stroke unit was independent of the patients' age, the extent of neurological deficit on admission and previous history. In subgroups where the general prognosis is fair or good (minor neurological deficits and less than 75 yrs), SU care accelerated the process of rehabilitation, but the need for institutional care very late after the stroke was influenced only little. In groups with a poor general prognosis (major deficits and greater than or equal to 75 yrs), the ultimate proportion of patients able to return home was enhanced by SU care. It is concluded that care in a stroke unit benefits the great majority of stroke patients and that such a unit should be designed to admit all acute stroke patients without selection.

Actuarial Analysis↗
PubMed2005

Plasma von Willebrand factor level as a prognostic indicator of patients with metastatic colorectal carcinoma.

AIM: To evaluate the correlations of plasma von Willebrand factor (vWF) level with the distant metastasis and prognosis of patients with colorectal cancer. METHODS: A total of 86 patients with histologically confirmed metastatic colorectal cancers receiving treatment at Taipei Veterans General Hospital were enrolled. All patients had measurable metastatic lesions and life expectancies of more than 3 mo. Plasma vWF levels were measured by immuno-turbidimetric assay and compared with results from 40 non-metastatic colorectal cancer patients and 22 healthy controls. Patients with metastatic colorectal cancer were divided into two groups according to serum vWF levels and the differences between these two groups were analyzed using chi2 test. Data on age, gender, performance status, location of primary tumor, extent of metastasis, site of metastases, histological differentiation, serum CEA and plasma vWF levels were analyzed to determine association with survival. Survival curves were constructed by Kaplan-Meier product limit method and the data was analyzed using log-rank test on a microcomputer. Multivariate analysis using the Cox's proportional hazards regression model was then performed to determine the independent prognostic indicators among all of the possible variables. RESULTS: Colorectal cancer patients were identified as having significantly higher plasma vWF concentrations than healthy controls (P<0.05). Moreover, higher vWF plasma levels were associated with advanced tumor stage (P<0.05) and the presence of multiple metastases (P = 0.014). Patients with lower vWF plasma levels (< or =160%) survived significantly longer than those with a higher plasma vWF level (log-rank test, P = 0.0043). By multivariate analysis, plasma vWF levels (P<0.001), the extent of metastasis (P = 0.012), and the performance status (P = 0.014) were identified as independent prognostic factors. CONCLUSION: Our data indicates that high plasma vWF concentrations correlate with advanced diseases and significantly poor prognosis of patients with metastatic colorectal carcinoma. It may serve as a potential biological marker of disease progression in these patients.

Adult↗
PubMed2007

Early lymphocyte recovery as a prognostic indicator for high-risk Ewing sarcoma.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence suggests that lymphocyte recovery plays a major part in tumor control. Facilitating immune reconstitution might be a novel direction of cancer therapy. The purpose of this study was to determine if early lymphocyte recovery is an independent prognostic indicator for high-risk Ewing sarcoma outcome. RESULTS: Data of 24 Ewing sarcoma patients were analyzed (age, 3 to 50 y; median, 16.5; male to female, 16:8). The 5-year overall survival (OS) of the total population was 47.9% [10.6 standard error (SE)]. Patients were separated into 2 groups: prolonged lymphopenia versus early lymphocyte recovery, using a threshold absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) of > or =500 cells/microL on day 15. The majority (67%; n=16) of the patients had an ALC > or =500 cells/microL, and of these 10/16 are alive with a 5-year OS of 58.7% (13.2 SE). In contrast, 33% (n=8) of patients had an ALC <500 cells/microL on day 15 and only 2/8 are alive with a 5-year OS of 25% (15.3 SE). This difference was significant (P=0.007 using the log rank test). When comparing patients with metastatic disease, patients with an ALC-15 < 500 cells/microL had a median survival of 13 months, whereas patients with an ALC-15 > or =500 cells/microL had a median survival of 29.5 months. All patients had an ALC before chemotherapy of >1000 cells/microL. The difference was significant (P value=0.001 using the log rank test). Univariate analysis of platelet counts, age, sex, and absolute neutrophil count showed no statistically significant association with OS. CONCLUSIONS: The data demonstrate that an ALC > or =500 cells/microL on day 15 of the first course of chemotherapy is an independent prognostic factor associated with superior OS in high-risk Ewing sarcoma.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1992

Correlation of epidermal growth factor receptor and c-erbB2 oncogene product to known prognostic indicators of colorectal cancer.

