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SEQUAL: an interactive computer program for sequential classification of biomedical data.

A computer program for sequential bayesian classification of patterns defined by integer and real-valued data is described. Classified patterns from a training sample are used to estimate the non-parametric (kernel) probability density functions and the a-priori class probabilities necessary to implement the bayesian classification. For each pattern and at each step in the sequential program, the 'best' feature to be measured at the next step is computed on the basis of the estimated misallocation error rate. The user can actually use the proposed feature or any other one; once the chosen feature has been measured, its value is used to allocate the pattern into the class with the highest conditional a-posteriori probability, according to the Bayes formula. The main feature of the program consists in the computation of the 'probability of reversal' at each step of the sequential procedure. The probability of reversal represents the probability that at the next step the pattern will be classified into a class different from the present one. The probability of reversal can be used as a stopping criterion, which is more efficient than other commonly used stopping rules, such as the a-posteriori Bayes probability or the estimated misallocation error rate. The program, available in FORTRAN 77 for a VAX/VMS machine, has been tested both on simulated and real data collected from patients suffering from various forms of hepatic disease.

Bayes Theorem

Comparison of Bayesian with group sequential methods for monitoring clinical trials.

We describe some problems with applying methods based on classical sequential analysis to monitoring clinical trials. A Bayesian method is developed and the boundaries are compared with frequentist schemes. For the examples chosen, the Bayesian boundaries can be quite similar to those obtained from Pocock and O'Brien and Fleming (OBF) rules, depending on the choice of prior distribution. They converge less rapidly than OBF's but more rapidly than Pocock's. In general the Bayesian methods provide the same desirable features as frequentist methods, without sacrificing flexibility and simplicity of interpretation.

Bayes Theorem

Analyses of group sequential clinical trials.

In the first part of this article the methodology of group sequential plans is reviewed. After introducing the basic definition of such plans the main properties are shown. At the end of this section three different plans (Pocock, O'Brien-Fleming, Koepcke) are compared. In the second part of the article some unresolved issues and recent developments in the application of group sequential methods to long-term controlled clinical trials are discussed. These include deviation from the assumptions, life table methods, multiple-arm clinical trials, multiple outcome measures, and confidence intervals.

Actuarial Analysis

Kinetic studies of chloride inhibition in aspartate aminotransferase activity.

The inhibitive effects of chloride anion on the activity of mitochondrial aspartate aminotransferase (L-aspartate: 2-oxoglutarate-aminotransferase EC. 2.6.1.1.) from chicken (Gallus domesticus) and turkey (Maleagris gallopavo) were studied. Steady-state velocities were obtained from a wide range of chloride concentrations. The data were fitted by rational functions of 0:2 and 1:2 for chloride, using a non-linear regression program which guaranteed the fit. The goodness of fit was improved by the use of a computer program that combined model discrimination, parameter refinement and sequential design. It was concluded that chloride aspartate aminotransferase inhibition requires a minimum velocity equation of 1:2 with regard to chloride, and a plausible kinetic mechanism for this experimental result was proposed.

Animals

Elimination and replenishment of tricarboxylic acid-cycle intermediates in myocardium.

1. The contribution of Co2 fixation to the anaplerotic mechanisms in the myocardium was investigated in isolated perfused rat hearts. 2. K+-induced arrest of the heart was used to elicit a transition in the concentrations of the intermediates of the tricarboxylic acid cycle. 3. Incorporation of 14C from [14]bicarbonate into tricarboxylic acid-cycle intermediates was measured and the rates of the reactions of the cycle were estimated by means of a linear optimization program which solves the differential equations describing a simulation model of the tricarboxylic acid cycle and related reactions. 4. The results showed that the rate of CO2 fixation is dependent on the metabolic state of the myocardium. Upon a sudden diminution of cellular ATP consumption, the pool size of the tricarboxylic acid-cycle metabolites increased and the rate of label incorporation from [14C]bicarbonate into the cycle metabolites increased simultaneously. The computer model was necessary to separate the rapid equilibration between bicarbonate and some metabolites from the potentially anaplerotic reactions. The main route of anaplerosis during metabolite accumulation was through malate + oxaloacetate. Under steady-state conditions there was a constant net outward flow from the tricarboxylic acid cycle via the malate + oxaloacetate pool, with a concomitant anaplerotic flow from metabolites forming succinyl-CoA (3-carboxypropionyl-CoA).

Animals

Use of the F test for determining the degree of enzyme-kinetic and ligand-binding data. A Monte Carlo simulation study.

