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PubMed2006

Enhancing urban infrastructure investment planning practices for a changing climate.

Climate change raises many concerns for urban water management because of the effects on all aspects of the hydrological cycle. Urban water infrastructure has traditionally been designed using historical observations and assuming stationary climatic conditions. The capability of this infrastructure, whether for storm-water drainage, or water supply, may be over- or under-designed for future climatic conditions. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events will have the most acute effect on storm-water drainage systems. Therefore, it is necessary to take future climatic conditions into consideration in engineering designs in order to enhance water infrastructure investment planning practices in a long time horizon. This paper provides the initial results of a study that is examining ways to enhance urban infrastructure investment planning practices against changes in hydrologic regimes for a changing climate. Design storms and intensity-duration-frequency curves that are used in the engineering design of storm-water drainage systems are developed under future climatic conditions by empirically adjusting the general circulation model output, and using the Gumbel distribution and the Chicago method. Simulations are then performed on an existing storm-water drainage system from NE Calgary to investigate the resiliency of the system under climate change.

Alberta↗
PubMed1994

Seasonal fluctuation in the incidence of intracranial aneurysm rupture and its relationship to changing climatic conditions.

Seasonal and climatic variations have been linked to the occurrence of some types of cerebrovascular disease; however, the conditions that lead to intracranial aneurysm rupture are not known. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether seasonal and climatic conditions are related to intracranial aneurysm rupture. Data provided by the Connecticut Health Information Management and Exchange were analyzed for all patients with a primary diagnosis of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) for the fiscal years 1981, 1983, 1985, 1987, 1988, and 1989. Patient records were correlated with climatic conditions for the years 1981 to 1989 obtained from the National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Environmental Satellite Data, and Information Service. During the time periods studied, 1487 patients with a primary diagnosis of aneurysmal SAH were treated by reporting hospitals. Seasonal variation in the incidence of aneurysmal SAH and admission clustering were observed but differed significantly between men and women. Men showed a single large peak in late fall (Roger's r = 11.5, p < 0.005), whereas women had an annual peak occurring in late spring (Roger's r = 10.3, p < 0.01). Substantial climatic change occurred during the 72 hours prior to 10 of the 14 clusters of men who were admitted (p < 0.01, Yates' corrected chi-square 7.33, df = 1). In contrast, clusters of women admitted were not related to preceding climatic change (p > 0.25, Yates' corrected chi-square 0.06, df = 1). Hospital admissions for aneurysmal SAH display seasonal fluctuation, with women showing a different seasonal pattern from men. Changing climatic conditions precede aneurysm rupture in men but not in women, which suggests that weather is causally related to aneurysm rupture in men, and that factors that lead to aneurysm rupture in women may be different from those in men. These data do not explain why weather fronts or gradients are associated with aneurysm rupture in men.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

Climate↗
PubMed2004

[Prediction of the impact of climate warming on transmission of schistosomiasis in China].

OBJECTIVE: To predict the intensity and scale of impact on transmission of schistosomiasis japonica in China caused by the climate warming. METHODS: By using climate data from 193 weather stations in China from 1951 to 2000, the GIS database was created to analyze the tendency of average daily temperature. By using the results from the effective accumulated temperature models on Oncomelania snails and Schistosoma japonicum, the climate-transmission model for schistosomiasis was established at country level, by which the spatio-temporal analysis was performed to create the distribution maps of Oncomelania snails and Schistosoma japonicum, respectively, by means of GIS approaches based on the ratio of effective accumulated temperature to the snail or the parasite development temperature (ET/SDT) in all 193 stations. The potential distribution maps with the dispersal risk areas of schistosomiasis japonica in 2030 and 2050 were created based on forecast data that the average temperature of the country will increase by 1.7 degrees C in 2030 and by 2.2 degrees C in 2050. RESULTS: The GIS database of climate-schistosomiasis of the country was established. It was found that the average temperature in the last 5 decades inclined, especially after 1990 it increased significantly with its increasing regression formula T = 0.0198X - 28.476. The climate-transmission model for schistosomiasis was established, and it was found that the geographical distribution of Schistosoma japonicum was much larger than that of Oncomelania snails based on the ratio of ET/SDT. The prediction maps for distribution of schistosomiasis in 2030 and 2050 were created, respectively, which showed that the sensitive areas were extended with the time, the risk of expansion northward for schistosomiasis will be increasing due to directly the climate warming. CONCLUSION: It is predicted that a northward expansion of transmission area of schistosomiasis may occur due to the climate warming, the expanded potential area for schistosomiasis transmission will be important for future surveillance.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

[Study on eco-climatic applicability of Angelica sinensis].