Both epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFr) and the oncogene product of c-erbB2 have been shown to be expressed by human malignancies, and in some cases to relate to clinical outcomes. This study investigates the correlation between the presence of these receptor proteins and known prognostic indicators of colorectal cancer. Indirect immunoperoxidase staining of 32 freshly frozen surgical specimens revealed an overall expression of EGFr and c-erbB2 of 43% and 38%, respectively. A significantly higher rate of EGFr expression was found in tumours of more advanced stage (Dukes C and D), poor differentiation and those exhibiting vascular and lymphatic invasion. The presence of the c-erbB2 protein did not correlate with any of these variables. Expression of these molecules appeared to be independent and positive staining for both receptors occurred in only 19% of cases. EGFr may play a future role as a prognostic tool in colorectal cancer.

Adult↗
PubMed1989

Transitional cell carcinoma of upper urinary tract: some prognostic indicators.

Thirty cases of transitional cell carcinoma were reviewed over a twenty-year period. The incidence of bladder tumor recurrence was no different in those who had complete or incomplete nephroureterectomy. Grade and stage correlated well with survival. Intravenous urogram findings at presentation were important prognostic indicators.

Adult↗
PubMed2026

KLHL17 as a Prognostic Indicator and Therapeutic Target in Cervical Cancer: A Comprehensive Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: This study aims to clarify the role of kelch like family member 17 (KLHL17) in cervical cancer (CESC) is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To clarify this uncertainty, our research employed bioinformatics analysis coupled with experimental corroboration. METHODS: We utilized the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database to assess the expression of KLHL17 in various cancers, specifically CESC, and to explore its association with clinical characteristics, diagnostic utility, and prognostic significance in CESC. The current investigation delved into the potential regulatory pathways related to KLHL17, examining its connection with the infiltration of immune cells, the expression of immune checkpoint genes, the status of microsatellite instability (MSI), and the efficacy of diverse therapeutic agents in CESC. The research analyzed KLHL17 expression patterns using single-cell sequencing data from CESC samples and investigated the genetic variations of KLHL17 within this context. KLHL17 expression was validated using GSE145372. The presence and levels of KLHL17 in different cell lines were validated through quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) assays. RESULTS: KLHL17 exhibited irregular expression profiles across various cancer types, including CESC. Furthermore, increased KLHL17 levels in CESC patients were significantly associated with a lower progression-free survival (PFS) rate (hazard ratio: 1.62; 95% confidence interval: 1.01-2.60, p = 0.044). Moreover, KLHL17 expression emerged as a distinct prognostic indicator for CESC patients (p = 0.031). It has been associated with various biological pathways, such as cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction, primary immunodeficiency, cell adhesion molecules (CAMs), chemokine signaling pathway, steroid hormone biosynthesis, and others. The expression levels of KLHL17 were found to correlate with the presence of immune cells, the expression of immune checkpoint genes, and the status of MSI within CESC. Furthermore, KLHL17 expression exhibited a significant and inverse correlation with XMD15-27, rTRAIL, Paclitaxel, tp4ek, and tp4ek-k6. Furthermore, KLHL17 was found to be significantly positively regulated in CESC cell lines. DISCUSSION: The findings suggest that KLHL17 is involved in the progression of CESC and may serve as a potential prognostic marker and therapeutic target. KLHL17's association with immune cell infiltration and immune checkpoint genes indicates a role in immuneevasion. Future research should focus on validating these findings through independent datasets and experimental studies to elucidate the molecular mechanisms underlying KLHL17's role in CESC progression and immune regulation. CONCLUSION: KLHL17 is a promising prognostic marker and potential therapeutic target in CESC.