1. Initial-rate data were simulated for 13 representative enzyme mechanisms with the use of several distributions of rate constants in order to locate conditions leading to v([S]) curves in physiological ranges of substrate concentration. 2. In all, 420 sets of such v([S]) curves were generated with the use of several choices of substrate concentration range (two, three or four orders of magnitude), number of experimental points (10, 15 or 20), error on v (5-10%) and standard deviation on v (5-9%) in order to simulate experimental results in a number of possible ways. 3. Curve-fitting was carried out to rational functions of degree 1:1, 2:2, . . ., 5:5 until there was no statistically significant decrease in the sum of weighted squared residuals as judged by the F test at 95% and 99% confidence levels. 4. It was checked whether the non-linear regression program had located a good minimum in the sum of squares by also fitting the data with the correct values of parameters as starting estimates. 5. A similar procedure was adopted with 110 sets of binding data simulated for 11 models, and the F test was used to see if fractional-saturation data generated by a binding polynomial of order n could be adequately fitted by one of order m, m less than n. 6. From the 530 simulations the F test was successful in fixing the correct degree with a probability of 0.62 at the 95% confidence level, but this fell with increase in degree as follows: 1:1 (0.98), 2:2 (0.71), 3:3 (0.43) and 4:4 (0.34), the first numbers being the degree of the rate equation and those in parentheses referring to the 95% confidence level. 7. It made little difference whether the 95% or the 99% confidence level was consulted, as there were very few borderline cases. 8. The chance of detecting deviations from Michaelis-Menten kinetics, i.e. terms of at least second-order in a rate equation of degree n:n, n greater than 1, was estimated to be about 0.8. 9. The probability of the F test leading to a spurious result due to error in the data was found to be about 0.04. 10. The probability with which 4:4 mechanisms can lead to v([S]) plots with no, one, two or three turning points was computed, and it was established that there is a small but finite chance that the increase in degree that occurs in some mechanisms when ES in equilibrium EP interconversions are explicitly allowed for can be detected by the F test.

Enzymes

Kinetic mechanism of chicken liver xanthine dehydrogenase.

The kinetic behaviour of chicken-liver xanthine dehydrogenase (xanthine/NAD+ oxidoreductase; EC 1.2.1.37) has been studied. Steady-state results, obtained from a wide range of concentrations of substrates and products, were fitted by rational functions of degree 1:1, 1:2, 2:2 and 3:3 with respect to substrates, and 0:1, 1:1, 0:2 and 1:2 with regard to products, using a non-linear regression program which guarantees the fit. The goodness of fit was improved using a computer program that combines model discrimination, parameter refinement and sequential experimental design. The AIC and F tests were also used for model discrimination. For comparative purposes, the xanthine/oxygen oxidoreductase reaction was also studied. From the functions which give the maximum improvement, the complete rate equation was deduced. The significance of the terms was stated by the above methods. It was concluded that xanthine dehydrogenase requires a minimum mechanism of degree 1:1 for xanthine, 2:2 for NAD+, 1:1 for uric acid and 1:2 for NADH in the xanthine/NAD+ oxidoreductase reaction. These are the minimum degrees required but a rate equation of higher degree is not excluded.

Animals

Kinetic studies of chicken and turkey liver mitochondrial aspartate aminotransferase.

The kinetic behaviour of chicken liver and turkey liver aspartate aminotransferases (L-aspartate:2-oxoglutarate aminotransferase, EC 2.6.1.1) was studied. Steady-state data were obtained from a wide range of concentrations of substrates and product L-glutamate. The data were fitted by rational functions of degree 1:1, 1:2 and 2:2 with respect to substrates and 0:1, 1:1, 0:2 and 1:2 with regard to product (L-glutamate), by using a non-linear regression program that guarantees the fit. The goodness of fit was improved by the use of a computer program that combines model discrimination parameter refinement and sequential experimental design. It was concluded that aspartate aminotransferase requires a minimum velocity equation of degree 2:2 for L-aspartate, 2:2 for 2-oxoglutarate and 1:2 for L-glutamate. Finally, a plausible kinetic mechanism that justifies these experimental results is proposed.

Animals

[Dynamics of egg maturation in the parasitoid Lixophaga diatraeae (Diptera, Tachinidae) raised in a substitute host, Galleria mellonella (Lepidoptera, Pyralidae)].

The content of the uterus and ovaries of L. diatraeae (an ovolarviparous tachinid fly) was studied by dissecting 121 females 0 to 25 days old. Several size classes of flies (p: small; m: medium; g: big) were used, weighing 10 to 12.5 mg, 12.5 to 13.5 mg, and 13.5 to 16 mg, respectively. The mean number of ovarioles per ovary, correlated to female size, was 12.1 for p as against 12.9 for m + g females. The total mean number of eggs and oocytes changed with female age and weight. For 0, 5, 10 and 15-day old females, this number was 56, 149, 158 and 202, respectively in g flies and 51, 128, 141 and 139, respectively, in p ones. To study egg maturation dynamics, we counted the total number of eggs + oocytes per p female (Y1), the eggs in the uterus (Y2), partially embryonated eggs (Y3), and entirely embryonated eggs (Y4). The experimental results were fitted to various age functions using a non-linear adjustment program. The models fitting each datum best were asymptotic functions of the form, Y = A [1-e-K(x-D)], where A is the asymptotic value, K a speed constant of the studied phenomenon and D age at the beginning of the phenomenon. At emergence time, each female contained a mean of 50 oocytes which passed into the uterus immediately after mating. Egg production continued for at least 10 days after emergence. The rate of embryogenesis seemed to be influenced by the number of eggs in the uterus and/or the age of the fly; it was high for the first eggs then decreased progressively. In our conditions, the first eggs with a planidium ready to hatch appeared at 10 days post-emergence. To obtain a maximum number of larvae in good health, it is better to dissect 12 to 18-day old females. The egg volume increases slightly during embryogenesis.

