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PubMed1986

[Trends].

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Demography↗
PubMed1987

A stochastic population projection system based on general age-dependent branching processes.

"Algorithms for a stochastic population process, based on assumptions underlying general age-dependent branching processes in discrete time with time inhomogeneous laws of evolution, are developed through the use of a new representation of basic random functions involving birth cohorts and random sums of random variables. New algorithms provide a capability for computing the mean age structure of the process as well as variances and covariances, measuring variation about means. Four exploratory population projections, testing the implications of the algorithms for the case of time-homogeneous laws of evolution, are presented. Formulas extending mean and variance functions for unit population projections...are also presented. These formulas show that, in population processes with non-random laws of evolution, stochastic fluctuations about the mean function are negligible when initial population size is large. Further extensions of these formulas to the case of randomized laws of evolution suggest that stochastic fluctuations about the mean function can be significant even for large initial populations."

Age Factors↗
PubMed1982

A simple linearization procedure for local fit of the Weibull survival distribution: a note on an article by Choe.

The author comments on an article by Choe concerning the use of the Weibull survival function to fit curves to infant and childhood mortality data. "As an alternative to the computer program [employed by Choe], this note gives a simple linearization procedure that is easily executed by hand calculator. This procedure allows one to check the fit of the Weibull curve locally...for a range of ages (e.g. those from which one wishes to extrapolate). It also provides a simple way to find the Weibull curve parameters of optimum local fit." The procedure is illustrated using data for the period 1970-1971 for males and females in Taiwan.

Demography↗