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Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): analysis of the literature and model development.

The container-inhabiting mosquito simulation model (CIMSiM) is a weather-driven, dynamic life table simulation model of Aedes aegypti (L.). It is designed to provide a framework for related models of similar mosquitoes which inhibit artificial and natural containers. CIMSiM is an attempt to provide a mechanistic, comprehensive, and dynamic accounting of the multitude of relationships known to play a role in the life history of these mosquitoes. Development rates of eggs, larvae, pupae, and the gonotrophic cycle are based on temperature using an enzyme kinetics approach. Larval weight gain and food depletion are based on the differential equations of Gilpin & McClelland compensated for temperature. Survivals are a function of weather, habitat, and other factors. The heterogeneity of the larval habitat is depicted by modeling the immature cohorts within up to nine different containers, each of which represents an important type of mosquito-producing container in the field. The model provides estimates of the age-specific density of each life stage within a representative 1-ha area. CIMSiM is interactive and runs on IBM-compatible personal computers. The user specifies a region of the world of interest; the model responds with lists of countries and associated cities where historical data on weather, larval habitat, and human densities are available. Each location is tied to an environmental file containing a description of the significant mosquito-producing containers in the area and their characteristics. In addition to weather and environmental information, CIMSiM uses biological files that include species-specific values for each of the parameters used in the model. Within CIMSiM, it is possible to create new environmental and biological files or modify existing ones to allow simulations to be tailored to particular locations or to parameter sensitivity studies. The model also may be used to evaluate any number and combination of standard and novel control methods.

Aedes↗

Mortality pattern among initial survivors of acute myocardial infarction using a life-table technique.

The 5-year pattern of mortality among 475 immediate survivors of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (mean age 65 years on entry) is described by a life-table technique. The risk of death was highest during the early part of the follow-up. After 3-4 years, the prognostic influence of the AMI seemed to be overshadowed by the age effect. Special attention was paid to the incidence of sudden death, a fictive elimination of which was shown to reduce the risk of death by 9-22% during the different years of the investigation period. The absolute number of sudden deaths was highest during the early part of the follow-up period but the relative importance of this mode of death was approximately the same during the entire 5-year period after the AMI.

Acute Disease↗

Life table analysis of membership in an HMO retention.

The retention patterns of the Kaiser Foundation Health Plan (Oregon Region) were studied over a six-year period using a life table analysis. A 5% random sample, consisting of subscriber units that were enrolled at the initiation of the study of subsequently joined during the six-year period, were followed with respect to enrollment retention. The analysis presented here focuses on the 2,112 subscribers enrolled during the 1967-1970 period. These subscribers were characterized by the year they joined the plan and by their age and sex. The analyses showed that age of the subscriber and length of time on the plan consistently affected the probability of continued enrollment. The sex of the subscriber and the initial year of enrollment showed only a slight differential affect. A general pattern of high attrition in the first year, but rapid slackening thereafter, existed in all subgroup specific analyses. The utility of the analyses and the impact of the effect of differential membership retention on the plan are discussed.

Actuarial Analysis↗

Mortality and life-table in Down's syndrome.

The causes of death in 130 patients with Down's Syndrome and mortality rates from a material of 524 patients were tabulated; a life-table for the ages over 5 years was constructed. An overall death rate of 5-7 times the general population rate was found. No sex difference was observed. The excess mortality was expecially high for heart disease and respiratory disease. Also infectious diseases, others than pneumonia and tuberculosis, showed high mortality rates.

Adolescent↗

Model life table fitting by maximum likelihood estimation: a procedure to reconstruct paleodemographic characteristics from skeletal age distributions.

A procedure is presented that uses the regression coefficients for the Coale and Demeny west model life tables to model selected demographic characteristics from skeletal age-at-death distributions. Model death distributions were constructed and compared to a given skeletal distribution, using methods of maximum likelihood estimation to determine the best fit. Two chi-square tests are employed to evaluate the degree of fit. The resulting model includes estimates of demographic characteristics including gross reproductive rate, crude birth rate and life expectancy. The procedure is applied to three archaeological skeletal samples as test cases: two from eastern North America and one from Mexico. These display a range of correspondence (between the best fitting model and the data) from good to poor. The proposed procedure is a potentially powerful tool for both reconstructing paleodemographic rates and illuminating differences between typical human patterns and those found in archaeological populations.

Actuarial Analysis↗

[Life table and spectral analysis of endangered plant Taxus chinensis var. mairei population].

Based on the investigation in Longxi Mountain National Nature Reserve and the theory of survival analysis, a static life table of Taxus chinensis var. mairei population was worked out, the curves of its survival rate, mortality rate and killing power were drawn, and the population dynamics was analyzed by spectral analysis. The results showed that the survival curve of the population appeared to be a type of Deevey-III, and the high mortality of seeding was one of the important reasons which caused Taxus chinensis var. mairei to be endangered. The spectral analysis of the population showed that there was a marked periodic regularity in the process of natural regeneration of Taxus chinensis var. mairei.