OBJECTIVE: In the interest of establish planting base of Angelica sinensis on a large scale, enhance economic benefit, and improve decision-making reasons, the eco-climatic applicability of A. sinensis was studied. METHOD: Using integral regression, eco-climatic applicability and the effect of meteorological conditions for the yield of A. sinensis' were analysed by field experimental data. RESULT: Selected > or =0 degrees C accumulated temperature and annual precipitation as leading index, altitude as assistant index, yield and rate of finished products as reference index, the integrated eco-climatic division index and the planting division applicability of A. sinensis was confirmed. CONCLUSION: Accordancing to theory of climate similitude and leading index summarisation, combining with assistant index and reference index, the integrated division index of eco-climate was confirmed. The planting division of co-climate applicability was divided into 5 grades as best suitable, suitable hypo-suitable, just suitable and no suitable regions. At the same time,the way to enhanced utilizing efficiency of eco-climate resources was brought forward.

Angelica sinensis↗
PubMed2004

Implications of abrupt climate change.

Records of past climates contained in ice cores, ocean sediments, and other archives show that large, abrupt, widespread climate changes have occurred repeatedly in the past. These changes were especially prominent during the cooling into and warming out of the last ice age, but persisted into the modern warm interval. Changes have especially affected water availability in warm regions and temperature in cold regions, but have affected almost all climatic variables across much or all of the Earth. Impacts of climate changes are smaller if the changes are slower or more-expected. The rapidity of abrupt climate changes, together with the difficulty of predicting such changes, means that impacts on the health of humans, economies and ecosystems will be larger if abrupt climate changes occur. Most projections of future climate include only gradual changes, whereas paleoclimatic data plus models indicate that abrupt changes remain possible; thus, policy is being made based on a view of the future that may be optimistic.

Climate↗
PubMed1995

[Dermatologic climate therapy--definition, indications and public health necessity].

Dermatological climatotherapy is used in the treatment of chronic and chronically relapsing long-term dermatoses, such as, especially, atopic dermatitis and psoriasis, complementing the dermatological therapies applied at the patient's place of living. It is a classical dermatological in-clinic therapy carried through in specific rough and stimulating climate areas of proven therapeutic benefit, primarily the North Sea climate and certain alpine locations over 1 500 m above sea-level, like especially in the high mountain valley of Davos, Switzerland. Dermatological climatotherapy is a well-tried therapeutic agent which, in comparison to the dermatological therapies applied at home, as a rule has fewer side effects as well as, above all, an additional long-lasting time effect. The latter is of particular importance regarding chronical diseases and cannot be achieved by other therapies. Dermatological climatotherapy, hence, represents an all-entailing therapy form and moreover is the most comprehensive therapy anyway. Dermatological climatotherapy can only be performed in rough and stimulating climate zones with additional special insolation, thermichygric and defined aerosol conditions. On the one hand, the organism is stabilized general by those climatic conditions, and, on the other, the constitutionally damaged skin is affected positively by the direct influence of climate factors. As every climate has its specific overall effect, the therapeutical immediate and long-term effects of a climate have to be proven scientifically by follow-up studies.

Acclimatization↗
PubMed1996

Global climate change and emerging infectious diseases.

