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Delayed childbearing and its impact on population rate changes in lower birth weight, multiple birth, and preterm delivery.

OBJECTIVE: This study quantified the impact of delayed childbearing (maternal age greater-than-or-equal to 35 years) on population rate changes in low birth weight (LBW; < 2500 g), preterm delivery (< 37 weeks), multiple births, and small for gestational age (SGA; < 10th percentile) in Alberta, Canada, between 1990 (N = 42 930) and 1996 (N = 37 710). METHODS: Data were obtained from the provincial notification of a live or stillbirth. Analyses included relative risk estimates and chi(2) tests for trend. Potential confounding attributable to in vitro fertilization was investigated. RESULTS: The proportion of births to women greater-than-or-equal to 35 years of age was 8.4% in 1990 and 12.6% in 1996, a 51.2% increase. Among these women, LBW delivery increased 11%, and preterm delivery increased 14%. Delayed childbearing accounted for 78% of the change in LBW rate in the population and 36% of the change in preterm delivery rate in the population. Provincial multiple birth rates increased by 15% for twins and 14% for triplets. Delayed childbearing accounted for 15% of the twin increase and 69% of the triplet increase. When in vitro fertilization pregnancies were excluded, the change was 43% for preterm rates, 100% for LBW, 14% for twins, and 9% for triplets. Delayed childbearing did not contribute to changes in singleton SGA deliveries. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that the recent increase in LBW and preterm delivery is partly related to the population phenomenon of delayed childbearing. Maternal age was not related to changes in SGA, suggesting that the age effect is through pregnancy complications that lead to preterm delivery and LBW. Prospective parents should be informed about the higher risk for neonatal morbidity associated with delayed childbearing. Health care providers should be aware of the impact of delayed childbearing on health care resources.

Adult↗

Probabilities for singleton and multiple pregnancies after in vitro fertilization.

OBJECTIVE: To help physicians provide risk estimates for specific pregnancy outcomes. DESIGN: Computation of exact binomial probabilities for singleton and multiple pregnancies as a function of two inputs: the number of embryos transferred and the implantation rate. Inputs were varied over the range of values reported in the literature. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Probabilities for a singleton pregnancy (none), a multiple pregnancy (Pmult), and no pregnancy (Pnone) after one IVF cycle. RESULT(S): Given a 30% implantation rate and three embryos transferred, Pone=.44, Pmult=.22, and Pnone=.34. Although further increasing the number of embryos transferred increases the chance of pregnancy, it also raises the probability of a multiple pregnancy and lowers the chance of a singleton pregnancy. Although varying the implantation rate changes the specific probability estimates, the same trade-off persists. CONCLUSION(S): Those who consider an IVF "success" to be a singleton pregnancy should be attentive to the number of embryos transferred. Infertility therapy may be one area in medicine where more is not necessarily better.

Adult↗

Breast cancer in Greenland--selected epidemiological, clinical, and histological features.

Fifty-seven breast cancers were diagnosed among indigenous Greenlandic women from 1950 to 1974. An additional 22 cases registered between 1975 and 1979 represent a minimum number and were only used as basis for minimum incidence rates. Changes in age-adjusted rate, age-specific incidence pattern, and relative risk were consistent with an upward shift from a population of low risk between 1950 and 1969 to one of intermediate risk from 1970 onward, a finding that relates well to increased urbanization and westernization. The risk of breast cancer in Greenland may be associated with consumption of saturated fats but is seemingly not correlated to total fat intake which has always been on a par with high-risk Danish levels. An association with diet may in reality have been stronger than suggested but weakened by a counterbalancing effect of high fertility, especially in the youngest age groups. Evaluation of histological features and survival did not suggest differences which could favorably compare with findings in white population groups contrary to reported results from the population of Japan, also one of low risk and of mongoloid origin. Further studies should consider dietary intakes, endocrine variations, and breast fluid secretion with special attention to girls at the age of menarche.

Adult↗

Seven-year trends in HIV-1 infection rates, and changes in sexual behaviour, among adults in rural Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: To assess trends in HIV-1 infection rates and changes in sexual behaviour over 7 years in rural Uganda. METHODS: An adult cohort followed through eight medical-serological annual surveys since 1989-1990. All consenting participants gave a blood sample and were interviewed on sexual behaviour. RESULTS: On average, 65% of residents gave a blood sample at each round. Overall HIV-1 prevalence declined from 8.2% at round 1 to 6.9% at round 8 (P = 0.008). Decline was most evident among men aged 20-24 years (11.7 to 3.6%; P < 0.001) and women aged 13-19 (4.4% to 1.4%; P = 0.003) and 20-24 (20.9% to 13.8%; P = 0.003). However, prevalence increased significantly among women aged 25-34 (13.1% to 16.6%; P = 0.04). Although overall incidence declined from 7.7/1000 person-years (PY) in 1990 to 4.6/1000 PY in 1996, neither this nor the age-sex specific rates changed significantly (P > 0.2). Age-standardized death rates for HIV-negative individuals were 6.5/1000 PY in 1990 and 8.2/1000 PY in 1996; corresponding rates for HIV-positive individuals were 129.7 and 102.7/1000 PY, respectively. There were no significant trends in age-adjusted death rates during follow-up for either group. There was evidence of behaviour change towards increase in condom use in males and females, marriage at later age for girls, later sexual debut for boys and a fall in fertility especially among unmarried teenagers. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first general population cohort study showing overall long-term significant reduction in HIV prevalence and parallel evidence of sexual behaviour change. There are however no significant reductions in either HIV incidence or mortality.

