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At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
PubMed2005

The cognitive substrate of subjective probability.

The prominent cognitive theories of probability judgment were primarily developed to explain cognitive biases rather than to account for the cognitive processes in probability judgment. In this article the authors compare 3 major theories of the processes and representations in probability judgment: the representativeness heuristic, implemented as prototype similarity, relative likelihood, or evidential support accumulation (ESAM; D. J. Koehler, C. M. White, & R. Grondin, 2003); cue-based relative frequency; and exemplar memory, implemented by probabilities from exemplars (PROBEX; P. Juslin & M. Persson, 2002). Three experiments with different task structures consistently demonstrate that exemplar memory is the best account of the data whereas the results are inconsistent with extant formulations of the representativeness heuristic and cue-based relative frequency.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Individual variation in social aggression and the probability of inheritance: theory and a field test.

Recent theory suggests that much of the wide variation in individual behavior that exists within cooperative animal societies can be explained by variation in the future direct component of fitness, or the probability of inheritance. Here we develop two models to explore the effect of variation in future fitness on social aggression. The models predict that rates of aggression will be highest toward the front of the queue to inherit and will be higher in larger, more productive groups. A third prediction is that, in seasonal animals, aggression will increase as the time available to inherit the breeding position runs out. We tested these predictions using a model social species, the paper wasp Polistes dominulus. We found that rates of both aggressive "displays" (aimed at individuals of lower rank) and aggressive "tests" (aimed at individuals of higher rank) decreased down the hierarchy, as predicted by our models. The only other significant factor affecting aggression rates was date, with more aggression observed later in the season, also as predicted. Variation in future fitness due to inheritance rank is the hidden factor accounting for much of the variation in aggressiveness among apparently equivalent individuals in this species.

Aggression↗
PubMed2003

Estimation of nonuniform quantal parameters with multiple-probability fluctuation analysis: theory, application and limitations.

Synapses are a key determinant of information processing in the central nervous system. Investigation of the mechanisms underlying synaptic transmission at central synapses is complicated by the inaccessibility of synaptic contacts and the fact that their temporal dynamics are governed by multiple parameters. Multiple-probability fluctuation analysis (MPFA) is a recently developed method for estimating quantal parameters from the variance and mean amplitude of evoked steady-state synaptic responses recorded under a range of release probability conditions. This article describes the theoretical basis and the underlying assumptions of MPFA, illustrating how a simplified multinomial model can be used to estimate mean quantal parameters at synapses where quantal size and release probability are nonuniform. Interpretations of the quantal parameter estimates are discussed in relation to uniquantal and multiquantal models of transmission. Practical aspects of this method are illustrated including a new method for estimating quantal size and variability, approaches for optimising data collection, error analysis and a method for identifying multivesicular release. The advantages and limitations of investigating synaptic function with MPFA are explored and contrasted with those for traditional quantal analysis and more recent optical quantal analysis methods.

Algorithms↗
PubMed1984

[What is a safe principle for therapeutic decision?].

In surgery (as in other disciplines of medicine) a causal therapy is connected with a causal diagnosis. Many physicians confine themselves to symptomatic measures which are useless beyond self-healing or introduce some kind of poly-pragmasia. Sometimes between those extreme positions there is a need of deliberations "as if" or primarily diagnostic operations. Diagnostics as a whole consist of logical as well as of psychological elements. Approximation is made either by some kind of hypothetico-deductive calculations or using some kind of pattern recognition. Anamnesis and immediate personal examination yield a preliminary diagnosis in about 80%. Yet a diagnosis of this sort has to be verified or falsified by scientific methods. The final decision is a function of both the theory of probability and the theory of utility. The combination is demonstrated by the so-called decision matrix and the so-called decision tree, going from simple models to complicated ones.

Computers↗