China↗

Risk factors for the progression of treated primary open-angle glaucoma: a multivariate life-table analysis.

BACKGROUND: Several factors have been reported as risk factors for the progression of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) but previous reports were not necessarily in agreement. We applied a multivariate life-table analysis to a large number of longitudinal data to determine the extent of the influence of various factors simultaneously. METHODS: Two hundred fifteen eyes of 215 POAG patients were included. The follow-up period ranged from 24 to 134 months (average 82.7 months). The visual field stage was determined separately in upper and lower hemifields according to the classification of Aulhorn (modified by Greve). The progression was defined as an irreversible increase of the stage in at least one hemifield. The follow-up data were analyzed with the Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Mean intraocular pressure (IOP) in the follow-up period and the initial visual field stage significantly affected POAG progression (P<0.05). The risk of POAG progression was calculated to double as the mean IOP increased by 4 mmHg. Eyes with the initial visual field of stage 0-1 and moderately advanced stages had a greater risk of progression than other stages. CONCLUSION: To prevent the progression of POAG, the IOP should be kept as low as possible, particularly at the early and moderately advanced stages.

Age Factors↗

A two-sex nuptiality-mortality life table.

The "problem of the sexes" has been one of trying to reconcile inconsistent male and female demographic rates. The present paper deals with that question in the context of a two-sex nuptiality-mortality life table. A "rectangular" population, with equal numbers of persons in each age-sex group, is introduced as a standard, and a standardization relationship expressed in equation (9) relates changes in rectangular population rates to changes in age-sex composition. The standardization relationship is shown to satisfy a number of desirable properties and produce a realistic two-sex model. The standardization approach is then applied to data from Sweden for 1973, and the results and their implications are discussed. In particular, it is seen that the total number of marriages in a two-sex population neither is nor should be bounded by the total numbers of marriages in the associated male and female one-sex nuptiality-mortality tables.

Female↗

A life table analysis of the labor force participation of U.S. nurses, 1949 to 1980.

Data from seven inventories of registered nurses by the American Nurses' Association and the 1980 National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses are analyzed in a life table format to examine changes in nurse labor force participation. The results show a substantial increase in the labor force participation of nurses, as a nurse aged 20 could be expected to spend 28.5 years in the labor force in 1949 and 34.1 years in the labor force in 1980. Much of that rise seems attributable to increasing full-time employment. There is a positive relationship between participation in the nursing labor force and a nurse's highest level of educational preparation, but that relationship is not a simple one. Nurses with a master's or higher degree are very active in the labor force, while diploma nurses are much less likely to be employed. At the same time, nurses with baccalaureate degrees have relatively low rates of labor force participation, but associate degree nurses have rates rivaling the most highly educated.

Actuarial Analysis↗

Long-term prognosis of infertile couples with normal basic investigations: a life-table analysis.

The long-term prognosis of 58 untreated infertile couples with normal medical histories and physical examinations, and normal basic infertility investigations, including biphasic basal body temperature, hysterosalpingogram, postcoital test, and semen analysis, was studied using life-table analysis. Of these women, 34% were pregnant by six months, 76% by two years, and 87% by five years. These rates of conception were found to be significantly higher than those found in a large infertile population (P = .001). However, compared with the ideal fertile population, the study group for the first two years had a significantly lower conception rate (P = .001). It required two years for the study group to achieve a 74% fertility rate, whereas only nine months were required for the fertile group to achieve the same rate. The individualized approach for investigating the infertile couple is stressed.

Actuarial Analysis↗

Methylmercury exposure and mortality in Japan: a life table analysis.

The effects on life expectancy from elevated methylmercury (MeHg) exposure were studied in five coastal towns of southern Japan. Hair concentrations of MeHg in the study area were 3 to 6 times higher than the surrounding areas. From 1969-1972 to 1978-1982 life expectancy increased in the study area, with no appreciable difference between that area and the two control areas. When four major causes of death were deleted analytically in both study and control areas, malignant neoplasms contributed the most in recent years to potential gains in life expectancy for both sexes. For the duration of their working ages, however, accidents were the leading contributor for males, followed by malignant neoplasms, heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease. The relative contribution of these causes of death to gain in life expectancy in the study area population is discussed in the context of elevated MeHg exposure.

Accidents↗

Microcomputer-assisted univariate survival data analysis using Kaplan-Meier life table estimators.

We describe a microcomputer program (KMSURV) for exploratory univariate statistical analysis of survival data which is directly applicable to the evaluation of clinical trials and to retrospective epidemiological studies of hospital registry-based data. The program calculates life-table-like information based on Kaplan-Meier's product-limit estimators of the survivorship function S(t) and provides summary measures of average survival times. In addition, two non-parametric tests for the comparison of survival distributions are performed. A report-quality, high resolution plot of the S(t) estimates for all groups being compared complements each set of analyses. KMSURV is not a simple adaptation of a mainframe statistical analysis package and, thus, it utilizes efficiently the interactive environment which is inherent in microcomputing.

Actuarial Analysis↗