Humans↗
PubMed2004

Impact of serum interleukin-18 level as a prognostic indicator in patients with epithelial ovarian carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Interleukin-18 (IL-18), a cytokine produced by macrophages, is capable of inducing T-lymphocyte synthesis of interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma). In this study, for the first time, the serum concentration of IL-18 and its significance as a prognostic indicator was evaluated in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer. METHODS: The serum IL-18 level was measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in 69 patients with epithelial ovarian cancer and 8 healthy controls. Relationships between the IL-18 level and clinicopathological features were examined by univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: The median serum IL-18 level in the ovarian cancer patients was 229.6 pg/ml, and the level was significantly elevated compared with that in the normal controls (151.3 pg/ml; P < 0.01). No significant correlations were detected between the IL-18 level and stage or histology (P = 0.08 and P = 0.12, respectively). On univariate analysis, overall survival was shown to be affected by IL-18 serum levels. However, multivariate analysis failed to demonstrate an independent prognostic significance for IL-18 serum levels, while confirming the role of previously established prognostic variables, such as performance status, stage, and residual tumor. CONCLUSION: This study showed that IL-18 serum levels were elevated in ovarian cancer patients and were correlated with overall survival, although they were shown not to be an independent prognostic factor.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Increase in both CEA and CA19-9 in sera is an independent prognostic indicator in colorectal carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen (CA19-9) are well known to be the most common tumor markers of colorectal carcinomas. However, the significance of increase in these markers to predict the prognosis of the patients remains a problem for debate. METHODS: One hundred three patients with colorectal carcinoma, who had been treated by resection and reconstruction of digestive tracts were studied. Correlation of preoperative serum value of CEA and CA19-9 with clinicopathologic features including prognosis of the patients was investigated. RESULTS: Preoperative elevation of both of the two markers proved to be an independent prognostic indicator, however, an elevation of only one of the two markers did not obtain a prognostic significance. CONCLUSIONS: Combined data of preoperative increase in CEA and CA19-9 in sera can provide a powerful and useful information to predict prognosis of patients with colorectal carcinoma.

Aged↗
PubMed2006

Transient evoked otoacoustic emissions pattern as a prognostic indicator for hearing preservation in acoustic neuroma surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether pre-operative transient otoacoustic emission (TEOAE) patterns are predictive of successful hearing preservation in acoustic neuroma surgery. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING: Tertiary referral medical center. PATIENTS: A convenience sample was identified in whom pre-operative TEOAE data were available in patients undergoing acoustic neuroma surgery from 1993-2004. Ninety-three patients were identified who met this inclusion criterion. INTERVENTIONS: Subjects underwent attempted hearing preservation surgery via middle cranial fossa or retrosigmoid approaches. Routine audiometry, ABR, and TEOAE. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Pre- and post-operative pure tone and speech results were categorized into hearing classes A, B, C, and D as described in the American Academy of Otolaryngology guidelines (1995). Hearing preservation was defined by maintenance of the pre-operative hearing class or downgrade to within one hearing class post-op. Pre-operative TEOAE results were divided into five frequency bands and described as positive in each band if there was a response above the noise floor with >50% reproducibility. RESULTS: Hearing was preserved in 51 patients (55%). Of these, 11 (22%) had positive TEOAE response in all five frequency bands measured (1, 1.5, 2, 3, 4 kHz), whereas 40 (78%) had TEOAE responses ranging from 0 to 4 frequency bands. 42 patients failed to preserve their hearing. Of these, only three (7%) had positive TEOAE in all five frequency bands, and 39 (93%) had TEOAE responses ranging from 0 to 4 frequency bands (p<0.05). Other variables of prognostic significance to hearing preservation in our series included smaller tumor size, tumor location within the IAC, better pre-operative hearing, and shorter latencies on ABR. Logistic regression was then used to compare the prognostic value of TEOAE against these variables. In our series, ABR latencies and 5 frequency band response on TEOAE showed the highest significant correlation to hearing preservation (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: A robust pre-operative TEOAE frequency band pattern may be used as a favorable prognostic indicator for potential hearing preservation in acoustic neuroma surgery. The prognostic value may be enhanced when combined with other prognostic factors such as tumor size, tumor location, pre-operative ABR and audiometric results.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1998

Three- to 4.5-year prospective study of prognostic indicators in gastro-oesophageal reflux disease.