Climatic factors influence the emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases, in addition to multiple human, biological, and ecological determinants. Climatologists have identified upward trends in global temperatures and now estimate an unprecedented rise of 2.0 degrees C by the year 2100. Of major concern is that these changes can affect the introduction and dissemination of many serious infectious diseases. The incidence of mosquito-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue, and viral encephalitides, are among those diseases most sensitive to climate. Climate change would directly affect disease transmission by shifting the vector's geographic range and increasing reproductive and biting rates and by shortening the pathogen incubation period. Climate-related increases in sea surface temperature and sea level can lead to higher incidence of water-borne infectious and toxin-related illnesses, such as cholera and shellfish poisoning. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from the projected increase in climate variability could indirectly contribute to disease transmission. Human susceptibility to infections might be further compounded by malnutrition due to climate stress on agriculture and potential alterations in the human immune system caused by increased flux of ultraviolet radiation. Analyzing the role of climate in the emergence of human infectious diseases will require interdisciplinary cooperation among physicians, climatologists, biologists, and social scientists. Increased disease surveillance, integrated modeling, and use of geographically based data systems will afford more anticipatory measures by the medical community. Understanding the linkages between climatological and ecological change as determinants of disease emergence and redistribution will ultimately help optimize preventive strategies.

Animals↗
PubMed1994

Detecting climate-induced patterns using wavelet analysis.

One of the difficulties encountered in the detection of ecosystem responses to climate change is distinguishing climate-induced patterns from those created by other sources. For example, changes in the trend of stream discharge records over time may reflect a composite response of changes in the climate (i.e. precipitation and temperature), land-use (e.g. timber harvesting and grazing), and local basin characteristics. Methods which quantify and relate information of temporal and spatial patterns across scales are critical to assess climatically induced changes in the forest and stream ecosystems. A methodology utilizing wavelet analysis is introduced for the purpose of identifying and isolating inferred climatic components of the hydrologic record. Trends observed in stream discharge records from eastern Oregon, USA are identified and used to illustrate the utility of a new time series technique, wavelet analysis, as a complementary approach for discerning pattern. This methodology affords an informed procedure for choosing filter dimensions for the purpose of signal decomposition. The wavelet cross-covariance is applied to precipitation and discharge records to identify the climatic component in the discharge record. Reconstruction of these dominant frequencies is effected to isolate the climatic components. The discharge pattern shows two dominant scales of pattern coincident with the precipitation record. A 3-year half-period pattern is found to be correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index at the same frequency.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2006

Safety climate and self-reported injury: assessing the mediating role of employee safety control.

To further reduce injuries in the workplace, companies have begun focusing on organizational factors which may contribute to workplace safety. Safety climate is an organizational factor commonly cited as a predictor of injury occurrence. Characterized by the shared perceptions of employees, safety climate can be viewed as a snapshot of the prevailing state of safety in the organization at a discrete point in time. However, few studies have elaborated plausible mechanisms through which safety climate likely influences injury occurrence. A mediating model is proposed to link safety climate (i.e., management commitment to safety, return-to-work policies, post-injury administration, and safety training) with self-reported injury through employees' perceived control on safety. Factorial evidence substantiated that management commitment to safety, return-to-work policies, post-injury administration, and safety training are important dimensions of safety climate. In addition, the data support that safety climate is a critical factor predicting the history of a self-reported occupational injury, and that employee safety control mediates the relationship between safety climate and occupational injury. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating organizational factors and workers' characteristics in efforts to improve organizational safety performance.

Accidents, Occupational↗
PubMed1997

Safety climate and attitude as evaluation measures of organizational safety.

The main aim of this research is to develop a set of evaluation measures for safety attitudes and safety climate. Specifically it is intended: (a) to test the instruments; (b) to identify the essential dimensions of the safety climate in the airport ground handling companies; (c) to assess the quality of the differences in the safety climate for each company and its relation to the accident rate; (d) to analyse the relationship between attitudes and safety climate; and (e) to evaluate the influences of situational and personal factors on both safety climate and attitude. The study sample consisted of 166 subjects from three airport companies. Specifically, this research was centered on ground handling departments. The factor analysis of the safety climate instrument resulted in six factors which explained 69.8% of the total variance. We found significant differences in safety attitudes and climate in relation to type of enterprise.

Accidents, Occupational↗
PubMed2002

Perceived safety climate, job demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers.

