Family-Wise Error Rate Control in Clinical Trials With Overlapping Populations.
We consider clinical trials with multiple, overlapping patient populations that test multiple treatment policies specifically tailored to these populations. Such designs may lead to multiplicity issues, as false statements will affect several populations. For type I error control, often the family-wise error rate (FWER) is controlled, which is the probability to reject at least one true null hypothesis. If the joint distribution of the test statistics is known, the FWER level can be exhausted by determining critical values or adjusted-levels. The adjustment is typically done under the common ANOVA assumptions. However, the performed tests are then only valid under the rather strong assumption of homogeneous null effects, that is, when the null hypothesis applies to all subpopulations and their intersections. We show that under cancelling null effects, when heterogeneous effects cancel out in some or all subpopulations, this procedure does not provide FWER control. We also suggest different alternatives and compare them in terms of FWER control and their power.