Animals

Disposition of propofol in patients undergoing surgery. A comparison in men and women.

The disposition kinetics of propofol have been determined in 12 patients (six female) receiving propofol 2.5 mg kg-1 for induction of anaesthesia, which was maintained with 67% nitrous oxide in oxygen and 1-1.5% halothane. Peripheral blood samples were collected at selected times up to 8 h after the injection of the drug, and whole blood propofol concentrations determined by HPLC with fluorescence detection. Drug concentration-time data were analysed by the non-linear regression program ELSFIT. This showed the data to be describable by a tri-exponential equation, corresponding to a three-compartment model. There were no differences in the derived kinetic indices for the male and female patients, with the exception of a greater Vdss:V gamma ratio in the males. The terminal half-life in the male patients was 262 min (SEM 44), and in the female patients 309 min (60). Vdss was 329 litre (67) and 313 litre (69) in male and female patients, respectively. The clearance in both groups was 1.8 litre min-1. Seven out of 12 patients showed significant secondary peaks in blood propofol concentration associated with recovery from anaesthesia.

Adult

Evaluation of an index of peripheral vascular resistance in human subjects.

Based on evidence in animal studies, an index of resistance in man has been evaluated. In 10 human subjects, ranging in age from 31 to 60 years, direct brachial arterial pressure was measured, and a computer program using linear regression calculated the index of resistance from the slope of the logarithm of the pressure versus time during the second half of diastole. Resistance was independently calculated from 20-s averages of pressure and cardiac output obtained by thermodilution. Resistance was varied by infusion of phenylephrine and nitroprusside. The values of the index of resistance were compared with independently calculated resistance by linear regression and correlation. The index of resistance was variably correlated with independently calculated resistance. However, when the comparison was limited to points with a model correlation coefficient greater than or equal to 0.98 (i.e. a good fit of a straight line to the logarithm of pressure versus time), the correlation of the index of resistance with calculated resistance approached or exceeded 0.9 in eight of 10 subjects. In the two subjects showing poor correlation of the index with calculated resistance, estimated compliance from the same model was much lower than in the other subjects. In the same two subjects pressure dependence of estimated compliance was much higher than in the other subjects, suggesting the presence of significant atherosclerosis. We concluded that the diastolic decay of pressure may be used to calculate a useful index of resistance, provided that a single exponential decay fits the observed diastolic waveform well, and arterial compliance is not significantly reduced by atherosclerosis.

Adult

Interaction between penicillin and the DD-carboxypeptidase of the unstable L-form of Proteus mirabilis strain 19.

Binding of penicillin to the DD-carboxypeptidase of the unstable spheroplast L-form of Proteus mirabilis results in the rapid formation of a modified enzyme-inhibitor complex which in turn undergoes rapid decay into reactivated enzyme and an antibiotically inactive penicillin degradation product. Major antibiotic metabolites recovered from such interactions were benzylpenicilloic acid and phenoxymethylpenicilloic acid from benzylpenicillin and phenoxymethylpenicillin, respectively, suggesting a second enzymic function of the DD-carboxypeptidase as a penicillinase of low efficiency. Statistical analyses made with the help of a linear regression program show that the enzyme interacts with the substrate UDP-N-acetylmuramoyl-L-alanyl-D-gamma-glutamyl-(L)-meso-2,6-diaminopimelyl-(L)-D-alanyl-D-alanine and either benzympenicillin or carbenicillin in a non-competitive manner.

Carboxypeptidases

Estimate of the number and of the temporal sequence of measurements in a kinetic experiment.

The optimal choice of the number and the temporal sequence of measurements is that which minimizes the expected error on the parameters of the model later used to fit the observations. Practical constraints regarding the feasibility of a given temporal distribution of measurements, cost-benefit ratio as well as prior knowledge about the parameters and their variability in the selected population must be integrated in the decisional process. A non-linear integer programming procedure is used to find reasonable solutions to this problem.

Models, Biological

Human-like dynamic programming neural networks for dynamic time warping speech recognition.

This paper presents a human-like dynamic programming neural network method for speech recognition using dynamic time warping. The networks are configured, much like human's, such that the minimum states of the network's energy function represent the near-best correlation between test and reference patterns. The dynamics and properties of the neural networks are analytically explained. Simulations for classifying speaker-dependent isolated words, consisting of 0 to 9 and A to Z, show that the method is better than conventional methods. The hardware implementation of this method is also presented.

Humans