PROBLEM: This study evaluated injured construction workers' perceptions of workplace safety climate, psychological job demands, decision latitude, and coworker support, and the relationship of these variables to the injury severity sustained by the workers. METHODS: Injury severity was assessed using the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ), which evaluates functional limitations. Worker perceptions of workplace variables were determined by two instruments: (a) the Safety Climate Measure for Construction Sites and (b) the Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ). RESULTS: The overall model explained 23% of the variance in injury severity, with unique contributions provided by union status, the Safety Climate Score, and Psychological Job Demands. A positive significant correlation was found between injury severity and the Safety Climate Scores (r = .183, P = .003), and between the Safety Climate Scores and union status (r = .225, P < .001). DISCUSSION: There were statistically significant differences between union and nonunion workers' responses regarding perceived safety climate on 5 of the 10 safety climate items. Union workers were more likely than nonunion workers to: (a) perceive their supervisors as caring about their safety; (b) be made aware of dangerous work practices; (c) have received safety instructions when hired; (d) have regular job safety meetings; and (e) perceive that taking risks was not a part of their job. However, with regard to the 49-item JCQ, which includes Coworker Support, the responses between union and nonunion workers were very similar, indicating an overall high degree of job satisfaction. However, workers who experienced their workplace as more safe also perceived the level of management (r = -.55, P < .001) and coworker (r = -.31, P < .001) support as being higher. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The findings of this study underscore the critical need for construction managers to alert workers to dangerous work practices and conditions more frequently, and express concern and praise workers for safe work in a manner that is culturally acceptable in this industry. Workplace interventions that decrease the incidence and severity of injuries, but that are flexible enough to meet a variety of potentially competing imperatives, such as production deadlines and client demands, need to be identified.

Accidental Falls↗
PubMed2000

Climate change: potential impact on plant diseases.

Global climate has changed since pre-industrial times. Atmospheric CO(2), a major greenhouse gas, has increased by nearly 30% and temperature has risen by 0.3 to 0.6 degrees C. The intergovernmental panel on climate change predicts that with the current emission scenario, global mean temperature would rise between 0.9 and 3.5 degrees C by the year 2100. There are, however, many uncertainties that influence these predictions. Despite the significance of weather on plant diseases, comprehensive analysis of how climate change will influence plant diseases that impact primary production in agricultural systems is presently unavailable. Evaluation of the limited literature in this area suggests that the most likely impact of climate change will be felt in three areas: in losses from plant diseases, in the efficacy of disease management strategies and in the geographical distribution of plant diseases. Climate change could have positive, negative or no impact on individual plant diseases. More research is needed to obtain base-line information on different disease systems. Most plant disease models use different climatic variables and operate at a different spatial and temporal scale than do the global climate models. Improvements in methodology are necessary to realistically assess disease impacts at a global scale.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2000

Acclimation of photosynthesis to temperature in eight cool and warm climate herbaceous C(3) species: Temperature dependence of parameters of a biochemical photosynthesis model.

To determine how parameters of a Farquhar-type photosynthesis model varied with measurement temperature and with growth temperature, eight cool and warm climate herbaceous crop and weed species were grown at 15 and 25 degrees C and single leaf carbon dioxide and water vapor exchange rates were measured over the range of 15 - 35 degrees C. Photosynthetic parameters examined were the initial slope of the response of assimilation rate (A) to substomatal carbon dioxide concentration (C(i)), A at high C(i), and stomatal conductance. The first two measurements allow calculation of V(Cmax), the maximum rate of carboxylation of ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase and J(max), the maximum rate of photosynthetic electron transport, of Farquhar-type photosynthesis models. In all species, stomatal conductance increased exponentially with temperature over the whole range of 15 - 35 degrees C, even when A decreased at high measurement temperature. There were larger increases in conductance over this temperature range in the warm climate species (4.3 x) than in the cool climate species (2.5 x). The initial slope of A vs. C(i) exhibited an optimum temperature which ranged from 20 to 30 degrees C. There was a larger increase in the optimum temperature of the initial slope at the warmer growth temperature in the cool climate species than in the warm climate species. The optimum temperature for A at high C(i) ranged from 25 to 30 degrees C among species, but changed little with growth temperature. The absolute values of both the initial slope of A vs. C(i) and A at high C(i) were increased about 10% by growth at the warmer temperature in the warm climate species, and decreased about 20% in the cool climate species. The ratio of J(max) - V(Cmax) normalized to 20 degrees C varied by more than a factor of 2 across species and growth temperatures, but differences in the temperature response of photosynthesis were more related to variation in the temperature dependencies of J(max) and V(Cmax) than to the ratio of their normalized values.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2004

Climate as a social-cognitive construction of supervisory safety practices: scripts as proxy of behavior patterns.