BACKGROUND: Data on the long-term natural history of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) are sparse. This prospective study was designed to determine the clinical outcome on the basis of therapeutic requirements 3 to 4.5 years after initial diagnosis of GORD and to identify specific prognostic indicators of a poor outcome. METHODS: One hundred and one GORD patients were followed up by symptomatic questionnaire 3 to 4.5 years after diagnosis and offered repeat investigation with endoscopy and oesophageal pH monitoring if symptoms persisted. RESULTS: Seventy-seven (76%) patients responded (mean follow-up period, 39 months; range, 32-54 months); of these, 28 had grade-II or -III oesophagitis at initial endoscopy, 17 had normal endoscopy but abnormal pH monitoring, and 32 had normal investigations but frequent heartburn. At follow-up 32 (42%) were taking acid suppression therapy, and a further 15 patients started acid suppression therapy after repeat investigation indicated a need to do so, giving a total of 47 (61%) patients receiving acid suppression. The following factors predicted a need for acid suppression at follow-up: oesophagitis on initial endoscopy (P = 0.009), abnormal pH monitoring (P = 0.0005), increased age (P < 0.0005), and increased body mass index (BMI) (P = 0.001). Gender, smoking status, alcohol intake, and lower oesophageal sphincter pressure had no prognostic value. Regression analysis confirmed that age (P = 0.0007), BMI (P = 0.04), and endoscopy result (P = 0.04) all independently affected outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Most GORD patients still require acid suppression therapy 3 to 4.5 years after initial diagnosis. Age, BMI, and presence of oesophagitis at initial endoscopy all independently predict those who will require long-term acid suppression therapy.

Adult↗
PubMed1989

Ploidy as a prognostic indicator in oesophageal squamous carcinoma and its relationship to various histological criteria.

One hundred surgically resected squamous cell carcinomas of the oesophagus were studied retrospectively to assess the significance of DNA aneuploidy as determined by flow cytometry using paraffin-embedded tissue. DNA aneuploidy was not an independent prognostic indicator but was found to be associated with tumour necrosis and host/tumour interface fibrosis. When tumours confined to submucosa or muscle wall were assessed, diploid tumours had a poorer survival rate than DNA aneuploid tumours. Other histological variables studied were tumour differentiation, depth of infiltration, glandular and small cell differentiation, lymphatic and vascular spread and host inflammatory response. These failed to show any significant association with ploidy.

Adult↗
PubMed2002

Resuscitation in the pediatric trauma population: admission base deficit remains an important prognostic indicator.

BACKGROUND: Base deficit (BD), as an endpoint for trauma resuscitation, has been extensively studied in the adult trauma patient but not in the pediatric population. We proposed that admission BD would correlate with outcomes after trauma in a pediatric population. METHODS: This study was a retrospective review of all patients admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit in an adult trauma center with pediatric commitment in whom an admission BD was available, over the 5-year period ending June 2001. RESULTS: A total of 65 patients formed the study population. Overall mortality was 20%. Patients who died were younger (6 +/- 5 vs. 9 +/- 5 years; p = 0.009), had lower Glasgow Coma Scale scores at admission (7 +/- 5 vs. 10 +/- 5; p < 0.0001), had higher Injury Severity Scores (24 +/- 14 vs. 14 +/- 9; p < 0.0001), and had lower Pediatric Trauma Scores (7 +/- 4 vs. 10 +/- 2; p < 0.0001). No patient with a BD less negative than -5 died, whereas 13 of 37 patients with a BD of -5 or higher died (37%) (p < 0.0001). Of the 13 patients who died, 8 never cleared their BD and died within 33 +/- 18 hours of admission. Failure to clear BD was associated with 100% mortality. Five patients who normalized their BD died of isolated closed head injuries (time to death, 37 +/- 18 hours; p = not significant). All surviving patients normalized their BD within 43 +/- 41 hours of admission. Seventy-five percent of patients who survived (39 of 52) had a normal BD within 48 hours of admission. CONCLUSION: Admission BD in the pediatric trauma patient is a strong indicator of posttraumatic shock. An admission BD of < or = -5 is predictive of severe injury and of poor outcome, with a 37% mortality in this series. Failure to clear BD is an extremely poor prognostic indicator.