Adolescent↗

The family and the reproduction of the population.

"The causes for the lowering of the birthrate below the necessary level for a simple reproduction of society [in the USSR are] sought within the family itself and in the conditions surrounding its existence....The present demographic situation requires the elaboration of a whole program for the development of marital and family relationships and the optimization of population reproduction processes....[Such a program] must encompass the issues of preparing youth for family life, the prestige of the family and its economic status, the optimal distribution of functions among individuals in the family and in society,....[and] the equalization of per capita income levels between one-child and large families...."

Birth Rate↗

Abortion in South Australia, 1971-86: an update.

Official statistics on abortion in South Australia for the period 1971-86 are analysed in terms of incidence, age of patients and nuptiality, reasons for abortion, method of termination, period of gestation, previous abortions and concurrent sterilisation. Demographic implications are discussed and recommendations are made for more education and counselling, especially for younger and unmarried women for whom the incidence of abortion seems to be rising.

Abortion, Induced↗

Trends in the contraceptive practices of women seeking abortions in the 1980s.

The demographic features and contraceptive practices of 1000 women attending Parkview clinic of Wellington Hospital for termination of pregnancy were studied over an eight month period in 1988-9. Comparisons were made with a previous study at the same clinic in 1980-1. The overall abortion rate has increased from 6.8/1000 women in the Wellington statistical area in 1981 to 9.8 in 1989. The proportion of Pacific Island and Asian women presenting for abortions is high and has increased disproportionately between 1981 and 1989. The abortion rate has also increased in lower socioeconomic groups in 1989. The proportion of women using contraception at the time of conception increased from 50% in 1981 to 68.5% in 1989. The methods used by women presenting for abortion have changed significantly. There has been an increase in the proportion of women using condoms (from 13.3% to 36.2%) and the oral contraceptive pill from (14% to 21.4%).

Abortion Applicants↗

Contraceptive paths toward the reduction of unintended pregnancy and abortion.

Based on data from the 1982 National Survey of Family Growth, exposure to the risk of unintended pregnancy is classified by use of specific contraceptive methods and by nonuse, and average rates of unintended pregnancy are estimated for each type of exposure. Three hypothetical models of improved contraceptive practice are then applied to the data for all women and for age, race and marital-status subgroups. The first two models assume increases in the use of some existing contraceptive methods, but only the second model additionally assumes the introduction of new methods. The third model assumes the complete elimination of nonuse of contraception. These models yield different estimates of the reduction in unintended pregnancy rates which are illustrated for various age-groups, for whites and blacks and for married and unmarried women. Among all women aged 15-44, the changes assumed by Model I imply a 32 percent reduction in unintended pregnancy; Model II implies a 56 percent reduction; and Model III implies a 57 percent reduction. The implied reductions in abortion are in a similar range.

Abortion, Induced↗

What will 1984 be like? Socioeconomic implications of recent twists in age structure.

Since 1940, under conditions of restricted immigration and high and sustained growth in aggregate demand, shifts in the relative number of younger versus older adults have had a pervasive impact on American life. Before 1960, younger males were in increasingly short supply and their relative economic position substantially improved; after 1960, the opposite was true. Since the early sixties, as the relative condition of young adults has deteriorated, marriage has been increasingly deferred and fertility reduced. The labor force participation of young women has risen at above average rates, and that of older women has risen at below average rates. Changes in the age structure of the working age population have also contributed to a combination of rising unemployment and accelerating inflation. Cohort divorce rates, suicide among young males, crime rates, and political alienation have worsened. The rise in college enrollment rates has been interrupted, and SAT scores have declined. In contrast, in the period 1940-1960, changes in these various magnitudes were typically of a more favorable sort. The United States is now at the start of a new period of growing scarcity of young adults as a result of the birth rate decline that set in after 1960. This implies that the 1980s will see a turnaround or amelioration in a wide variety of these social, political, and economic conditions, some of which have been taken as symptomatic of a hardening social malaise.

Adult↗

Abortion in the framework of family planning in Estonia.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the legal status of abortion and trends in childbirth, abortions and contraceptive use in Estonia. DESIGN: National statistical data on induced abortions, spontaneous abortions, births and contraceptive use in Estonia. RESULTS: Even though induced abortion is legal in Estonia, the abortion rate has been declining but is still high and in 1994 was 53.8 per 1000 women of fertile age. Among young women under 20 years of age, abortions decreased slightly in the period 1992-94 (from 55.5 to 41.5 per 1000). The birth rate has been declining rapidly in recent years, resulting in a net population reduction. The use of modern contraceptives is increasing but is still low. CONCLUSION: Survey on abortion and on contraceptive sales and use are needed. To improve family planning and prevent unwanted pregnancies it is important to increase awareness among the entire population--and especially among young people--by information, education and communication. A high standard of counseling, including pre- and postabortion counseling and in the youth services, is essential.

Abortion, Induced↗