Organizational climate research has focused on prediction of organizational outcomes rather than on climate as a social-cognitive mediator between environmental attributes and relevant outcomes. This article presents a model specifying that supervisory safety practices predict (safety) climate level and strength as moderated by leadership quality. Using supervisory scripts as proxy of practices, it is shown that script orientation indicative of safely priority predicted climate level, whereas script simplicity and cross-situational variability predicted climate strength. Transformational leadership mitigated these effects because of closer leader-member relationships. Safety climate partially mediated the relationship between supervisory scripts and injury rate during the 6-month period following climate and script measurement. Theoretical and methodological implications are discussed.

Accidents, Occupational↗
PubMed2006

Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries.

The magnitude and impact of future global warming depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. The commonly accepted range for the equilibrium global mean temperature change in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, termed climate sensitivity, is 1.5-4.5 K (ref. 2). A number of observational studies, however, find a substantial probability of significantly higher sensitivities, yielding upper limits on climate sensitivity of 7.7 K to above 9 K (refs 3-8). Here we demonstrate that such observational estimates of climate sensitivity can be tightened if reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature over the past several centuries are considered. We use large-ensemble energy balance modelling and simulate the temperature response to past solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing to determine which climate sensitivities yield simulations that are in agreement with proxy reconstructions. After accounting for the uncertainty in reconstructions and estimates of past external forcing, we find an independent estimate of climate sensitivity that is very similar to those from instrumental data. If the latter are combined with the result from all proxy reconstructions, then the 5-95 per cent range shrinks to 1.5-6.2 K, thus substantially reducing the probability of very high climate sensitivity.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2006

Stabilizing the earth's climate is not a losing game: supporting evidence from public goods experiments.

Maintaining the Earth's climate within habitable boundaries is probably the greatest "public goods game" played by humans. However, with >6 billion "players" taking part, the game seems to rule out individual altruistic behavior. Thus, climate protection is a problem of sustaining a public resource that everybody is free to overuse, a "tragedy of the commons" problem that emerges in many social dilemmas. We perform a previously undescribed type of public goods experiment with human subjects contributing to a public pool. In contrast to the standard protocol, here the common pool is not divided among the participants; instead, it is promised that the pool will be invested to encourage people to reduce their fossil fuel use. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that players can behave altruistically to maintain the Earth's climate given the right set of circumstances. We find a nonzero basic level of altruistic behavior, which is enhanced if the players are provided with expert information describing the state of knowledge in climate research. Furthermore, personal investments in climate protection increase substantially if players can invest publicly, thus gaining social reputation. This increase occurs because subjects reward other subjects' contributions to sustaining the climate, thus reinforcing their altruism. Therefore, altruism may convert to net personal benefit and to relaxing the dilemma if the gain in reputation is large enough. Our finding that people reward contributions to sustaining the climate of others is a surprising result. There are obvious ways these unexpected findings can be applied on a large scale.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2004

Complexity science and the dynamics of climate and communication: reducing nursing home turnover.

PURPOSE: Turnover in nursing homes is a widespread problem adversely affecting care quality. Using complexity theory, we tested the effect of administrative climate, communication patterns, and the interaction between the two on turnover, controlling for facility context. DESIGN AND METHODS: Perceptions of administrative climate and communication were collected from 3,449 employees in 164 randomly sampled nursing homes, and they were linked to secondary data on facility characteristics, resource allocation, and turnover. We used hierarchical regression to test the hypotheses. RESULTS: Climate and communication both affected turnover, but lower turnover was dependent on the interaction between climate and communication. In nursing homes with reward-based administrative climates, higher levels of communication openness and accuracy explained lower turnover of licensed vocational nurses and certified nurse assistants, relative to nursing homes with an ambiguous climate. Adequate staffing and longer tenure of the nursing director were also important predictors of turnover. IMPLICATIONS: Although context is important, managers can also influence turnover by addressing climate and communication patterns and by encouraging stable nursing leadership.

Communication↗