Acid-Base Imbalance↗
PubMed1999

Low-risk endometrial carcinoma: assessment of a treatment policy based on tumor ploidy and identification of additional prognostic indicators.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were (1) to assess a treatment policy for patients with low-risk endometrioid endometrial carcinoma where adjuvant treatment decisions have been based on ploidy status of the tumor, and (2) to screen diploid, low-risk tumors for additional features of prognostic significance. METHODS: Between 01/1992 and 08/1996, 406 patients were referred to the B.C. Cancer Agency-Vancouver Clinic with typical endometrial adenocarcinomas limited to <50% myometrial invasion and no vascular space invasion or grade 3 disease on pathology review ("low-risk stage I endometrial carcinoma"). Patients were prospectively assigned to treatment groups based on tumor ploidy. Those patients with aneuploid tumors (n = 91) were treated with adjuvant vaginal vault radiotherapy while those with diploid tumors (n = 315) were followed and treated only at relapse. The hysterectomy specimens from all 14 patients in the untreated, diploid group who relapsed, as well as 28 stage- and grade-matched diploid controls who did not fail, were analyzed by immunohistochemical staining for estrogen receptor (ER), Bcl-2, and p53 proteins. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in the stage (Ia vs Ib) and grade (G1 vs G2) distribution for the diploid and aneuploid groups. Overall median age was 64 years (range 27-90 years) and was also not significantly different for the two groups. The median follow-up for the entire cohort is 45 months (range 1-76 months). There have been 14 failures in the diploid group and 4 failures in the aneuploid group with actuarial 5-year disease-free survival rates of 95.0 and 95.2%, respectively (P = NS). Eight of the failures in the diploid group occurred at the vaginal vault and were all subsequently salvaged with radiotherapy. All but 1 of the failures in the aneuploid group were considered incurable. Of the 14 diploid tumors from patients who failed, 7 stained positively for p53, compared to 4 of 28 diploid controls (P = 0.02). No significant differences were seen in the diploid tumors that recurred, compared to controls, with respect to Bcl-2 or ER expression. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with diploid, low-risk stage I endometrial cancers have excellent prospects for relapse-free and overall survival. Patients with aneuploid tumors treated with adjuvant radiotherapy have the same risk of relapse as untreated patients with diploid tumors; however, their ultimate survival may be lower as a smaller proportion of aneuploid failures are salvageable. While p53 expression in diploid tumors is associated with increased risk of relapse, Bcl-2 and ER are not useful prognostic indicators in this setting.

Adult↗
PubMed1998

Prognostic indicators for AIDS and infectious disease death in HIV-infected injection drug users: plasma viral load and CD4+ cell count.

CONTEXT: Plasma human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) viral load and CD4+ cell count are used to predict prognosis of persons infected with HIV. However, whether combining these markers improves prognostic accuracy and whether they predict prognosis for injection drug users (IDUs) and nonwhite persons infected with HIV has not been extensively investigated. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate plasma viral load and CD4+ cell count as prognostic indicators for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and infectious disease deaths. DESIGN: Cohort study initiated in 1988 and 1989 with follow-up for up to 7.9 years. PARTICIPANTS: Injection drug users infected with HIV recruited from the community in Baltimore, Md. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Plasma HIV-1 RNA and CD4+ cell count measured at baseline compared with time to first clinical AIDS diagnosis and death due to an infectious disease. RESULTS: Of 522 subjects, 96% were African American, 80% were male, 96% injected drugs within the past 6 months, and the median age was 33 years. A total of 146 cases of AIDS and 119 infectious disease deaths were seen during a median follow-up period of 6.4 years. Time-fixed baseline levels of viral load and CD4+ cell count were independent predictors of progression to AIDS and infectious disease deaths, but in proportional hazards models, viral load had better predictive value than CD4+ cell count. Kaplan-Meier analysis of time to AIDS and to infectious disease deaths by viral load (<500, 500-9999, 10000-29 999, > or =30000 copies/mL) at 3 levels of CD4+ cell count (<0.20, 0.20-0.49, and > or =0.50x10(9)/L [<200,200-499, and > or =500/microL]) was reduced to a 5-stage classification scheme using a backward stepwise regression procedure. The 5-year cumulative probabilities for AIDS and infectious disease deaths ranged from 0% and 0%, respectively, for group I (viral load, <500 copies/mL; CD4+ cell count, 0.50x10(9)/L) to 81.2% and 76.1% respectively, for group V (viral load, > or =10000 copies/mL; CD4+ cell count, 0.20x10(9)/L). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, plasma HIV-1 viral load independently and in combination with CD4+ cell count measurements provided powerful prognostic information for progression to AIDS and death caused by infectious disease in a population of predominantly African American IDUs. Combining categories of both markers provided a simple method for prognostically staging HIV disease.

AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections↗