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Multiple imputation for multivariate data with missing and below-threshold measurements: time-series concentrations of pollutants in the Arctic.

Many chemical and environmental data sets are complicated by the existence of fully missing values or censored values known to lie below detection thresholds. For example, week-long samples of airborne particulate matter were obtained at Alert, NWT, Canada, between 1980 and 1991, where some of the concentrations of 24 particulate constituents were coarsened in the sense of being either fully missing or below detection limits. To facilitate scientific analysis, it is appealing to create complete data by filling in missing values so that standard complete-data methods can be applied. We briefly review commonly used strategies for handling missing values and focus on the multiple-imputation approach, which generally leads to valid inferences when faced with missing data. Three statistical models are developed for multiply imputing the missing values of airborne particulate matter. We expect that these models are useful for creating multiple imputations in a variety of incomplete multivariate time series data sets.

Air Pollutants↗

Autonomic and behavioral responding to concealed information: differentiating orienting and defensive responses.

A mock crime experiment was conducted to examine whether enhanced responding to concealed information during a polygraph examination is due to orienting or defensive responding. Thirty-six undergraduate students enacted one of two mock crimes. Pictures related to both crimes were presented while heart rate, magnitude of the skin conductance response, and reaction times to a secondary probe were measured. Compared to control pictures, participants showed heart rate deceleration and enhanced electrodermal responding to pictures of the crime they had committed. Probe reaction times did not differ significantly between crime and control pictures. The present findings support the idea that the orienting reflex accounts for the enhanced responding to concealed information. Theoretical and practical implications of the orienting account are discussed.

Adult↗

An ERP-based, control-question lie detector analog: algorithms for discriminating effects within individuals' average waveforms.

Two experimental, P3-based analog control question tests were run. In both, guilty subjects were presented with a set of seven phrases describing antisocial acts of which they were innocent, plus one phrase describing a guilty act (the analog relevant question), and one act to which a "yes" response (yes-target stimulus) was required to assure attention. Innocent subjects (run only in Experiment 1) saw all innocent acts plus the yes-target act. Thus nine acts were seen by guilty and innocent subjects. In both experiments, all subjects had to selectively review their guilty acts privately. Also in both experiments, all subjects were especially questioned about four acts of which guilty subjects were known to be innocent of all but one, and of which innocent subjects were known to be innocent of all. (These falsely accused acts were regarded as control question analogs.) In Experiment 1, the private review and rehearsal took place on the same day as the main test. In Experiment 2, one subgroup (delay-only) of guilty subjects was run as in Experiment 1, except that the private review-rehearsal was separated from the main run by 7-14 days. Another subgroup (delay-rehearsal) of guilty subjects was run just as was the subgroup delay-only, except that the delay-rehearsal subgroup additionally received a non-selective additional interrogation/rehearsal on the delayed main run day. Parietally maximal P3 responses were obtained to yes-target items in all groups. In Experiment 1, only in the guilty group was the relevant-minus-control P3 amplitude difference significant. In Experiment 2, the difference was significant only in the delay-rehearsal subgroup. A four-step algorithm (involving relevant-control amplitude differences and relevant target vs. control-target cross-correlations) was used to assess effects within individuals. In Experiment 1, 12 of 13 guilty subjects and 13 of 15 innocent subjects were correctly diagnosed. In Experiment 2, 3 of 8 delay-only subjects and 7 of 8 delay-rehearsal subjects were correctly diagnosed. In Experiment 2, the relevant-minus-control group P3 amplitude difference was significant in the delay-rehearsal but not in the delay-only subgroup. The results suggest that temporally proximal, non-selective rehearsal procedures are sufficient to activate personal knowledge of a salient (oddball), P3-generating stimulus phrase, and that even selective rehearsal of guilty acts is not sufficient without temporal proximity.

Adolescent↗

Mental and physical countermeasures reduce the accuracy of the concealed knowledge test.

The effects of a physical (pressing the toes to the floor) and a mental (counting backward by sevens) countermeasure on the concealed knowledge test (CKT) were examined in a mock crime experiment with 40 subjects. Some knowledgeable subjects were informed about the nature of the CKT and were trained in the use of a countermeasure, whereas others remained uninformed. All subjects were offered a monetary reward if they could produce a truthful outcome. Subjects were tested using standard field techniques and instrumentation. The physical and, to a lesser extent, the mental countermeasures reduced the accuracy of the CKT. These results clearly demonstrate that the CKT has no special immunity to the effects of countermeasures.

Adult↗

Psychopathic traits and autonomic responding to concealed information in a prison sample.

We examined the role of psychopathic traits on physiological responding during a concealed information polygraph test among prison inmates (n = 40). The Psychopathic Personality Inventory (Lilienfeld & Andrews, 1996) was used to assess psychopathic traits. Cardiac, electrodermal, and respiratory responses were measured while participants were presented with personal and control names and asked to conceal recognition of personal information. We first piloted the present concealed information test in a sample of undergraduates (n = 27). Enhanced orienting to concealed information compared to control information was observed in both prisoners and undergraduates. However, prisoners scoring high on the Impulsive Antisociality factor of the Psychopathic Personality Inventory (PPI-II) exhibited reduced electrodermal responding. This finding indicates that the sensitivity of the concealed information test may be decreased in antisocial offenders.

Adolescent↗

Hypnosis and evidence: help or hindrance?

Clarifying misconceptions about hypnosis can reduce confusion about the place of hypnosis in forensic medicine. Hypnosis identifies a person's capacity for attentive, receptive concentration with parallel awareness. While in trance concentration, memory recall under interrogation should not only be subject to all the usual investigative safeguards with checks and balances, but even more so because the leverage effect of hypnotically enhanced memory is achieved at the risk of contamination by external and/or internal cues. This Janus-like feature enables incredibly accurate revivification and recall of perceived events but can also evoke false memories, false confessions, and the "honest liar syndrome." The internal and external factors that account for these contradictory possibilities--and the appropriate safeguards--are considered with case illustrations. In addition, a new use of trance capacity assessment contributes to clarifying diagnosis and the mental defect/disease issue. Knowledge of the uses and limits of hypnosis by the interrogating professionals enhance the judicious process of eliciting information and evidence.

Crime↗